You are so dramatic OgNasty.

"We" are not even to the boundaries of the "don't wake me up zone, yet"....

Of course, we are a lot closer than we were 8 hours ago


Obviously fakiety, fake.


You're asking for it.

 

Hahahahahaha


What is more funny?

1)  My post?

or

2) your "I told you so" response?


 

It is likely going up forever OGNasty.., and surely having some corrections along the way seems to be part of that going up forever process.

I am already on the record for my skepticism of Adam's being able to win his bet, and surely his odds for $100k would be greater on a longer time horizon, and surely with any amount of "going up" we surely want to be at least keeping even with, if not outpacing the rate in which the dollar is devaluing.. but also it would also be preferable for our lillie fiend to be able to outperform various other assets too... talking about traditional asset classes like, stocks, property, bonds and commodities, and not referring to shitcoins because:
1) who cares about shitcoins
and
2) shitcoins are already correlated to BTC's performance and/or dependent upon BTC's performance for them to even have a chance of keeping up with bitcoin or having short time periods of over-performing bitcoin.

Fuck crypto.

Who gives any shits about crypto?  especially in this thread.


You are both projecting and full of shit... No one here is talking about Forex trading, or trading in general, and I would not even assume that trading forex is generally giving regular people "capital" to be able to invest in bitcoin.

Another thing is that bitcoin buying and accumulating (including buying on dips and HODLing) is for everyone, including people without very much capital; however, there is some truth to any assertion that there is some needs for discretionary income since it likely is not very healthy for anyone to be attempting to invest with money that they either need in the short term, or that they might even need in the longer term if they have uncertainties with their cashflows in a less than 4 year timeline, then they might want to be careful when investing into anything that can be quite volatile, which includes bitcoin.


That does not really help too much, especially suggesting (to what seems to be a troll or a shill or even a disingenuine poster) that we are talking about BTC trading in this thread, even if there might be profitable ways to do it..


Oh?  That actually sounds like a good idea, if you are going to do something that you already want to do, and even if bitcoin gives you a further incentive to do it, there is nothing wrong with that, and surely you might be able to figure out some kind of a particular niche for yourself or if you do end up studying the coding, you may well even figure out some various angles that you had never thought about previously and potentially be able to share some of those learnings with forum members or even possibly find some angles to bitcoin that others had not seen (which surely is a higher aspirational level, but it does not hurt to have more people looking at various aspects of bitcoin's code whether it is on the first layer or some higher up layers or perhaps some applications that might need some more eyes upon their code).  


I imagine that you are responding specifically about my response to Odohu, and just to note that it is much better to not cite whole posts if you are ONLY responding to a portion of such post.

In regards to your actual response, sometimes we are not able to do exactly what we want in life so we have to figure out our various compromises or the various ways that we might feel that we are able to attempt to focus ourselves, and surely there are some people who are able to learn a lot of varying skills and specialties, but many people do need to attempt to focus on a narrow number of things, and surely even knowing some of our own limitations is a kind of skill in and of itself.. that maybe is never completely learned.. meaning that we are always needing to figure out how much that we are able to push ourselves into learning new things or if we might need to take some things off our own plates in order to attempt to be more effective at other things that we might have going on in our lives.


I am a little bothered by this mindset, even if you might end up being correct Dickiy....

There are no guarantees of great performance, even if we extend the timeline out longer... even though extending the timeline does seems to give us greater odds that our BTC holdings will be in profits (even accounting for inflation and/or depreciating value of various fiats, including but not limited to the dollar).

At minimum we would like our BTC to be able to outpace the performance of fiats and also other assets, but there is no guarantee of that either, even if we may well consider that there are a lot of good things ongoingly happening in bitcoin.

So if we are going to be aggressive in our bitcoin accumulation strategies merely because we think that we are going to be rich as fuck in 5-10 years, it could well be the case that we are deferring too much of our actual needs to live our lives and not to become overly confident in upside scenarios that are probabilities to happen rather than guaranteed to happen.


You seem lost Onyeeze.. especially since:
1) we are talking about bitcoin here, and you did not even use it one time in your post..
2) do you believe that bitcoin and crypto is the same thing, so you can just throw around that vague nonsense term, even assuming that you were talking about bitcoin when you blabbered out that gobble-dee-gook,
3) you mentioned buyng, selling and knowing when to do it.. .. and if you had looked aty the title of the thread, there is a focus, in this here thread about buying and HODLing.. not selling.. we are not talking about selling here..
and
4)  your questioning "what so difficult" seems to be quite out of place, when you don't even seem to have any clue about the topic of the thread, so you are having quite a few difficulties of your own. ..including pretentiousness to be asking "what's is difficult?"


You seem to be misusing language here.  A correction does not necessarily mean that the BTC price is transitioned into a "bearish" posture.

I otherwise agree with your point that this seems to be a kind of signature "buy the dip" moment.. .. even if you had alreadfy been buying all the way down from $28k-ish from yesterday... but yeah some folks do have a tendency to wait for BIGGER dips, and I am not going to proclaim to know when it will stop.. and perhaps that's why I have my systems already set up in which I had already been buying since right around $30k... in $500 increments.. and if we were to end up getting down to $22k-ish (that I don't want to happen).. then I might have to reconsider whether my already outstanding buy orders between $13k and $20k (that I also don't want to execute) are still adequately placed.

I had already drafted these responses to (3) posts, and I was going to post the responses in the thread that is referenced in each post, but that thread got locked (who would-a-thunk?).

So in accordance with my theory that " 'we' can post almost anything in this here thread, so long as it is not about shitcoins," I am posting my (3) responses here.. whether anyone wants to respond futher to any of the ideas contained therein or not... that be up to uie-pooie(s)... ^**

**note that I would not have even posted these here if I had not already drafted them, and usually I do not follow threads that are locked.

(1)
It seems to me that you, Raflesia, are framing the loan/debt matter in a kind of strange way, because it seems to me that debt/loans are not necessarily used in any kind of a direct way to make the living conditions of anyone better (even if indirectly there could be some ways in which the use of debt has that result), but instead, it seems that a better way of framing the question of debt/credit is in terms of if the debt/credit is going to allow for some kind of an investment that returns greater value or even creates opportunities that would not otherwise exist..

...so maybe if the question of debt/credit might be framed in terms of investment debt versus consumption debt, and the use of debt for investment is a good use of debt (but still needs to be prudent and to have understandings about how much it is costing to get the money in advance); however, there are a lot of people who engage in consumption debt, which is much more difficult to justify as being prudent - unless maybe the person is going to die anyhow or something like that, and they want to figure out ways to consume before they actually have the money.. or another possible way to use consumption debt in a reasonable way is that if there are really strong chances that the amount of money coming in later is for sure going to arrive and the money coming in later clearly and unambiguously covers the debt (including the cost of the debt), then in those kinds of cases, it may be prudent and/or acceptable to use consumer type debt. 

Investment debt is way easier to justify, but still there sometimes may well be circumstances in which it is not wise to employ debt for investments - and a lot of those have to do with both how solid the investment is and also considerations of the loan terms and the abilities to pay the loans in the event that the investment does not perform up to expectations (which the possible variable outcomes should be included in the calculations regarding whether the investment debt should be entered into).

(2)
This statement reminds me of the good ole proverb:

Question:  How do you become a millionaire?


Answer:  Start out with 10 million

In other words, which one comes first?  becoming rich? or becoming financially stable? 

It seems to me that there is a kind of symbiotic relationship between financial stability and becoming rich, which means that the ideas/practices feed upon one another, and largely even if you are not rich, you likely need to employ strategies to make yourself financially stable which will both cause you to feel rich and thereafter to contribute towards your having much greater chances of becoming more and more rich with the passage of time and with the ongoing persistence of behaving in financially stable ways.

(3)
Whoaza!!!!!  That's quite presumptuous, and even if there were some objective definition of "what is rich," considering that rich people would not be active in a forum like this seems a bit much... but hey, you can believe whatever you want, even if it is pretty logically incoherent and also based on weak speculation, at best.


That's another pretty dumb and/or lame assertion.

Another related point concerns whether there are any values in sharing ideas/opinions in a forum like this?  Maybe none of us should be posting at all because our opinions don't sufficiently matter because we do not have enough status.. including that a large number of us are pseudo-anonymous, and even the stories that we tell about our lil selfies may or may not be true.

Take everything that you hear on the interwebs with a certain grain of salt, including that you are completely responsible for your own decisions to act, or not act based on information that you get from internet sources, including this forum and/or these forum members, including but not limited to yours truly.


After you said all of that, your opinion does not seem to have much value, now.


There is nothing really disagreeable with these ideas of yours.


Your repeating yourself, which is also mostly pointless.. but maybe you are repeating yourself because you want to emphasize something that you already said.  I suppose that might be helpful for people who did not hear your nonsense the first time.


That's a fair point.. but should we listen to you? since you said that we should not listen to anyone posting in this thread?

Yeah.. sure there are some traders who may well be profitable.. but this thread is mostly "anti-trading." 

In this thread, we are really trying to explore the ideas that come from long term strategies that don't fuck around with trading and/or don't even expect to make more BTC by trying to sell higher and then buy back..

So the thrust here is to focus upon various buying strategies, and if we might run out of money from time to time to merely HODL.

Yeah, sure quite a bit of our discussion has been going outside of the range of the core aspects of what might relate to the overall thread topic of buying the dip and HODLing that also has quite a bit of attempts at long term BTC strategies too.. whether we are hoping to build up our BTC stash from time to time or maybe just HODL long term with BTC that we acquired way earlier in time.. and sure there could well be more validation to the idea of buying BTC on dips when we might buy a lot of BTC in big chunks and then just wait it out by building up our cash over long periods of time that would thereafter attempt to prepare us to have more cash available for further buying on dips when the dips seem sufficiently significant in light of cash that we have been building up

.....and surely there is a bit of a presumption that we are getting the cash to build up through various means that do not relate to selling BTC at higher prices.. even though surely there are likely other threads that focus on that kind of thing but if we want to at least attempt to somewhat stay within the theme of this thread we should be attempting to focus on various accumulation strategies and we should really be attempting to avoid talking about the various kinds of trading and/or selling strategies in this thread.... especially if part of the premise and perhaps assumptions for selling is the belief that you might be able to gain more wealth that way.. which does not even sound like a very strong presumption.. and I doubt that it is even very topical for us to be attempting to argue about it in this here thread.

In two weeks.^tm


For sure I am going to be skeptical regarding these seemingly arbitrary philipma1957 rules.


I am not going to take it.





I am just not going to take it.






Furthermore, (preparing my lil selfie for a rhyme)








"we" are not going to take it.











We are not going to take it, aaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnyyyyyymooooooorrreeeee.





#justsaying

We are going to end up in bat country?

Who would-a-thunk?


Whoa!!!!

Is that what's going on here?

I do recall that we were in a bear market - but if the bottom (of $15,479) is already conceded to be "most likely" in, then could "we" still be in a bear market? 

Yeah, sure "we" are consolidating. but that's another story.


Wake me up for discussion of this particular "this is a bear market" discussion if we go below $25k - or perhaps above $35k in the other direction...


otherwise, I just am not and cannot be buying that either we are back in a bear market or that we had not left the bear market.. and by the way, even if we are "NOT quite in a bull market," couldn't there still be some kind of a transitioning stage that allows us to just not say where we are at, exactly, until later.


That's more like it.   


If you keep saying it, then maybe it will happen.  You've been saying the same thing for a couple of months, which causes me to believe that it may or it may not happen....

What might one call it?

50/50?  Or we gonna give such a knowing it a different number?

Does it count that (a bit over an hour ago) "we" already dipped down to $28,918.. mayve staing below $29k for right around 30 WHOLE minutes.... WOW!!!!!!!

There's really no way that I can disagree with your assessment that you personally came into bitcoin from more of a techie kind of angle than the way that I ended up coming into bitcoin, and it seems that I pushed back a little harder on Odohu's assertion partially because he seemed to be assuming that the tech-minded folks had advantages in terms of their both getting into bitcoin early and that they would have more readily understood bitcoin in a better kind of way that gave them conviction to mostly HODL rather than overly selling too many coins too soon.

So I think that part of my pushback would still be to suggest that even if there may be some directional correction in that kind of an assumption in terms of some of the difficulties that some non-techies might have had in terms of acquiring BTC, but even when I got into bitcoin, there were other exchanges besides MtGox, and I recall that MtGox was still the BIGgest of the then existing exchanges, but it was already having pretty big problems for its users to be able to get value out, and so they could send dollars and/or bitcoin, and dollars were always having trouble getting out in terms of some of those off-shore exchanges at that time, but there were even a whole hell of a lot of people having troubles getting their bitcoins off, so I was surely disinclined to go through any kind of MtGox path.. because also at that time, Coinbase was in the USA for pretty decently reasonable fees (even with purchasing limits), and I am pretty sure that Circle and Uphold were other fairly early options to get dollars on exchanges, and surely local bitcoins was pretty available as an alternative - even though maybe fees were a bit high (if we might call 5% to be high).  

Of course, prior to 2013 then Coinbase would not have had been an option.. so maybe that would have been more difficult for me to want to get started because it seems that some of my earliest prerequisites involved making sure that I had ways to both get in and to get out... even though sometimes those kinds of perceptions can be misleading in terms of the drying up of channels could end up happening quite quickly.

I still don't consider myself to be very techie at all, but maybe there also needs to be a sense of adventurousness in order to get into something like bitcoin in late 2013 and early 2014, and I still tie my level of interest back to a kind of place that I was at with my overall investment portfolio.. It was getting BIG enough but at the same time, I was starting to feel quit uncomfortable with some aspects in which I was perceiving it to be too dollar dependent. everything in my holdings had various dollar denominated correlations.. including property related assets. .. so I had time to both look into bitcoin but also to spend a couple to a few hours a day looking further.. I had other things going on at that time too, and as many of us likely realize that there can be barriers for anyone to get into any kind of thing that they do not necessarily feel that they understand and maybe even more exacerbated when they are also considering that if they get into something new (like bitcoin) then they are likely going to be better off if they at least have some kind of a minimum amount of budget of time that they can spend to study it and to ongoingly study it.. which was something that I felt that I had or that I was willing to allocate time for such learnenings.

Another thing that kind of happened with my finances right before I was looking into bitcoin, and I have not really talked about this very much, but something like September, October, November 2013, I had already had a kind of decently sized budget that I could employ for investing because of some then transitions that I was going through, and in that regard, I had already dedicated some of that extra capital to a variety of investments during that pre-bitcoin time, and so when I started to read up upon bitcoin in about mid-November 2013.. it struck me as something that was hitting a lot of the diversification that I thought that I was looking for to complement what was left of my then budget. and so I established a 6 month budget for myself and extended another 6 month, but part of the kicker was that by the time that we got to September October November 2014, the various assets that I had bought in late 2013 went over their 1 year investment period which caused me to fold those investments into bitcoin as they had already sufficiently matured, and I did not give any shits if they were in profits or not in profits, since by then I had almost been in bitcoin for a year, and so those assets sufficiently maturing gave me further budget (and or ammunition at the end of 2014) that within the passage of 2014 I had come to the conclusion that they would get folded into BTC once they matured passed their 1 year period since I had bought them.


I would suggest not to get your expectations up too high.  Sure, it is good to consider upside scenarios, but we also should consider both downside and flat scenarios, and it seems to be an unhealthy perspective to consider $29k as if it was "overly suppressed" or some other kind of sentiment like that, even if there might be some truth to it.

Sure, we might be arguing somewhat about semantics because I am likely of a pretty similar conclusion to you in regards to the BTC price being low in light of historical context and in terms of the 200-week moving average, but that does not cause me to take for granted that the next likely step is UP rather than down or sideways.

So surely another way of framing any question regarding where we are at versus where we might be going is to attempt to put bitcoin in a kind of framework while still considering UP as one of the possible directions, but even if you might assign higher odds to up rather than down or sideways, that does not even mean that the higher odds will happen.

So let's say that you assign your odds as follows:  40% up  / 28%  down  and / 32% sideways.. so even if you assign the highest of odds to UPpity, you cannot assume those others to be zero or even lower than they actually are.

Sure, you might come up with different numbers than me.. and sure let's give it a timeframe of within the next year, so we should have both time and price... so what are you going to do?  Are you going to refuse to assign values to the other possible scenarios or just talk about them as if they are zero just because they are lower than what you believe to be the more likely scenario?  whether you are correct or not, that's likely even another question.


One of the ironies in the situation seems to be a bit of a surprise from some folks in regards to the number of BTC that Luke had when he was seeming to continuously pleading poverty, and I am not even suggesting that he was misleading anyone since he is a kind of well known developer who has contributed quite a bit... and so sure, maybe there going to be some seeming contradictions in some situations when some facts might come to be known that seem to conflict with other previously asserted (or maybe previously assumed) facts.


There are probably some forum threads on the topic.. it seems that I might even be following some of them.. .but I had not seen anything posted recently..

I did a quick google search on the topic, and if you are interested in more then at least this article will give you something to springboard off of..

https://decrypt.co/118231/bitcoin-core-dev-loses-at-least-3-6-million-btc-to-hack 

Some have blamed him for being too arrogant in terms of some of the more basic wallets would have likely given him better security than his own seemingly make-shift systems... and surely he is not being criticized in regards to his technical skills prowess, but there have been assertions that there is some value in terms of various open-source systems receiving more scrutiny than some systems that we might create for ourselves and then not be able to adequately see their vulnerabilities well enough in order to protect ourselves from such vulnerabilities.


Personally, I have doubts about any kind of rush to necessarily learn things that you might not have the time and/or energies to learn, and sure if you have some chances to learn more technical aspects of bitcoin, then surely there is nothing wrong with that.... but I would not necessarily conclude that it is healthy to get too focused on the trees and thereby end up losing sight of the forest - because their are a whole lot of angles to bitcoin and there are a whole lot of people who still can value greatly from bitcoin without learning how to code or whatever you might speculate to be some kind of a technical barrier and/or handicap that you might have.

Sometimes, I do look to some of the techies to help me to figure out some of the issues, and there frequently be people who have knowledge in one direction who will attempt to lord it over you, and there were several of us who ended up NOT buying into the various techie BIG blocker arguments in 2016/2017/2018 and still sometimes brought up more recently, so there can be value in terms of engaging in critical thinking and sometimes being able to identify when someone is trying to lord your lack of knowledge over you. and sure sometimes I am way out of my league when I make some posts in some of the more techie threads of the forum, and sure sometimes I will still attempt to read some of those threads because sometimes there still can be some useful information that I understand and some technical people do have better ways of framing matters than others and they are not necessarily trying to trick you.

I would not characterize myself as much of a techie.. and sometimes the techies get caught up into shitcoins because they find the shitcoins to be more flexible in their programmability.. .. so I am not sure if techies get bitcoin earlier than others, even though they likely have a lot of advantages in terms of understanding ways to protect their stash.. but even some techies can get caught up in their own tech and screw things up which seems to have contributed to how Luke Dasher had ended up losing around 200 BTC last year.

When I came to bitcoin, I had a bit of a mindset in which I was wanting to hedge my already existing 20 years worth of investment, and I was kind of looking at "gold-like" hedges... so I had already established an overall investment portfolio that I had considered could overall sustain me if shit were to hit the fan.. so by the time that i was in bitcoin for a year or so and I had gotten to the point that bitcoin was around 10% of my overall investment, I still considered that the other 90% of my holdings could largely support me, if shit were to hit the fan.. .. so I was willing for that 10% to potentially go to zero or to merely equally perform with the other remaining portions of my investments, but another thing is that I thought that even if I were to build up my bitcoin (and potentially other new things that I might end up getting into) that it still could take 15-20 years for those supplemental investments to reach sizes of some of my other holdings within my already existing investment portfolio,

....and I was kind of wanting my bitcoin to come up to a size that would be similar to my 401k investments, so then I suppose I might have been considering some kind of ballpark appreciation that might by 30/30/30... with bitcoin serving one of the 30s.. but still potentially taking 15-20 years to get there... but instead bitcoin largely ended up reaching it's 30 part of the bargain within a few years.. I mean largely by mid-2017, the bitcoin had already reached sufficient appreciation that it was right around 30 with BTC prices around $3k or so.. so bitcoin prices went up and down in 2017, but even the correction back down to $3,100 and then mostly bouncing around between $5k and $9k for most of 2018, 2019 and even quite a bit of 2020 (we did not really get over $10k and stay there until the end of 2020.. something like mid-October).

Even with all of that volatility, there seemed to have been little value to be fucking around in terms of trying to get in and out of BTC in order to try to build the size of it.. Bitcoin was building its own size merely by my ongoingly attempting to take more of an incremental, measured and paced approach to it... and really there does not seem to be anything within bitcoin's current dynamics that should cause anyone to believe that its investment thesis is weaker today than it was in late 2013 or even 2014 or 2015.. and in fact bitcoin's investment thesis seems to be stronger than it was 8-10 years  ago, even if there might not be as much upside.. but why do we necessarily need to have 100x increases in our portfolio size in 5 years in order to be able to plan around likely (but not guaranteed) ongoing UPpity that is likely is going to continue but we cannot be sure how exactly it will end up playing out.. but we can still create and put into practices our own strategies that attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios and even outline for ourselves best case and worse case scenarios while at the same time attempting to put more energies into the more base case scenarios even if we are also attempting to prepare ourselves psychologically and financially for the worst and best case scenarios at the same time...

It does seem to be quite possible to prepare for a variety of scenarios at the same time, which partially has to do with ongoing balancing of allocation levels... even while maybe trying to be somewhat aggressive with our bitcoin approach without crossing into being too aggressive that might cause us to get reckt (or to lose BTC that we would rather not lose.. but instead to keep building the BTC portion, even if sometimes it might feel like such building is going slowly).


Thanks, and surely just attempt to ongoingly practice. I make mistakes as well, and sometimes I don't learn and make similar kinds of mistakes.. and there may or may not be opportunities (or relevance) in terms of which mistakes to talk about... oh and also some aspect of bitcoin remain difficult for me in terms of changing wallets and choosing wallets and sometimes changing security practices, so you will likely continue to see me ask questions, in this forum, about some of those kinds of practices, and even seemingly smart people are changing their practices or learning code.. which I don't claim to know very much about some of those things, so there are areas that I might end up either neglecting and other areas that I feel more inclined to work on, including some bitcoin-related projects that I plan to do but I don't always get to them in a kind of fast way because there are other balances (or competing activities) in life too.


I had seen some other threads on the topic, so it is an interest area that I have, too.

Of course, investigating and reading (like Bloodseekers mentioned above) are forms of action, yet in order to really attempt to make progress there likely needs to be actions that go beyond reading and investigating, and surely the ways that action takes place can start out small and build up to getting BIGGER.. It seems that anyone who gets to the BIGGER stage, needs to have had been engaging in a variety of practices along the way, and learning through practice that gives feedback that is more practical than mere reading and investigating.. yet the ongoing and persistent reading and investigating can become more focused when it is informed by various real world actions.

This is starting to get awkward.


awk..



I feel like two guys fighting over a fat girl.


I'm fat girl.

 


I could think of worse places to be.


You must be new here.


It would not usually work like that..

but, hey, who knows about some of these lame seeming to be fantasy theories actually playing out.


Get a grip, soldier Biodom!!!!


Hm?

Maybe that is how it works around here?


How do we know which direction is the most shocking and/or the most pain?

And how do we know that any kind of shock would kick in within "don't wake me up zone?"

How do we know?

I feel like Leonard Cohen.  Rest in peace.

Wow!!!!!!

Stable BTC.


Who would-a-thunk?


I don't see any problem with posting twitter quotes as long as you are attempting to make some of your own comments in regards to whatever you are posting.

Part of our recent concerns with various twitter quotes is that it seems that a lot of forum members are coming to this thread and they are ONLY posting links to threads, and they are not even trying to provide any of their own comments about the posts, so in that regard, even if your english is not that great, and maybe the level of your bitcoin knowledge is a bit lacking, you are at least attempting to engage with some bitcoin related issues - and sometimes there still will be needs to "study up" a bit better, because some of us do get irritated by some of the basic questions that also seem to assume too many incorrect facts or assuming incorrect kinds of logic that might even relate to some lack of English comprehension.. .. so not knowing (or thinking that you know) a few words can sometimes make a pretty BIG difference in terms of whether you understood what you were reading.

For sure, it can sometimes take a bit of time to overcome some of the misinformation in our heads, but surely if we are at least attempting to grapple with it.. and maybe even doing a bit of research so that we are adding value  - which might even include posting (or being inspired by the posts) of some twitter threads or some other thread materials that are frequently known to be abused by some of the seeming merit whores .. who seem to be challenged in terms of actually typing some of their own words - without just copying and pasting from twitter and perhaps some other places.


FTFY    


Good point eXPHorizon.

My good ole buddy (not) eXPHorizon, coming through in a pinch.


What's three bitcoin between "friends?"

There is no need to feel alone in the sense of screwing some things up in your earlier years in bitcoin, and there are quite a few examples of guys who were not really holding their BTC and they were either spending too much or not employing a "spend and replace" kind of strategy that would at least cause them to not lessen the quantity of their BTC holdings when they did choose to spend it.

Maybe I would have ended up thinking about bitcoin much differently if I had come into it and the fiat value of my BTC was going up right from the start, rather than my first 2-3 years were mostly either down and/or bitcoin's failure refusal to go up.

I recall most of the time in my first three years into bitcoin between 2014 and 2017, I was pretty intent upon "right away" replacing any BTC that I spent, and I suppose that after my BTC were more in profits.. I was less intent upon making sure that my BTC replacements happened right away.. and perhaps causing a lot more relaxation in terms of employing replace after spending practices.


Thanks for the link.  I will try to take a look at that thread in the coming days.

That seems to be part of the explanation supporting the Lindy effects of bitcoin, that would likely include that people may well need several touch points with bitcoin, becoming aware of it, making several mistakes along the way, and honing their knowledge to improve their practices (which also might mean going away from bitcoin and later coming back to it).

Journeys are likely not going to be exactly the same, even if there are likely similarities.. yet some people make BIGGER mistakes than others, but they are also coming to bitcoin from different situations in their lives in which some people might be more prone to making BIGGER mistakes than others, too... but yeah, having a fiat mindset and failing to appreciate bitcoin for what  it is, especially in the beginning, does seem to be a pretty common flaw.. in which it tends to take people quite a bit of time to begin to wrap their heads around what bitcoin is... and which problems that bitcoin seems to be solving beyond just number go up.. and sure, there is nothing wrong with the NGU.. number go up technology that bitcoin has.

The solution to the problem is not necessarily to buy more bitcoin once the problem is noticed, yet there is a kind of problem that could exist in terms of not adequately anticipating, and let's try to make a kind of common-man example,

In your 30s, 40s,50s you worked your ass off and maybe you lived well too, but maybe you ONLY put assets into your personal residence, and so maybe your personal residence might have $100k or more invested into it, but it also went up in value (and sure there were property taxes and maintenance costs all through the previous decades of living in the house), so maybe when you get into your 60s, you are not sure if you are able to work anymore, but you might need to work in order to continue to pay for the house's taxes.. and maybe the house is currently valued in the $1/2 million territory, but your income (from social security, pension or whatever you have) might struggle to pay for the taxes on the house and still be able to maintain the living standard that you had grown accustomed in the previous few decades.

So, in that case, there seems to be a kind of failure to prepare, and you might not even be in a place to buy bitcoin at this time.. but if you would have diversified into more liquid wealth earlier in your life then maybe you would not be stuck in a position where you either have to leverage or sell your house. Sure, people who are younger might be able to buy bitcoin to attempt to avoid getting in that kind of situation since bitcoin is quite liquid, and likely to continue to be quite liquid relative to other assets.  

Sure, there are other assets that are more liquid than personal residences, but I had used the personal residence as an example in which there may well be reluctances to liquidate it or to otherwise overly encumber it... even though at some point there might not be a choice.. which also might be a product of some bad luck along the way but also perhaps some deficiencies in preparation, too..


That's true.


Even though a lot of earlier bitcoiners sold "everything" at various points.. or alternatively "sold too much too soon."  And even though a lot of people have that tendency, it is difficult to have sympathy with them, especially if they did not buy back in at some point, even if they had to start getting back into BTC at much higher prices than their earlier sales prices.

We also may well be able to learn from those kinds of "experiences of others" in terms of figuring out our own BTC portfolio management, which would be to attempt to figure out ways in which we  are not selling most if not all of our BTC, even if we may well want to sell portions of it.. at various points on the way up.

Maybe the $100 million question relates to determining how much to sell and when.. and to maintain some BTC no matter what, even if there are likely going to continue to be periods in which the BTC price is going down substantially in dollar terms, and such going down may even go way further than expectations and stay in such DOWNity doldrums for way longer than expected (or preferred). . .although surely we are having quite a few tendencies to be getting outside of the subject matter of this thread.


Maybe we are getting into the topic of this thread.  I am not sure if anyone should be waiting for $25k or $20k before they makes sure that they are adequately prepared for the BTC price to go up instead of down... however, many of us know that there are ways to accomplish preparations for any price direction.. including extreme downs that may or may not happen.  There are ways to be prepared for extreme downs while still being prepared in case such downity does not end up happening.

Make sure that you have some BTC.

Make sure that you are buying BTC regularly.

Make sure that you have various amounts of money prepared to buy more BTC if the BTC price dips, and surely it is not easy to figure out how much cash to keep available and how much cash to spend at various price points along the way.

I have already set mine, and they have been set for years and they move along with the BTC price.

If I had different personal circumstances, then the way that I set my BTC buy orders would be different too, so hopefully, each of us should be able to find some settings that we believe are sufficiently suitable for our own particular circumstances..


Will the BTC price go up, down or sideways from all this news and the various contradictory factors?

 I would not claim to know, even though a lot of the ongoing happenings do seem to have bullish angles to them and likely to be ongoingly putting upwards pressures on BTC prices.. so overall conclusions that suggest having some bitcoin or having some somewhat aggressive amounts of bitcoin or ongoingly accumulating BTC in aggressive ways (without becoming overly aggressive and wrecking our lil selfies) seem to be great recommendations for people to follow

- but it still will likely take a quite a bit more time before BTC accumulation really starts to get beyond fringe smaller groups of people, institutions and governments in the world (ongoingly showing us how early we continue to be), even while there remains quite a bitcoin sentiments of ongoing buzz in the air.. as Odohu seems to like to say and to suggest the buzz in the air as being "important," which such popularity/sentiment is not likely to be wrong...even if we may well question how many normies are actually going down the action Jackson road to figure out various ways to get bitcoin, which might involve setting up accounts or finding places (or people) to buy bitcoin.. and to actually start to buy BTC while making sure that they also make sure that they understand their own finances and psychology well enough in order to be able to sufficiently aggressively buy BTC on an ongoing basis without over doing it.  

Yep.. I did pretty much say that you can ask anything that you want in this thread as long as you don't pump shitcoins... and so it might not always be clear when some members are pumping shitcoins.., and some still do it.

I also did not say whether any guys here would be nice to you, including yours truly... .. including whether getting irritated by grammar and spelling mistakes that don't seem to be on purpose...    and then also sometimes guys (and gal here) might suggest that you make another thread on your topic, which in the case of your post, I don't see any reason to make another thread.. .. it seems to be both a relevant and current-events kind of a bitcoin and potentially price-impacting kind of a question... not that anyone will end up answering your question either.. but maybe ask another question, which might mean that we have psyOPs in these here parts... not going to mention any names, but you know who you are.. you fucks.


Good luck with that... see you in a few years Dictator69.

Do I feel like punishing uie-pooie with a long post on the topic, or might I contemplate a way to be charitable and largely just proclaim that I am engaged in a kind of portfolio management strategy.. .and surely it seems that I have explained it quite a few times, yet maybe I did not go into every single detail in the sense that each of us does have to find a kind of BTC portfolio management approach that is sufficiently comfortable for our own situation.

Another thing that I have mentioned in terms of my motivation for such practice has been that largely between late 2013 and late 2014, I figured out that my own particular BTC accumulation goal was likely to be in a kind of harmony so long as I reached a 10% BTC allocation when calculating the whole of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and by the end of 2014, I had already reached such 10% target - but many of us already know what happened in 2015 (and if we do not know, we surely could look at a bitcoin price chart and see that bitcoin got caught in a mostly mid-$200s bottom for the whole of that year, and I started 2015 with around a n upper $500s per BTC cost per bitcoin, but as the year went on (even though I had some cashflow difficulties during that year) whatever bitcoin that I had purchased in 2015 had brought my allocation up to about 13.5%-ish and had also brought my average cost per BTC down to about $500 - if not going below $500 per BTC.

So in essence by the middle of 2015 I could already see my allocation progressing towards the 13.5% and by the end of 2015 I had largely reached it, and surely any sales that I was making wast to recognize and appreciate that I was at least 3.5% overly allocated based on my investments into BTC - while at the same time we likely know what happened in late 2015 and even into 2016 and 2017 (if not we can look at the bitcoin charts), which is even though I had figured out various formulas to shave bitcoin profits off on the way up, my overall allocation in bitcoin went from 13.5% at the end of 2015 to over 75% by the end of 2017 (in spite of my shaving off small amounts of bitcoin within my formulas/self-madeup portfolio management theories), and so sure the dip from late 2017 to various low parts of 2018, 2019 and 2020, still did not bring me below 45% allocation because largely I was using the proceeds from the sales of BTC on the way up to mostly be buying on the way down (an other angle of the BTC portfolio maintenance approach that I had decided to take).

I am not even going to suggest that my system is any kind of a genius system but it surely is not even selling a very large portion of the profits, no matter how I slice it I still consider what I am doing as overwhelmingly HODL and accumulate, even though it includes selling and buying back within parameters.. kind of robotic stuff that already can be seen in advance and the worse case situation is if the BTC price goes shooting all the way up to $150k and further and never comes back down, so then in those circumstances, maybe I end up selling 10% (or probably even less based on my current formulas)of my BTC holdings. which is a BIG whooptie-doo given that the HODLings would have had gone up 5x and then less than 10% ends up getting shaved off, it is still up 4.9x or whatever I don't even necessarily have the exact numbers figured out in any kind of way to know that my already existing formulas do not even sell very much BTC, even in the worse case scenarios of the BTC price going straight up.. and even with that.. we know that bitcoin prices do not even go straight up.. and even when the do go straight up they still end up coming back down, and I don't even necessarily want them to come down because my formulas already establish that I am worth way more (likely multiples - probably more like magnitudes more) when the BTC prices are up rather than when they go down.

It seems to me that I have argued an justified what I am doing several times in the sense that it is tailored to my own circumstances including my various financial and psychological details, and I largely share what I am doing, and I could give less than 1 ratt's ass if anyone wants to try to carry out some variation of what I am doing, and at the same time, I feel somewhat flattered when some people say that they are attempting to employ some variation of what I am doing, and surely maybe they employing their own version that might be correct or not so correct, but if they believe that it is working for them, then I feel somewhat flattered when they say that they had learned from my approach.. and sure at the same time, sometimes when I ask them what they are doing (to get into specifics), then I might find out that they are doing some things differently, which may or may not end up working out as well.

Another thing is that I know and I appreciate that sometimes I could play the swings bigger and end up profiting, but I am not going to do it, and it is really hard to know whether I am mentally capable of doing what LFC did in terms of selling off something like 25% of his BTC holdings in the mid $50ks and feeling comfortable to "wait out" some of his buy backs, and sure maybe he ran out of money too in terms of buying most back before $20k.. but then he was also holding out some money to buy back in the lower $10ks.. which surely we know that did not end up happening, but his system may have ended up financially profiting more than mine (perhaps).. there are quite a few angels in which either variation, or even some other variations can be justified.. so in that sense I remain comfortable with mine, even though surely I can see some things that I could have had done better, but I still have difficulties to make any extreme changes to a system that I feel is ongoingly working quit well for me, and largely seems to end up contributing to my psychological comfort to have both over-accumulated into a 13.5%-ish territory in late 2015 and then mostly not even selling very much of that overall overallocations that I had made.. even though people might speculate that I am selling a lot on the way up, and surely it might seem like a lot to some normies, but it still remains quite small portions of my overall BTC portfolio... even if we look at the next BTC price rise in 2021, I might have gotten to something like 90% bitcoin in my overall investment portfolio, but even the seemingly extreme drops in 2022 still did not even bring my BTC holdings below 70%^**.. which surely still seems like a PRETTY FUCKING BIG ongoing over allocation into bitcoin..but ends up being a kind of "let your winners" ride philosophy - and I still believe that I feel much better with employing a "let your winners ride" investment approach - when it comes to BTC based on my relatively small maintenance practices of selling mostly slivers on the way up.

**Oh, and by the way, I do recall that I did make a chart on June 29, 2022 (at the end of this link) that shows that I had gotten down to 63% in my BTC allocation at that time, which I may well have to go back and figure it out whether I did actually get below 70% at any point in this latest dip, and we know that the low of the dip for 2022 was in November, so I might have to go back through and revise that chart at some points, and sure maybe I did end up going below 60%, or maybe I was just attempting to exercise a wee bit of "artistic freedom" in the sense of the ball-parked nature of hypotheticals that relate to personal circumstances.... . and the fictional JayJuanGee.. blah blah blah did this, this and this.. which is not easy to accomplish while ONLY maintaining somewhat more than 0.63 BTC.  

And, look what you did bitebits.     You prodded me into saying more than I thought that I was going to say.  


Maybe that particular kid of yours is a "secret" or not so secret JJG fan, but so far, he has not gotten the formula application correct, yet.



Perhaps?




Perhaps?


Fair point.

This guy (aka vapourminer) seems to get it.

Fair point.

Some tastes are "better" than others.

#justlettingyouknow

I was thinking something kind of similar.

Accordingly, in the past hour and a half or so, we have been getting a wee bit of UPpity taking "us" from the $29,3xxs and getting "us" into the $29,6xxs..

but still not quite a thing in terms of the "concerns" about @Buddy's streak of staying in the $29,xxxs overall... .

.and surely, from the perspective of this here cat, even though this here cat likes to see movement just like any other pussy, much of this still remains a bit of a so what situation, at least in the broader fact that "we" still seem to be floating around nearly smack dab in the middle of the $25k to $35k don't wake me up zone... aka snoozeville.

.. but also don't get me wrong.. it's not like I am not paying attention, and I get a sense that the spreads of my orders have been getting smaller and smaller and smaller.. and at this time, they are $2k apart, so $30.5k-ish for the sells and $28.5k-ish for the buys.. then the buys are mostly $500 increments down to $13k-ish... and the sells are $500 increments until $31.5k-ish then they go into $1k increments, and they slowly get bigger and BIGger and BIGGER... until $5k increments between $120k-ish and $150k-ish..

....and also, recall that my sell orders had gotten executed up to $130k-ish on BinanceUS during that "mistake" in June.. so I still have not completely rebalanced/recovered from the effects of that "mistake"... amongst the top of the "best" problems that I have had in bitcoinlandia to date.. .. even though surely, many of the no-coiners and low coiners would suggest that going from the mid $200s to our current $30k-ish arena to be a BIG problem for some of those there folks (that is if they are paying attention to their own opportunity costs), so surely I benefited a lot from Bitcoin's UPpity problem falling in the past 8-ish years... as likely there are several of the regular WO members who might have gone back to close to as far as 8 years ago to be able to relate to my feelings about the $250 to $30k-ish problema.. Hey, that's a zap of pretty stable increases of more than 100x, no?

Of course, those shorter term members may well be suffering through problems that might only date back to about 2018 or 2019, and even though 2019 was a bit of a weird year in terms of not really having any flat jumping off point, so even though I like to call April 1's $4,200 as the jumping off point for that.. there may well be quite a few WO accumulator/HODLer members in and around the space who are more likely experienced numbers that were more in the range of $6k to $9k for their comfortable to bounce off of range.. so sure there is a difference between calling the bouncing off point as $4,200 versus numbers that might end up going all the way up to $9k.. and in that regard, their sense of "stable" BTC price appreciation can vary anywhere between 3.3x and 7x .. still not bad.. but not quite close to the feeling of 100x.. and surely these later entrants (who are 4 years more junior than the more than 8 year entrants), might need to wait 1 or 2 more cycles before they might start to feel somewhat comfortable in 30x to 70x, and it may take even another 1-2 more cycles after that to bring them into a kind of 100x category of BTC price appreciation.. and I am not suggesting these numbers to be guaranteed - even though we can see a kind of trend about getting in early and attempting to be in the game longer.. so seems to be "time in the game" rather than "trying to time the game."