the big wow factor will be when >75% hashing power + economic majority HardFork bitcoin to 2MB blocks.
It's already going to 2MB blocks + segwit with 2017 hard fork anyway, which should be an effective 3.x MB block size. That's why there's not much of a reason to make a big deal out of it unless someone tries to renig. Also, weak blocks make raising block size not an actual problem and weak blocks is already planned here: http://coinjournal.net/blockstream-president-adam-back-shares-roadmap-scaling-bitcoin/There's not even any argument that Bitcoin will or won't be scaled, it's just that people believe core is doing it too slowly, but that's just how it is when you actually have to develop and test things first for something where you make a mistake would implode billions of dollars. There is no guarantee it will happen it can only happen if mostly everyone wants it to happen. that much has been made clear as day in the past year. ( to the point were people are afraid nothing can ever happen because getting "mostly everyone" to agree is "impossible" ) when the HF happens and we get our first 2MB block 10mins later. people's heads will explode. dont kid yourself the 2MB HF will be a BIG DEAL. lol, big deal yeah, massive dump. but it aint going to happen, gonna need a tad bit more than a buncha whiny shits to fuck with Bitcoin. it's funny how back when they reduced the capacity from 32 to 1 MB a few years back as a 'temporary measure against spam attacks' no one cared, but when we need to up it to 2 MB it seems to be a large debate over nothing. Seriously, why is everyone making such a fuzz about it. Common... You are making it sound as if the 2mb XT/Classic folks were reasonable in their approach to this mater, and that is all that they wanted... You are buying into a spin. They wanted 2mb by holding a gun to the heads of others and at the same time coupling such proposals with unnecessary and bitcoin debilitating governance changes... and tried to package them as the future/efficiency etc. If they were reasonable, as you had proposed, and merely were talking in terms of technicalities, such an upgrade from 1mb to 2mb could have likely been achieved in a fairly short period of time... and so now, we also realize that even the 1mb to 2mb is not that urgent .. because we gotta see seg wit, first... |
|
|
|
Hi JJG,
I'll respond to you properly after a while. Busy at the moment.
No problema... I was just wanting to get caught up on some of the outstanding and unanswered questions.... so I didn't leave that hanging... Not that it is a job, but I felt that I needed to attempt to clarify a few things. |
|
|
|
Also, I'm usually getting out of the trade [Have a STOP] if it's gone to a point of losing 2% of my trade. I risk no more than 2% in a bull market and no more than 1% in a bear market. Of course, this means on a 50 BTC entry if I get stopped out, I lost 1 BTC in a bull market and 0.5 BTC in a bear market. However, for every $10 gain without being stopped out with 120 BTC waged across 3 exchanges, I'll have a $1,200 gain in total minus fees. $2,400 minus fees for $20 gain, $3,600 minus fees for a $30 gain, etc... BTC-e fees are 0.2% fees for taker and maker. Coinbase 0.25% for taker and 0% for maker. However, I believe they have recently establish a discount credited back to your account every 30 days based how much one has traded during that time frame. Same thing with BitFinex.
I never really used any of those kinds of strategies nor the stop losses. So yeah, it does seem as if you can figure out systems in order to just let something ride until it reaches your target.. and surely volatility helps for these kinds of moves.. otherwise, seems like it may take forever to reach your price points.... and thus your money is tied up. The ranges with BitFinex are as follows:
Executed in the last 30 days (USD Equivalent) Maker fees Taker fees
$0.00 or more traded 0.100% 0.200%
$500,000.00 or more traded 0.080% 0.200%
$1,000,000.00 or more traded 0.060% 0.200%
$2,500,000.00 or more traded 0.040% 0.200%
$5,000,000.00 or more traded 0.020% 0.200%
$7,500,000.00 or more traded 0.000% 0.200%
$10,000,000.00 or more traded 0.000% 0.180%
$15,000,000.00 or more traded 0.000% 0.160%
$20,000,000.00 or more traded 0.000% 0.140%
$25,000,000.00 or more traded 0.000% 0.120%
$30,000,000.00 or more traded 0.000% 0.100%
yeah those are decent fees, compared to some of the others. So far I have not put any money on bitfinex, because they were acting weird last year, and they had a few "incidents" of suspiciously being down... but maybe they have gotten their act together a little better in recent times? I wouldn't mind getting to a point I could live off trading BTC. That would be sweeeeeeeeet. At present, we cannot do it without too much stress. I told Fakhoury about my wife getting laid off from her accounting job with an oil and gas company in January this year. We've had to get a little bit out of savings each month to meet our monthly obligations. Trading has helped but not quite enough. Our monthly obligations are quite large. Our health insurance and dental insurance are close to the same as our house note: approximately $1,750. House note is more than that. We have more than $4,000 in monthly obligations just with our house note and insurance. Then we have a few credit card bills, utilities, grocery, gas, car insurance, etc... It adds up quickly. Hence, the reason I'm wanting to open up e-cig stores.
surely it is good to figure out ways to have a steady enough income in order to meet all of the bills, and accumulating in various ways can help, too.. but yeah, when you start drawing on things, you gotta see if you are making money in other areas and then how much are you drawing into principle or merely just drawing into profits... If you are in your late 40s, then it seems much too early to be drawing into principle.. unless you have an extremely large nestegg.... which depends on your standard of living.. consider that you should be able to draw about $3,500 a month passively for every million principle... but then your principle would be stagnant in those circumstances and if you lose some of the principle for various reasons then you are further screwed... so usually we need a fairly decent cushion... to rest with some level of assurance and comfort. I've procrastinated on opening up e-cig stores long enough. Which means you will not see me as much in the forums for a while beginning next week. I'll still pop in almost everyday. However, I will not stay on here very long each day. It will take some time before I can find someone I can trust enough to run the e-cig stores so I can focus my energy back to trading.
Retails a bitch. so may be more work and geographical tying down than you expect... and employees or independent contractors or partners can cause a lot of work too. |
|
|
|
I think the short squeeze will push the price much higher than the last $1200 peak. But the price has to rise to $1200 first.
The price is not going to rise much above $500, the backlog of transactions won't let it. Good luck with that lame point of view. So you can sell 90% of your BTC at $499 or $510 and feel pretty confident that you are in a good position to be able to buy back. I am only going to sell about 1% of my coins between about $490 and $530, so let's see who is doing better with those strategies. |
|
|
|
Our approaches are a bit different from one another.
I don't attempt to predict short term price movements in either direction,but I assume in the long run BTC prices are going up... so accumulating is going to pay off.
Therefore, I only sell within profits.. so for example if I hold 100btc, then I can only sell up to $1,000 for every $10 the price goes up, and so I continue to stagger on the way up and on the way down and the price intervals vary... but continue... I am somewhat agnostic regarding whether prices go up or down, but of course, since I have been accumulating BTC, I prefer that the prices go up.
So, it sounds like you may invest about 1/5 of your holdings every $10 the price goes up. It also sounds like you do this over a relatively long period of time. You keep up with the amount of BTC purchased and at what price. Which means you have pre-determined an exit for each fifth of your holdings ($1,000) you have invested as the price heads upward. This would mean most of the time you are not in a position to have invest all $5K or 5 fifths for example because the price may not have gone up $50 or $60 over the period you are trading before it goes down again. At least that is what has been the case lately. It has stayed pretty much between $435 and $465 for quite a while now. I was a bit distracted since the BTC/USD market has been very happening in the past several hours….. so for posterity sake, as I type, BTC prices are currently floating between $472 and $478 (after having had risen about 5% from about $453). Anyhow, let me attempt to clarify because possibly, I did not describe very well in my earlier summary regarding my current approach to BTC trading. Even though I call what I do BTC trading, maybe what I do does not really fit any exact typical pattern of trading because I definitely tailored it to myself? I know technically I am BTC trading, but also what I am doing is engaging in a kind of ongoing small level tweaks of my BTC holdings in order to hedge some of the downward volatility with underlying assumptions that in the long term BTC prices are going upwards. I am also engaging in a certain level of BTC price prediction attempts (with some margin of error), so for example my view of recent BTC history is something like this: In August 2015 BTC trade volume began to pick up after the downward testing of $200 and the bounce back thereafter, and through October November BTC prices shot up to $502, but the BTC price battle remained for at least a couple more months through December 2015, and the bears were largely unsuccessful to get BTC prices to return below $350, even though there were some temporary successful short periods of such pushes below $350. So after getting through those more than 4 months of relatively high volume BTC price battles, BTC prices have been trickling back up up and becoming more and more difficult to drive down absent some major spreading of FUCD or finding of some actual technical flaw or real news item. So anyhow with my description of recent BTC price history, I have certain assumptions that since about August 2015 we have been in an upward bound bull market, and probably we did not really realize for sure until about December 2015 that the BTC market had truly shifted from its nearly 2 year long bear market into a bull market (yeah some people recognized such sooner rather than later and surely others did not recognize such transformation until much later, and a few are still denying – but not too many), and yeah there have been some fairly significant attempts at keeping BTC prices down with blocksize limit debate etc, and maybe even attempts to revert to the bear market but the upwards BTC price trajectory seems a decent medium term assumption, that has kind of become more solidly reaffirmed in the past 12 hours. Let me show how my projected BTC buys and sells are currently stacked, and then I will attempt to explain further about those projections. In the past couple of years, I discontinued disclosing my actual number of BTC, but the below rendition assumes that I have 100 BTC (about 96% in BTC) (and about 4% in fiat, which is about $2,120 ), and even though these are hypothetical numbers, the actual ratios of all of that is proportional to my actual current BTC portfolio and stacking of projections. I attempt to always have enough cash on hand and to stagger to buy at least a 15% correction, and if there is a 10% correction, I have to rejigger everything in order to be able to continue to buy if there is another 15% correction from there (which would end up being 25% correction total.. etc etc etc.. I mean I never want to run out of either fiat or BTC to be able to keep trading with the funds in my BTC portfolio no matter which direction the price goes and for how long. My current BTC buy staggerings are proportionally as follows (read this one from the bottom up): BuyPrice BTC_tobuy $Amt_ToBuy $437.00 0.19614253 $85.71 $443.00 0.22573363 $100.00 $447.00 0.22371365 $100.00 $450.00 0.22222222 $100.00 $453.00 0.25228635 $114.29 $456.00 0.25062657 $114.29 $459.00 0.24898848 $114.29 $462.00 0.24737168 $114.29 $465.00 0.24577573 $114.29 $467.00 0.24472316 $114.29 $468.50 0.24393962 $114.29 $470.00 0.24316109 $114.29 $471.50 0.24238752 $114.29 $473.00 0.24161885 $114.29 My current BTC sell staggerings are proportionally as follows. SellPrice BTC_toSell $amt_toSell $480.00 0.17857143 $85.71 $482.00 0.17783047 $85.71 $484.00 0.17709563 $85.71 $486.00 0.20576132 $100.00 $489.00 0.20449898 $100.00 $491.50 0.23252434 $114.29 $494.00 0.23134760 $114.29 $496.50 0.25895555 $128.57 $499.00 0.25765817 $128.57 $501.50 0.28485971 $142.86 $504.00 0.28344671 $142.86 $506.50 0.36666197 $185.71 $511.00 0.44730221 $228.57 $521.00 0.43871675 $228.57 $531.00 0.43045467 $228.57 Each time I buy or sell I readjust the parameters and project ahead, and if the price shoots passed some buy or sell points, I combine them, and profit more from allowing it to shoot, if I have an inclination that the price is not going to reverse directions. Currently, I am only authorizing myself to trade up to about 50% of my profits.. so like I said if BTC prices go up $10, with 100 BTCs, I can trade up to $1,000, but in actual practice, currently, I am only authorizing myself to trade about $500 – 50% because I am bullish and because I would rather not sell too many BTCs So my total fiat holdings are currently only about 4%, and that is not bad – given that as I type, BTC prices seems to be heading upwards. Just a day ago, I was at only about 2.2% fiat, and the last time we were at $470 (about 2 months ago), my fiat amount had migrated up to 8% of my BTC portfolio (and I felt too much in fiat), and thereafter with like three major corrections back to the $430s, I had gotten my fiat down to 2% which was feeling a bit risky… Maybe ideally if BTC prices surge a bit, then I am going to be able to float between 10% to 20% fiat, yet I think part of the reason that my fiat levels are currently so low is that I remain quite bullish about BTC’s short term price direction, and the three recent price corrections to $430 were quite a bit more than I had anticipated and caused me to stock up a bit much on BTC – and now I am a little more relieved after our 5% upwards correction today. Under my current practice, even if there is a BTC price upsurge to $5k, I will likely still hold over 50% of my BTC; however, I may decide to make some kind of special exception selling if I really believe that we are strongly in a BTC price bubble and I am fairly confident that there is going to be at least a 10% downward price correction. I hope that this helps to clarify a little bit regarding what kinds of proportions of my BTC holdings I am trading and kind of how it may play out with larger kinds of price movements. |
|
|
|
I should get some sleep, too... but difficult with so much price action. |
|
|
|
Miners will leave antpool, if they don't agree with their lack of cooperation in bitcoin and ill-found destructiveness
Correct. As it now stands, their position is negative. I hope this kind of thing continues when mine poole operators attempt to engage in coercion tactics in what appears as an unwarranted attempt to alter governance, and therefore, lucky enough that miners are sufficiently smart to recognize that they don't want to be part of a mining poole that acts so recklessly and takes stupid and unjustifiable positions. |
|
|
|
sold at 470, then watched it climb up & up!
ugh!
you want bears? cos this is how you get bears!
Should be a time in memorial lesson, never use all your fiat nor sell all your BTC. |
|
|
|
smh I wanted in with a couple dollars yesterday at $450 but figured I wait till today. Always the same shit. Still nice to see though  Podyx.... if you have been in this game for a while, you should have enough BTC accumulated.... Yeah, of course we would have preferred to stack a few before a pump, or maybe not sell as many early in the pump, but it is really hard to see these things coming (even though we've been anticipating for months). |
|
|
|
they will code it in, or else.
or else what? we don't code for terrorists. Miners will leave antpool, if they don't agree with their lack of cooperation in bitcoin and ill-found destructiveness |
|
|
|
...sure, yaaaa, no one is having any difficulty with TX times and figuring out the appropriate fee, no one.
Maybe someone but that doesn't mean we should fork Bitcoin. That's like a bank CEO saying: "Since there are a few people that are too stupid to use ATM's we should have assistants next to every ATM" Just use a higher than recommended fee if the transaction is urgent. Exactly... Like saying let's fuck up the whole thing of bitcoin just because either a few people are having troubles figuring out fees and receiving confirmation of their transaction as quickly as they had pland and/or other people are making a lot of noise about having such troubles (which stories are likely mostly fabricated or exaggerated, by the way). |
|
|
|
What an incredibly moronic, toxic community this place has become. All over a disagreement on how bitcoin should scale.
There is no reason to tell someone who disagrees with you to go use another coin. That is incredibly immature and divisive... I can only conclude that this community is made up of a mixture of zealots who want to prove themselves right at all costs and asinine morons. Or so it seems from the last 20 pages of this thread or so.
The level of ignorance, vitriol and fanaticism being displayed here is rather disheartening to say the least.
Those who support bigger blocks should not be treated with disrespect merely for supporting Satoshi's original vision for on-chain scaling procedures.
Your the one who keeps arguing over a point that is largely settled... why can't just focus on positive developments and working within what you got instead of continuing on a theme that should be largely behind us. Yeah, there will be needs to adapt in the future etc etc.. but you keep harping on some kind of idea about wanting to get larger blocks right away, and no one of importance in the bitcoin community is really persuaded by that argument.. so we do not have it... and it is working fine... we are crashing all the way into the $600s with such a supposed defect (of lacking larger blocksize limits) |
|
|
|
At about this time I gave up on the community and sold my coins. If the people driving the decision were functional and worked together, or even if they had been discussing the problem in good faith, I would still be a believer even if block size didn't immediately increase. You are not taking into consideration the idea that there are actors who actually are trying to destroy Bitcoin. Consider that possibility, and then reevaluate everything, is what I would suggest you do. Well these actors have left the project. (Mike Hearn & Co) gavin is still around. so is all the whining XT/classic wannabes. Yep... exactamente... .. there are a lot of those folks participating in these kinds of threads, spinning facts and acting as if their arguments are completely still alive.. kind of a selective memory and stubborn repetition (in spite of evidence to the contrary) |
|
|
|
Just stuck my nose in to see if there was any movement and see that I just missed all the action again.
Feels like the 2-week-old bear trap has snapped securely shut.
Let's get us a new high for 2016.
A new high for 2016 would not be difficult... Isn't that $471 or something like that, but we could experience a new 20 month high, which also seems reasonable in the $502 territory. But, yeah an interim target of $650 seems within the realms of doable within the next few weeks, if we could keep up a bit of momentum, here. |
|
|
|
now...
>520$ in <2 weeks
HODL!
You never know with this bullshit... Way things are going, we could witness greater than $520 in less than two hours... .. that would be hilarious to force a few shorts... |
|
|
|
RIGHT NOW we need to compete with visa, mastercard, paypal, and
" There you go again" - Ronald Reagan Lying to try to make a point, that is. Show me more than one quote which supports your claim that bigblockers assert we need to scale to visa levels today. I'm not going to go researching various post and get into some kind of parsing duel.. If you have been awake, you would have noticed plenty of these kinds of arguments being made over the past 6 months and even longer by a large number of XT/Classic supporters. No, the only time I have seen that stated is when the least honest of the smallblockers have been building a straw man to engulf in flames. Another example of your own selective blindness. Not the first time that I have been faced with this selective blindness coming from your baloney accusatory posts.  Yeah, right. Your making shit up, then clinging to the lie, refusing to back any of it up, speaks volumes to all but you. yeah.. you like to get all worked up about some obvious facts that don't even really matter in the whole scheme of things... .. and in that regard you really seem to enjoy to get caught up in the weeds, and lose the point of whatever the fuck you want.. which seems to be to whine about wanting bigger blocks and so sad about losing persuasive points concerning XT/Classic... No one gives a shit.. so.. why don't you go somewhere else and work on getting your bigger blocks and changes to bitcoin's governance, because sympathy for that topic is largely dead in this place, especially when you get caught up in techni-speak order to make a variety of nuanced and non-important points.. |
|
|
|
Are you all sleeping or what ?
DRING DRING BITCOIN FOMOING!!!
nobody cares anymore ... it will only wake up the trolls, this thread is such a dump now. What are you talking about, I CARE! We've broken through the $450 electrical fence, we're free, fellow cattle! Your description of a $450 was somewhat illusory anyhow... because we've been here several times, and even not that long ago... It seems that upper $460s / lower $470s could be more formidable and significant in getting some upward price movement... .. time will tell... because we will likely be going up passed $470, it's just a matter of how much time and how much of a battle is made over such potential resistance at that level |
|
|
|
RIGHT NOW we need to compete with visa, mastercard, paypal, and
" There you go again" - Ronald Reagan Lying to try to make a point, that is. Show me more than one quote which supports your claim that bigblockers assert we need to scale to visa levels today. I'm not going to go researching various post and get into some kind of parsing duel.. If you have been awake, you would have noticed plenty of these kinds of arguments being made over the past 6 months and even longer by a large number of XT/Classic supporters. No, the only time I have seen that stated is when the least honest of the smallblockers have been building a straw man to engulf in flames. Another example of your own selective blindness. Not the first time that I have been faced with this selective blindness coming from your baloney accusatory posts. |
|
|
|
We have winners and we have losers. Usually, more losers than winners. Everyone cannot win all the time unfortunately.
Actually, yes... It becomes so easy to get emotional and to do the wrong thing.. so in that regard a lot of people can get tricked into buying high and selling low... and so I agree, probably more people lose than win because it remains tricky, even when it seems simple. I get tempted into such myself when the market is going up, it is very tempting for me to buy and make a little on the upsurge when I should be selling and sometimes it is very difficult to sell on the way up because I want to make more and more and more and to time the highest point when I should probably continuously have been selling as it goes up because the price trend can reverse at any time and for no reason.. and the same happens to be true when the price is going down.. sometimes I want to sell on the way down and I have a tendency to get greedy on the downward trend when I should be buying and in the end, I don't want to get caught selling at the bottom of such an awe inspiring dip when I should have been buying at that time in the dip, and I sometimes have to coach some people (in the real world who I attempt to help with this) over and over and over about not getting tempted to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.. and it is very difficult to help people to fight off the temptations to do the wrong things at the wrong times.. so if you build systems, you can stick to your plan and do only what you are supposed to do buy on the way down and sell on the way up..  I've found what helped me get out of reacting on emotions is to stop looking at any chart lower than the 30m. I remember I used to look at the 15m, 5m and 3m all the time. I would get caught up "in the moment" (15m, 5m and 3m charts) instead of having a plan based off information gathered to make a logical decision. I've had to force myself to exercise patience with trading to allow TIME for things to play out the way I previously determined they may play out based on the information I've gathered. Sometimes, this may take days and in some cases weeks to play out. I remember when LTC was heading on a downward spiral. I told everyone they should wait to get in around .0065 in about 6 to 8 weeks. I have many witnesses on BTC-e about this. Paul (a moderator on BTC-e) is a witness to this. I provided charts for those who were interested. Sure enough, about 8 weeks later it hit an ATL of .0065 and I bought a slew of it to prepare for the LTC pump and dump due to the LTC block halving I knew was coming about 3.5 months later. The swings are not broad enough to do any swing trading in my opinion. It's not worth my time to be near the computer to swing trade at present. Back in late 2013 and first quarter of 2014 it was nothing for you to have $50 swings almost every day. Now THAT is worth staying near the computer to get involved with. Most of my trades lately have occurred over a 2 to 4 day period where I would enter and exit. I know some who may make only 2 trades a month (one entry and one exit) but they were big trades. I suppose it depends on the person and the amount of time they have to invest in front of computer screen to trade. Our approaches are a bit different from one another. I don't attempt to predict short term price movements in either direction,but I assume in the long run BTC prices are going up... so accumulating is going to pay off. Therefore, I only sell within profits.. so for example if I hold 100btc, then I can only sell up to $1,000 for every $10 the price goes up, and so I continue to stagger on the way up and on the way down and the price intervals vary... but continue... I am somewhat agnostic regarding whether prices go up or down, but of course, since I have been accumulating BTC, I prefer that the prices go up. |
|
|
|
The investment opportunity does seem to be rare, but I am having my doubts about whether it is a once every 200 years type proposition.. even though it could play out to be that rare..
But yeah, it is probably at least comparable to the telephone, internet, automobile... etc. paradigm shifting innovation.
Regarding that mobile home.. I did not see the price, but probably starts out at about $150k or so, and maybe gets 4 miles per gallon - the diesel version?
The reason I'm saying it's so rare is mainly because everyone could not buy into telephone, internet, automobile, etc... and expect that kind of return on investment. I could be wrong but I don't think so. As for the price on the Realm RV: http://www.rvtrader.com/dealers/Motor-Home-Specialist-Inc.-726707/listing/2016-Foretravel-Realm-FS6-Luxury-Villa-3-%28LV3%29-Bath-%26-1--115076294Wow... ... so then yeah, you consider that to be a good investment, and others consider a boat that could sail the world, but probably a boat would cost more, especially if you want it to be sufficiently safe in an ocean bound and international sense... Hm? I'm not quite into thinking about those kinds of things, even though my mom had suggested some kind of RV type situation to me, I am kind of more inclined towards international travel but without buying big items and attempting to stay more mobile.. but I'm currently still working out some geographically tying me down business details, so cannot start anything like that until i get some of my geographically tying me down business matters in a more settled place or maybe liquidated.. hahahahaha. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
