Hey guys, I've played a bit on Moon3D and I have some questions about the house edge and advertised odds.
The house edge of Moon3D is advertised as 1.5%, which means the median bust should be 1.985x (1.975x accounting for the social multiplier).
Let's examine bustabit, which has an advertised house edge of 1% and an expected median of 1.98x.
Median over last 1000 games: 1.98x (expected)
Median over last 2000 games: 1.93x (below expected)
Median over last 5000 games: 1.96x (below expected)
Median over last 10000 games: 1.96x (below expected)
Median over last 20000 games: 1.97x (below expected)
Median over last 40000 games: 1.98x (expected)
Median over last 100000 games: 1.98x (expected)
As you can see, above ~40,000 games or so, the median converges towards the expected median of 1.98x. We can presume that 40,000 is a fair number of games to backtest in order to view the expected median and eliminate variance. Obviously, the more you backtest, the more variance is eliminated, and the true median will approach the expected median asymptotically. If, beyond 100,000 games, the expected median is not the same as the true median, it's either that the odds are being advertised incorrectly, or that a 1 in several trillion event is unfolding before our eyes. Usually the former.
Now on Moon3D:
Expected median: 1.975x
Median over last 100,000 games: 1.94x
This suggests that the actual house edge is over 3% higher than what is advertised. To the Moon3D team, I'm just wondering why there's such a large discrepancy... hopefully someone can enlighten me. Thanks!
PS. Also there's the fact that bustabit allows for the median to be checked in the chat but as far as I can tell this feature is not available on Moon3D, and you need to download and run the code to do the same.
I never played with moon3d. And want to use and play. But I have really serious question. Firstly can I played in Moon3d how completely anonym? I don't want to send any docs or pass KYC. Can anyone help me? |
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The lighting network is far from being the next level of anything. For this to happen, first of all Bitcoin must pass through a number of stages. Other networks don't matter much. Bitcoin is very important in this area as in every field.
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Hands down, Bitcoin is getting to be interesting as the bear is kicked out and the bull is ushered in...
I am not sure that bull has come. But most likely, these price increases will accelerate the bull. I don't think you'd be in a hurry, I'm sure we'il have more opportunities. |
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Over the past couple weeks, our team at Diginomics Corporation has been putting together an online tutorial on How To Fork Bitcoin. Although the course is still in development, and will be released gradually, lesson-per-lesson, over the next couple weeks, I wanted to make an early offering to the people of bitcointalk. The first lessons are available immediately with the following lessons to come online in the next few days. For the first 21 people who use the code 'Xrs3&2sde' registration into the course is absolutely free. For those who use the code afterwards, a discount of 15% will be available with the code. You also get an additional 10% off when you pay in bitcoin. We designed this course for the people who are interested in forking bitcoin to begin mining a new chain or creating their own cryptocurrency from genesis. This course allows you to: - Understand how forking works
- Set up your development environment and fork the bitcoin core repository
- Introduce technical customizations to the blockchain
We have also designed a support forum for students that is available for questions about any of the courses. Instructors check into the forum periodically to answer questions and post updates. Please take a look at the support forum. If you have any feedback for the course please contact us directly or leave it in this thread. Once again, bear with us as the course content is updated (written tutorials, video screencaps, and timed examinations). Thank you for reading and we look forward to seeing you inside the course! What are you waiting for? Get registered now! First of all, I wish you success in your new initiative. But there will be a general criticism. We've spent 2 years on the fork. Everybody knows about Bitcoin Cash, but there are so many Bitcoin forks in the market that you'll be amazed at once. Here is the part I will criticize. We don't need any forks on bitcoin. I don't even think we need a fork on any network. I think that only fork can be accepted for system upgrade. I advise you to be more sensitive about this. I'm sure your training programs will be useful. I hope you'll be very successful. |
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OMG! They've copied cex.io perfectly. I never seen like that copy  I don't know if it is SCAM or not but they are untrustable, I am sure of that. |
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We reached $8000 in the past few days leading to the conference. I remember last year everyone was hopeful about it, but the bear market spared no one. This time we have Bakkt announcements and all kinds of stuff I saw outlined here: https://cryptobriefing.com/nobody-will-sell-bitcoin-8000/It's probably going to correct a bit, but the rise is real. Bitcoin price once decided to rise. FOMO started. After that, every excuse is enough to raise the price of Bitcoin. |
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Hello!
Is there an official or proven Bitcoin web wallet? To be able to create a wallet without exchanges.
I recommend to you use official Bitcoin wallet which you can find in https://bitcoin.org/en/choose-your-walletThere are a lot of wallets here which you can use with secure. |
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gotsatoshi.com for a period of time has put a countdown to revealing the real identity of satoshi, the bitcoin's creator.
They seem to have some info or at least some influence as they are covered in various media.
What can we expect to get after 12 hours? The real satoshi? Is he willing to reveal himself or is someone blowing his cover?
Or just another fake satoshi who is trying to get attention?
They will most likely sell your mail addresses for advertising. I'm sure Satoshi is much smarter than that! |
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As per CEO recent blog post: https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/bitcoin-futures-custody-bakkts-differentiated-approach-59b88d6984b5User acceptance testing for bitcoin futures custody and trading planned for July
In conjunction with our exchange and clearing partners at ICE, well be working with our customers over the next several weeks to prepare for user acceptance testing (UAT) for futures and custody, which we expect to start in July. Well provide more details in upcoming posts, but we expect to use UAT to ensure that customers have time to onboard and can test the trading and custody model weve built to their satisfaction. So another good news that will really push the price of bitcoin to 5 digits this coming months. Brace yourself for another run if this come into fruition this July.  And then fully operation and live before the end of the year. Do you really think that BAKKT is useful for us? It seems to me to increase the manipulative effect on the market. I don't think they will work for us. |
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Right now Bitcoin is climbing up so fast, In the CMC Bitcoins' price is $7,875.26. Its a great news, Do you think it will be the same as what happened on 2017 ? What are your thoughts about it ?
FOMO has just loaded. People have been living how looking at BTC price for a long time. And it was the beginning of the ascension. I hope it keep going. |
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Arkadaşlar WIRE Idax'ta listeli gözükmüyor bir bilgisi olan var mı? Delist mi edildi?
Wire ekibi açıklama yapmıştı konuyla ilgili bir kaç günlük bir ağ güncellemesi ve sistem iyileştirmesi yapılacağı için trade askıya alındı. Tekrar açılacak. |
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grafik işliyor.
4200 direnç tepesi kırıldığını görünce biraz yukarıdan da olsa aldım ve satmadım.
şu anda tek dikkat etmeniz gereken yatay güçlü destek dirençler.
8400 küsürlerde güçlü direnç var. haftalık grafik üzerinden bakın görürsünüz.
bu aşıldığında 10000 dolar sıradaki. ama bu rakamı kolaylıkla kıracağını sanmam. bir yerde zorlanmalı ve onun altından güç toplamalı ki, o zorlandığı yeri tekrar kırdığında güçlü desteğe dönüştürebilsin.
Hocam ben bu yazıları 2017'den çok hatırlıyorum. Twitter'da çakma kripto fenomenleri vardı. Bitcoin 5000$ oldu düzeltme başlıyor dediler. 6000$ oldu bu yükselişin düşüşü var dediler. 10000$ oldu her buradan asla yükselmez dediler. 15'den sonra sesler azaldı ve cılızlaştı. Bitcoin'de FOMO ve insanların desteği başladığı anda fiyatın nereye gideceğini kestirmek zor oluyor. Ha demiyorum ki durmadan yükselecek. Aksine yine düşecek. Ama Bitcoin'in grafikçileri aldattığını belki bin defa gördüm. He şu da işin bir gerçeği grafik çizen arkadaşlar (buradan sonra terimlerim tamamen sallama çünkü teknik analiz bilgim yok denecek kadar az) bak OBO oluştur diyor. Sonra BTC ters köşe yapıyor. Birileri çıkıyor, golden cross diyor Yok bu direnç geçilmez, yok o destek delinmez... Bitcoin çıkarken kimse 19800$'a çıkacağına inanmıyordu, düşerkende 3200$'lere... Demem o ki keyfini çıkarın. BTC'de kalın, huzurlu kalın |
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Elon Musk ve Jeff Bezos gibi isimler Mars üzerine odaklanmışken, başka bir milyarder isim Tim Draper sıkı sıkıya dünyadaki yatırımlarını arttırmayı ve yatırımları hakkında açıklamalarda bulunmayı sürdürüyor. ABD hükümeti tarafından yapılan açık arttırmada 632 dolarlık birim fiyattan 30.000 BTC satın almasıyla bilinen risk sermayedarı, daha sonra lider kripto para birimi Bitcoinin (BTC) 250.000 dolarlık birim fiyata ulaşacağı tahmini ile piyasanın gündemine oturmuştu.
Olaya dediğin yerden bakarsak bence en akıllıları Draper'miş. Musk ve Bezos parayı dışarda ararken Draper, dünya da paraya para demiyor olabilir. Üstelik Musk ve Bezos Ay'a Mars'a yapılacak olan seyahatlerin parasını oraların parası ile değil, dünya üzerindeki para ile yapacaklar. Hatta bu konudaki ödemelerin gelecekte kripto ile yapıldığını düşünsenize ne büyük ironi olurdu |
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BAKKT ile ilgili çok fazla söylenti dolaşıyor. Daha bugün düşen bir haberde halen SEC ile görüşmeleri olduğundan bahsediliyordu. Bugün nereden böyle bir şey çıktı emin değilim. Ayrıca bu yükseliş 1 hafta 10 gün önce temel yaptı bununla ilgili olduğunu sanmıyorum. Belki buradan sonra etkisi olabilir. Ya da belki bugünkü yükselişde etkisi olmuştur.
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Hello guys, I have an idea which I think can work but I'll like for it to be a collective effort and here's my Idea. Most punters play to win and make profit same for me also but recently I came up with an idea and I've tried it and it works for a while not untill the greed kicks in then I spoil everything I've worked for; the plan is use $5 and place a bet on a 1.3 to 1.5 odd continuously for a month let me show you the outcome
5*1.35^30=40642.74 and 5*1.5^30=958755.29.
Irrespective of which odd is settled for it's a huge return with just $5. So here's my idea guy what do you think of it? If its a good idea I'll keep an eye on this thread.
My games for today
Sweden - Allsvenskan: Norrkoping vs IFK Goteborg
Result: 12 odd 1.3 or 12&O1.5 odd 1.64
This is my best pick for today what do you think guys
I've been betting for years. I've lost all my moves against the system. I'm sure there's a measure against your method. Make your math yourself. And try it without betting. Just pretend but not play first time. |
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It's no secret that cryptocurrencies don't receive many plaudits in the mainstream media as reliable means of payment. Critics have even claimed that Bitcoin "sucks" as a payment mechanism. Yet, despite that blinkered skepticism, cryptocurrency payments actually grew last year. Payment processor BitPay reported a "record" $1 billion in transaction revenue in 2018, with its business-to-business (B2B) operations increasing by 255 percent compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the use of cryptocurrencies in such economically unstable countries as Venezuela and India has surged, as people turn to the likes of Bitcoin and Dash to escape from increasingly worthless national currencies. Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/tipping-point-kroger-starbucks-may-ignite-retail-cryptoActually, it's not just Bitpay. Small businesses in a very far eastern country even accept payment by crypto. At this point, big companies such as Starbucks can be effective. But there is a problem with me; current exchange rate. A reliable online platform for individual P2P exchanges should offer a considerable price. I think it should be preserved about rates in both seller and buyer manner. Nowadays, there is an increasing number of projects working on the payment with crypto money. However, most of them work in the form of instant Crypto-Fiat-Crypto. As it's supposed to be. Already crypto-crypto in the form of a tool is not needed. |
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Money has been the most powerful motivation tool on earth for centuries! Therefore, we must not underestimate the effect of money on people. Yes, Satoshi has created something perfect for people to work for, but we don't know if he did it for money!
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Bir anda yaygınlaşacağını düşünmesem de uzun vadede iyi yönetilen bir proje her şekilde güzel bir alternatif olabilir. Bunun yanında MenaPayin belirli bir bölgeye odaklanması da bu açıdan mantıklı. Ayrıca hakkında bir şeyler okumuştum daha önce. Türk yöneticileri olduğunu da biliyorum. Bakalım neler olacak.
İstanbul ofislerinde ziyaret etmek isteyenleri de güzel şekilde ağırlıyorlar. Ben dahil birkaç arkadaş daha gitti. İsteyenlere duyurulur  İstanbul ofisleri derken? Baya ciddi ciddi burada ofisleri mi var? Bu ekstra bir şey sanki. Türkiye planı olan çok proje gördüm ama Türkiye'de henüz ICO ya da IEO aşamasındayken ofis açmak ciddi bir iş. Ben bir yakından göz atayım en iyisi |
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Abi bıkmadılar bir türlü ya. Yani şu fork olayı artık yemiyor ama halen devam ediyorlar. ZEC zaten Bitcoin çatallamasından geliyor şimdi kendi de çatallıyor. Z oldu Y yarın birgün X olur Q olur... Yani bunun arkasında anlaşmazlık falan olduğunu düşünmüyorum. Artık yaptıkları resmen fiyatı yükselmeye çalışmak belli ki alttan alttan kendileri de satış yapıyorlar ve para kazanıyorlar. Ben artık farklı bir şey olduğuna inanmıyorum. |
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"Piyasalar beklentinin tersine hareket eder" sözüne bir güncelleme yapılması şart oldu sanırım. Bu sefer piyasa; ortada hiçbir şey yokken, kimse bir beklenti içinde değilken ileriye doğru hareket etti. Düzeltmesini bile kendi kendine çaktırmadan hallediyor şu sıralar. 7500'den aşağı kırdı 7000'i gördü. Altlar biraz kızarsa da olumlu hava sürüyor şimdilik...
Hocam alt'lar kızarmayı geçti yerin dibini görmeye gidiyor. Birçok altcoin son 2 sene fiyatlarının altını görmeye başladı. Ve bu çok bullish duruyor bana. Son boğa öncesi altların halini hatırlıyorum inanılmaz geri çekilmeler olmuştu. |
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