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2561  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Everyone has a price, or do they...? on: June 21, 2012, 10:13:53 PM
While this is true: The higher it gose the more i wana hold on to them!

I still better sell 90% at $1000

I hope that if the price ever goes into the hundreds there's a robust enough bitcoin economy that I don't need to cash out.
2562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 21, 2012, 05:21:56 PM
Up, Buy. I'm not sure what that is it terms of long or short.

Although Iv'e missed when I wanted to do so now.

Well, if you want to buy on leverage, because you really, really believe the price is going to go up enough from here, then take out a cash advance on your credit card and transfer the money to an exchange.  I mean, really, that's no different than goofing around with bitcoinica in terms of value lost or gained.

Its completely different. You don't have to go into debt to trade with leverage.

I don't think it's that different.  If you're right, and the price goes up, you'll sell, take the profit, and pay off the debt.  If you're wrong and the price goes down, then you'll eventually sell, and owe the bank the difference between what you borrowed and what you ended up getting from the sell.  In the latter case, you lost value.

With leverage on bitcoinica, you have to deposit some value, and then you can magnify your profits with loans from bitcoinica.  If you buy on leverage, and the price goes up, you'd eventually sell, take the profit, and the rest, minus what you initially deposited, is returned to bitcoinica.  If you're wrong and the price goes down, you'd eventually sell or be liquidated, and you'd lose some or all of what you deposited.  Again, in the being-wrong case, you lose value.

We could quibble over which one is more efficient or safer, but in terms of going long, there isn't much difference in principle.
2563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 21, 2012, 03:47:14 PM
20k wall has gone!
rally time?
online ppl on btcchart is increasing

You can bet he'll be back with his 20kBTC, and if he's waiting to sell it for more, then he'll probably have to sell into the bids; and my guess is that when he does that he'll accept significant slippage on the downside because he's going to try to sell at a top.  Whatever price rises we're in store for, if any, are probably going to be nothing more than an illusion.

2564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 21, 2012, 03:25:15 PM
Up, Buy. I'm not sure what that is it terms of long or short.

Although Iv'e missed when I wanted to do so now.

Well, if you want to buy on leverage, because you really, really believe the price is going to go up enough from here, then take out a cash advance on your credit card and transfer the money to an exchange.  I mean, really, that's no different than goofing around with bitcoinica in terms of value lost or gained.
2565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 21, 2012, 01:59:13 PM
Buy $5, sell $5. On the one hand profit $0, but on the other loss $0. Trading has been really boring lately.

Howerver now :-)

I wish there was some way of leveraged trading at the moment.

Do you want to go long?
2566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arbitrage opportunities on: June 21, 2012, 01:58:25 PM
There is a major shortage of bitcoins on Intersangos euro market.

https://intersango.com/orderbook.php?currency_pair_id=2

A purchase of just 200 BTC will drive the price to €6. Compare that to MtGox where there are 23,000 BTC for sale at €5.44

If this persists Im going to have to withdraw all my funds from Intersango and send them to Gox, which is a pain in the ass, because Intersango is much easier to use. You dont have to send copies of your id and proof of address to Intersango. Gox is being hobbled by the US banking cartel and I dont want to deal with them.

Win for the guy with 23,000BTC for sale.  Wink
2567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arbitrage opportunities on: June 21, 2012, 12:53:20 PM
There is now a €0.30 difference in the price between MtGox and Intersango. 

Can some of you european miners or bitcoin sellers  please sell your coins on Intersango instead of MtGox. There is a shortage on bitcoins for sale on Intersangos euro market.

That's interesting.  That may be why that huge wall is on MtGox.  Its owner may be speculating that Intersango's prices will compel people to buy into his wall, and thus allow him to sell such a large amount at a price he wants without slippage.
2568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 21, 2012, 12:14:54 PM
There is no manipulator.  The ask wall is there because its owner is hoping to sell 20k+ bitcoins at that price.

Thanks for being so patient and trying to teach people.

Guys, this is perfectly normal. 21k BTC at 6.75 USD, if he bought within the last months around 5.2, give over 32k USD profit in a relatively short time. We're talking a potential 30% short-term profit here! Even if everyone is quite bullish, why in the world would people be surprised? If nobody were to do such offers, wouldn't that be more reason to worry? In fact, current volume is somewhat lower, not higher, than I'd have expected.

Feel free to be bullish, the market is hard to read right now so I have no complaints, but expecting that no one would take profits is unreasonable.

Exactly.  As soon as the price starts going up a bunch of people start talking as if nobody will ever take profits, or people won't realize profits until they double, or triple, or quadruple their investment.  That is a large part of what happened last year, and it was unhealthy.

The fact is, the price simply is not going to shoot up like it did last year, because people are competing to take profits now.  The asks are never going to run out, and, in fact, the higher the price goes the more difficult it will be for it to go higher, because it'll take ever more money to move the same absolute distances on the price line.  The guy who buys 20kBTC at $6.75 is probably going to put those things up for sale at $8.something and realize an incredible return compared to most other markets.  And there's probably some guy with a load of bitcoins bought at $6.something who'll toss them up at $7.something and put a stopper on frenzied buying toward $8.

Since the 2012 high, I expect bitcoin growth to be much slower and much less dramatic than it has in the past, and that makes me feel more optimistic for its success.  Mark my words, in 2013 we'll still be visiting single digit prices (and I'm not even factoring hacks and other disruptive shitstorms into that assessment).
2569  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 21, 2012, 10:33:58 AM
Received 50% of my funds as well! I added a comment to the claims page that they could send the BTC directly to an address of mine instead of Mtgoxcode if that was easier for them. A few hours later I received the BTC as an BTC transaction, so it looks like BTC transactions are easier for them right now. So if you are waiting for an mtgox code it might be a good idea to add an BTC address as well.

Thank you very much Genjix! Keep up the good work! Looking forward to the other 50% Smiley

I did the same thing yesterday, and nothing.
2570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 21, 2012, 03:34:45 AM
The ask wall is there to scare people into selling so the manipulator can accumulate before breaking $7.2. We're in an upward channel in a strong trend.

There is no manipulator.  The ask wall is there because its owner is hoping to sell 20k+ bitcoins at that price.
2571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 21, 2012, 02:47:52 AM
I'm sure there's more where that came from.  This have been too positive lately.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see the order book flip around.
2572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 21, 2012, 02:09:16 AM
I'll call this one "It's about time".

2573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 21, 2012, 12:42:39 AM
Wooooooot 2012 high and all the greedy Bitcoinica fucks out in the cold.



2012 high was 7.2 Huh
But market capitalization is 2012 high Smiley

http://www.blockchain.info/charts/market-cap

very interesting

The price would need to be a little over $20/BTC to exceed the 2011 market cap high.
2574  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: https://bitdaytrade.com Bitcoin Gold & Commodities margin trading on: June 21, 2012, 12:10:32 AM
Bitcoinica may have forever spoiled Bootstrap.  Also, there's some information missing from your website about how you secure your databases.  Wink
2575  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 20, 2012, 09:07:39 PM
Has anyone taken a MtGox code?
2576  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 20, 2012, 05:53:43 PM

just got my 50% (40btc) back! waiting for the other half!
nice to see that something is really happening! Cheesy keep up the good work!

What have you done besides the claim ?

My blance at bitcoinica is larger than 80btc...


+1 were you verified before? did they happen to find your hash for the password?
was not verified, and they got my password hash, and i got my password.
and i did also have alot of guesses on my positions and balances. i can't really figure out why they could check me that fast, because of the uncertainty.

Thats almost the same as mine, approx balance, no position, exact deposits and withdraws, and password. No emails so far.

Yep, me too.  Approximate balance, exact deposits and MtGox codes, correct password (and I'm assuming they had my hash since I didn't get an error), and I didn't have any positions at bitcoinica.  I've gotten all of the emails everyone has gotten, but other than that, I have no idea what the status of my claim is.
2577  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 20, 2012, 05:18:00 PM
just got my 50% (40btc) back! waiting for the other half!
nice to see that something is really happening! Cheesy keep up the good work!

Nice.  How do you receive it?  Bitcoin transaction or MtGox code?  I still haven't gotten a response to any of my email requests for claim status.
2578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why aren't I filthy rich yet? It's been like two months. on: June 20, 2012, 05:16:37 PM
Seems so simple, but I hadn't thought of looking at things from the perspective of market cap; and you're right, it is pretty remarkable.

Yes, the slow and steady undercurrents are what will propel Bitcoin in relative obscurity, not the dazzling spike highs and emotionally-engaging news stories. Pandora's box has been opened - Bitcoin is an idea more than a thing, and now that the a good portion of the world knows about it, it cannot be stopped.

Bitcoin - It's more than a thing, it's an idea.
2579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: June 20, 2012, 04:49:14 PM
It was funny to see all that cautious selling below $6.5. Now they'll have to buy back!

One thing I've learned over the past year, you pretty much always get a chance to buy back below your sell point.  If I had sold below $6.5 I wouldn't be worried at all right now.

remember every time you learn something the market adjusts itself for it  Wink

Well, of course you'll note that I'm not selling any of my coins and haven't for a while.   Wink
2580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why aren't I filthy rich yet? It's been like two months. on: June 20, 2012, 04:48:19 PM
The recent stable price was actually a period of quite substantial growth.
Bitcoin is currently in a super inflation phase and the price kept up with this inflation. It's very clear to see this growth on a market capitalization chart.

http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

The value overall of bitcoin increased substantially in the last 4 months - a $5 bitcoin 1 week ago is a healthier sign than a $5 bitcoin 3 months ago.
Bitcoin (the network) is worth more now than at the $7+ January high.



Seems so simple, but I hadn't thought of looking at things from the perspective of market cap; and you're right, it is pretty remarkable.
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