The floor must be close with increasing resistence felt at lower levels, will we be seeing a trend reversal soon ... ?
Another problem is that there isn't a clearly defined bottom. So we never know when the trend reversal will happen. The bottom is in when people begin to realise how far the price has risen from the low (say 150) and realise how greedy it was to expect the price to drop by >95%. Then they buy in. |
|
|
|
I don't ignore the long interest. It is half what it was earlier in 2014 and near the lowest levels for nearly a year.
Whereas short interest is highly correlated with the price and in a much higher range.
You ignore that coin supply is limited, regardless of the price per coin. You haven't been around long enough to see a bullish move in btc yet..
You don't know how much I have been around. I know a little thing or two about BTC and BTC trading, in case you were wondering, I didn't enter this game the same date (8 january 2015) of the creation of an account with the word "trollin" in it. This doesn't mean that I am here to post mindless trolling with this account (aside from a few pics and gifs for fun that is  ). I am here to post my opinions on bitcoin backed by concrete arguments and anybody is welcome to question them and discuss about them I am perfectly aware of bitcoin price history and a lot of my threads are exactly about them Well use your original account then instead of hiding behind a cowardly troll sock puppet alt. |
|
|
|
|
I don't ignore the long interest. It is half what it was earlier in 2014 and near the lowest levels for nearly a year.
Whereas short interest is highly correlated with the price and in a much higher range.
You ignore that coin supply is limited, regardless of the price per coin. There are only so many coins available for btc swap. You haven't been around long enough to see a bullish move in btc yet..
|
|
|
|
It survived the weekend and is now going up. I think we have seen the floor but will not be surprised if it goes close to it again.
The next US marshals auction will result in some serious dumping, maybe below the present floor. Like the last two? |
|
|
|
The recent dumping is driven by leveraged shorting.
Please stop with this unbelievable bullshit. You have been telling us that these months crashes have been manipulation with leveraged selling. Stop. Shorts on bitfinex have never exceeded something like 30k BTC. Now they are lot less. Even if they would have always been 30k BTC, that amount is a drop in the ocean compared to the daily volume during volatile times on all exchanges. Absolutely nothing, they don't have much influence. In case you were wondering, your short interest is somewhat correlated with price movements because the latter influences the former, not the other way around. Stop with this bullshit that the "shorters have to buy back". Sure they technically do, but that doesn't have much influence in the price per se and the longers are in the same situation, with the difference that the trend is still down (shorters are making profit, longers not really) and that longs are a lot more as always. I have corrected you before. A few days ago you didn't even know what 'short interest' was.. The 10,000 additional short contracts that have been bought from $300 down to where we are now are extremely important in terms of setting the price. Only someone being totally disingenious like you would say otherwise. Let us take the dump last night as an example. 5000 btc dumped onto the bid orderbook on bitfinex to scare the bids down. At the same time 5000 new shorts opened. Coincidence? Hmm. You don't think buying 5000 btc if the price moves up forcing shorts to cover makes a difference? It is most of the orderbook on finex to bring the price back to $240 you simpleton. |
|
|
|
Fun fact: Once we reach the bottom shorters need to buy back in! Unrealized profits are no real profits. So every bear has to buy at some point (soon).
Indeed, hence the rally to $310 and the halving of the BTC Swaps on Finex from around 30K, to 12K. In the past day or so, the BTC swap volume on that exchange has risen back up to 20K which will explain the slight price slippage in BTC. Guess a whole pile of capital is anticipating yet further selling pressure coming to market early next week. I myself (if I was still tarding Bitcoin) wouldn't short here tbh. I believe that Bitcoin is going ultimately to double figures (or a lower low at the very least), but it would be entirely typical for Bitcoin to have another rally, testing and possibly breaching the recent $310 high. Perhaps it will be these over eager shorts getting squeezed which will ultimately take Bitcoin there. Mat you are still trading bitcoin. You couldnt resist and bought back in remember? |
|
|
|
Can any of you permabears actually imagine a 'worldwide adoption' scenario and how that might unfold?
No. The blockchain can handle 2.7 transactions per second. Meanwhile, Visa and Mastercard are handling millions of transactions per second. Bitcoin offers no security and no benefit for the average consumer. It's extremely slow, expensive, unstable, unreliable, cumbersome, easy to steal, and user-unfriendly. Were it to be adopted on a really large scale, hypothetically speaking, the blockchain would reach a size of 100TB and beyond within days, making storage impossible. It's simply not scaled to handle actual real world use. It's scaled to be a small experiment among a couple hundred crypto geeks. Speculative value can still increase, of course, even if the blockchain tech has no potential for real world use. But the only real value of Bitcoin lies in its use as a small scale currency among a marginal group of drug addicts and child pornographers on the deep web. The price will eventually go to the single digit range to reflect that fact, even if a new Willybot or Markus might pump the price briefly up to $300 before that happens. Bitcoin had its fifteen minutes of fame. It's not something the average Joe needs or wants, and the price development is simply a reflection of that fact. 1. Bitcoin is a store of value that can not be manipulated. Visa is a company that sells plastic cards and a runs a transaction mechanism to exchange fiat. It's Apple Computers vs an apple farm thing. 2. Please study Moore's law, 100TB is around the corner. My first hard drive was 20MB. 3. Fuck average Joe. Exocytosis really is _the_ butthurt bull from the last bull run. Posting about 100k coins in January 2014, being goxed, and then posting the same bitter doomer spam on price weakness. He is too chicken to actually short the market himself. Instead he degrades himself by bashing bitcoin here during price weakness with the hope of buying in at a lower price, when, magically the price will inexplicably take off into the stratosphere enriching him in the process of course. If the price reaches even double digits (which is highly doubtful) then he will be too much of a chicken shit to buy in. Just as he failed to buy in at 160. |
|
|
|
We been saying "strong buy" at the level of $500, $400, $300, $200 for past year and nothing has improve at all, please stop with Strong BUY
By that logic only two more 'strong buy' opportunities left before the price is zero. Volume on exchanges would suggest we are close to the bottom. The recent dumping is driven by leveraged shorting. It is very easy to exceed natural bitcoin demand or supply with leveraged purchases or selling. Eventually it won't work and the bottom is in. The one or more entities who continue to try and short the price lower haven't given up yet. I have lent a portion of my coins out on finex before, but I am surprised that anyone would allow their coins to be used to drive the price to new lows for 0.01% a day in interest payments. |
|
|
|
And Longs are also dangers, in this case the longs are more dangerous than shorts, by looking at the charts bellow you can see that there are almost $15 M in longs, assuming these longs would be closed at today's price, this would create a selling pressure of 69000 BTC, this would bring the price to......zero, I don't know what bulls are thinking about when going long. in the other hand shorts are around 20.5K BTC which seems 3 times less than the longs but still dangerous.... with the price still going down there is a big possibility of longs squeezing then the other possibility . Longs Shorts It helps to put a year chart up. In that you can see long interest is down 50% whilst short interest is up about 100%. We may go lower. But 5000 shorts opened up on finex alone in the last 20 dollar drop. A single buy will squeeze us straight back to 240 if they capitulate. |
|
|
|
|
Shorts up another 5k to 19,000. Didnt take long for those to pile on. It is going to take a few more skinnings to make people afraid to short btc.
|
|
|
|
http://podcast.runtogold.com/2015/01/btck-128-2015-01-24/Starting @ 7:00, this is Tony Gallippi of BitPay... The whole podcast is worth a listen, but this part stands out: (quote author=Tony Gallippi) We manage a treasury of bitcoins, dollars, euros, Canadian [dollars], and pounds. Constantly we're managing our portfolio to make sure we have enough of each currency, so we are always in the markets trading... It's interesting today in the markets, I would say a year ago, or maybe a year and a half ago, the markets did not have enough liquidity. We couldn't have sold a million dollars worth of Bitcoin in a day without dramatically moving the markets. But things have changed. There's a lot more participants now. We can move a million dollars a day and you wouldn't even notice that we're trading just because there's a lot more volume and more buyers and sellers in the market. We also have a lot of hedge funds that want to accumulate Bitcoin positions, so when we have these huge spikes we also have some off-market opportunities to sell those. You'd be surprised at how many Wall Street firms are starting to accumulate Bitcoin positions that aren't talking about Bitcoin yet. There's a lot going on behind the scenes, as well as some private family wealth funds and things like that. But but but bitcoin is doomed. :p |
|
|
|
|
Shorts up to over 15k on bfxdata.
Juicy bid side on finex.
Fireworks soon.
|
|
|
|
Over 7000btc is dumped every day to cover mining costs. I dont think bids can take those hits.
Making up facts is fun isn't it? |
|
|
|
^Didn't make myself clear. I didn't mean to imply that Bitcoin's lack of scalability has prevented anyone from making money on it. Just assumed that such fundamental, conceptual flaws would have been addressed by now. Guess not  Ignoring proposed scalability solutions is fun isn't it? |
|
|
|
|
The *grabs popcorn* meme is a bit over used now.
|
|
|
|
sure - always more down
Thanks for the analysis. OP I have to say I find your posts highly refreshing. I think it is worth pointing out that the 'float' of coins moving the price up and down is tiny compared to the vast majority of coins which are 'held' by people like you and me who actually believe in the technology. We are what give the commodity value. Whilst there may be one or two honest bears on here who believe that bitcoin is destined to fail, almost everyone else without exception is simply trying to buy back in at a lower price or actively shorting the commodity, whilst dishonestly talking it down for manipulative purposes. Nothatinjustrollin is a fine example. Lets be honest none of us would want to meet up with any of you in real life. I'd like to meet you in real life... to smack you upside the back of your head for lending your coins out on Finex  I kid  Ha Yes, it was a phase. Eventually fear of exchange failure got the better of me. |
|
|
|
sure - always more down
Thanks for the analysis. OP I have to say I find your posts highly refreshing. I think it is worth pointing out that the 'float' of coins moving the price up and down is tiny compared to the vast majority of coins which are 'held' by people like you and me who actually believe in the technology. We are what give the commodity value. Whilst there may be one or two honest bears on here who believe that bitcoin is destined to fail, almost everyone else without exception is simply trying to buy back in at a lower price or actively shorting the commodity, whilst dishonestly talking it down for manipulative purposes. Nothatinjustrollin is a fine example. Lets be honest none of us would want to meet up with any of you in real life. |
|
|
|
Everything is going well....
Expect to see these kinda articles more and more,. Blockchain tech is the prize, the Bitscam brand is irrelevant...a blip on the screen that nobody remembers in 20 yrs. Yet here you are.. |
|
|
|
It wasn't selling for best price (slow dribble). It was selling to move the price (rapid dumps).
No worries, I bought coins at 180 during the last dip. Bulls are buying at these levels - check the volume.
Gonna bookmark this one again for comic relief, as I did with some of your earlier comments. I wonder whether you will sell at 180 when we reach that point. I wonder. You seem to think you know the future. Cute. Don't be such a hypocrite Inca: so do you. You only predict one direction for Bitcoin: up, to the moon that is. I haven't seen you even suggest the opposite, so please get off your high horse. You're just a permabull that spams these boards with your own propaganda. A type of lambchop, but then without any sense of humor. I put it off but there you toddle off into my growing ignore bin. |
|
|
|
It wasn't selling for best price (slow dribble). It was selling to move the price (rapid dumps).
No worries, I bought coins at 180 during the last dip. Bulls are buying at these levels - check the volume.
Gonna bookmark this one again for comic relief, as I did with some of your earlier comments. I wonder whether you will sell at 180 when we reach that point. I wonder. You seem to think you know the future. Cute. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
