I'm really interested to see if the halving will really make any real difference to the price of bitcoin.
Up over 100% since August, one might say it already has. It seems no one will recognize that the price increase is due to the upcoming halving unless it goes to the moon the day before the halving. If you're expecting the price to double in day, or waiting for any similarly drastic price increase in a short period of time, you're not being realistic. We've already seen a HUGE increase (again, over 100% in 6 months), and everyone keeps saying "I wonder what the halving is going to do to the price" or "I wonder when the price is going to increase due to the halving." It has happened. It may continue to happen, but there's a fair chance you've already missed most or all of it. |
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Combustion engine is actually 19th century technology. It's weird why an engine which is only 30% energy efficient is still being used. It's ancient. Electric cars are the future. Say bye to big oil in next decades. Lithium is the key.
Yes you are may be right. but what is price for electric car- purchasing price? Producing price per car ? Maintenance, battery ? Combustion engine may be an "ancient" technology, but it is so pervasive because for the amount of energy you get for the cost, combustion engines are cheap and easy. I also believe electric cars are the future. I currently own a hybrid car. Comparatively, a hybrid car costs a few thousand dollars more than the exact same non-hybrid version, about $2-3k. I've more than made up that cost in the years of driving it, so it's been a sound investment. As for electric-only, there are plenty of viable models that are not overly expensive. The Nissan Leaf starts at $29k and the Chevy Volt starts at $33k. Tesla is working on a version now as well that will start in the mid-$30k range. The biggest limitation for electric-only vehicles for me is the range. I think the Leaf is around 100 miles, and the Volt offers 50 electric-only miles, though it does run on gas as well. |
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Think the other way round.
Fiat will not be worthless but bitcoin would be.
Since fiat is backed up by governments it will remain stable no matter where the price of bitcoin goes.
But I dont think bitcoin will reach $10 in first place. At least not in next 5 years from now.
So I voted for no.
Being backed by a government doesn't mean anything. There have been plenty of fiat currencies that have been backed by a government and become worthless: Germany after WWI, Zimbabwe in the 1990s, and Venezuela right now is suffering over 100% inflation rates. Those are just a very small sample too. Being backed by a government doesn't make it a sound currency. |
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What is the current inflation rate and how frequently does it drop? Is it at set intervals?
There are two things that inflate the active money supply: 1) staking 2) digging Staking: every time a new block is found, 1 new CLAM is created. The network stakes 1 block per minute on average. That's 1440 new CLAMs per day. There are currently a little less than 1.6 million CLAMs in the active money supply, so the 1440 new CLAMs created daily correspond to 0.09% inflation per day, or around 33% over the next year. >>> 1440.0 * 100 / 1.6e6 0.09 >>> 365 * 1440.0 * 100 / 1.6e6 32.85 Digging: CLAM was initially given out free to all BTC, LTC, and DOGE holders. Most of those holders didn't claim their CLAMs, but they still can if they want to. So far only 832,961 CLAM were claimed out of around 15 million. It's possible that someone will start claiming thousands of old BTC addresses which will cause sudden massive inflation. And it's possible they won't. We just can't tell. So how often does the inflation rate drop? Staking: inflation is 1 CLAM per minute, but the total supply is constantly increasing, so as a percentage that 1 CLAM per minute is less each time. Digging: it depends entirely on when people dig, and how much. Ok, turns out I knew more than I thought. I knew all of this, so when you said the inflation rate was dropping over time, I was wondering if the rate of *new* clams was dropping (as in, instead of a new clam every minute, a new clam every two minutes or half a clam per minute) so that the inflation rate slows. But I see now that you're talking about the inflation rate as a function of what already exists, not in absolute terms. |
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it actually can do this if bitcoin will be popular enough among the people, though its a really hard thing to do
Bitcoin will not replace a fiat currency but It will replace US dollars place in international market due to its price growth and development. It will happen for sure once more adoption in business world. May it would more than 5 years at least from current situation. Price of the bitcoin also will be more than 1000$ for sure. Yeah, it would cross $1k mark in near future and it would be much higher then that, but the fact is people will still continue to use fiat even if the value of bitcoin reaches to the moon, bitcoin will always be a secondary currency. Price will fall after halving and we don't know whether it will go up again or not, but we will see a major dump after halving, but the future of fiat is safe and people will continue to use it. Why do you say price will fall after halving? I've seen people prognosticating every which way on the topic, just wondering why you take it as a given that it will. |
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it actually can do this if bitcoin will be popular enough among the people, though its a really hard thing to do
Bitcoin will not replace a fiat currency but It will replace US dollars place in international market due to its price growth and development. It will happen for sure once more adoption in business world. May it would more than 5 years at least from current situation. Price of the bitcoin also will be more than 1000$ for sure. There's no way bitcoin replaces the USD's place in the international market without replacing the USD itself. Bitcoin is far to volatile to be an international currency. Currencies need to be a stable store of value, and bitcoin isn't, nor is it close to being one. |
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128 days until the halving from now aprox. the prices can rise before than this happens...........................
Yeah, this time we can't predict whats gonna happen after halving. It is sure that price has started increase which is a great news for all users. The price will start increasing very soon. It will before the actual halving. But it also depends on other things such as block size increase. funny thing, is that the price will begin to increase not because of the halvng, but because everyone is assuming that it willincrease, so they will beginn to buy it en-mass, and start the actual increase of the price so the speculator once again will be the real maker of the increase Hehe yes that's possible. What I'm most curious about is when it will start happen and for how long. Will it be a constant increase over a few weeks, months? A crazy **cking ride for a few days? Or will it be an increase with some pauses and slight corrections? It's happening right now and you're apparently not noticing. Bitcoin has doubled since August and people keep asking "when is it gonna happen, when is it gonna happen?" The question they should be asking instead is "Where have I been while it's been happening?" |
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In Bitcoin or fiat-money? In Bitcoin you can use a forex provider like 1Broker. If you want to invest in oil with fiat you could buy a oil ETC (exchange traded fund) like this one. how to invest on oil ?
1Broker? Is it a trusted broker? How does it work exactly? You don't own the security, you own a derivative based on the security issued by 1broker. It's riskier, I'd avoid and stick to mainstream brokers if you actually want to invest in something. |
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According to the official report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) the world's oil demand has dropped from Q3/2015 to Q1/2016. Source: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/The demand of OIL just drop significantly and the supply is over flowing with reason of recent ban lifts.
All economy that depends on oil suffer the most. Many people are losing their job because of this.
Demand for oil has not dropped significantly. It is steadily increasing on a global level. It's supply that is out of whack. One quarter sequential drop doesn't change the trend. There are variations quarter to quarter based on the seasonality of oil consumption. The trend is still going up. |
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Hi, I did some math on my commision history and I figured out, that if you have offsite less than 6 you are paying more on the staking fees, that you make on the bankroll.
I am investing on JD since January last year. Without offsite my bankroll profit would be 5 CLAMs while my staking profit is 300. It means I "paid" 30 CLAMs on staking fees while get only 5 on bankroll.
With offsite 10x its still ok, but if you are using offsite 1x is investing on JD pointless (in case you are investing only because of bankroll profit).
I don't know if you understand how it works or not, so I'll explain: 1) Bankroll profits are charged 10% commission on new net profits at the end of each week. 2) Staking profits are charged 10% commission at source. So if in a week you earn 10 CLAMs from staking and 10 CLAMs from bankrolling, you will pay 1 CLAM commission twice and end up with 18 CLAMs profit. You seem to be saying that if you are at offsite 6x then the staking profit is 10 times the bankroll profit, and so the commission on staking is equal to the profit from bankrolling. That may be the case, but I don't understand your point. What of it? If your bankroll profit didn't cover your staking commission you're still making a profit on both. Currently, CLAM inflation is pretty high, and so staking rewards tend to swamp bankroll profits. The rate of inflation drops constantly, and so over time we can expect bankroll profits to become increasingly significant. I don't know very much about this. What is the current inflation rate and how frequently does it drop? Is it at set intervals? |
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Suddenly, without warning:  You're the Japan to his whale! |
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The demand of OIL just drop significantly and the supply is over flowing with reason of recent ban lifts.
All economy that depends on oil suffer the most. Many people are losing their job because of this.
Demand for oil has not dropped significantly. It is steadily increasing on a global level. It's supply that is out of whack. |
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India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..
The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future. China's oil consumption is definitely not falling. It may in the future, but it's highly doubtful anytime in the near future based on how rapidly it's currently increasing.  There are around 1 billion people alone in china and india who dream to live like westerners. (Around 1,5 billion more people in 3rd world and emerging countries) Oil is the cheapest way to get them their. If indian and chinese economy are doing fine there consumption will increase by a lot in the future. Btw. What is the actual US oil production?In answer to your question:  |
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Royal Bank of Scotland economists have urged investors to sell everything except high-quality bonds, warning of a “fairly cataclysmic year ahead.” Writing in a client note dated Jan. 8, the bank’s European rates research team said that clients should be concentrating on return of capital, not return on capital, and that an ominous outlook to the world economy “all looks similar to 2008.”
The Key Points- The note is particularly bearish on China and global commodities, and predicts that oil could fall as low as $16 a barrel.
- In a grim set of predictions, Andrew Roberts, head of European economics, rates & CEEMEA research said that the world has far too much debt to be able to grow well.
- He also warned that advances in technology and automation are set to wipe out up to half of all jobs in the developed world.
- The note says equities could fall 10% to 20%.
- It predicts the year will be spent focusing on how to exit positions that have benefited from long-running QE, including emerging markets, credit and equities.
Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/01/12/rbs-warns-sell-everything/?mod=e2fbRBSA 10 to 20% fall in equities certainly isn't a long shot. QE has produced a long run-up in stock prices, and on average, we see a market correction of 10% every two years and a 20% correction every five years. Still, the advice to "sell everything" seems a bit much. Ok might call me a communist but first guess first: never trust the rating teams. The "high economists" are always certainly wrong. Why would they be able to predict next crash if they were never able to do so before? And let's be clear, they have no interest in being right. If they make a public prediction, I'd do the exact opposite. Time to buy as it seems. Well, if you bought when this report first came out, you're currently getting crushed. So being a contrarian just to be a contrarian isn't sound advice either. |
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India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..
The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future. China's oil consumption is definitely not falling. It may in the future, but it's highly doubtful anytime in the near future based on how rapidly it's currently increasing. |
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India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..
The population of the US is rising and oil consumption is decreasing because the US economy is transitioning from towards more efficient vehicles and renewable energy, so yes, clearly something can be done without stopping the rise of population. |
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128 days until the halving from now aprox. the prices can rise before than this happens...........................
In the last four months, we've gone from the low-to-mid 200's to about $400. What makes you think that isn't the run up to the halving? Bitcoin is up over 70% in the last four months. Maybe you missed it. I'm hopeful it will continue to go up, but I won't be surprised if it's reached its high point already related to the halving hype. |
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It is just risk aversion.
When stock markets tank, people look for safe investment assets.
Gold and yen are natural beneficiaries.
I see gold as an obvious choice, but yen? US Treasuries are far safer than the yen, especially with the strong dollar currently. |
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Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.
You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down. Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say. Population is a factor, but not the bottom line. The population of the US and Europe are rising, but total oil consumption is decreasing in both of those regions. Rising population doesn't automatically translate to rising oil consumption. What's more important is the developing economies that are using oil to create a middle class more efficiently like the western world did over the last century and a half. |
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The Saudi's actually did start cutting production a bit towards the end of 2015, but the cuts were nominal. I can't find data for anything more recent than October 2015.
July 31, 2015 10.29M
Aug. 31, 2015 10.29M
Sept. 30, 2015 10.19M
Oct. 31, 2015 10.14M
150,000 barrels a month, a drop of 1.4%. Hardly worth mentioning, except that it is actually a drop in production. With their cash crunch, I'll be interested to see what comes in the next 12 months, whether the price recovers and especially if it doesn't. The data is correct, but the interpretation is wrong. There is a seasonal component to crude oil production. In a normal year, the maximum crude oil production will be recorded in June-August period, with the production declining during September - December. So it not correct to compare oil production in July to that in October. If you want to compare oil production in October 2015, then you should take the figures from October 2014 as the benchmark. Check this:  Saudi Arabia increased its production by more than 5% in 2015. That is huge. Good to know, thanks. |
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