Right now if you sell every bitcoin that you have, seriously, you're a dumb person. We still haven't approached haling fully and I doubt that this is going to be the maximum price level before halving.
I much prefer hold and sell after the price seems unsustainable.
If anyone could identify when the price was unsustainable, bubbles would never happen. |
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Buy treasury bonds and wait 50 years.
There's seriously no safe way to double your money. Even asking such a naive question means you're chasing risky investments and are more likely to end up burned than not.
Yes, the problem is that when there is a way to double money no one invest in other baskets and so the profit decreases...! We could double everyone's money easily, but then everything would cost twice as much as a result and you're exactly the same as you were before. There's no magic wand for increasing your money, if there was, the cost of things would be arbitrary and meaningless. |
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I don't see Bitcoin used very much as a currency for regular trade. Mostly for ways to get around barriers for certain activities that may be outlawed in certain jurisdictions, especially gambling. Without gambling, bitcoin wouldn't be near the size it is now.
Compared to other currencies yes, but generally speaking bitcoin or some other types of money will be used more in the next years, I think concept of Internet of Objects can help bitcoin too. But that's my point against that sentiment. It's too volatile to have much use for regular trade because you can't hold it without risk of it depreciating. A currency without a stable value is not conducive to trade or economic activity. It's only useful in areas where the activity is otherwise illegal and you don't have access to it with traditional money, like gambling that is banned online in many jurisdictions and regulated by cutting off the flow of fiat, or for other illegal purchases, like Silk Road. In those instances, the stable value problem takes a back seat because you wouldn't have access to those items in the traditional monetary system. |
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It's pretty good little channel, in the same vein as the One Minute Physics channel. Good luck growing Andrei.
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I don't see Bitcoin used very much as a currency for regular trade. Mostly for ways to get around barriers for certain activities that may be outlawed in certain jurisdictions, especially gambling. Without gambling, bitcoin wouldn't be near the size it is now.
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I would divide it into 4 parts , use 1 part for trading , 2 for gambling ( sports betting), 3 for providing loans , 4 as BTC investment . I know its not entirely safe , but i think i would do this to double the money  what is your number four (btc investment) that is the question of this topic. there is no good bitcoin investment that can provide you with reliable profit especially for such a large amount of money ($100,000) and two of your suggestions are also bad gambling is the worst because of losses and it is so much worse if you want to do it with large amounts of money and loans is also super risky especially if you want to do it again with large amount of money. it is mostly suitable for smaller amounts. Every person who bets on sports or gambles in a casino thinks they're smarter or luckier than a system that is built to work against them, and guess what... those casinos in Las Vegas are built on the hopes and dreams of those people. This guy is right, stay away from gambling, and with that kind of money, you should probably stay away from crypto, which is just a form of gambling at this point because of how speculative it is. |
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Buy treasury bonds and wait 50 years.
There's seriously no safe way to double your money. Even asking such a naive question means you're chasing risky investments and are more likely to end up burned than not.
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The price increase has already happened, bitcoin has increased 155% this year. The question is when people will start taking profits. If it happens quickly it will tank the price, if it is slow and measured, we might stay at this level for a while and consolidate.
Yes thank you! I have been saying this for so long. People seem to think that the price will still double, or that if they don't see it double all at the same time, it doesn't count. The fact is, bitcoin has already more than doubled in the past year, so if 1) we conclude that the halving will double price (by no means an acceptable given), then 2) we also have to allow for the possibility that the double already happened. Either of these on their own raises enough uncertainty about buying now because of the halving, but together... people buying on the thesis that the halving means easy profit is taking on far more risk than they think they are. |
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We already have have around 16 million coins and this means that with the new block reward corresponding to 12.5 btc we are not going to see that many new coins generated like it is right now. There's a chance mining will become completely unprofitable unless certain conditions will take place (i.e. a higher BTC price).
This was clear since the beginning because all these halvings are set in stone in the protocol.
I personally feel BTC should be valued more than today. But that remains to be seen
12.5 coins per block is still a lot of new coins every day. It is half the current rate of inflation, but 12.5 coins every ten minutes figures out to 1,800 new coins a day, or about a million dollars worth at current prices. That's not an insignificant amount. Mining could very well become unprofitable, but this is a self-correcting mechanism - difficulty will fall to the point it is again for those who remain, but with a lot of idle CPU power, the profit margin is always going to be razor thin, because one person's profit margin is another person's opportunity to steal it. |
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Bitcoin is barely 6-7 years old and hence we cannot consider it a big market. When it started there were very few traders and today, we have so many exchange websites and per day there are too many trades taking place and the transactions. I am happy with the market being small rather than too much competition and the price being stable.
Maybe it's not huge, but it's by far much larger every year on. All those startups and projects building up around bitcoin - it's just a matter of time when some of it becomes a huge success and drives both price and number of users up. It's not that important that it's not huge now, it's important the fact that it only gets bigger each year round. Bitcoin was far larger in 2013 than it is today. (Market cap, which is the only legitimate measure.) |
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I found this part interesting: Extraction costs fell to 155 rubles a barrel, helping to drive the Ebitda margin to 26 percent from 24.1 percent a year earlier, Rosneft said Wednesday in a statement. Its shares rose as much as 2.8 percent to 338 rubles in Moscow, the highest intraday price since May 5, and were at 337.4 rubles as of 11:28 a.m. local time. The cheapest producer in the world, which you would think to be a major advantage, is trading for under $5.50 a share. That is not a company people are optimistic about owning. |
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crude prices will indeed rise from this slump no matter what.that is for sure certain.investing in crude as a long term investment is a wise move.OPEC countries are storing crude oil in different parts of the world in very huge quantities to use when the price reaches a certain level.
There is not much of a chance for crude prices climbing back to the pre-2014 levels, unless all the major producers agree on systematic cuts to the output (which is not possible as some of the major producers are in the US and Canada). Shale oil is being pumped out with a production cost of just $30 to $40 per barrel, and hundreds of billions of barrels worth of new crude oil deposits have been discovered. At the same time, prior to 2014, everyone believed there wasn't much chance for oil to fall back to pre-2005 levels. There's a tendency to always believe that the current price and the current outlook is a permanent change, and that's never been the case. Shale producers could continue to go under, and Saudi Arabia could cut production to staunch their deficits. (Could, not will.) There is a major difference though. A majority of the shale oil producers will be profitable at crude prices of $45 to $50 per barrel. Two or three years ago, that was not the case. And this means that the prices will never go back to the pre-2014 levels. Because the extra demand will be met by the shale oil producers in no time. You raise a good distinguishing point, but it's not definitive. Never is forever, and there were people saying oil would never drop below [insert nominal value] with all the same certainty and with just as iron-clad reasoning. |
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Ethereum IPO "Project" will soon go back to sub 1 dollar price, because there's not enough fools to maintain the price.
Whales have to dump before buywalls are being deleted causing a permanent downtrend similar to other failed altcoins.
This means ETH is dead.
Thats just not possible. Even in the worst scenario it will fall only to 5-7$ then Rise above 15$ I agree with this. The cost of mining for most home miners is about $5 to 8. So that could be the bottom price. People buying Eth don't care what it costs to mine. No one is going to bid extra dollars for something because it has a certain production price. The cost of production is not the price floor. |
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That's not the correct way to figure it out, that's why I posted, to find out what the correct odds are. This explanation completely ignores how the number is generated, so cannot be the correct odds for each tier. This would be correct if a number was randomly generated between 0-10000 (except in the case of the last tier, he's wrong on the odds, it's 1:10,000; not 1:20,000). But that's not how the number is generated. It's far more complex than that and the process was detailed in my original post on the matter (and quoted above).
Okay, I thought it was correct since nobody said it is incorrect when it first was posted. But where did he make the mistake to make 10k to 20k? For some reason I can't figure out, he said the odds of rolling a 10,000 were 1:20,000, but that doesn't even make sense since the largest number you can roll is 10,000. There aren't 20,000 possibilities, so the odss can't be 1:20,000. If 00000 is a possibility, the odds would be 1:10,001, since there are 10,001 different possibilities. |
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when all bitcoin has been mined , resulting in deflation , and this is the only currency that is experiencing deflation , due to no longer supply and the demand will increasing but the supply of coin new is always zero it causes the price will continue to go up , up and up to the highest level, abosuletelly we won't live in that era, but i trully believe in that era 1 satoshi will be worthy
If your prediction will happen then the early adopters of bitcoins will be millionaire then, I like that and to be honest I am already investing a portion of my earnings on a daily basis. Have you even seen that one thread that has mathematical proof? That there will never be a time that we all bitcoins will be mined because of all the halvings that will occur, or at least we're probably long gone when it happens. I quite forgot the title of that thread is but if I remember correctly, it's probably only in Economics, Speculation, or Bitcoin Discussion. That said, we don't really have to worry about reaching the cap of 21 million coins because it will never be reached. Perhaps the "21 million cap" will not be reached for technical reasons, but a cap will still be reached unless the system is changed to scrap the cap. Because of technical anomalies, the cap is slightly less than 21 million (20999999.97690000 btc), but the cap will be reached as of block 6,930,000, as that is the first block where the block reward will no longer produce a single satoshi. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Long_TermThat is currently projected to be around year 2128, though at the current trend of evermore mining power, this estimate will continue to move up. ::Picture snip for size::This is a good trend if it will takes place base on the projection, I have to say I am amazed by the journey of bitcoins. Right now it is starting to increase its price significantly, I think we are not going nowhere but up. Lucky are those people who believe in bitcoins at the early stage as they will be very rich when that time comes. I think the price increase is delusion about the halving. Besides, bitcoin has been more than twice this high already before. We're not exactly breaking new ground. |
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crude prices will indeed rise from this slump no matter what.that is for sure certain.investing in crude as a long term investment is a wise move.OPEC countries are storing crude oil in different parts of the world in very huge quantities to use when the price reaches a certain level.
There is not much of a chance for crude prices climbing back to the pre-2014 levels, unless all the major producers agree on systematic cuts to the output (which is not possible as some of the major producers are in the US and Canada). Shale oil is being pumped out with a production cost of just $30 to $40 per barrel, and hundreds of billions of barrels worth of new crude oil deposits have been discovered. At the same time, prior to 2014, everyone believed there wasn't much chance for oil to fall back to pre-2005 levels. There's a tendency to always believe that the current price and the current outlook is a permanent change, and that's never been the case. Shale producers could continue to go under, and Saudi Arabia could cut production to staunch their deficits. (Could, not will.) |
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I don't see LPG catching on. It's far more likely to go full electric than LPG on a large scale for consumer vehicles. Its already here. Every petrol car ever made can be used with LPG and its quite a minor cost vs the cost of a vehicle. With such a large resource of fuel its quite silly they dont use it but with trucking I guess the benefits are more obvious and a business cant afford to ignore a worthwhile investment. The downside I know of is that LPG contains about 80% the energy of petrol so MPG is altered but this also can be countered with tuning as the knock or grading of LPG is the same as race fuel This is why I believe in free capital economics not big government, if we relied on politics some things would never occur and just be wasted. If we do see upset in oil such that USA does not import anymore for whatever reason, consumers will be on LPG I think as oil is used for plastic goods and LPG is simpler cleaner fuel that should be used in cities where people end up breathing it I'm not disputing the technology, I'm disputing its likelihood of being used in the consumer car market in any meaningful way. I don't see it catching on with consumers the same way LNG and CNG vehicles didn't catch on with consumers, even though it has all the same benefits as LPG; cleaner, cheaper, etc. These fuels have appeal to large trucking companies, but not consumers. My point is that electric vehicles will render LPG obsolete before it ever has a chance to make a dent in oil's market share of the vehicle market. |
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I think we'll see one more last spike and a very heavy dump on that one. Bearmarket after that.
A bear market is impossible with ethereum. It's generating too much news. This dao drama is only likely to generate a lot of interest in eth That's a pretty flimsy case for never having a bear market. Lots of things generate news. News is rather worthless, buyers are what matter. Bitcoin generates far more news, but that didn't keep it from crumbling to from $200 from $1200. Only the hype about the halving has managed to bring it back to 40% of it's high point. Yah, I think only news is not enough to drive the price higher. We need good development of the platform and many usages. the biggest driving force that can drive the price high is hype and i believe that ethereum has exhuasted that resource enough that there is nothing left in it to push theprice up. although you never know with eth since it is being controlled by the dev team that have the largest amount. No, better than hype is utility. If the coin is useful and fulfills a market function, it will be worth more long term. Hype is temporary. Utility is forever. (Or until it's not longer useful.) And to be clear, the hype is about Eth's utility. It's just that no one can even explain to me what the utility is. That's why I'm not taking it seriously. |
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I think we'll see one more last spike and a very heavy dump on that one. Bearmarket after that.
A bear market is impossible with ethereum. It's generating too much news. This dao drama is only likely to generate a lot of interest in eth That's a pretty flimsy case for never having a bear market. Lots of things generate news. News is rather worthless, buyers are what matter. Bitcoin generates far more news, but that didn't keep it from crumbling to from $200 from $1200. Only the hype about the halving has managed to bring it back to 40% of it's high point. Yah, I think only news is not enough to drive the price higher. We need good development of the platform and many usages. the biggest driving force that can drive the price high is hype and i believe that ethereum has exhuasted that resource enough that there is nothing left in it to push theprice up. although you never know with eth since it is being controlled by the dev team that have the largest amount. No, better than hype is utility. If the coin is useful and fulfills a market function, it will be worth more long term. Hype is temporary. Utility is forever. (Or until it's not longer useful.) |
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I'm interested in the odds of winning the top prize. On the face of it, it would seem the odds of rolling a 10,000 would be 1 in 10,000; however due to the way the hash is converted into a five digit number, I suspect this may not actually be the case. But I am not proficient in the math to be able to understand how the hash is converted anyway, so I cannot figure it out myself. (Side note, with the number of rolls this site gets per day, if 1 in 10,000 of them were winning $200, I don't see how the site could generate enough money from ads to stay in business.) So basically, I'm looking for the odds of rolling in each tier when taking into account the conversion from the hash to a 5 digit number. 0001 - 9885, implied odds: 98.85%; actual odds: ? 9886 - 9985, implied odds: 1.00%; actual odds: ? 9986 - 9993, implied odds: 0.08%; actual odds: ? 9994 - 9997, implied odds: 0.04%; actual odds: ? 9998 - 9999, implied odds: 0.02%; actual odds: ? 10000, implied odds: 0.01%; actual odds: ? Are the implied odds and the actual odds the same?From the site: How are rolls calculated?
Two strings are created :
STRING1 = "[NONCE]:[SERVER SEED]:[NONCE]"
STRING2 = "[NONCE]:[CLIENT SEED]:[NONCE]"
For your last roll :
STRING1 = "5250:1464797785-lIL61ZFZyuaDg8Bb1dxq42CbphyIyos2YUL9itCr3WKIdps1P7ns71eWWcuMjJDa-96.95.116.29:5250"
STRING2 = "5250:3EkoE4cLHBBrGCnx:5250"
Then HMAC-SHA512 is used to hash STRING1 with STRING2 as the secret key, giving us a 128 character hex string.
The first 8 characters of the hex string are taken and converted to a decimal.
This decimal is then divided by 429496.7295 and rounded off to the nearest whole number.
This whole number is used as your roll, with the maximum possible value being 10,000.
Emphasis added. I think that converting the string to a decimal, dividing the string by 429496.7295, and rounding to the nearest whole number probably makes the odds that the result is 10,000 far less than 1 in 10,000. Does anyone know? It has been calculated earlier in this thread that the possibility to win biggest price is 1 in 20000 Here is that post quoted for you. Can you calculate how much he get from publicity per roll compared to how much he gives away?
Too many unknowns, do you want to start a similar faucet? I can tell you probabilities of payouts, and therefore average payout from one roll (without referrals): [0 - 9885]: ~ 1/20000 + 9885/10000 = 0.98855 [9886 - 9985] ~ (9985-9886+1)/10000 = 0.01 (~ once per 100 rolls) [9986 - 9993] ~ (9993-9986+1)/10000 = 0.0008 (~ once per 1250 rolls) [9994 - 9997] ~ (9997-9994+1)/10000 = 0.0004 (~ once per 2500 rolls) [9998 - 9999] ~ (9999-9998+1)/10000 = 0.0002 (~ once per 5000 rolls) [10000] ~ 1/20000 = 0.00005 (~ once per 20 000 rolls) sanity check: 0.98855+0.01+0.0008+0.0004+0.0002+0.00005 = 1 average payout (using values right now): (0.98855*0.00000438)+(0.01*0.00004376)+(0.0008*0.00043764)+(0.0004*0.00437637)+(0.0002*0.04376368)+(0.00005*0.43763676) = 0.00003750 BTC Whoa, that's much bigger than I thought, but math checks out, it seems. That's not the correct way to figure it out, that's why I posted, to find out what the correct odds are. This explanation completely ignores how the number is generated, so cannot be the correct odds for each tier. This would be correct if a number was randomly generated between 0-10000 (except in the case of the last tier, he's wrong on the odds, it's 1:10,000; not 1:20,000). But that's not how the number is generated. It's far more complex than that and the process was detailed in my original post on the matter (and quoted above). |
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