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Hi Michael,
mein Eindruck nach 2 Monaten hier ist dass es eine gesunde, gute Mischung von leuten gibt. Die meisten mit denen ich persoenlich zu tun habe, sind von der Idee, dem Konzept von bitcoins sehr ueberzeugt und wollen es weiterfuehren. Oft treiben sie sogar umsonst die Sache voran, und entwicjkeln tage, monatelang bestimmte programme, websites, etc.
Wie du gemerkt hast gibt es auch eine Handvoll leute, die enweder nur auf geld aus sind, oder einfach stunden-, tage, wochenlang diskutieren wollen. Meiner erfahrung nach lassen sich jene nie ueberzeugen..
Also, weiter dranbleiben, und "chose your battles": Manche muss man wie im richtigen leben einfach labern lassen dann hoeren sie schon von selbst auf.
Zu der sache selbst: ein starterkit finde ich gut, aber meiner meinung nach genuegt auch ein einfacher weg bitcoins zu aquirieren ("purchased trial is better than free trial", denn wenn leute was umsonst bekomen, gehen sie anders damit um als wenn sie etwas dafuer einsetzen mussten.
Vielleicht ist ein win-win ja sowas wie ein Starter-Discount, d.h. die ersten 100 BTC gibts 10% oder 20% billiger.
bis bald wieder
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I think there are two things to distinguish:
1) How to easily acquire bitcoins
This should really be very simple if we want to have bitcoin usage growing. At the same time, it should not be mandatory to give it out free. If some people chose to do so, fine.
I compare it a bit with seeds. To enjoy a growing apple tree you have to go into a store and buy seeds. If your neighbor gives you a couple of seeds, nice from him, but you shouldn't go to your neighbors garden and steal the apples.
2) How to generate
This is like gold mining. A novice with a spade alone won't be able to get a lot of gold. But this is fine, because gold miners invest a lot of resorces (capital, people, technology) into it. They have deserved to mine more gold as John Doe Average.
The only thing we need to be careful is managing expectations. It should be clarified in the client, on bitcoin.org, etc. what people can expect to generate with a couple of different computers systems (standard PC, laptop, server clusers, etc... at least ballpark figures). There is really no need to change the system, but we all do not want to disappoint new (potential) bitcoin users.
Makes sense?
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As BTC/USD is sleeping right now, I have some spare capacity to provide a brief update on one selected market as an appetizer for free:
SILVER spot in $
I am chosing Silver as this has been discussed a lot in this forum. Key sentiment was that Silver will continue to rise, which in my view is a clear contrary view. Instead, Silver is on its way down after an "x-mas tree rise". x-mas tree often look very symmetrical...
Silver has registered a key weekly downward reversal last week (new high at 29.35 $ , but then close down for the week).
This reversal may hold for months, if not years to come. Prices should initially move quickly down to 20$ , which is a big decline from current levels, and a (leveraged) short position may prove very successful.
Key watchout for that call is that Silver sports very often "double tops" (see peaks in 2006, 2008). But in any case, a pop to a new high should be quickly reversed to the initial target of 20$. Further downward potential exists to well below 10$.
Your S3052
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I feel no need to post another update this evening. All has been said this morning, so I am posting this again, with minor finetuning.
The market is dead (for now).
"Based on price and volume developments over the past days, we see the most likely short term direction DOWN.
Prices may test the longterm uptrend line (currently around 0.13-0.165) or at least the 0.20 support area before potentially continuing the rally.
Only a break above the 0.30-0.35$ range will invalidate this picture."
Next update Wednesday, Nov 17th (provided the market starts to wake up again)
Your S3052
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This is to post an interim alert on BTC/USD.
Based on price and volume developments over the past days, we see the most likely short term direction DOWN.
Prices may test the longterm uptrend line (currently around 0.13-0.165) before potentially continuing the rally.
Only a break above 0.35$ will invalidate this picture.
S3052
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"customer is boss"
If there are many complaints, we better take them into account
A customer is a customer only if he buys. People who complain about how difficult it is to generate don't buy any bitcoins, almost per definition. So we can't consider them as "customers". The point is not about the definition of customers or potential customers or (I should have better called them) potential USERS. we need to quickly enable simple ways for them to buy bitcoins. I agree with grondilu that we should not think they should get them all for free - by the way, bitcoin faucet is great but most people want af least a ciuple of hundreds of bitcoins. there are so many people interested out there who will be willing to bug some limited amounts of bitcoins. |
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yes, its related to the size of the sell orders. If one really wanted to sell that many coins soon, one would not put so many orders in at the same time , but would let the market move higher and then skim it.
we may never find out exactly what's behind , and clearly this is all allowed, but I guess this is someone or a few people who know exactly what they are doing, and there must be some deeper objective behind (an objective that required keeping the market under 0.30$ for quite some time)
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"customer is boss"
If there are many complaints, we better take them into account
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We still don't understand the motive behind those sell orders.
... and we are still in the same deadlock as the 130,000 bitcoin sell orders are still ceiling the market.
Now buy orders moved close to the sell orders which further reduces trading activity ultimately.
Unless buyers come in prices will trend sideways or down for a while.
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fine with me.. in the world of marketing, you'd execute it like:
0% transaction costs*
*most transactions have zero cost
or
*with the use of ... most transactions have costs below 0.01%
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Just posted and on top, I have sent them a private message: "Hello, I recently joined flattr and I really love the idea. However, the payment options you offer have a fundamental flaw: They are all too expensive as they charge huge fees. Please have a look at BITCOINS, as this has all the advantages you need PLUS the benefit of 0% transaction costs. There are increasingly more people supporting it, see http://forum.flattr.net/showthread.php?tid=550&pid=3492#pid3492By when can I expect you to enable BITCOINS? I am sure that this is a big opportunity to get flattr even much more widespread. Cheers!" Their e-mail address is forum@flattr.com |
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Here is the additional service I am offering, see separate thread: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1779.0All, as some of you have experienced, I cover BTC/USD in the trading discussion and also on MtGox blog, and I will continue to do so. Since I have been successfully analyzing key financial markets over the past 12 years, I am extending my service now to the following financial instruments and - as I love so much the Bitcoin idea - will only accept bitcoins as payment. * Gold * Silver * DJI * Nasdaq 100 * EUR/USD * USD index (DXY) I am using technical analysis (indicators, wave principles, etc), coupled with sentiment measures and my personal experience. Since I am not a web developer, I am starting this simply here on the forum via requests per mail. Initially, I will accept 20 requests per week only. Initially, price is as follows: Time horizon is not intraday, but rather days, weeks and months. I will respond to your request within 48h, unless stated otherwise. Once I have answered 20 requests per week, I will close the consultancy in the respective week. Examples of requests can be as follows: * How do you see Gold in USD developing over the next 4 weeks, (or 7 days, 2 months) * I am trading DJI. What is your recommendation (long/short) over the next 7 days? What are possible entry and exit points? etc. Buy low and sell high! |
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All, as some of you have experienced, I cover BTC/USD in the trading discussion and also on MtGox blog, and I will continue to do so. Since I have been successfully analyzing key financial markets over the past 12 years, I am extending my service now to the following financial instruments and - as I love so much the Bitcoin idea - will only accept bitcoins as payment.Time horizon is not intraday, but rather days, weeks and months. I will respond to your request within 48h, unless stated otherwise. Once I have answered 20 requests per week, I will close the consultancy in the respective week. Examples of requests can be as follows: * How do you see Gold in USD developing over the next 4 weeks, (or 7 days, 2 months) * I am trading DJI. What is your recommendation (long/short) over the next 7 days? What are possible entry and exit points? etc. Buy low and sell high! |
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big buyers need to step in to create a rally. otherwise price stays rangebound.
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Just a comment:
Currently, it seems that one or a few big players put huge selling volume into MtGox at 0.30-0.35 $. This can have a number of reasons. One of them could be that they try to acquire much more bitcoins to dominate the market even further.
By putting huge selling volume into the market, they ensure that the market can not rise (unless people buy about 100,000 bitcoins). With this strategy, they put a lid on the market to collect cheap coins.
Otherwise, it would not make sense to show all market participants the huge selling volume so openly. If they would be interesting into rising prices in the short term, they would not show their sell orders, but would do this more hidden (as some other forum member has pointed out as well).
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As promised, here tonight's Bitcoin Forecast and Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update.
Our forecast over the past weeks and even short term over the past days was fulfilled in an almost text book manner. (just look at the previous updates).
Sometime we will also be wrong, so please recognize that you trade at your own risk.
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Good advice. Thanks.
Let me find out with them why they have moved it. At least I want to ask one question (to find out whether it was because I am not yet trusted enough on this forum or if they think it is because of bitcoins not widely accepted as commodity / currency.
Any objections before I ask them?
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Someone from forexfactory moved our thread to the category "Forums > Commercial Forum (beta) > Under Evaluation". I don't understand it but as long as people can see it I am fine and don't think we need to fight this battle. Here is the new link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=264527&page=2 |
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