Really strange calculations, but in theory it can happen to us, but on practice it will not happen, cause increasing from $600 to $4000 is unreal.
Yeah i agree with you. With the current price right now, it's impossible to reach $4000 when the halving come. The price of bitcoin is stable right now. Bitcoin has "stable" periods in between wildly unstable ones. Taking a macroscopic view of the price history of bitcoin, there is nothing stable about it. Don't be lulled into the mistake of thinking the current "stability" is a new normal. Bitcoin has never settled into a stable range for any prolonged period of time. |
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Bitcoin is already an international currency,but only in the internet.
We wont see it change to really "international currency" but im sure the online shopping
will be done by bitcoins after some years,maybe 10 or something.
I don't see how. Btc is not recognized by states and will never be. It's just not possible because it would destroy current fiat system. yeah fiat will always win against anyone because fiat in backing by government but bitcoin goal is not to take over the position of fiat but it is an option not a bad thing. the important thing is bitcoin received in almost all countries that fact because I could see the users of various countries in bitcoin Government backing doesn't give something worth. Everyone's consensus as to what is valuable is what gives something worth. It's merely a confidence game. As proof, look at any country that suffered through hyperinflation. The government was saying the currency had value, but prices rose out of control because nobody using the money believed it had value. The opposite is true of gold currently, where most governments do not recognize it as acceptable currency (does not having the backing of the government, that is), yet gold still has value because everyone agrees it does and is comfortable with that idea. |
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Okay, will the next halving really matter? All i see is people talking about it and waiting to happen, "the price will rise", "to the moon". But what will really happen after the halving?
Right now, there are about 15 million Bitcoins "alive". The Bitcoin cap is 21 millions. So it is true, the block reward will get sliced to half, but there will be only 6 million Bitcoins left to mine. And because of this, i dont think the price will rise by that much.
My predictions would be:
1. Everyone waiting for the price increase after halving
2. Price increase doesnt happen
3. PANIC
4. ...
So this is just my opinion. Please post yours in the replys. What do you expect after halving and why?
Halving is already finished but there are no panic selling but the price remains the same. But it is true that people expect a price increase during halving since it happened last halving but it did not today. This time the price of bitcoin will remind all bitcoin users that halving has no control or the primary cause of price inflation. So next halving we are already aware that halving is not equal s to price increase. The price more than doubled (almost tripled) between August of last year and the halving. Whether or not you want to attribute that price increase specifically to the halving is an issue to be determined, but it seems likely that it is. If you were waiting for the price to double after the halving, you don't understand that markets are forward-looking and people anticipate and make moves to profit ahead of an event like the halving, not after. Whether or not the price sticks at this level is another issue. It could be that the price doubled as a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because every believed it would. This price level has to hold up to the new economics of the mining now, and it will likely not be known quickly how that shakes out. It may take several months before we know if the halved rewards are forcing miners out of the mining market, and what affect that will have on the price of btc. |
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All time low since ipo (May/APR 16) was less than $7.50.
- If Ether goes down, then the possible hacker is losing too
- The best solution is to show some respect and give those coins back -> then soft fork
If the Ethereum price drop to that level, and bounce back, that could be a good sign for the future price. The Ethereum price is fluctuating around the $11 level at the moment. People are uncertain about the future. I think it is better to enter the Ethereum market after the halving. If the stolen DAO is returned, it will rise. HF confirmed. So stolen ETH will now be rightfully unstolen. Consensus vote from the ETH community. How is it "unstolen" exactly? Is this similar to a software rollback in the blockchain somehow? |
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Your losses?  You make 7-16btc daily with your dice game. You said you pay up to 4btc daily for your users so you will still have 3-12btc profit every day. Profits from the dice game are much lower, at the moment they only about cover the payouts. Does this take into account overhead or how does this factor exactly? With a 5% house edge, and based on the number of rolls this site gets (which reduces variance and smoothes out user luck, which can be lumpy), shouldn't the profit margin on the dice game be relatively close to 5%? |
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I don't know. I'm pretty sure I am done with this site. It has taken a massive turn down the shady side IMO. I have used this site for almost 3 years now and it is the only 'faucet' I have used in a long time because it paid well and the rolls win % were actually pretty close to what the site said.
Now, since the site was updated the other week, hourly payouts are crap and with a weekly payout limit of 25000 means that someone rolling the smallest amount would have to roll 86 times in one week to get a payout. That means that they need to roll 12 hours each day to get your goal of 25000 in one week.. Before this change, with the 10k weekly payout I was able to meet it in about 20-30 rolls.. Also now after each hourly roll you get that annoying popup shows every time. Obviously you want people to roll and give you back the btc they won. Which leads me to the multiply btc part..
Before whatever on the site changed (for 2 years probably), my win % used to be pretty close to that 47.5% until the other week when the site was updated. Now it is at like 34% win rate over the past 40 rolls. Even the roll history isnt correct. I rolled 5 times this morning, won the first roll and lost the following 4 rolls but the site only shows my win, while my balance is at 0. Sure it could just be crap luck.
And yes, i know what you are going to say "Its a faucet, what do you expect? its based off btc price!" and yes, I know that but with the 10+ ads shoved in your face every hour, plus the miniscule hourly payout now, plus the "C'mon and multiply that btc!", plus the 25000 weekly payout. You have no choice but to attempt to roll your winnings in order to get the payout that week. Unless you happen to have 86 hours available each week to roll or you get lucky and win more than the lowest. I run several ad-supported websites do i know with all those ads the site probably makes some decent change per user. I dont use those advertisers, but still..
Yes im ranting, but ive been a fan of this site for a long time and that has all change recently.
I just want to point out that a 34% win rate over 40 rolls is a ridiculously small sample size. Any select number of rolls is going to have a degree of variance, and the smaller the sample size, the higher the likelihood of variance. You can only draw a conclusion about the win rate over a very, very large number of rolls; in the tens of thousands at a minimum. |
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It's coming
i dont get all these prediction's,one say it will be 20k usd in 2020, someone else claims that we will have 350$ in august. The price is not going to go down that much,we may see drop but not that big. Why? State the reason to support your prediction, otherwise there's nothing to evaluate. Everyone buying in 2012 and 2013 all thought the price wouldn't drop either, even though it did. A few years ago he price dropped from 1200 and didn't stop until it was in the low 200s. A drop to 350 from this level would not be a major drop compared to that. |
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It seems like that bitcoin is like an antique the older it gets the higher its value. Your comparison of bitcoin to sports cards is explained in a clear and logical manner. But there is a missing piece bitcoin is not a card and a collectible item but a currency. Sports card has no potential to be a legal tender but bitcoin as a currency does. Sports cards can ba manufactured in an unlimited way but bitcoin does a limit. Though there are similarities but their differences is great that will make their future not the same.
Bitcoin is less than half the price it was a few years ago. It does not only get more valuable with time. It's highly volatile and regularly swings up and down wildly. And secondly, Bitcoin hardly qualifies as a currency because it does not satisfy the stable store of value component of money. The fact that you don't know with any reasonable certainty how much your bitcoin's will be worth in 30 days is a pretty meaningful argument against Bitcoin being a viable currency. |
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99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?
At that time the block reward for miners is somewhere at 0.390625 BTC which is pretty low comparing with today's reward. 20 years from now the price should much higher to see miner still mining. That's kind of the problem, the price has to be higher or else the system breaks down. If the price doesn't rise, there won't be enough miners to ensure enough decentralization to make it secure. To offset, fees have to rise to keep miners in, but fees can't rise to the point where Bitcoin is too expensive to use either. Cheap, efficient, and safe are the main draws to Bitcoin at the moment, and it doesn't seem like a viable alternative if any of those elements start to break down. |
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What if somebody will make a huge dump and sell it all the way to earn some profits because of this rally in bitcoin,and someone sees it and do that same thing. Is there any effect on bitcoin when someone to this,?
You just described the worlds stock market  yes - it goes down. then it comes back up, then it goes down. Roller coaster of fear and greed The difference between the stock market and Bitcoin is that stocks represent ownership in an underlying business that enervates profits. As an owner of that business, the stockholder is entitled to a share of those profits. Bitcoin is merely an asset. It doesn't generate any income. We can agree that bitcoin is not linked to a product,but it is somewhat linked to a service - it is not only an asset, but blockchain can act like database, for example for notary purposes. Plus - bitcoin is highly unstable to begin with, which can generate income if you trade it, in the same manner as stocks trading. Yes, but the applications of storing data on the Bitcoin blockchain is extremely limited. There are alt coins entirely premised on this possibility, and it's unlikely to me that Bitcoin would play a major role in that in its current form. But agree on the unstable nature of Bitcoin. The volatility is what attracts speculators and gamblers who seek to profit on the wild swings, but this is antithetical to bitcoin's growth as a currency, which requires it to be a stable store of value to have any real use as a currency. |
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350$ is very very low,it will kill miners,price is stable now,but crash on eu banks is real,and presidential election in USA is coming,Trump has chance to win,we will have crazy time on btc
It will take a bit of time for things to shake out with the new block rewards before we know what impact it will have on mining. In theory, the drop in rewards should make mining unprofitable for a large chunk of old miners, and should drive them out of the market. Difficulty will fall in response and a new equilibrium reached. In theory. it'll be interesting to see if this does indeed happen. |
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While I agree that bitcoin might not be killed, I don't believe that a more advanced alternative blockchain couldn't overtake the utility and liquidity of bitcoin. I believe that bitcoin will always have a place in the digital market place but I do not know how it might be positioned in the future as a speculative investment platform. It seems to me that increased utility leads to increased valuation so those alternatives that offer more utility will also produce better investments.
Let us not forget the lessons learned with the 17th century Tulip bubble!
Exactly. There was a growing concern that Bitcoin was going to kill itself fairly recently with the blockchain capacity issues and then everyone's inability or unwillingness to address it. If Bitcoin is going to keep growing, it has to have he ability to scale transactional volumes, or it will lose out to an alt that can handle the demands placed on it. At this point, bitcoin's biggest threat is probably a failure to adapt to a fast changing crypto marketplace or refusal to innovate for risk of upsetting the status quo it has created. |
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99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?
I think you're hitting on an important risk. One of two things will have to happen: price will have to increase to the point where fees collected will cover mining costs, or fees will have to rise to that point. In either case, the least efficient miners will be forced out, and there is likely to be the risk of centralization as a result of the disappearance of the the individual miners. But it seems likely that fees have to increase either way, absent an enormous growth in transactional volume and the infrastructure changes to the blockchain to accompany that. |
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99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?
20 years from now mining difficulty will be twenty times harder and more efficient hardwares will replace the old ones. Unlike today miners can harvest btc monthly but 20 years from now they can only mine satoshi. At that time also bitcoins price is twenty times bigger than the current price. Also bitcoin wallets can be carried or be placed on your pocket with the use of a device that looks like a small calculator. There is no reason to assume that bitcoin's price will be 20 times higher in 20 years just based on time passed alone. You cannot count on such an occurrence to save the system since price operates independently based on far more complex factors. |
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You would get a clearer answer if you specify the amount of bitcoin which are going to be sold. "Huge" can be anywhere from 1000BTC to 1MBTC. The former won't even move the market while the latter will likely result in a substantial drop on the price.
I totally agree with you that if there are no substantial amount of bitcoins sold in the market like the amount you have mentioned then it cannot be called panic selling. Why would there be panic selling in the first place, it is the most unlikely thing to do for a bitcoin stockholder since bitcoin will not have a price deflation. The most likely reason would be that people bought with the expectation of price increases too close to the halving. People assumed the halving would mean a doubling of the price after the halving, ignoring the fact that markets are forward looking and that if the halving was to double the price, it would have happened slowly and gradually before the halving, not after. And that's exactly what happened. Since last August, the price has more than doubled. (Almost tripled.) People who missed that run up and expected to have big profits buying late in that rally would be worried about loss of capital once the people who bought a long time ago start taking their profits. The race to the exit could hammer the price. In short, the majority of people don't buy Bitcoin to hold it long term. They buy it to trade for USD profit. |
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What if somebody will make a huge dump and sell it all the way to earn some profits because of this rally in bitcoin,and someone sees it and do that same thing. Is there any effect on bitcoin when someone to this,?
You just described the worlds stock market yes - it goes down. then it comes back up, then it goes down. Roller coaster of fear and greed The difference between the stock market and Bitcoin is that stocks represent ownership in an underlying business that enervates profits. As an owner of that business, the stockholder is entitled to a share of those profits. Bitcoin is merely an asset. It doesn't generate any income. |
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i always say that anything is possible with bitcoin but some things are highly unlikely to happen and this topic is one of them. the dream of bitcoin cheaper than $500 is something that we can only see in our dreams at night and never in the reality.
$350 is not possible again now. Th price may get a little bit down but it will never be at 350 again. The Bitcoin is a lot more popular now and once a currency is popular it is very rare that its value decreases is a short time. This is a ridiculous statement. $350 looked impossible before, when Bitcoin was much higher, and not only did $350 get met, Bitcoin dropped a lot lower than that too. Surely everyone caught up in he mania of Bitcoin when it was above $1200 thought it could never get so low again, and then it did, and very quickly. Statements like "it will never be 350 again" or "it's not possible" ignore the risk that it's not only possible, but likely for a speculative instrument that has such sharp volatility. In the last year and a half, Bitcoin was below 350 a lot longer than its been above it since then. |
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I disagre. In this month and august bitcoin will stay arround 600-700 $ and then in september some guy predicted that the price will go more than 1000 $. He is a professional analysist. He also predicted the last bitcoin price of 740 $. I hope he is true, more money for all of us. Agreed. Im also disagree if btc price would go down until $350, my predict the lowest btc price at that time around $500. but whos that guy? How can he be sure if btc price will go more than $1000? He is doing professional technical analysis. Look here on the picture is his prediction, he is from the Dutch forum here. He predicts that the price will go to 9000$. I don't think that it will go that high up but we will see.  Is anyone supposed to take this "chart" seriously? It looks like it was done in MS Paint with a bunch of lines drawn everywhere that have no relation to anything to support the ridiculous prediction. |
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If bitcoin gains physical form then it can give tough competition to paper money in future as people have more faith in something that they can hold physically.
The problem with this is Bitcoin literally cannot exist physically. Bitcoin only exists inside the blockchain, and that itself is only a digital concept. even if you printed a physical instrument and stamped a private key on it, that will have no bearing on ownership because ownership is only transferred inside the blockchain. Whoever has the private key has the power to spend bitcoins, and this makes it impossible to have Bitcoin as a physical currency. |
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Paper money will have a good image as is now, people cannot leave paper money because there is no any problem for the people to pay with paper money in their local stores etc.
I don't think the future is going to be good with paper money. People wants to have daily convenience and we can see it with bitcoin. For sure bitcoin is going to replace paper money soon. But we can't tell of when it is going to happen. I feel that the paper money is a very good shape for a transaction tool, and I'm not sure bitcoin will replace it. in fact, paper money has been used since the first, and it is a tool change transactions of coins into paper money. they changed it because I think the coin is very difficult to use. Well, maybe in the future will only be a bitcoin digital currency, and will be shaped card like a credit card. The concept of money predates the use of paper money. Paper money is just the current most popular medium of exchange. Without paper fiat, money still exists because money is a concept that can be manifested in many different types of instruments. |
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