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Crumbs, why would the stock be appreciating at this time? We can only fully tell where we stand once the chips arrive. Then we can tell if this company will be a dud.
You know most of the decline in ActM is because no investors here can focus for more than 20 minutes and want immediate results. You may be right, ActM could stink, but at this point we can't really tell. If we get hundreds of TH/s in November that might be enough, it might not.
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He was advising that the max profit was too high. If I'd listened then, perhaps we would be in a better place now.
Except its not a flaw because he will bust eventually. Unless the RNG is insecure. See my post above about different investor risk levels, can you code that? It would allow us to choose our own returns. The house edge would be a function of all the investors participation. |
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Alternative investor risk levels.
investment bracket:
2%
1.5%
1%
0.5%
0.25%
0.1%
the max bet is a function of the combined amounts invested under each bracket.
so if 100 bitcoin invested at 1% and 100 bitcoin invested at 0.5% the max profit will be 0.75%
either win/lose scenario:
100 bitcoin bet. win = 75 bitcoin to 1% investors and 0.25% to 0.5% investors. Of course lose its a negative instead
Dooglus, this might be better than changing the house edge, because then you leave the investors to make their choice.
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Dooglus, choose either 1% max profit or 0.5% max profit and let the math work. He will not stop playing so that means he will eventually lose everything.
Max profit at 75 btc is far too low in my opinion. The investors can divest if they want. No need to protect us, we know what we are getting ourselves into.
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Dooglus, the last time he played big he was down 4000 then made it back and then some. So that means he goes down a lot. Eventually he will go down so far he will have no coins left.
How about just leaving everything as it is.
See what happens.
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3. Now, if all you do is calculate what he WOULD have won had the dice result been shifted by 2, then I calculate +420,784 BTC!
He has said before that "the most common sequence of wins and losses is WLWLWL" or words to that effect. If he bets small, waiting for a win followed by a loss, and then bets big, expecting a win next, he'll be right about half the time. If you shift his big bets back two steps then he'll be right every time (since the two bets before the big one were W and L) - the big bet will land on the first observed W rather than the third hoped-for W. Surely that explains your observed result doesn't it? Or were you shifting in the opposite direction? Nice work dooglus! That explains everything. I checked, and yes, the shifting is in the right direction. So, this work exposes part of Nakowa's strategy, but in no way suggests that he has access to the server seed. The outcome in my graphs was extremely improbable due to "randomness" because it wasn't randomness, it was the result of him weighting his bets based on the outcome of his previous rolls. I should point out that Oleander suggested this a few pages back, so cudos to him too. Which means his entire play is a gamblers fallacy. Correct? |
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Increasing house edge of large bets is also a really good idea. This should be implemented immediately.
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increasing the house edge for bets with profit over 50 BTC (since none of the competition with a 1% edge allows bets that big anyway). This was obviously his way of 'showing me' that it won't help...
I think increasing the house edge for larger bets is a good idea Maybe the house edge could move (logaritmic/linear/whatever) with the bet size (from e.g. 50 BTC up) Or even better, the house edge could move based not on 50 btc and up, but rather as a function of % of invested. So: 1% house edge max bet up to 0.1% bankroll 1.5% house edge max bet up to 0.3% bankroll 1.8% house edge max bet up to 0.5% bankroll 2% house edge max bet over 0.5% bankroll. |
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increasing the house edge for bets with profit over 50 BTC (since none of the competition with a 1% edge allows bets that big anyway). This was obviously his way of 'showing me' that it won't help...
I think increasing the house edge for larger bets is a good idea, or lower the site max bet. Edit: raising HE as the bets get bigger is actually a good idea. We can still be competitive with Satoshi dice and Lets dice too. |
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How much have you lost on LAGcoin and ActiveScamming so far? 80%? 90%?
Your own portfolio is making a fool of you.
ALWAYS BET ON iCE...
I have lost a lot of money on Active, however this is money I made from Labcoin anyway so it hurts, but it was profits I have already made. I still hold Active and a little Labcoin, I am hoping for the best. At the moment I am essentially where I was when I started investing, which sucks but this is all very new to me so I consider it a huge learning experience. Also I always felt I was losing out because my money was not invested in Just-Dice for the past few weeks. Recently Just-Dice has taken a massive hit so effectly keeping my money on BTCT.co has worked out for the better negating loses that would have been made by Nakowa. So am I hurting? Yeah a lot but I have brought my average ActM down so I am hoping for an upturn at some point. Also I really don't think Ken is scamming. Scamming involved malice. |
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Just to get this straight, Peter you believe that Nakowa is leaving a trail to prove that he could have taken all the money and knows the server seed?
Well, I do sort of feel like a detective in an up-and-coming Hollywood thriller based around bitcoin, proveably-fair gambling, silk road, and the mysterious whales of the BTC underworld. Leaving the trail to prove that he could have taken it all would be a nice plot twist, don't you think?  But, no, I actually think it is more likely that either the nakowa2.txt file is bad, or that I did something wrong (in both Mathematica and Excel). Haha. Well one thing's for sure, a whale winning lots of money is creating huge amounts of interesting discussion and I find it all very interesting. |
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Just to get this straight, Peter you believe that Nakowa is leaving a trail to prove that he could have taken all the money and knows the server seed?
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In case you mean iCEBREAKERs name, no, he had it before ice.drill was conceived.
I know iCEBREAKER has been here far longer than ice.drill. But I mean his posts are jokes right? He slams Active every chance he gets along with crumbs, even setting up threads just to smash Active "because they care" and then makes posts like this? I can't imagine he is being serious, and if so. I feel bad for him. |
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how are the random numbers generated?
https://just-dice.com/lucky.txtServer generates server seed and gives user the hash for provability. user can select a client seed and each bet changs the nonce. According to a correct hash function, changing 1 bit should fully and utterly generate different output. |
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How long does the transfer usually take these days?
Everyone is confirming their shares but none of mine have been transferred, getting really worried... (I was one of the first to do the transfer) I just checked your transfer and it has been verified, so don't worry. We will be transferring most of the shares tomorrow as we did most of the verification today. Thank you so much |
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The fees were per-trade. If you can show me a trade where a user didn't get what they paid for... dum dum dum... -the actual trade-... then I think you might have something. Fortunately, the site code only charges trade fees after a trade has been completed and committed.
That you or that half-wit Mirca have the gall to post about honesty here is quite the joke. You publicly post scam accusations for sport just to harm your competition. Competition I might add, that summarily spanked you in all things that matter right up until the end.
That there is an "end" is completely out of my control. On even ground I have no doubt the MPEX fleecing would have continued. Perhaps now Bitfunder and Havelock can carry that torch.
Sock it scamboy. Your word ain't worth jack, go make a Bitcoin conference with Nefario or whatever. MPOE-PR, this is embarrassing. Time to stop. |
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I don't see the problem, Nakowa lost over 4000 bitcoin over 2 sessions yesterday and kept going until he was back. Think about it many gamblers have these long sessions where they are constantly fighting the house, yet we don't see them because their bets are so small.
Because every time Nakowa loses he deposits another large sum of bitcoins, it will take awhile for this guy to ruin.
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How long does the transfer usually take these days?
Everyone is confirming their shares but none of mine have been transferred, getting really worried... (I was one of the first to do the transfer) |
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if you read the paragraph it's clear that Ukyo is referring to Activemining, which is ran by a US citizen (Ken), who operates his own US hosting service ( http://www.axs.net/) while registering the company in Belize. There, I fixed it for you!  Ice, you really made a fool of yourself this time. Not like you care. You live for this shit.  |
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Given BTCT was just regulated to death, you may want to de-list any US based securities, even (especially) if they are hiding behind flimsy shell companies like Activemining's "Belize" entity.
The SEC is coming after anything with US connections/operations!
Can you provide any proof for your statement? In case you didn't know Ice has invested in icedrill a competitor to Active Mining. So when you read his anti active mining posts thats why. He is also a common forum troll along with crumbs. |
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