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2601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 27, 2014, 11:49:10 PM
But if some implementation of SC (I do not think SC as idea) become scam or there is a bug then bitcoins may be lost.

Bitcoin may take a knock if 10% of the coins go missing. But that would actually simply increase the value of everyone else's holdings.
2602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 27, 2014, 09:04:04 PM
2603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 27, 2014, 08:54:30 PM
Epic battle of our time sounds good. Bulls versus Bears. Good vs Evil Smiley
2604  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fourth 3dMACD bar will be GREEN! (on 28th October 2014) on: October 27, 2014, 07:43:09 PM
It is now or never Smiley
2605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 27, 2014, 07:40:49 PM
What got me first into bitcoin was a talk by Rick falvinge from a 2012 bitcoin conference. He talked about the rise of the internet and the end of banking. Superb, funny and to the point.

Did you hear his talk at the 2011 bitcoin conference in Prague, too? It's worth a watch, although parts are similar to the 2012 London one.




Actually I am mistaken. It was that one. But I only watched it in december 2012 Smiley
2606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 27, 2014, 07:31:22 PM
you are saying the next 24 hrs are critical?

Yes, the next <insert time period here> is definitely critical.
2607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Predicting Flash crashes (solution found?) on: October 27, 2014, 07:25:41 PM
Im not sure if i understand it correctly...

The only way to get BTC to an exchange to "sell" them is via sending them from some (my personal for example) wallet, and this transaction is always visible on blockchain...

Or am i wrong, thats the only way to get BTC to exchange?

One route to sell coins is to send them with a blockchain transaction to the exchange over the bitcoin network. But you can wire fiat currency to the exchanges. For example you could wire 10 million dollars to bitfinex if you were stupid enough. You might then loan btc from someone in a swap and sell them on the exchange - you might manipulate the price downwards significantly. You could then close your short contracts for profit. You then take your money out of the exchange. End result the price moved, but no bitcoins moved on the blockchain.
2608  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 27, 2014, 07:20:07 PM
Is the wind turning?   Wink

Shorts at ATH for the year and the price is holding at 355. Three day MACD green candles are lining up. Meanwhile the bears are sure the price is going to fall lower, they have been conditioned to expect it. Interesting inflection point.
2609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 27, 2014, 06:38:12 PM
What got me first into bitcoin was a talk by Rick falvinge from a 2012 bitcoin conference. He talked about the rise of the internet and the end of banking. Superb, funny and to the point.
2610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 27, 2014, 06:31:07 PM
Last chance to get out at these extremely high prices. We're heading to 250 soon.

Thanks for the warning. Could you tell me this weeks lottery numbers again?
2611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 27, 2014, 12:07:58 AM
Amir Taaki and Cody Wilson are developing Dark Wallet for BTC. Then BTC will be 100% anonymous (if you use Dark Wallet of course). There's nothing you can do to stop them.

Laudable aims, though I would prefer 'privacy wallet' or something a little less deliberately provocative. Whilst I agree with the premise of the project in principle I think they are terrible PR for bitcoin right now.

They are being provocative on purpose.

Great. Everyone is free to do what they like. But IMO bitcoin as a growing idea and concept billowing out into the wider world is provocative enough right now without creating a poorly named wallet and saying you have no problem with ISIS using it on a bbc interview.

Despite what Marcus says about the 'sheeple' wanting the best form of private money going, the general public take a dim view of supporting terrorism and tend to believe whatever rubbish the MSM feed them as the truth.
2612  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2014, 11:59:41 PM
Amir Taaki and Cody Wilson are developing Dark Wallet for BTC. Then BTC will be 100% anonymous (if you use Dark Wallet of course). There's nothing you can do to stop them.

Laudable aims, though I would prefer 'privacy wallet' or something a little less deliberately provocative. Whilst I agree with the premise of the project in principle I think they are terrible PR for bitcoin right now.
2613  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2014, 11:49:33 PM
Please explain to me what the perceived value of Bitcoin is?

Other than being decentralised, frictionless, borderless, non counterfeitable, cryptographically secure and algorithmically scarce?


Everyone on here knows that Bitcoin is better than fiat however, for the rest of the world if they don't have any Bitcoin...why should they go through the hassle of using it?

Why did you buy it, obsess over it, etc? Smiley
2614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2014, 11:48:11 PM
If crypto goes mainstream it will not be anonymous.

if cash goes mainstream it could never be anonymous ... see how stupid that sounds?

Market will choose the best money available and that will be anonymous, private. Anything less is shitty prison money for slave plantations, even sheeple get that.

I don't think the average person really cares that their financial transactions are totally anonymous. The average person does not understand the simple concept of inflation.

Markets choose the best option available to them. Completely anonymous cryptocurrency will be stifled by the existing power structures if it tries to rise up. Bitcoin or a successor is good enough.

The comparison with cash is not particularly useful. Cash is being phased out in the Western world fairly rapidly, with not a whimper from the sheeple either.


2615  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2014, 11:16:21 PM
Please explain to me what the perceived value of Bitcoin is?

Other than being decentralised, frictionless, borderless, non counterfeitable, cryptographically secure and algorithmically scarce?
2616  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: October 26, 2014, 11:01:11 PM
It took about 2 months for the longs to get squeezed, after they had overextended significantly, and there were only 3k shorts at that time, so buying pressure from those was very low once we broke below $600. There are still about 30-50k btc long positions that will allow short covering.

I think we will see a continued downtrend and make a new low, with shorts growing to new highs along the way. Capitulation brought many many more coins to exchanges, so volume will seem a lot higher than previous months. Either way, the short squeeze is going to be glorious when it finally happens.

You could be right. Shorts at ATH now already though.
2617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2014, 10:58:26 PM
If crypto goes mainstream it will not be anonymous.
2618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Predicting Flash crashes (solution found?) on: October 26, 2014, 06:08:31 PM
You are right and wrong. Blockchain analysis could be helpful but someone with lots of coins/fiat on exchange could massively move the price and because it is 'off chain' not leave a blockchain imprint.

If bitcoin days destroyed rockets upwards, if there are documented cases of huge numbers of coins moving to or from an exchange then perhaps something is afoot and you could predict a major market move. But it is not a perfect science.
Markets don't use the blockchain. Watching bitcoin days destroyed or large transactions has no corellation to markets. You can only corellate them after the fact, but nobody has ever researched this to conclude any probability of that phenomenon. It's right up there with "The Weekend Dip." It's just magical thinking. You can massively move the market without ever even having a Bitcoin wallet and I suspect that's a lot of what is going on.

I think we actually are in agreement cbeast. Smiley
2619  Economy / Speculation / Re: Predicting Flash crashes (solution found?) on: October 26, 2014, 05:07:50 PM
You are right and wrong. Blockchain analysis could be helpful but someone with lots of coins/fiat on exchange could massively move the price and because it is 'off chain' not leave a blockchain imprint.

If bitcoin days destroyed rockets upwards, if there are documented cases of huge numbers of coins moving to or from an exchange then perhaps something is afoot and you could predict a major market move. But it is not a perfect science.
2620  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 26, 2014, 05:00:49 PM
Having ruminated over side chains for a bit I think they in principle could be a good thing for btc adoption but may change what btc is today irreparably as a concept. If they operate a fixed peg via the 'two way peg' to btc then they are not inflationary. I think any side chain which has any kind of float between btc and SC will struggle to find btc users, thought I can see money being chased by unscrupulous SC developers in this type of enterprise initially, and this could be potentially inflationary or disruptive to btc. Fixed peg approaches will be stuck with the price volatility that btc currently enjoys though years in the future this may not be a problem.

If we take the moneroSC which potentially boasts anonymous coin transfers between individuals on the side chain. Then really it is just a dark pool of locked BTC changing hands as monero tokens off chain. The off and on ramp addresses can still be tracked which may limit the attractiveness if it is not widely used. I can't see this taking off to be honest except in black market use. In time the bitcoin blockchain will be mapped out by governments and tied to identities closely. On and off ramps will be monitored closely by Western governments through regulation.

Say someone (blockstream) starts the sidechain nanoBTC, designed to be ultra low transaction fee, and near instantaneous, suitable for micropayments online and in shops etc. The aim being to support huge volume (de)centralised transactions off chain but denominated in pegged side chain btc. The main stumbling blocks for adoption like any alt would be utility and acceptance as a currency. It would then need to be supported by big players in the industry (bitpay, coinbase, circle, other payment gateways etc) who agree to integrate nanoBTC with a big grand opening at the outset. It could have a branded corporate america friendly logo.

How would that work in practice? At first swapping between standard BTC and nanoBTC is possible via a single click in your centralised wallet, allowing the security conscious to maintain funds in native BTC with a hotwallet in nanoBTC. Perhaps this happens 'under the hood' without the consumer realising during transactions between certain companies. Over time, barring security disasters people gradually stop using btc natively for transactions and instead use nanoBTC as cash everything online. NanoBTC becomes a ubiquitous payment token but is still exhangeable for BTC and the bitcoin network is maintained as before with relatively few TPS, simply acting as a backing store of value, and in time average joe is unaware of btc at all.

BTC is held natively as a commodity by investment houses and investors in ETF's. Perhaps in time the value of BTC is actually maintained by use of nanoBTC globally.  Whoever controls the incentives behind the nanoBTC network gets very rich.

Edit: this could be how the unit change dilemma is solved, allowing regular joe public to not be put off by the psychology of spending hundreds/thousands of $ for a small amount of btc.

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