Certainly 5-10 years back not one of these soi-disant sovereign nations had a single nuke that actually worked; outdated systems, rust, showmanship and lies were all that held the whole thing together.
Like the uasf, it was much more the threat of action that was the danger keeping the whole charade together than any action.
Maybe nowadays a few cities could get glassed, but if anyone claims they are certain about even that, they are wrong or lying.