Asia (India and China) does not really need Russian oil (and natural gas) ...
They will buy it if the prices are attractive for buying, but in fact they do not really need Russian oil. This is due to the availability of alternative sources of energy resources and the structure of the economies of these countries, as well as to a warmer climate.
The main consumers of Russian gas and oil are European countries. Therefore, the conflict with European countries is a very stupid and insane action. Currently, Russia receives a lot of money from the sale of oil and gas (due to rising world energy prices).
However, in such a business, the main thing is to maximize the supply of goods. The most important thing here is the struggle for the volume of the market.
This is what affects Russia's income in the long run.
You build all your assumptions on an initially false premise, so you draw the wrong conclusions. |
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Oh, yeah, once you recover from this clusterfuck, allocate 20% of your GDP to the military, join NATO, and obtain nuclear weapons.
Ukraine had excellent starting conditions after the collapse of the USSR, the best of all the union republics. Favorable geographical location, fertile land, developed industry, strong army and navy, resorts, sanatoriums, nuclear energy, no debts. And in just 30 years, you screwed up everything, ended up in complete shit, in a state of bankruptcy. And of course, anyone is to blame for this, but not Ukraine itself. Amazing infantilism. ps Biden says Ukraine might have to give Russia land in ‘negotiated settlement’ |
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Like Elon talked about we need just a corner of Utah levels of space to provide electricity to ALL of USA, and yet we are not doing it, why? Or we do not need a whole field for farming, we could do hydroponics and use much smaller land and produce much more product and even more times as well since we decide on the weather there so instead of 2 times a year, you get 4. Why not do that? Because people just don't, they don't and that is the only reason ever.
Agriculture has already made a huge technological leap in recent decades, although this is not advertised too much for the layman. There is a lot of progress in ultra-bright LEDs and agricultural robotics, but two factors are key - the massive transition to high-yielding hybrid seeds and the massive use of inorganic fertilizers. The disadvantage of hybrid varieties is that they are not stable and seeds have to be bought every year in seed banks. The disadvantage of chemical fertilizers is that now they are very expensive due to expensive gas and sanctions restrictions on Russia and Belarus. The transition to organic fertilizers is possible, but the yield will decrease markedly. The transition to resistant varieties that do not degenerate in the next generation is also possible, but the yield will again decrease markedly. Markedly - means at times, and this is a problem on the scale of humanity. |
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Information as of May 16, but no fundamental changes have occurred over the past 2 weeks
With the exception of the mass surrender of Azov fighters in Mariupol lol. After that, the Armed Forces of Ukraine significantly lost morale and combat effectiveness in the Donbas, and the defense there actually crumbled. A military analyst of you is so-so.  |
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Politically biased? Let's tell an educational program  So, what is this "political engagement"? This is how it is interpreted in Russian-language sources: POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT - an expression used to emphasize the political coloring of someone's position or sympathies. For example, evaluating a speech as politically engaged means that the speaker pursued a certain political line, or expressed his sympathy for certain ideas, or generally fulfilled someone's social order, etc. And now tell me - where is the political bias in my question? Did I express any sympathy? emphasized the poly-secret coloration? Not ! I just cited a few facts that, with a non-zero probability, can be in many countries with different political structures. But vyf perfectly understood in which country these events are in full set and constantly occur In general, there is no need for a better answer, thank you! Anyone who reads your messages will easily notice that you are strongly politically biased in favor of Ukraine. So much so that there is a possibility that you are an employee of the center of information and psychological operations. I'm not blaming you for this, just stating a fact. And about normal, high-quality products - what about Russia, which has "the largest resources in the world", a problem with high-quality products? Or do they not bring normal products to your region? Since 2014, Russia has spent a lot of effort to strengthen its food security and has achieved notable results in this matter. But they never learned how to make good cheese, cheese from Belarus is tastier. |
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This is not true, the Central Bank of Russia does not prohibit the sale or purchase of dollars and euros, currently there are no such restrictions in Russia. Restrictions on the import of cash currency exist on the part of the United States and the European Union.
What you are right about is that the dollar and the euro are now considered a scam in Russia.
"Moscow. May 19. INTERFAX.RU - From May 20, 2022, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation allowed banks to sell any cash foreign currency to citizens without restrictions, except for US dollars and euros, the regulator said. Restrictions on the sale of cash dollars and euros remain." Tell me - does the Central Bank give permission to banks in Russia or YOU? It seems to me that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is trying to denigrate and frame you! Please tell him his place, I'm on your side! The nature of these restrictions on cash dollars and euros is EU and US sanctions on the import of cash into Russia, and not the desire of the Central Bank to somehow restrict Russian citizens from buying cash dollars and euros. |
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1. Tell me - are you all right with arithmetic? I don’t want to offend you .. but 2/3 of 100% of the market is about 67%. Those. In your opinion, Russia, which supplied 30% of neon to the world market, is this equal to 67%? Are you seriously ? But I will support you in your remark - let's see how the market will be rebuilt in connection with another fact proving the unpredictability of Russia as a supplier. Ukraine stopped supplying neon to the market at the very beginning of the special operation. The share of Ukraine was about 40% and then became zero. Russia's share was about 30% and has now also dropped sharply due to the export ban. As a result, just about two-thirds of the total fell out, everything is in order with arithmetic. You may also be interested to know that Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian. For the production of microelectronics, high-purity neon is needed. |
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For a hundred days of the operation, the Russian army clearly showed the West its combat capability. The West has focused too much on counter-terrorist operations in recent decades and has forgotten how to fight on a full scale. Russia has Poseidons and Sarmatians, Zircons and Daggers on combat duty - and the West has no methods how to counteract them. I do not see any real prospects in the feasibility of your plans.
I maintain my suspicion that Russia has little or no interest in any area but the East and Southern seaboard. As they take control of real estate in these areas of interest they are just integrated into the Russian federation with massive support of the locals. As I've said before, the ZioNazi presence for 8 years was a big advantage to Russia over and above simple cultural and language demographics. The Russian speaking Ukrainians I knew had zero use for Russia so either most of the people in that category already left, or changed their minds after the neocon color revolution and installation of neo-nazi terrorists from 2014 till early 2022. I mean there are waiting lines around the block for people to get their Russian passports. The establishment by Russia of control over the Donbas and the South of Ukraine is now only a matter of time. Arms deliveries by the West already look more like symbolic gestures than real help. Numerous replacements from the defense are simply not ready to fight, and the most combat-ready parts of Ukraine have already been ground in a meat grinder in the Donbas. I do not think that Russia will stop there, I think Russia will solve the issue with Ukraine systematically and comprehensively. |
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^^^^ Gazprom has cut supplies only to Orsted (Danmark). They haven't cut any of their supplies to Germany or Netherlands. And in any case the exports to Danmark was minimal, as it is a very small country. Shell's contract to supply Russian gas to Germany stands cancelled, but it represents a small share of overall exports to that country. And as per the latest figures from Gazprom, they exported 61 billion cubic meters of gas to countries outside the former Soviet Union for the first five months of this year. This represents a decline of 27.6%, but due to the increased prices Gazprom has earned 10x more revenues when compared to the same period last year.
I was reading in news that Gazprom has cut off gas supply to Netherlands and Germany. Moreover supply to shell will also be suspended as shell is refusing to pay in Russian national currecny. This conflict is now more about who will buy Russian oil and gas, little attention is paid to end this conflict. From my point of view, the more interesting news for today, although little noticed, is the restriction on the export of inert gases (argon, neon, etc.) from Russia. They seem to be used in the production of microelectronics or something. This is a non-obvious and rather strong lever of Russia's influence on the world economy. About inert gases. An alternative could be supplies from Ukraine Only one of the companies producing such gases can put on the market: Neon - 70,000 m3, Xenon - 480 m3, Krypton - 6000 m3, Argon - 12,000 tons . I will clarify - Ukraine provides about half of the world's demand for neon For other gases, Russia supplies no more than 30% to the market. I do not think that this will cause global problems. Temporary - I agree. But Russia will always lose this market as well. Understand that imposing restrictions from the normal world in relation to terrorists is just a search for replacement. And the restrictions on the part of terrorists on the sale of their resources, which were in demand by the world, is a loss of the market. Like it or not, it's a fact Let's see what the reaction of the market will be to the loss of two-thirds of the total volume of neon at once. More interesting news: FT: UK to ban insurance for ships carrying Russian oil The UK and the EU have agreed to a ban on insuring ships carrying Russian oil. It is reported by the Financial Times. Thus, Russia will be deprived of access to the vital insurance market of Lloyd's of London. This means that Moscow's ability to export crude oil will be severely limited, and Russian suppliers will have to look for an alternative to British insurance in other, smaller markets. The ban on insurance of oil ships has become part of the sixth package of EU sanctions, writes the Financial Times. As the newspaper notes, such a decision will also increase pressure on global oil markets. Do you know what that means? I think this means that Europe is trying to fence itself off from Russia with an iron curtain, although this directly threatens its own energy security. The lease of a tanker for the transportation of liquefied gas has already increased by a third from 80 to 120 thousand dollars per day with a contract for a year. |
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Sorry, but every time when visit stores and see shelves full with food, employees running there and there to replenish shelves supplies, see pallets with food behind stock doors, I cant understand what is this "food crisis" everyone is talking about. Some might think that I am stupid, naive, too young and never saw real life and etc, but I dont see starving people around me. What we complaint about lately? Wheat? Can we eat other food instead? Or wheat is a direct or indirect ingredient of every other food? I think no.
It seems that up to 90% of wheat is used in animal husbandry and only 10% is used to make bread, flour, cereals and spaghetti. The production of pork and chicken is highly dependent on wheat, which is the basis of the diet in many regions of the world. |
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The HIMARS are on the way. Don't worry, brothers. The first four are already in Europe, and they are meant for training purposes. Later, when our soldiers will learn to operate HIMARS, we'll be receiving dozens of them until the invaders will run off of our land. There's no two ways about it. It's important for the whole world to see that an attempt to change the government of another sovereign country by force fails.
The Javelins didn't help, the Bayraktars didn't help, the M777s didn't help, but multiple launch rocket systems will definitely help. A good plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch. Actually they did help. Russians were pushed out and weren't able to take Kiev. At this point the more Russians die in this war the better for Ukrainians and the numbers keep growing. If a weapon can add to that number it's always good to have it. This is a good piece. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIZIspwem2sI was amazed how young squad commanders are. This guy was a total newbie and apparently finished one of the best military schools in Russia. His superior's vehicle was hit and he didn't know what to do, what date it is, how to proceed. -shit they are shooting at us -shoot them -the gun is stuck -let's run away and hide Javelins and bayraktars are a waste of money here. These guys just want to get drunk and sleep in a warm bed. I prefer not to lose sight of the forest by looking at the trees. It seems that Russia's strategy in advancing in the Donbas is slow but effective. The main work is done by drones and artillery with the support of front-line aviation, and armored vehicles and assault squads then clean up the area. Yesterday Kadyrov met with Shoigu and reported on the development of new, more effective and faster tactics. Russia broke all Minsk agreements with Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022.
When dealing with Russia, the "guarantees on paper" are worth less than the paper they are written on.
The West needs to understand that this conflict needs to be resolved militarily not only in Ukraine.
As long as the Russian regime is not defeated, this aggression will continue in other countries.
Russian military needs to be defeated, Moscow needs to be captured, and all Russian nuclear weapons need to be disarmed and deactivated.
For a hundred days of the operation, the Russian army clearly showed the West its combat capability. The West has focused too much on counter-terrorist operations in recent decades and has forgotten how to fight on a full scale. Russia has Poseidons and Sarmatians, Zircons and Daggers on combat duty - and the West has no methods how to counteract them. I do not see any real prospects in the feasibility of your plans. |
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It seems the current era will be defined by the polar opposite to QE (quantitative easing) which they are calling QT (quantitative tightening). With a claimed $95 billion a month in reduced federal reserve bond holdings. With the fed officially being recognized as one of the largest holders of US bonds, that shift could have a significant affect on markets.
I think the US government will soon have serious debt servicing problems. If the Fed is actively selling bonds, someone will have to buy them actively as well. In terms of inflation, this is a guaranteed loss of money, plus sanctions risks due to the freezing of money by the Central Bank of Russia. It is unlikely that China will do this, probably Europe will have to finance the cash gap due to the large budget deficit in the US, but it has its own financial difficulties. |
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The question is simple, but tell me - where is dissent really considered a crime, and for any disagreement with the "only true point of view" - are people detained and given very real terms of imprisonment? And massively, for no reason, on far-fetched pretexts, and even for simply reading the Constitution of the country in which you live? Well, or oppose the war and the killing of civilians? Where are all state channels (and there are no others) around the clock promoting terrorism and calling for the destruction of neighboring countries that do not want to be friends of this country? Where the army does not serve the people, protecting them according to the constitution, but a bunch of kleptomaniac maniacs, and carry out their criminal orders, killing citizens of other countries, because that bunch of kleptomaniac terrorists do not like a different way of life in another country? Can you name such a country? Offhand, the first thing that comes to mind is, of course, Ukraine. Zelensky banned any opposition and got rid of all politically significant competitors. And the army of Ukraine does not protect its people, but uses them as human shields, acting like terrorists. But of course you meant something else, for example Lukashenko or Putin? I live in the Urals, in a small town on the shores of a large beautiful lake. There are many trees and nice architecture. Modern cars drive along the streets, there is public transport, a taxi for 120 rubles (about two dollars) will take you to any address within the city. Although I prefer walking or cycling. Unlimited Internet 150 Mbps costs 390 rubles per month (about $7). Crime is almost non-existent as a genre, there are no bars on the windows of the houses, I leave my bike on the street near the house and no one wants to steal it. People here know about terrorists or mass shooting only on TV from the news about the USA. Why go to protest rallies, what should I protest against? Why should I try to change a system that works quite well in practice?
... but to answer my question, and to name the countries where the described events regularly occur, did not have the courage!? expected Decided to boast as an "achievement" or an indicator of the best well-being, what is already considered normal for others? And of course - if there is Internet for $ 7 - that's it, life is good! By the way, I didn’t talk about any protests, I talked about the persecution of any dissent (reread the previous posts), the lack of legality, totalitarianism, the criminality of the authorities ... But you have Internet for $ 7, how stupid I am with such questions against the background of such global advantage! Unfortunately, I do not know the slang expression for translation, for your status, which we call "merged" PS. But these figures about cheap taxis and cheap Internet - is that all you are proud of? In Kyiv, an unlimited package that I have at home - 1Gb / sec (Ukraine) + 500 Mb (worldwide) + IPTV (about 200 very high-quality channels) costs 288 UAH, or $ 8 Taxi is absolutely affordable. But there is also municipal, convenient transport, and no one has canceled personal transport! I live in Kiva, the apartment is located in a complex, which is located in the middle of the park, and from the window the park area starts 15 meters away. At 50 meters from the rear exit, there is a seating area + barbecue area. Windows in all rooms, except one, and a balcony overlook the forest. In the park area of the lake, ducks, hedgehogs, squirrels, even a beaver lives Birds sing beautifully from early morning. Convenient transport interchange is not far at all, the metro is a 10-minute walk, many types of municipal and commercial transport, its own parking on the territory of the complex. But I'm not proud of it, I think it's normal and natural, and I don't think it's something outstanding I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories and I try to stay close to reality in my life (because life is good and illusions tend to disappoint). The wording of your questions seems strange and politically biased to me, which is at least inappropriate in the section on the economy. The attempt of the opposition in Belarus in the last elections was audacious and almost successful, but it failed. Personally, I consider Lukashenko to be quite a cool European dictator who, while maintaining the originality and self-identity of his people, is pursuing a quite reasonable pro-Russian policy. Recently, several shops with Belarusian products have appeared in my city at once and they sell all kinds of delicious food at reasonable prices - cheeses, apple cider, marmalade, marshmallows, etc. I like Belarus, maybe some civil liberties are missing there, but from the Russian side it looks quite harmonious. |
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Some of the regimes have already fallen as a result of rising crude and wheat prices. I can give examples of Pakistan and Sri Lanka. And even strong countries such as Turkey are under strain due to rising trade deficit. My own country (India) have somehow survived this crisis, but there is no guarantee that the situation will continue in case the prices remain at elevated levels for a long time. Government has reduced taxes on petrol and diesel to make them more affordable, and the oil PSUs are incurring a loss of around Rs.20 per liter.
As far as I know, the problems in Sri Lanka are related to the failed attempt to return to organic farming, with the rejection of high-yielding hybrid seeds and chemical fertilizers. What worked well on a small eco-farm did not work well when trying to scale up to the whole country. Perhaps the moment for this risky experiment, which was superimposed by the negative effect of the pandemic, was simply unsuccessfully chosen. In general, returning to the topic, I would not throw a tantrum over 20 million tons of wheat stuck in Ukraine. The figure seems huge, but on a global scale it is about three percent of wheat production, and fits within the margin of error from year to year, depending on yield and natural factors. |
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The HIMARS are on the way. Don't worry, brothers. The first four are already in Europe, and they are meant for training purposes. Later, when our soldiers will learn to operate HIMARS, we'll be receiving dozens of them until the invaders will run off of our land. There's no two ways about it. It's important for the whole world to see that an attempt to change the government of another sovereign country by force fails.
The Javelins didn't help, the Bayraktars didn't help, the M777s didn't help, but multiple launch rocket systems will definitely help. A good plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch. |
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That a country exports more than it imports could suggest a lot of things. Yes, it could be seen as a good arrangement. But it could also be seen as bad.
In Russia's case, the economy is largely dependent on crude oil, petroleum, gas, and coal that it exports to other countries. In this arrangement, partners are everything. The moment these partner countries say, we're not accepting your products anymore, is also the moment the economy suffers.
Freezing accounts and economic sanctions by the US and the EU against Russia are hostile actions, friends and partners do not act like that. And the way Russia is behaving right now, it is losing a lot of country friends, most of which are trade partners. China could increase its demand and it has already done so in the face of sanctions imposed on Russia, but is it enough to make up for the entire EU's demand?
China and India will buy all free energy resources from Russia, and Europe will freeze next winter and be left without industry. |
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From my point of view, the more interesting news for today, although little noticed, is the restriction on the export of inert gases (argon, neon, etc.) from Russia. They seem to be used in the production of microelectronics or something. This is a non-obvious and rather strong lever of Russia's influence on the world economy. That one was a tit-for-tat measure. As a result of sanctions, there are restrictions on the import of microchips to Russia. And in retaliation, Russia banned the export of inert gases (they supply 30% of the global output), without which the microchip manufacturing can't proceed. There is already an acute shortage in the microchip market, and this latest move is going to make it much worse. Apart from Russia, Ukraine also used to be one of the leading suppliers of inert gases. But their output is also down, as a result of war. As far as I understand, Russia controls 30% of the supply of neon and another 40% was controlled by Ukraine, and the remaining 30% is controlled by China. Now Ukraine does not control anything and the price of neon has increased nine times. In principle, it is possible to replace the dropped supplies, neon is a by-product of steel production, but this is not instantaneous, energy-intensive and not environmentally friendly. |
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Yep, Ukraine mined the way out of Odessa, fearing a Russian landing. This was announced in early March by the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on his Facebook page. Later, of course, Ukraine tried to blame everything on Russia, but it didn’t work out. I beg your pardon - as always, you pulled out a piece of text, and now you also lied, saying that you had mined the Black Sea area! And all in order to try once again to justify the world terrorist - Russia! And it's easy to prove, very simple! 1. Ukraine mined by setting "minefields", but ... COAST and COASTAL zone (up to 1 km, from the coastline), so that the landing force could not set foot on the ground, and not disrupt maritime traffic throughout the region. 2. Ukraine did not mine the coastal zone with free-floating mines. Items 1 and 2 are verbatim in the FB post you linked to. I quote verbatim the entire description of the warning so that everyone can see your next "cute", but primitive lie So, the original phrases sound like this: The coastal defense system includes the mining of certain territories (not the water area), where the enemy can make an amphibious landing. Therefore, we ask you NOT to MOVE along the territory of the COAST (this is the land part) of the Odessa region. It's not safe for your life. We urge fishermen and boats not to move NEAR the SHORE of the Odessa region, so as not to put themselves at risk, and not to fall under possible fire and minefields. And most importantly, Ukraine used anchor mines to mine the COAST, because. near the coast, there is often noticeable excitement and currents, and free-floating mines will leave the mining zone in a few days and will not fulfill their main goal - protecting a given territory. Yes, well, and the best proof is that by marking the mines that were found off the coast of Turkey and Romania, it easily became clear that these were mines that were located in the warehouses of the Ukrainian Navy in Crimea, and were captured by Russian terrorists back in 2014, during the occupation of Crimea . I told you - do not try to lie primitively, and even referring to the source that you misrepresented, having previously pulled out a small part of the information. Not a very nice act for an adult! In the dialogue of adults, it is customary not to count the arguments, but to weigh them. I provided a prooflink, and you issued a long-winded and unfounded tirade in response, falsely accusing me of distorting the facts. Do not do it this way. Ukraine mined the entrance to Odessa with old mines, which were torn from anchors during a storm and scattered across the Black Sea. Your accusations of Russia in this are groundless. ps By the way, according to one of the versions, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser Moscow, was blown up on such a mine torn from the anchor. |
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^^^^ Gazprom has cut supplies only to Orsted (Danmark). They haven't cut any of their supplies to Germany or Netherlands. And in any case the exports to Danmark was minimal, as it is a very small country. Shell's contract to supply Russian gas to Germany stands cancelled, but it represents a small share of overall exports to that country. And as per the latest figures from Gazprom, they exported 61 billion cubic meters of gas to countries outside the former Soviet Union for the first five months of this year. This represents a decline of 27.6%, but due to the increased prices Gazprom has earned 10x more revenues when compared to the same period last year.
I was reading in news that Gazprom has cut off gas supply to Netherlands and Germany. Moreover supply to shell will also be suspended as shell is refusing to pay in Russian national currecny. This conflict is now more about who will buy Russian oil and gas, little attention is paid to end this conflict. From my point of view, the more interesting news for today, although little noticed, is the restriction on the export of inert gases (argon, neon, etc.) from Russia. They seem to be used in the production of microelectronics or something. This is a non-obvious and rather strong lever of Russia's influence on the world economy. |
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I agree that now it will be difficult to establish a stable and full-scale supply of grain by land (railway) transport. Yes, the largest importers of Ukrainian grain are the countries of Asia, Africa and partly the countries of Europe. That is why Russia, as a typical terrorist, introduced from the first days of a new wave of aggression against Ukraine, a total blockage of shipping. Therefore, all the countries affected by the shortage of grain can "thank" the international terrorist represented by Russia. But Ukraine still, even in such a difficult situation, will try to fulfill its obligations. Now everyone is starting to "pay" for the fact that they did not stop the terrorists and new fascists in a timely manner. The world repeated the mistakes of the last century, trying to appease the evil, and allowing him "little pranks". The world has learned nothing, and now it pays for mistakes again
Its Ukraine that blocked their Oddesa ports, its a self inflicted sanction actually as they tried to drop their sea mines and it all scattered on their ports so everyone are now afraid to sail there. Mind you that Russia didn't got their Oddesa ports yet and its where they ship their grains too. There's still two months for all of us to prepare. I guess the hunger will make decisions cloudier. But there's also Asia that has more rice which I think will be the best option, we can all be adventurous with out meals. Yeah... Wow!? Ukraine... blocked in the Ukrainian city... Ukrainian ports with RUSSIAN mines, so that Ukraine could not sell grain... and get the much needed funds? No offense - are you feeling well now? Am I kidding? Maybe you have an intoxication of mentality by the Russian media? It happens ! Speaking of mines - if you read the reports, several mines made it to the Bosphorus, where they were discovered and identified. I'll tell you a secret - there are a lot of weapons in Russia, which only they have. These weapons also include these "wandering mines", which Russia, at the beginning of its terrorist aggression against Ukraine, threw into the Black Sea in Ukrainian waters, about 450 pieces. They have already been discovered off the coast of Turkey, Romania, and, logically, on the coast of Ukraine. Moreover, the navy of Russian terrorists has closed the passage of civilian and any other ships in the Black Sea, including the waters of Ukraine. This is called economic terrorism. Yep, Ukraine mined the way out of Odessa, fearing a Russian landing. This was announced in early March by the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on his Facebook page. Later, of course, Ukraine tried to blame everything on Russia, but it didn’t work out. |
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