so what if Risto is more bullish than a large majority of us. There are things about Risto that bother me, including his sometimes cock-sure way of expressing some of his predictions or even his past performance and some arrogance of attempting to distinguish himself from others, which sometimes results in denigrations of others. Also, sometimes, I think he puts too much certainty in terms of mathematical models - and maybe a few other bragging aspects of his personality. Nonetheless, Risto frequently provides really decent analysis and fairly decent explanations concerning why and how he is arriving at his prediction(s).
The problem is apparently with the interpretation. Despite that all his predictions are "clearly wrong in all possible ways", he himself is able to make money on them. I take it that you are referring to yourself in the third person? Anyhow, I am NOT the one that would assert that you have been wrong in all possible ways.. that certainly is NOT the tone of my commentary. In essence, I think that you are missing part of my point, and surely there could be some credibility when investors are able to make money off of their various techniques.. but a better question may be whether people who they are advising are making money by following those techniques.. maybe so, and maybe not.. partly depending on timing and maybe even the extent to which advice is closely followed. Problematic to give advice in public forums and also problematic to give advice if not knowing many particular financial circumstances, timeline and goals of each of the individuals. |
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I can taste the despair right now but I prefer to buy during panic...I will hold off a little longer.
I agree that we seem to be in a sort of despair, and it seems that we already had various panics. I am doubting whether any of us can count on additional panics... so despair it is, but this dispair cannot last forever... 1 to 8 months more at most, no? You really think that a flat or downward trending market is going to go beyond 8 more months? Anyone? |
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Just drop to $200 already and wash out the weak hands
Why not 140$? Or 80$? Or 20$? Oh wait, then YOU will be the weak hand... I already bought some @ $350. Bearwhale driven or not, the price is right. This is gentlemen... Yeah, I am not referring to what a fair price would be but the flaw in his thinking. It is not healthy to shakeout investors, after a certain point you 'kill' the asset. IMHO we should NOT fall below 340$, it would be really bad (only with a flash crash and then immediately bouncing up back). I'm not sold on the idea that Bitcoin is dead if it falls below some price X. Keep in mind, price decreased by factor 16 and recovered anyway, 2011 to 2013. I'm not convinced yet we'll make a new significant low from here, but obviously I could be wrong. So let's say we'd go below 340, then 320, then back to 270, fall through and go below the previous ATH. Going back below the previous ATH would be a first in BTC trading, that's for sure, but so what? What it would do is most likely kill all the previously held speculative notions, the idea that we're practically ensured to see an exponential price/mcap increase, or that "Bitcoin will go to 1 million USD eventually". In that case there's a good chance a vast number of current investors would leave for good, and price would deflate to level that seems laughably low right now... but then what? Others will pick it up from there, as long as there is the confidence that Bitcoin is useful for something after all. Cue the trolls: "It's about as useful as beanie babies or tulips". I don't need to tell you that's just noise. The usefulness of Bitcoin (or crypto in general) is undisputed. What is up for debate is the scale at which it will be used (and, as a consequence, what the valuation of the network should be). What I'm getting at is: the worst case you describe is effectively a worst case for the previous valuation model of Bitcoin, but that's not quite identical to the death of Bitcoin (or its valuation, for that matter). Oda Krell: I agree with everything you say here, yet I believe that one aspect that affects perceptions of value remains whether or NOT various entities are engaging in Bitcoin scams and potentially faking the existence of coins through forms of fractional reserve banking (maybe kind of like Gox). IMHO, even those kinds of scams and rip-offs and corruption will NOT kill bitcoin, but they will have tendencies to deflate BTC prices and affect perceptions of BTC value. I am fairly confident that we are going to see BTC prices in the $10k to $30k range in the next 5 years and possibly even more, so long as there is some semblance of continued adoption in our current direction, yet it also seems likely that we still have to experience continued and ongoing downward price manipulations. At some point, probably, some of these larger manipulator players are going to perceive it to be in their interest to manipulate BTC prices upwards - and yes, we will all want to be onboard when that begins to occur and the momentum kicks in... b/c I would think that there is quite a bit of smart money that is just sitting on the side and just waiting to enter - but they do NOT want to enter while there remains some downward momentum and seeming incentives to push the price into the $200s and possibly lower than that... double digits do seem nearly impossible, but I would NOT even rule that out at this point. |
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At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no?
$300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase. He did NOT say that.
Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc.
[...]
In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range. And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now. Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC. and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay..
Oh sorry, I didn't realize I was Risto's personal post summarizer or that his tiny post even needed a summary. And sure I'm too dumb to know that 300 + "00" isn't 300.000. "Delusion of grandeur" much? (I don't remember who said that to Risto around that time but it kept sticking  ) The 300k I was referring to was risto's own prediction from ~18 months ago or so. But now that you mention it, I think that prediction was meant to come true at the end of last year, didn't it? I agree with your broad prediction however, 3-13k within 1-8 months seems very plausible. I'm betting on 6300$ around March-April 2015 then again a year of descent back to around 1500$ until moon 3.0. Look Ox3d, you and I largely agree on the general direction of bitcoin, and I do NOT expect that any of us are really soothe sayers regarding these price prediction matters. There are bigger whale manipulators who can probably influence the direction of bitcoin prices in the short term; however, they may or may NOT be able to totally control its price direction in the long term... especially if we may once again strike upon upward momentum that causes the flooding in of money that is likely waiting on the sidelines for the next run-up in BTC prices. Accordingly, so what if some of us get wrong our predictions. Some predictions are more bearish and some are more bullish and some are based on more logic and facts than others, and so what if Risto is more bullish than a large majority of us. There are things about Risto that bother me, including his sometimes cock-sure way of expressing some of his predictions or even his past performance and some arrogance of attempting to distinguish himself from others, which sometimes results in denigrations of others. Also, sometimes, I think he puts too much certainty in terms of mathematical models - and maybe a few other bragging aspects of his personality. Nonetheless, Risto frequently provides really decent analysis and fairly decent explanations concerning why and how he is arriving at his prediction(s). So what if he is wrong and even wrong by magnitudes and wrong in timing and even a little irritating because he seems to be pumping Monero in threads that are largely BTC (even if they happen to be his own threads)!!!!! |
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...
Evil and crafty people try to shake your bitcoins from you. ...
That capital "T" in "quality TA," what's it stand for again? Seems to mean "traumatized" in this case  We were supposed to be at 300.000$/BTC in about 3 weeks after all. Well at least it almost fits if we're talking price per kBTC, hehe. Other than that I can only agree with both of you. Yes, it's gonna be shaky until around christmas (big triangle ending around that time) and yes, I was expecting something more tangible, numeric but still better than nada. Thx Risto. At least you could summarize Risto a little better, no? $300k per BTC would be a 1000x price increase. He did NOT say that. Risto said 100x is possible, which would be $30k per btc. Personally, I think that Risto is much more bullish than me regarding his view of the BTC price trendline.... that influences his vision of future price and the timeline for such. Based on recent downward manipulation of BTC prices and attempts at removal of confidence from BTC and some recent hesitancies in BTC adoption, including the seeming reluctancies of some big players to jump in, I think that the BTC price trendline going forward is less steep and lower than what Risto is suggesting (also I do NOT believe that math and logic works to predict future human behavior when dealing with economics and politics etc). In any event, I am of the belief that once BTC prices go beyond $800 or $850, then there is going to be a rise and shooting past the prior ATH to the $3k to $13k price range. And, I believe that the rise to the new ATH is most likely to occur in 1 to 8 months from now. Surely, this prediction regarding BTC prices and the trendline could change if the rise in price is delayed by too much.. because ongoing suppression of BTC prices does affect overall sentiment towards BTC. and can have a negative rippling effect to cause further delay.. |
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Please don't make any comments to JJG... it is like when a tiger is in the room... just don't move. However, instead of getting eaten, here, we will be bombarded with walls of grammatically defective and incoherent text. Just shoot me now and put me out of my misery.
Yes, oh wise leader!!!!!!!  |
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LOLOLOLOLOLOL Where'd you dig that up from? Spend hours dredging through my post history? Get a life, noob. Hahahahaha I don't usually make predictions and you can see why. Obviously thoughts of an ATH by mid-summer were a little premature, despite being the majority opinion here at the time. Did you notice I used the words "probably" and "possibly"? Just in case English isn't your first language, the words mean that I wasn't saying we would reach the suggested prices, but rather that I was speculating that we may have been on the way to reaching them. While most of us may have been a little ahead of ourselves at that time, don't completely discount the possibility of reaching 5 digits some time next year, possibly even by next May. I'll give you the benefit of doubt and assume you're just a bumbling noob and not another ridiculous troll. LOLOLOL    Dude, seriously. Podyx just criticized my assessment on the market earlier when I was roughly 60 cents off. You, by contrast, were thousands of dollars off. That's worthy of repeat shaming. I mean, geez, if 60 cents gets a comment... thousands of dollars... sorry, but really? Reading comprehension not that great? I didn't say that bitcoins would be worth thousands. Echoing the popular sentiment of the time ( seven freaking months ago), I suggested the possibility/probability of that happening. My post was more about some foolish noob digging up some obscure ancient post to use as a "rebuttal" to my post about accumulating. Sigh. My ignore list is very short, just 2 extremely obnoxious and arrogant cretins, and despite your obvious troll attempts in the past, I hadn't considered putting you on it, but you're wearing my patience thin. I'll say the same thing I told the noob who apparently wasted a great deal of time (or was extremely lucky) sifting through my post history to try to find something they could call me on... Get a life. Don't let them get to you Jimbo. The trolls out number regular folks by at least 3 to 1. Some of them are just more egregious than others in their contents and worthiness of our attention. Your initial response was very good to give the benefit of the doubt to the noob - however, NOT Notporkchop, had been quoting some variation of your previous prediction - after nearly every time you posted... but who the fuck cares that NOT Notporkchop does NOT have a life, and then some noob trolls jump on board to quote and to get you to read it.... The noob had NOT done any research, but just jumped on the NOT Notporkchop bandwagon. but whatever, who cares... except that it distracts us from other potentially more meaningful discussion regarding bitcoin and quasi-related non-troll topics. Oh God. One village idiot talking to the next. Jesus Christ. I'll sell you both a few BTCs for a super low discount price of $1000000000000000000 if you'll just pipe down over there. Have you ever heard about being civil, Newbie? Supposedly, now you are the ole wise one? WTF? |
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JJG - Perhaps that is what Billy is doing. I saw it as him being open with his position for the most part, I don't see how he's acting like a big shot...but we're all just shouting shit at a wall ..how come we're so out to get him cause he was right? It may have been total luck with the Chinese FUD bomb..but still he was right? Again I hope you and others wouldn't swap positions solely because he was right in this time frame.
I don't have any resentment regarding him being right and/or lucky and/or skillful in his trading. I do have some resentfullness regarding his calling people names and implying that he is superior.. which he obviously does and he has been engaging in these kinds of my shit doesn't stink posts for a long time. He has already admitted several times that he uses this thread as a means to attempt persuade others to buy or sell BTC in line with his position, and I find that irritating. He is NOT being honest and genuine with his information b/c frequently he is trying to get people to sell (when it may well NOT be in their interest to sell)... surely, he is correct that if all BTC investors who follow this thread were able to pool together their buy and sell strategies, then we would have a major effect on the price of bitcoin and the movement of the market - but you know as well as me, that we are NOT going to get much if any cooperation in a public thread regarding when to buy and when to sell, and in the end, any coordinated effort is NOT going to work - especially in a public thread. In the end, I find his tactics very irritating - even though a large number of posters and readers of this thread do see through his various bullshit and bragging and attempts at gaining credibility.. by describing how smart he is (supposedly). |
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Here we are shitting bricks about bitcoin and oil is doing similar and getting bearish outlooks like this https://www.tradingview.com/v/oIgB9dwG/man I aint even going to sweat it anymore... Blitz is totally right about getting diversification of assets in order, especially when you're riding huge unlocked in profits from a crypto that is still in price discovery. Yeah, sure diversification is great and also NOT investing more than you can afford to lose is great too. NOW does NOT seem to be the time to be selling BTC in order to accomplish those kinds of objectives - however, each of us should feel free to come to our own conclusion(s) regarding when to diversify and how much based on our views, or risk profile, our assets, our already level of diversification, our timeline, etc. |
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LOLOLOLOLOLOL Where'd you dig that up from? Spend hours dredging through my post history? Get a life, noob. Hahahahaha I don't usually make predictions and you can see why. Obviously thoughts of an ATH by mid-summer were a little premature, despite being the majority opinion here at the time. Did you notice I used the words "probably" and "possibly"? Just in case English isn't your first language, the words mean that I wasn't saying we would reach the suggested prices, but rather that I was speculating that we may have been on the way to reaching them. While most of us may have been a little ahead of ourselves at that time, don't completely discount the possibility of reaching 5 digits some time next year, possibly even by next May. I'll give you the benefit of doubt and assume you're just a bumbling noob and not another ridiculous troll. LOLOLOL Dude, seriously. Podyx just criticized my assessment on the market earlier when I was roughly 60 cents off. You, by contrast, were thousands of dollars off. That's worthy of repeat shaming. I mean, geez, if 60 cents gets a comment... thousands of dollars... sorry, but really? Reading comprehension not that great? I didn't say that bitcoins would be worth thousands. Echoing the popular sentiment of the time ( seven freaking months ago), I suggested the possibility/probability of that happening. My post was more about some foolish noob digging up some obscure ancient post to use as a "rebuttal" to my post about accumulating. Sigh. My ignore list is very short, just 2 extremely obnoxious and arrogant cretins, and despite your obvious troll attempts in the past, I hadn't considered putting you on it, but you're wearing my patience thin. I'll say the same thing I told the noob who apparently wasted a great deal of time (or was extremely lucky) sifting through my post history to try to find something they could call me on... Get a life. Don't let them get to you Jimbo. The trolls out number regular folks by at least 3 to 1. Some of them are just more egregious than others in their contents and worthiness of our attention. Your initial response was very good to give the benefit of the doubt to the noob - however, NOT Notporkchop, had been quoting some variation of your previous prediction - after nearly every time you posted... but who the fuck cares that NOT Notporkchop does NOT have a life, and then some noob trolls jump on board to quote and to get you to read it.... The noob had NOT done any research, but just jumped on the NOT Notporkchop bandwagon. but whatever, who cares... except that it distracts us from other potentially more meaningful discussion regarding bitcoin and quasi-related non-troll topics. |
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Hey billy well played sticking to your guns.
Thanks. I think $320 is a false bottom. Even if it is the bottom, it will be tested several times so there is no need to jump on the train the first time. Don't expect help from the BearWhale's millions above $300. For those of you who say you're holding no matter what- why are you watching the charts? Do you enjoy pain? Let me spare you the suspense: It's prolly gonna creep up enough to give what-ever's left of the permabulls and the naive a false sense of security, and then we're gonna hammer you again. I'm going to keep using this one on all the trolls  BJA - is acting as if he is some big shot whale and that he represents some kind of superior class, and even if he did make one good call to sell high and to buy low, who gives a flying fuck? NOW, he is here trying to get people to follow his lead and to dump. Hopefully BJA will NOT get too greedy and lose his shirt - like he seems to have done during many times in the past when he disappeared from the forums. Seems to make him a bigger loser that he seems to attempt to use these forums to his trading pleasure and to attempt to benefit from persuading others to follow his stupid-ass lead. Sad, but true.   |
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Voted: price on monday:
>390 - 56 (40%)
385 - 14 (10%)
380 - 14 (10%)
375 - 14 (10%)
370 - 6 (4.3%)
365 - 7 (5%)
<360 - 29 (20.7%)
We have winners Yeah, but what is "Monday," exactly? What hours? Is Monday over yet? IT is only approaching 2pm, here in sunny california. |
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If you say anything but "up up up" and "to da moon" guaranteed you're going to offend some people on here.
Its not that. Pretty sure it is that. Most bears around here got into bitcoin due to media hype either around November 2013 or later and hence have only seen a downward market which is blinding them to the future of digital decentralized and programmable money. These bears are the get rick quick types that are pissed that bitcoin hasn't made them millionaires yet. You mean like that JayJuanGee guy? Quite the bear he is. Anyway, can you blame people for being disillusioned when all the "respected" and "reputable" permabulls on here were screaming "OMFG BUY BUY BUY WE WILL NEVER SEE BELOW 1000 AGAIN!" You know, the same guys who cry about bears when the price goes down? People that have been around a while have been treated really well by bitcoin and have gained great wealth with more to come with time. If your a bear and hoping to "strike it rich" buy some bitcoin and wait a while FFS, shit doesn't happen overnight.
People that have been around for a while have been fortunate to see a huge bubble, but that won't stop people like you from telling new people to buy as if $100k per BTC were a foregone conclusion. Seriously, if you do have that crystal ball that assures you of that, you can probably use it to make money in a whole lot of other ways, too. I am feeling pretty good to have received an honorable mention, here, even though in jest and with some reserved sarcasm.... |
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I decided to buy a pretty decent chunk of coins (approximately 26 BTC).
Therefore, my average price per BTC in my own BTC holdings came down from approximately $558 to $537.
So you have like ~225 bitcoins now. Especially in your case, that is at least putting your money where your mouth is Lets see what Monday brings us, after some shaky hands dumping during Fri-Mon. Hahahahahaha.... I will neither admit NOR deny... I had been thinking about how much detail I should provide... |
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One bid could take them all... Bidders must register to participate in a designated Series. Bidders may register to participate in more than one Series, but must provide the required deposit for each Series (i.e. the deposit requirement aggregates depending on the number of Series selected).
As with the last auction, one registration allows you to bid on multiple blocks for the same price, but does not allow you submit multiple bids at varying prices. If you wish to have the ability to bid multiple prices on multiple blocks within the same Series, you will need to submit another registration form and additional deposit. The following examples are provided for your convenience:
Example 1: A bid to purchase three (3) blocks of Series A for the same per bitcoin price (e.g. $X per bitcoin for 6,000 Series A bitcoins) requires ONE registration form for Series A with a $100,000 deposit. Use ONE Bid Form to bid for ALL THREE Series A blocks.
Example 2: A bid to purchase three (3) blocks of Series A for the same per bitcoin price (e.g. $X per bitcoin for 6,000 Series A bitcoins), and two (2) blocks of Series B for the same per bitcoin price (e.g. $Y per bitcoin for 6,000 Series B bitcoins) requires ONE registration form for BOTH Series A and B with a $250,000 deposit ($100,000 for Series A plus $150,000 for Series B). Use ONE Bid Form to bid for Series A AND Series B blocks. Note that the per-bitcoin price for Series A does not need to match the Series B per-bitcoin price.
Example 3: Three (3) separate bids to purchase blocks of Series A at different prices (e.g. $X per bitcoin for 2,000 bitcoins, $Y per bitcoin for 2,000 bitcoins, and $Z per bitcoin for 2,000 bitcoins) requires THREE separate registration forms (EACH selecting Series A), and a $300,000 deposit ($100,000 for EACH registration). Use THREE Bid Forms, ONE FOR EACH Series A block. Note that each registration also permits a bidder to register for other Series (requiring additional deposits). thanks for this so 27bids doesn't look so bearish after all Seems fairly bullish, actually. The logical thing for any registered bidder would be to decide his/her its bid price and then bid for as many lots as s/he it can afford to buy at that decided bid price, if s/he it were the winning bidder. CUT YOUR LOOSES>>>>>>>>>> CCMF!!!!! |
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Wow!!!!!!!! If that's true, then that is surely a small number of bids. 27 bids for 20 lots? I may have to revise my thinking based on that news if it were true. yes but maybe someones 1 bid was for 10 blocks @390 bids vs bidders? I would assume 27 bidders = open to bid on all blocks.. still a decent amount of action to compete with if so. Yeah.... TOO much mystery here... 27 bidders is very bullish however 27 bids would be very bearish. |
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my bet is all coins sold for atleast 450  i'm thinking 400 was top bid on a few of the blocks the rest are 350+ hopefully we get some info about this in the coming days. i dont think we will... we will have to look to the market's movement for answers, 10$ says market stays flat as fuck for 10 days I don't think so, there is a larger triangle that will break in a couple of days. As for the auction, I believe most bids should have been around 300$ and lower and the gov may not have sold all now. 27 bid says you're wrong 10 blocks with 2000btc + 10 blocks with 3000btc... you do the math. Winning bids were probably 10% above the market price. Well it's not my maths, just posting the article. I'm sure you can make one bid for multiple blocks, it's not EBAY. i had not considered that. That's an interesting factoid.. and surely such a factoid would make a difference. If it were true that one bid could be for multiple blocks, then 27 bids could be very bullish, on the other hand if the bids are limited to one block, then 27 bids is fairly bearish, in my humble bumble opinion. |
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Wow!!!!!!!! If that's true, then that is surely a small number of bids. 27 bids for 20 lots? I may have to revise my thinking based on that news if it were true. |
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I was just thinking of a terrible rom-com movie called "Failure to Launch" with Sarah Jessica Horseface and Mathew McSomethingScottish. I don't know why.
What are the odds bulls can get the 1 HR moving average to go green before the Chinese wake up? I want to double up my short position.
YOU GO GIRL!!!!! |
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