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2621  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2014, 09:13:51 AM
Great summary of Japanese insolvency law and procedure here:

http://www.bingham.com/Publications/Files/2012/02/A-Practical-Guide-to-Japanese-Insolvency-Procedures

Note differences between civil rehabilitation and corporate reorganisation.

(in any case, it could take anywhere from a few months to years)
2622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 10:34:09 AM
http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/

"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "

So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank  to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  Roll Eyes

Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..

You are forgetting administration costs.

In my experience, expert liquidators would be wondering if 21 million USD was enough to pay the costs of auditing the mess at Gox.

You almost need to run the company for a 6 months to a year to organise evaluating the situation - but without its normal profits continuing to pay the costs. And a freeze of assets pending 'investigations' will put a hold on this for ages anyway.

Then most liquidations I have seen seem to spend almost all the cash in the bank, by pure coincidence.

The only possible 'payout' would be from coins being sold from a substantial pile left (if there is one) and even then a lot of cost would still be taken off.

Basically - forget a payout of any substantial percentage, and forget seeing even this anytime soon.

DISCLOSURE: I had coins on Gox - not many, but I am not sneering, just being realistic.
2623  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2014, 07:10:00 PM
Personally I had coins at Gox - the last few I withdrew were returned to me before the door shut.

Ok - it now looks certain they're gone.  

Logic dictates I either sell the rest and get out, or reinvest to replace them.  

I think the growing fiat pile we can see is just like me; tentatively waiting for signs Gox really is 'over' and it will get in as soon as we don't look like going sub-500 again.

I am not going to wait until things kick off.  I bought half my lost Gox coins back today and have fiat waiting at slightly lower levels for now, just in case.  Within the next few days I will gradually restore all my lost coins with new fiat.

I assume many others will do the same - the upside is way bigger than the down.

In reckon the new fiat is hungry, but i s understandably wary and wants a little taste before it goes into a real feeding frenzy...

Then we will see the train once again.....



BTW: Fork?  Nah... no way.  
2624  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2014, 08:13:27 PM

He was onto it in 2011:

"In June 2011, Manchin joined Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY) in seeking a crackdown on Bitcoin currency transactions, saying that they facilitated illegal drug trade transactions."

Must be kicking himself - he could have cleaned up if he'd bought back then - no wonder he's a troll now Wink
2625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2014, 07:58:14 PM

Full of holes, but still depressingly scary.   Wonder who funds his campaigns - they certainly don't know enough about bitcoin to write a letter for him.
2626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2014, 06:24:57 PM
When Gox was all there was, the amount of coins sitting around must have been huge.

And it seemed like it would never change.  So the temptation to use assets sitting around to maybe bail out a little temporary hitch must have been huge.

But once you start stealing from the cookie jar...

Then other exchanges take market share and price goes through the roof at the wrong time.

Panic - cover up, make it good somehow...   Then things start to flake and the whole house of cards come tumbling down.

The thing with 'rescue' is one simple question.

How much is the deficit?

If anyone serious was looking, it would be the only question 40,000 BTC - maybe.

750,000 BTC - no.

If that is the case - name only sale, no one will put that kind of money in.

When 'how much' is known - that will decide it.
2627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2014, 06:16:26 PM
I like it!
Best promo for bitcoin ever!

Combine future tech with future tech.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu7tMD3ufKI

+1 Got to love that - even five years back that would have looked like seriously futuristic sci-fi...
2628  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2014, 12:23:18 PM
According to http://freakonomics.com/2014/02/25/what-does-the-mt-gox-meltdown-mean-for-bitcoin-maybe-not-much/ there will soon be a freakonomics podcast on bitcoin. Now they have an estimated 750 000 podcast listeners per episode (Some of it also goes out on public radio, not sure what the numbers there are). Now this is a factor ~14 less than the estimated viewership of The Good Wife, but the demographics are a great fit for bitcoin. Whereas the median age of a "The Good Wife" viewer is 60 the freakonomics listeners are

Quote
Our listeners are, in a nutshell: rather male (77%); relatively young (45% are 25-35 years old, another 24% are 35-44); well-educated (38% have a graduate degree; another 43% have a bachelor’s degree); and — according to the survey data at least — pretty well-off (17% earn more than $150,000 and another 23% earn between $100,000 and $150,000; then there are the 14% who earn between $0 and $30,000, most of whom are likely students).

Here is a graph showing the distribution of occupations


Also, they are obviously interested in economics and unlike the case in the Good wife episode, it will be clear from the context that Bitcoin is a real thing and not a figment of some scriptwriter's imagination.   Smiley

They tend to see things in a way what would seem to a layman to be contrary to the way it looks.

To anyone not 'in the know' Bitcoin is looking a bit disastrous right now.   But I think these guys will argue (rightly) the opposite may be the real truth.

EDIT: for clarity
2629  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2014, 10:59:33 AM
Nice buy on stamp. This train aint stopping for a day or so.

Generally it goes in so called "waves", which means that it will next hit 500. This enables the experienced traders to make money on the markets at the expense of the inexperienced.

He's back  Grin

He came back when the price struck 400...

As he predicted, to be fair.    And as I am sure he will not be shy about reminding remind us Wink

Welcome back Risto.
2630  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 05:47:10 PM
Any news on when (if at all) trading will resume?

Any news on when one can expect a statement from MtGox or Mark Karpales


Yep:

'Soon-ish...."  From Karpeles himself.

Hope that answers your question
2631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 05:32:58 PM
Whoever has possibly acquired Gox is not SecondMarket:

As for the end of MtGox, Silbert said the end of MtGox may prove a boon in the longrun to Bitcoin.

"The sooner that MtGox goes away, the better."

More details about what SecondMarket is doing:

Using London's Intercontinental Exchange commodities market as a model, SecondMarket CEO Barry Silbert said he envisions as a hub and spoke arrangement, with his firm serving as a "meta-exchange" through which certified member exchanges and market-makers could trade with one another.

The organization would serve three roles: price discovery, central clearing, and, most ambitiously, as a self-regulatory organization, like FINRA. SecondMarket would front $20 million in cash and Bitcoin assets.

"We have half a dozen conversations ongoing with global banks, a high level of interest and early support from global banks to be part of this," he told BI by phone Tuesday. "We've spent a fair amount of time with regulators, they're very aware of what we're doing."

SecondMarket is also hoping to expand its offering of products for investing in digital currencies.

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-secondmarket-exchange-2014-2




A kind of Bitcoin central bank then?  Smiley
2632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 05:27:01 PM
One thought - if Gox is being taken over, then there is a lot for any incoming team to do.

There may be an announcement soon, but Gox will is unlikely to open up anywhere near soon.

It will need a total audit, endless meetings and staffing briefings, then probably new software that needs to be tested etc.

So - even if takeover happens, we won't see Gox back soon - or Gox coins flooding other exchanges in a hurry.

I doubt 'April 1st' is a likely date, not just for comedy reasons, either - an announcement by then, sure - maybe.

Gox rising phoenix-like from the ashes - nope.

2633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 04:47:43 PM
"We should have an official announcement ready soon-ish...."

Well...!

I suspect it's not 'we' - it's 'them' so MK can't say anything.  Realistically, it ain't over til the fat man walks, in my book, so if it is 'we' he would be still involved and I can't see anyone buying in wanting that.

That said, I do think credible investors buying out the brand is the only way out - they will claim to be heroes, of course.

What we need to know is 'how' insolvent is Gox.

If it's 750,000 BTC down - they buy name only and no-one gets paid ANYTHING.

I don't think it can be THAT bad, that is a phenomenal amount - I doubt it's that high.

Nonetheless, everyone getting their money back is nowhere near certain.

We watch and wait.

2634  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 02:07:04 PM
well, that bitcoinbuilder volume is surely not all the time volume as some suggested yesterday as it was at 40k+ yesterday. So it's 24h volume and they made close to 2k BTC yesterday. Wow, wow, wow

Nice. Making money on pain and despair. Gotta love that Smiley

Genius move - many people wanted the service and some who got out at 60% or more of their value, will be most grateful if Gox has indeed gone.

He set up exchange that trades simply and easily and does what it claims to do, by all accounts.

Hats off to him, IMHO
2635  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 01:01:44 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yvy2t/gox_has_announced_acquisition_statement_tomorrow/cfo862t

13:35 < Mantrid> Gox.com
13:35 < Mantrid> 5 minutes ago
13:35 < Mantrid> We are in a process of being acquired, at the current time I am not
                 in the position to give you further information. I can only reassure
                 you, that your funds are securely kept in our cold storage.
13:35 < Mantrid> An official statement is to be released tomorrow.

anyone in the #mtgox-chat ?

I am so lost as to how GOX HASN'T SAID ANYTHING ( in official channels) THE FUCK is wrong with their management.

Did the Japanese make the hari kari themselves?
Who is Mantrid? He's not an OP in irc.

as I re-read it looks like he's relying whatever was hosted on the gox.com which could have been  hijacked in theory and or is really where they plan to move to. The thing is if this is just a social engineering ploy it would make sense that the scribd doc + gox.com would have something of this relation going up to further it... but if that scribd document is the quality of work Gox put out on a regular basis it is no surprise that they're a huge failure.  That thing would not get a D minus on a good day. Being an international company means you can't put out fucking shit releases like that ...whiie making millions in exchange fees. Have some standards.

standards?   Grin
2636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 12:17:35 PM
The chart in the logo representing goxbux history is a nice touch - from zero up down up higher back down to zero!

Real?  Hmmm.. The only thing that is remotely convincing is the promise of a future statement.  Plus ca change...?
2637  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 11:10:29 AM
The recovery is maxed out for now. It's going to take at least a day to consolidate and break $520 if not longer.

The market is far from rational right now. I doubt this will be our last time going past $500 again. The fact that this recovery is occurring at super speed is shocking.  

The market has taken the 'gox is gone' news and NOT capitulated entirely.

If it can't get any worse, and Stamp is over 500 - it's actually pretty reassuring.

Bullish, even.
2638  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 01:23:56 AM
Someone sold 1600 BTC on b-Builder in the middle of a pretty hefty dip at 22% - jeez - that is panic...

I am betting 750K Bitcoins is FUD - at the time they closed BTC withdrawals, that would have been worth what - somewhere well over half a billion USD value.  

Missing?  

Nah - biggest heist in history if it's true, but for me. Can't be.

I really am going to bed now.  
2639  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 01:14:56 AM
I hope everyone is set up in such a way that he can continue on without Emptygox.

I am. It is called wallet.dat backed up on a 5.25in floppy disk among other places.  Grin My floppy also survived the collapse of First Pirate Savings and Trust, later called Bitcoin Savings and Trust and the collapse of Bitcoinica among other interesting events.

If this 700K+ BTC loss turns out to be true, the bears will first have a say, then when the market figures out that those BTC are gone and consequently cannot be sold expect the "short squeeze" to drive price of Bitcoin in terms of USD to new highs in the 4-5 figures.

700K seems a lot to 'not notice' you're missing.

Are even Gox THAT stupid?
2640  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 01:08:51 AM
Off to bed - hope that's all the fun for tonight - Glad Stamp seems to have held the line.

Gox seems to not want to do double digits.

Still some Spartans about maybe?

Hope the yanks don't spoil the party if us chaps here head for some shuteye.
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