Yep.

Just you.




Sometimes I get worried that my bottom chart might be too ambitious, and so after I saw your post, I had to go look at my bottom chart, and I feel a lot better about it now.. especially, since I am ONLY expecting my bottom to be $492,562-ish by November 2033..

Therefore, your numbers make me feel a lot more "reasonable" in regards to my own forward bottom projection.



Many of us who have been in bitcoin for a while should not need anything even close to the Biodom numbers in order to be quite thrilled.. even another 5x to 10x from here should contribute to a lot of elation. .I would think.

Of course, if you are newer to bitcoin and you are thinking that you may not even be able to get to 1 or 2 bitcoins of accumulation in the next 10 years, then you might be a little more reliant upon such price performance levels that go beyond 5x, 10x or even 20x from here... which is seems that my bottom chart is largely in the 20x territory when it comes to a 10 year time horizon.


Hopefully, you are not wrong again... when it comes to holding onto king daddy. .this time around

 

You are misleading if you are suggesting that diversification into shitcoins is any kind of a good idea.

diversification for the mere sake of diversification is not a good idea if you don't know what the fuck you are doing.. including that bitcoin is likely a very unique asset, so if you are going to hold other assets that are also correlated to bitcoin's performance, then you are largely just adding more risk onto an already risky investment and you might not be getting any benefit from any of those investments into shitcoins, if that might be what you are suggesting.  

Generally the idea of diversifying would be to invest into categories of assets that are not necessarily correlated, even though a lot of assets end up being correlated to deceptive kinds of irresponsible fiat (and debt) practices, but nontheless, diversification into various traditional asset classes (that would not be keeping all of your eggs in bitcoin and perhaps dollars) would have categories of diversifying into equities, property, commodities, bonds and cash or cash equivalents... so there could be some value that comes from diversifying once you reach a certain threshold of value.. perhaps 20% to 100% of your annual income, and perhaps there would not even be a need to diversify before reaching some level of value that starts to feel like it is getting BIG relative to your situation.. and how to diversify once you reach that threshold value might well be another consideration, but shitcoins surely does not seem like it should play much of any kind of place in the investment portfolio unless it is quite limited (maybe less than 10% of the size of the bitcoin investment) and/or maybe ONLY to go down such a shitcoin path with any kind of size based on a kind of special knowledge that you have that goes beyond merely what a bunch of dumbass shitcoin pumpers (influencers) are telling, including the dumb and misleading ethereum talking points.. which is the mother asshole of shitcoins.. as Saifedean Ammous if famous for saying.


Yes.. ethereum is a scam that has been producing a lot of profits, so far... I am not going to argue about it or whether I am ignorant or not because I don't give that many shits if you want to invest in that smoke and mirror and ever changing nothing burger that merely is composed of a lot of gobbledy-gook convolution.  Good luck if you believe it is any kind of meaningful long term investment that helps you to understand the world - including understanding bitcoin better.. whether you own any bitcoin or not as compared with ethereum.. that's surely is your choice.

I meant to say "reevaluate," so that was a typo (or a freudian slip).... Oh?  I see that you did not paraphrase me properly.. here's what I said:  "keep buying BTC and reassess where you are at 3-5 years from now".. Reassess and revalue are not really great synonyms in the context in which I used the word, but yeah, reevaluate would work as another way of saying what I said.

Isn't it a silly question to ask what the BTC price is going to do in the short term.  Yes, it can do a lot of thing, but is it very likely or does it matter very much?  Sure, if some of us might still be accumulating BTC we might want to know if the BTC price is going to suddenly become more expensive, so we might end up front-loading our BTC accumulation or even engaging in some kind of leverage buying in order to front-load our BTC accumulation.. but it still seems risky to be fucking around with trying to figure out short term BTC price moves with any kinds of specifics.. and instead just establish BTC accumulation practices that we are happy in either direction that the BTC price might go in the short term.

Sure if we are fairly early in our BTC accumulation journey, then it is likeloy that we are going to have some motives for the BTC price to stay down as long as it can and even maybe to go lower while we continue to buy... and so when are the discounts going to stop and will we change our BTC accumulation strategies if BTC prices end up doing some kind of a step up in price and then end up being supra $34k or even into the $40ks.. or will we just buy at any price.. and the answers to these kinds of questions relate to where we are at in terms of our own BTC accumulation, and other individual factors regarding our cashflow and perhaps our investment timeline.


That is a dumb and whinny thread... yes short term DCA might not work out so well..

With DCA and even in such a volatile asset like bitcoin that sometimes has extended draw down periods, DCA could end up taking many years to really start to see your BTC holdings being in profits relative to the amoutn that you had invested.. sometimes even more than 10 years, even though in bitcoin 3-4 years or longer tends to have started to show profits, even during various points of the worst performance periods, and of course, there is no guarantee that history is going to repeat including that your bitcoin is going to get into profits, merely because history has shown that to be the case.  There are no guarantees even though, so far, historically, the longer that you had been DCA investing into bitcoin the more likely that you would have had ended up in positive results and sometimes even quite astonishingly positive results after a couple of cycles.

You can look at this website and see that 6 years of investing $100 per week into bitcoin would have gotten you around 2.12 BTC with $26k invested, and sure you can tweak the dates, and you may well not be profitable if you started less right around the time that the BTC was peaking in 2021.. so even 3 years ago is likely only barely getting you into the potential of profits with a DCA approach of $100 per week with around $15.7k invested and a little less than 0.57283 BTC accumulated, but it does not necessarily make DCA a bad or a wrong approach... as long as you are thinking longer term in your BTC investment.


Fair enough.  I know that the first several years investing into something like bitcoin might not have positive results, and people might end up making a lot of mistakes.. and in the end, you have to figure out your own situation in terms of your various psychological and financial circumstances, including how aggresive that you feel that you can be in terms of your bitcoin accumulation (if that's what you choose to do), and surely I have frequently mentioned that the assymetric nature of bitcoin does not even compel anyone to have to be aggressive in their bitcoin accumulation in order to get themselves into quite a comfortable place and to end up having more and more options down the road... even though at the same time, BTC accumulators sometimes will have regrets in regards to their having had not been as aggressive as they could have been.. and maybe they don't even necessarily see the pay off until several years down the road... depending on when they got started and also how consistent they might have been in terms of either regular DCA buying or some other variation of buying that might have allowed them to perform at least as well as a strict DCA approach.  

I think that there are examples that go in both directions in terms of whether some other approach might have ended up beating a strict DCA approach if we start to look back 4-12 years or so.. .and yeah, maybe it is not even realistic to try to look back much further that 10 years back since, there were not as many ways to buy BTC back before 2013.. especially for normies, even though there were some ways to do it that required more and more efforts to figure out or to be in the right place geographically..

And, even now, it is not even necessarily easy for people to get onto (into) bitcoin in all parts of the world. Some places are going to take a whole hell of a lot of effort to figure out how to buy bitcoin. .and then if successful in figuring out how to buy it, then there are probably more ways to figure out to store it, but even storage is not easy in all parts of the world in terms of trying to figure out ways to lessen exposure to third-party custodians.

So sometimes screw ups can come from bad information and/or bad ways of getting bitcoin and then maybe getting confused by how you should store your bitcoin if you do end up figuring out how to get it.


As I already stated, I don't consider sentiments to be a very good thing to attempt to figure out what to do and/or how to attempt to maximize the amount of bitcoin that you are able to accumulate without getting mislead into some baloney mumbo-jumbo that may or may not be correct... so you may well not end up accumulating more BTC because you end up getting your measures of sentiment (or whatever people are telling you about sentiment) wrong.

Fuck sentiment.  It is not that helpful, even if you believe that it is.. and even if you want to strategize your BTC accumulation approach what you believe sentiment to be.
 

I doubt that we are in a great "golden opportunity" for accumulation based on sentiment, but instead because bitcoin is a great investment and it is likely being pushed lower in prices and staying here longer than it should..and at the same time we cannot know how long it is going to stay here and we cannot know if it is going to go lower or higher.. at  least not in the short term, even if people are telling you that they know, beyond something in the ballpark of 50/50 assertions.

For example, if you have $26k and you are able to accumulate 1 BTC at $26k, or you are able to get 1.3 BTC at $20k or 0.7647 BTC at $34k, sure those might make differences when BTC is at $500k or higher in 2030, but I am not really sure if on the margins you are really going to be able to figure out how to make sure that you get more than 1 BTC with your $26k rather than getting stuck in some situation in which you end up getting less than 1 BTC with that amount... even if you think that you have it all figured out.. based on sentiment blah blah blah or whatever.


Bitcoin price can more than double in less than 24 hours, but it is a big so what.  We should not be planning our strategies on those kinds of happenings, even though maybe it would be helpful if we were to be prepared psychologically and/or financially if such a thing were to happen, even if it is a low probability of actually happening.


Yeah.. good point. fuck ethereum.. and other shitcoins.  

I had not even noticed that dumb-ass chart is not even about bitcoin.  Ethereum surely is not relevant to this thread.  The tail does not wag the dog... and the only dog that I see is bitcoin.

That does appear to be a good point to highlight.

When any of us creates an investment plan, whether that is in bitcoin or any other investment, hopefully we are setting some parameters for ourself right from the beginning, yet even if we set parameters, we should still make sure that we invest in such a way that we retain discretion and we are not locked into our investment, even if we initially intend that our investment might be for 50 years or longer, we might change our mind after 5 months and decide to abandon the whole project, unless we locked ourselves into some kind of a system in which we are not able to get out.  Bitcoin does not come naturally built with such a system of locking in, so we would have to take extra steps if we were to want to lock ourselves in or even if we were to "accidentally" lock ourselves in by creating some kind of timelock or some other way of carrying out some kind of a non-default execution (way of holding bitcoin).

Surely there is value in NOT wiffle-waffling with any investment that generally tends to go up and that has good chances of outperforming a lot of other investments, but people are still not obligated to follow even good plans - and many of us likely already know quite a few examples of people who cashed out too many bitcoin too soon and then regretted their seemingly short-sighted approach - but they still are both free to make dumb-ass transactions and they should take complete responsibility over any of those kinds of decisions regarding when and how to buy BTC and how long to hold and when and if to sell.  Does not matter what any of us folks on the interwebs say, every person should be responsible for his her decisions regarding whether and how to invest into bitcoin - even if we may well be suggesting what we believe to be better and/or seemingly best practices, and many of us might not even end up being correct..

I feel like I am being played.

Is that a rhetorical question?


Great!!

At least "someone":

a) knows what is happening in the world out there relevant to china and bitcoin

and/or

b) did not give Gachapin "the run-around"

 


Whoazza!!!!      

Now here is an even more substantial and seemingly serious answer that is actually "taking [Gachapin] seriously" #nohomo, I hope.


That's gotta be worth something? (please note, this here question is a rhetorical question.)

Looks like gobble-dee-gook to me.  If you have a long investment time horizon, then just keep buying BTC and reassess where you are at 3-5 years from now.  If we go by your forum registration date, you have already been in BTC for a bit more than a year, so maybe you have been able to accumulate some BTC during that time, and maybe you are not yet in profits, but whether you continue to accumulate more or not has to do with your own situation in terms of how many BTC you have already accumulated and what the rest of your personal circumstances look like...

trying to figure out what might or might happens in the market in the short-term is another question that may not really matter too much, including nonsense discussions of sentiment.  You really are likely to get yourself into trouble if you are trying to figure out what to do based on market sentiments rather than just having some kind of a solid plan that is based on your own finances and psychology rather than giving very many shits about how the other people in the market might feel about bitcoin.

You are not exactly wrong in terms of the point that you are making which we can see that since about the first few days of September, the mem pools have not really been clearing transactions in the lower 10s.. sats per vbyte, and largely staying above 20 sats per vbyte.. so surely it sometimes might even take a while to clear those in the 20s and 30sats per vbyte unless some of the transactions can get cleared out.  I might have to start to get worried in a couple of weeks if my transaction has not yet cleared.. at least in terms of considering if I might want to try to do something about it or to even send another transaction with a higher fee in order to serve in the place of the one that I had sent but did not have a rush in terms of it reaching its destination.

I tend to get my mempool historical information from here.  https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,3m,weight

And, I will also look at what various wallets are suggesting for the high, medium and low fees.

PS.  By the way, @serveriawhich website are you using to figure out how far your pending transaction is from the tip?

No Problema!!!!

I am both student and teacher, and I give myself a one-year extension to turn in my homework... and next year, I will do it again.

It does "seem" that they (referring MTGOX trustee.. don't kill me) are making progress, but geez, I thought that it was getting closed to being paid out in 2021.. so that would have been a bit more than 7 years, but now we are going on 10 years.. from the shut down of the site..  in February 2014.

Surely there can be quite a bit of variance in terms of how much gambling could devolve into being a problem or merely a means for entertainment and/or that some people do actually have some ways that they actually make money from various forms of gambling.. but surely a pretty low minority actually are able to make money from gambling... and surely the money makers would not be the games of chance ones, unless they figured out some kind of a glitch.. which also is pretty unlikely, but does happen once in a while.

I think one of the points that I was attempting to make earlier is that some times people might not know the extent to which they might have gone into an unhealthy realm or that they may well not realizing that they are squandering too much of their time and their money (and even their mental energies) into a path that is not really very good for their own finances and/or psychology.. and sure some of these people may well have gambling and investment separations.. but then sometimes the investments might not be enough for their own good and sometimes the investments will get siphoned into the gambling.. it is not necessarily easy to judge someone else, and surely each of us have to make our own judgements - even while at the same time realizing that we might end up being wrong in our approach, even considering our approach in light of our own individual particulars.

You should not be presuming that the same kinds of balances are going to need to be in place for all investors, and sure when you start out investing you are going to be in a certain place in which you hardly have anything to add up that is in your investment portfolio, yet sometime between 3-10 years investing (whether in bitcoin or any other thing), you may well start to get to or to exceed 1 year's income (living costs) inside of your investment portfolio.  A lot of investment and cash management advisors, will suggest somewhere in the ballpark of 6 months income (living expenses) as an emergency fund, and personally, I am not so strict on such a rule or such an emergency fund being maintained at all times, even though I do believe that 6 months is a pretty decent guideline regarding how to think about how any of us might deal with a variety of scenarios that might come our way in which we are going to need liquidity (or cash/value to be available in our local currency).

If we set some standards for ourselves, we should be trying to consider why we are setting such standards and also to consciously realize the extent to which we are deviating from such standard or if it might not be a good idea to deviate from the standard if we are not sure why it exists, so sometimes we do end up having to experience a variety of scenarios in order for the importance of certain practices start to make more sense - and it could be that if we take a real whimpy and/or conservative approach towards investing into bitcoin, such as $10 per week when our budget would allow $100-200 per week, then we might not have to worry about any of the bitcoin related matters because they are relatively a smaller amount of our budget, but then if the price of BTC ends up going up faster and/or higher than our other investments, we might start to realize that there were real world consequences that ended up playing out and perhaps causing us some regrets regarding choices that we made earlier in our lives and we are unable to turn back the clock for some of our decisions, even if we may well have been truly and sincerely convinced that we were doing the thing that was best for our current self and our future self, but we ended up being wrong.


Yes, but none of us are going to know for sure if we are going to be happy with the results.  We might believe that we are happy with what we are doing, but we are also not going to really know the results, so we just have to do our best, and some of us will end up being more correct than others in terms of reaching a balance that works for us in the short term, in the process of the investment, and later when it comes time to start to reap the fruit of our earlier investments and our investment strategies, if any.


Well, you may well have to make a lot of adjustments along the way, but sure there is no problem making a plan and then trying to stick with it, but you might have to tweak such plan at various points. .and you will likely become more informed about your plan as you see results and if the results end up deviating somewhat from your base-case projections.

Let's say that you started investing in BTC around 10 years ago, so at the time that you got started in bitcoin you already had around a $100k investment portfolio, and you wanted to bring bitcoin up to about 10% of that portfolio. so you more or less want to get up to 10% and then thereafter to reassess.. And so if you start to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, then it is going to take you around 2 years or perhaps a bit more to get to 10%, but then if the bitcoin and the other assets perform differently, then it could end up contributing towards your reconsideration of the matter. .. your overall assessment is that you realize that bitcoin could perform better than the rest of your portfolio, but it might not, so you are merely just expecting around the same results as your overall investment portfolio, which had been around 6% per year on average.

So if you  had invested around $10k into bitcoin  (at $100 per week) starting from early 2014, then you may well have ended up accumulating right around 30 BTC.

So you might reassess and then decide to go 1 more year with the $100 per week into bitcoin, even though it is going to take you higher than 10%... so then  after 3 years investing into BTC at $100 per week, you may well have gotten to right around 40 BTC, so you may well be faced with questions regarding how to proceed.. and I am not going to say that I really know the answer because each person is likely going to need to reassess based on his her own situation about how to proceed when such surprise (or somewhat surprise) results end up playing out.

I am not sure of the resolution that each person is going to make regarding how to treat their bitcoin investment because if they had invested in bitcoin for a bit more than 2 years at $100 per week, they might have been right around 10% invested by the time early 2016 comes, but then then by the time we get to late 2016, they might be getting to 13% or so invested into BTC, which is more than their 10% expectations or maybe they maintain their allocation to keep it at 10% as compared to their other investments, but still they end up being faced with the BTC prices shooting up around 40x between late 2016 and late 2017, if we use $500 as the base price.

There may well be some needs to reassess whether continuing to DCA is a good strategy or if some other kind of an approach towards BTC accumulation might become more practical.

I personally don't really like the idea of reallocation, but if you are not very diversified, then you may well need to think about reallocation, even though letting your winners ride might also be a good approach as long as you are comfortable with your various other investments as compared with bitcoin, because sometimes when the price of one asset disproportionately goes up as compared with other investment, there are needs to assess what are your other investments and are you comfortable to keep so much of your netwealth in an asset that just went shooting up so much rather than shaving some off.. even though we are not really talking about those kinds of matters in this thread.


I don't really disagree with any of these last assessments of yours even though you are kind of crossing over the definitions of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum, and in practice they do frequently end up crossing over depending on how they are deployed.


The risk in bitcoin is not 50/50, even though short-term price moves could be 50/50, but if you are investing into bitcoin over 4-10 years or even longer than that 20-30 years, the risk is not 50/50.

Sure you could lose all your money, but when you are investing money in the long term, you are not investing with money that you need in the short term to cover your expenses, and even if you might end up with a shorter investment time horizon of 4 years, then you still should not be thinking about the short-term price moves.

Of course, you can choose to treat bitcoin however you like and get in however you like, but the thrust of the ideas of this thread is long term investing, which I personally would consider to be a minimum of 4 years from the time of any amount that you put in or any time that you add more value, it is still 4 years from the time of the new value, not from the time that you started.


FTFY  

It seems that I agree with everything you said as long as you are talking about bitcoin, which is the subject of this thread.

We are not talking about "crypto" here... in fact fuck crypto.. including that it is not likely that a lot of the principles of long term investing, buying on the dip and DCA do not really apply to crypto or shitcoins..,.

you gotta be careful if you try to apply these same presumptions of fundamental value to projects that may or may not have fundamental value, so you better spend some time figuring it out, otherwise you are going to be applying different kinds of considerations including in and out considerations...  

Anyhow, if you meant to talk about bitcoin, it seems pretty strange that you use such a vague, meaningless and dumbass word, and you've done it more than once.. .. hopefully, you learn how to use the term bitcoin, if you are talking about bitcoin, and if you happen to be talking about something else, you likely need to explain what it is that you are talking about rather than speaking in gobble-dee-gook and meaningless language... and there would be no excuse to say, everyone else does.. .. if that is what some members here might be thinking.. so what if other people speak in retarded language? We are talking about bitcoin here. so hopefully we are not using retarded terms without at least having a context for why we are using such terms.


Hopefully, emergencies are not happening very frequently.

Don't get your emergency funds mixed up with the likelihood that some of your incoming cashflow and your expenses vary.  The variance of your cashflow versus your expenses should not be an emergency because you can project out those kinds of matters and put them within a range.  Emergencies might not happen for many years, but if you engage in sloppy practices of projecting out your cashflow and your expenses, then perhaps emergencies are happening way more frequently than they should be.


I like these kinds of categories, yet there is still a difference in regards to how much to allocate towards something for each paycheck, but if the emergency fund is not being used, then it does not need to be allocated into, except if such emergency fund is getting rebuilt from having had been depleted... so when you are describing the 20% for emergency fund, you are likely just referring to something like an expectation that you might have about variance in your expenses versus your income..,. so there is difference between a variance in your income versus expenses and the replenishing of an emergency fund... even though there could be cases that might be drawn out for a decent amount of time that might amount to replenishment of a depleted emergency fund...and some members have already suggested that an emergency funds should not be touched at all, except for the purpose that they are proscribed.  I am not 100% in agreement with that view, but I surely have a lot of sympathy for that kind of a conservative and self-imposed disciplined approach.

Fuck crypto

Mind blown.








It's not easy to figure out where or whether to punctuate.







Do you expect me to be perfect in all ways?


#askingforafriend


Wait wait wait...


You want to cheat?


Wait.

I think that my response to @cafter's comment on stocks mostly speaks for itself, and largely was intended to point out that there are going to be problems to conclude that stocks are either a better long-term investment than bitcoin, or that anyone would have necessarily been able to figure out how to time getting in and out of bitcoin in such a way that they actually did end up performing better with stocks than they would have by just staying with bitcoin, and sure some people may well could have been able to get in and out (and probably did).... including that it is a lot easier to look at performance after the fact and then figure out how "you should have been allocated" and then how you should have switched and then how you should have switched back....blah blah blah .. rather than just sticking with a longer term plan.. such as building your BTC portfolio over a long time, and sure if you just got into bitcoin in the last 2-3 years, then it is likely to have had been more difficult to build a profitable portfolio in terms of its current dollar value at this time (as compared with stocks), but surely those kinds of selective readings do not mean that stocks are a better investment than bitcoin and likely are not going to be and are not a better investment over a longer time horizon (you can choose for yourself).. especially in the longer term historically and likely not even better in the upcoming future.. though its up to you regarding how you allocate into various assets whether stocks, bitcoin or otherwise...

Again, good luck if you are getting off of bitcoin and into stocks or switching back and forth or if you cannot make up your mind how to allocate, like I already mentioned, you are likely going to need it if you are fucking around and failing/refusing to allocate to bitcoin..or you are getting too enamored with stocks relative to bitcoin.

Perhaps another unstated assumption is regarding trading.. which is getting in and out of assets rather than sticking to them in the long term, so bitcoin has already proven to have had been a better investment than many stocks (if not most and if not when referring to general index stocks) over several kinds of time frames, especially the longer that you zoom out beyond 2 years... and so it becomes a BIG SO FUCKING WHAT.. when trying to whine about bitcoin not sufficiently performing in some kind of a recent framework in which you select the period that you want to show based on gobbledy-gook "reasons"... so a lot of bitcoin naysaying (and even stock correlation) nonsense can be shown and argued in various short-term periods.. which you seem to be supporting those kinds of framings if you feel that you need to come to @cafter's defense.  

Maybe zoom out a bit, and then come back and discuss, if there is any point that you might have been wanting to make that is more than just arguing for the mere sake of it.


I had meant some of those kinds of "terms of endearment" as emphasis.. Do I need to read back through my earlier post and try to figure out if I might have gone too far (and hurt some feelings) with some of my "terms of endearment/emphasis" in a few places?

Also, do you believe that I should have been more welcoming to @cafter's comments, even if to me they were coming off as questionable in terms of their genuineness?  

What would Jesus do?  

Is there a forum interaction (posting) standard that you would like for me to have had followed?
 

This is a bit of a mish-mash of questions with a mixed message.  

My Bitcoin is doing quite well... probably ever since about 2016/2017 depending on how it is calculated.. but it was not necessarily even a bad thing to be underwater for a period of time, either..I surely built more bitcoin during times in which the BTC price was down.

I have other non-bitcoin investments too, but so far, I had not been talking about them in this thread.. and I try to mostly focus on bitcoin anyhow, since this forum is somewhat bitcoin focused, even though we have various shitcoiners here too.. and surely sometimes other kinds of investment ideas (and even personal development ideas) can be compared and contrasted (and therefore relevant to) with bitcoin.

Regarding my past mistakes of investing into BTC at the top of the 2013 cycle and then keeping on investing into BTC on the way down through 2014 and beyond.. I don't have any regrets about that, and sure I try to learn how to do things better, even though I don't even consider that I made any major mistakes in my earlier years in bitcoin in light of my own then circumstances... ..

Do you believe that there would have been better ways for me to get into bitcoin, based on what was my own situation at that time, from your Monday morning quarter-backing perspective?

From your forum registration date (which is late 2013), it appears that maybe we could have had gotten into bitcoin at around the same time, perhaps?  (even though the trust feedback on your account appears that maybe you sold your account somewhere between 2015-2017.. so maybe you don't even have bitcoin experiences dating back to late 2013 beyond maybe some kinds of fictional representations that you would like to make, after the fact.)

Do you have a bitcoin related story?

Would you like to say that whatever you did in regards to your bitcoin journey and your other ways of "diversifying" was better than what I did?  

Did you start investing in bitcoin in late 2013 or at some other time (or maybe you haven't even yet started?)?  

Have you ever said what it was that you did in regards to bitcoin and/or how your other investments (bitcoin related or otherwise) might have related to your bitcoin investing and your current state of knowledge on the topic?...

Over the years of my forum registration and in the forum, I have discussed in quite a bit of detail regarding what I did in regards to bitcoin, but surely sometimes I like to use hypothetical numbers so I am not really trying to compete with anyone in regards to some of the personal specifics, except maybe in the ideas arena or maybe when some members try to act like they know it all or are able to beat a DCA approach or some other kind of proclamations that may or may not be applicable to what other forum members might want to do (or consider doing)..

Do you have some ideas in regards to some of these better kinds of investment approaches into BTC?

Maybe you should provide some kind of a framework for how you might have had considered investing (whether BTC or otherwise), to maybe show you might have a lot of these bitcoin and investment matters figured out and how you might have had been able to outperform my own approach to BTC (which I largely consider variations of DCA investing) or to have been able to outperform a regular DCA investing into BTC approach over the past 10-ish years?  

Go ahead.  I am all ears.

I do think that in many cases, DCA is going to help people who might have tendencies to try to overly time the market, but if they establish and aggressive DCA that uses near or all of the cash reserves every month without sufficiently creating an emergency fund they could get themselves into trouble.


That's not correct @adultcrypto.  Just because DCA has an ability to bring peace of mind, and less needs to worry about your investment, it does not completely remove the possibility that some people might still worry or that some other BTC investment strategy might bring them more peace of mind because it suits them better to be lump sum investing, buying on dips and/or whatever other strategies that they choose.    They may well need to be more active with their investment, and perhaps that is what you were aiming to say. .that DCA allows someone to be an active investor without having to be active... whereas some other strategies might take a bit more managing.. but not even that is completely true because there could be ways that someone is able to set up the parameters for whatever system that s/he follows that is even less worrisome for them (and even less active) than DCA. 

Lump sum buy bitcoin one time and then completely forget it for 20 years.. that's pretty inactive and it might even give that person a lot of peace of mind to just not think about bitcoin for 20 years or whatever might be his/her timeline.

Don't get me wrong.  I do think that DCA is the best for an overwhelming majority of normies.. but people are surely free to choose their own variation of systems and even truly/sincerely believe that it is better for them.. and perhaps they are correct in terms of their personality and/or their financial circumstances.


Fair enough.. and some people are not able to buy in bulk anyhow, and some people are able to buy in bulk, but they might find it to be more helpful to figure out a way to pace out their investment into bitcoin through some kind of a DCA approach.


Failing to sufficiently establish either an emergency fund and/or sufficient reserve funds for other kinds of regular expenses is an easy mistake to make.. .and sometimes you can see it in theory, but when it comes to practice, you might have to practice for a long time to be able to figure out the level of balance that works for your actual situation rather than what it looks like on paper.

I have a transaction that I set at around 13 sats per vbyte within the last few days, and so I already have an understanding that it could take several days and maybe weeks to clear.

A few months ago, I had some others that took a while to go through when I set them at the lower end of the range of what had been being cleared, and surely I can see that there remains a bit of a gap between my transaction and the ones that are currently clearing in the 20-ish sats per vbyte, as you mentioned.

Wen clear?


hahahahaha

I don't really care that much.. I set my fees in that kind of way  just to watch it, but if I was transacting with a stranger, probably there would be a need to set it in the 30-50 sats per vbyte range in order to NOT piss anyone off or to risk losing reputation/credibility.

You are starting from a pretty lame-ass framework in regards to the roles of each of the parents.

Sure it is possible that the parents were not actively involved in certain day to day running of the business, but one of the ONLY ways that Sam ends up getting access to high-level people is because of his parents, including the legal and complicated ways that FTX was set up with hundreds of shell companies and hundreds of ways to complicate the flow of money.. .. Surely daddy bankman helped out with those kinds of things... or set him up with attorneys who would engage in such fraudulent ways of setting u such a relatively new business that was rising to fame so quickly.


I agree with you that there could end up being some wearing out of the public based on how much some of the angles of this case are in the media.. and surely there are also deeper and more boring angles that will also likely lead to more ways in which fraud was going on and maybe even hiding of funds and maybe even justifying the charging or the filing of lawsuits against high level people (whether politicians or other high ranking folks.. maybe investors)....

Another thing that I had mentioned previously is that the FTX executors have so far been  successful in their being able to keep out outside and independent auditors.. and probably part of the strategy of the FTX executors will be to make it appear that they are doing a "good enough" job so that no one is asking for the outside auditors to come in and to help out with some of the forensics and to bring to light some facts (relationships) that are not readily apparent from whatever crowd sourcing kinds of proddings that are going on.


I agree on this part.

Maybe there is some necessity for forum members to take you seriously, to presume that you are not failing to tell the whole story and/or to consider your own responsibilities in the matter.

Surely, I will praise you if you had held through the whole time, and your story it not so far out there that it could not be true, because I do recognize and appreciate that there are people who go too far into bitcoin by investing too much without having a plan for either price direction, including the extremes, which frequently it seems that the extremes come when not expected, but there are still needs to prepare for them, and it is problematic to go all in to any asset whether bitcoin or anything else if you could have looked at the chart and you could have seen that it had already gone up around 17x from its $4k-ish bottom from either March 2020 or from April 2019.. and going up to $69k-ish in November 2021.

I frequently describe the lump sum buyer at the top as a kind of fantasy situation in which no one would really do.. even though people do those kinds of thing...   

The smarter thing to do, even if you make a lump sum buy at the top, is to continue to buy all the way down and just continue buying, but part of the problem of the lump sum buyer at the top may well be that they don't have any money left for buying... so then the logic may well to be to just sit on the investment, which seems to be your story...

Maybe you will get back to profits, and maybe you never will, and the fact that you sit on your investment rather than continuing to buy, you have a higher price that you have to pray that the BTC price gets back to in order to get back in profits, as compared to the person who continued to buy might well be in the neighborhood of break even or at least way less under water than you, even though maybe the person who continued to buy may well have had ended up investing more into bitcoin.. so instead of buying 1 BTC at $69k (or whatever price and amount you bought), the one who continued to buy may well have ended up buying 2 BTC for a total amount invested of around $95k (see the DCA of $250 per week for the last two years to have had resulted in $26k invested and about 1 BTC accumulated).

So yeah having 1 BTC for $69k versus having 2 BTC for $95k might not feel like it makes too much of a difference, even though there are ways to bring down your average cost per BTC and there are ways to consider that it is fucking less than smart to go all in when the price is rising like that.. even though surely a decent number of people are lured into that kind of FOMO.. and also many of them end up selling - and cutting their losses way sooner rather than riding it out, so there is a bit of smarts to just let the investment ride out when a guy (or gal) realizes that s/he had made such a mistake in the event that s/he is not able to continue to invest to bring down his/her average cost per BTC.

Don't get me wrong.  I did something similar in late 2013 when I first got into bitcoin, and so I continued to buy bitcoin through 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 (even though I did not really inject very much new money starting in about late 2016), and so my very first coin was in the negative all the way from late 2013 until about March 2017, but my average cost per BTC was only in the negative until about late 2015..... so I can understand the experience of how long it might take to build a BTC portfolio in the beginning and to get the BTC holdings into solid profits.. while at the same time realizing and appreciating that there are no guarantees regarding BTC's price direction or that it might end up going to zero, so there are needs to figure out position size in accordance with how much you want to put into such a bet.

Regarding your whinny comment about stocks out performing bitcoin in the period in which you invested, and even if true, you remain a dumb-ass if you believe that stocks are a better investment than bitcoin, even if you can figure out ways to spin facts or to selectively look at the bitcoin versus stocks situation in such a way to whine about it and to presume stocks to be a better investment... That kind of comment and dig at bitcoin, sounds quite disingenuine to me... or maybe you are just whining?  In any event, good luck with your investment into stocks and into other non-bitcoin assets, if you believe that is the direction to go..you are likely going to need a wee bit of good luck on your side.

Yeah, that article is 5 days old, but there are some other articles in the last day or so, including that the FTX estate has only just filed a civil lawsuit against SBF's parents for their fraudulent involvement of the business and their taking of customer money (Apparently alleging $16.4 million).. and perhaps these kinds of civil actions will end up leading to criminal actions against those slime balls parents.. that we already know that they have way more involvement than they have been given credit....

Fuck those trying to stay behind the scenes twats (it's all alleged at this point.. and prosecutors better also get on the scenes and allege some conduct that will put them where they belong, behind bars.. maybe they can all share cells.. hahahaha.. that would be too lenient... but they might be able to meet each other on the prison playground during times when they are allowed to go outside.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/09/sbfs-parents-were-given-16-4m-house-paid-for-entirely-by-ftx-lawsuit-says/

I did not consider slippage.. and I am thinking there would NOT be very much slippage with that quantity of BTC.. but sure, maybe it depends on the exchange and how the order is executed... .


In times like these, I sure wished someone would batslappening ujie-pooie for that nonsense... even if you might end up being correct with such negative-nancy prognosticatenings.


Oh gawd... 

Who deserves a batslappening more, Pingrapole or Biodom?

Holy fucking shit.

Don't be getting too worked up @snowpega when it comes to BTC price moves that can go in either direction in shorter time frames.. and even lasting for several months going in directions that are not expected and staying there for longer than expected and staying there for longer than expected. Any of our preparations should be both attempting to prepare for BTC price volatility, but expecting that it is going to take place and we do not have many ideas about the short-term price direction.


Surely price momentum is a thing in bitcoin, too... and whether or not the momentum has changed is not necessarily easy to determine in advance, even when some people think that they either got it figured out or they think that they know the direction that favor the odds.  They frequently get it wrong... which is part of the reason to prepare (both financially and psychologically) for either direction, even if you believe that you have high odds in favor of one direction over another.


Generally speaking, you seem to get the point which is you do not want part or all of your BTC to be serving as part or all of your emergency funds unless you are both in sufficiently high profits with the BTC and/or you have exhausted all other funds.. so usually you are going to want to have an overwhelming majority of your emergency funds in an asset/currency that is mostly (or closely) denominated in the currency that your expenses are denominated.. or that is appreciating (or holding value) at a better rate than the currency that your expenses are denominated.


Your frequently going through a need to cash out of some assets that you do not want to is likely a sign that you are overinvested in those assets and/or your emergency fund is not large enough.. and sure, you likely already know that... but you might be spending a bit too much time trying to make sure that your value is "working" and then you end up overdoing it and not having enough of the "nonworking" asset/currency that you need to pay your expenses.


You can still end up overinvesting and getting your self into the same kind of lack of an emergency fund, even with DCA.

DCA does not completely reduce the problem of overinvesting, but surely it can manage the overinvestment temptations that cause people (maybe moreso newbies, but it can happen to anyone who is overly investing and not sufficiently preparing emergency funds and projecting out cashflows for a sufficient amount of time in advance)..

I personally think that the thing that allows BTC accumulators to be aggressive in their bitcoin accumulation while not going overboard is to study each of their 9 factors as I mentioned in my earlier post, and some of those factors are more important to learn than others, and the better that s/he knows those 9 factors and to make adequate preparations, then the more aggressive that s/he is likely going to be able to be... and surely the devil is in the details and it can take a long time to make sure that you are adequately preparing for both regular expenses and emergency expenses and sufficiently trajectoring that out for an adequate period of time to really be able to assess how aggressive you can be without going beyond what you should be doing (which is also known as gambling.. there is a bit of a sliding scale.. and also a bit of a unclearness in terms of when you have crossed over the line which means that you might not know that you crossed over the line until it is too late).


Trying to make up for losses and then adding more risk in order to make up for losses is not a good mental or financial framework. because strategies should be made in ways that do not devolve into gambling.. even if you might have made a big loss.. I think that another name for continuing to double down is Martingale betting.. so surely sometimes it does work, but sometimes it gets to become so big that there is no way to recover from it... or maybe the losses become so great that it takes years to recover, even though there was no real reason to be taking the risks in the first place, but then when the mistakes are made they just keep doubling and doubling and doubling.. and sometimes it ends up working and other times, it ends up with a forced stop..and having to start from a reckt position.. which might mean never recovering or perhaps taking several years to recover... depending on how soon that the person might have decided to give up rather than keeping on going.