Long term OIL

[deisik]

People watching price and trying to predict for a year or two.
This is not problem,We are near peak. When producing of oil starts to decline price will start to jump like crazy, and hardly will ever again be so cheap.
They can achieve this and with artificial crisis like wars, terrorist attacks..

The latter is more likely to happen. There is a lot of oil out there (actually, it is everywhere), so producing can hardly diminish on its own (or due to low prices)

[plost24]

I don't know if it is a great investing i think bitcoin is more beter that oil

[MedaR]

Bitcoin is small fish yet.
Oil is one great giant in possession only by great multinational corporations.
Those corporations are very cruel and only think on profit.
Bitcoin is small in adoption process platform for transactions.
Still very vulnerable.

[jaysabi]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

[jaysabi]

Incidentally, OPEC may be about to blink on the supply side.

Oil prices scored their biggest one-day gain since 2009 Friday after hitting 12-year lows a day earlier, as hopes of production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fueled a rally.

...

The spike came after a United Arab Emirates Energy Minister suggested that OPEC members "are ready to cooperate on a cut," TheWall Street Journal reported Thursday.

[Rotator]

It's very hard to keep up with world.
One day price of Oil falling down, another day gold going down.
You must be like those guys in movie Wolf of wall street
non stop high!

[bryant.coleman]

Incidentally, OPEC may be about to blink on the supply side.

I don't think that this will materialize. Right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the major stumbling blocks in agreeing to a cut in crude oil production. However, in the recent days, Russia has been giving out signals in favor of a production cut. But Saudi Arabia is still adamant about maintaining its market share, and don't want to cut the production.

[jaysabi]

Incidentally, OPEC may be about to blink on the supply side.

I don't think that this will materialize. Right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the major stumbling blocks in agreeing to a cut in crude oil production. However, in the recent days, Russia has been giving out signals in favor of a production cut. But Saudi Arabia is still adamant about maintaining its market share, and don't want to cut the production.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Saudi Arabia is hurting, and I think they'll blink eventually. They've instituted taxes for the first time and cut the subsidies in gas, electricity, and many other government programs to try and preserve cash, but they're still burning it an unsustainable rate. Either the price of oil has to rise on its own, or they'll have to help it.

[Laosai]

Yet another crash day  on oil 27$ per barrel,will  be no rebound global economy is slowing down
There is no new tigers,more and more oil,less demand

Oil demand growth is steady in Asia (and also probably is in other countries in development)

Yeah but the demand curve has to be compared to prod curve ^^

[jaysabi]

Yet another crash day  on oil 27$ per barrel,will  be no rebound global economy is slowing down
There is no new tigers,more and more oil,less demand

Oil demand growth is steady in Asia (and also probably is in other countries in development)

[big picture snip]

Yeah but the demand curve has to be compared to prod curve ^^

US production in barrels:

2010    1,998,583,000   
2011   2,057,608,000
2012   2,370,114,000
2013   2,720,782,000
2014   3,178,555,000

That's a steep ramp up, and it's only slightly lower than the 1970s, which was an all time high in oil production in the US. 1970 was the biggest year ever in US production at 3,517,450,000 barrels.

Not as easy to find world production, but Saudi Arabia hasn't been cutting production.

[Zeke2345]

I think the Saudis can go at this maybe another year before it really causes them issues,there are cracks but nothing they can not fix once oil returns. Their big issue is they are trying to run new players into the ground and the States is one of those players. So they thought they could screw with the States and now in return Iran is getting green light at expense to the Saudis. So that play backfired and they will have to fund a lot more cold war operations in the middle east,meaning oil will have to go up.

Saudis I think really misread the environment or maybe I am misreading their attempts to run the game.

[romero121]

Incidentally, OPEC may be about to blink on the supply side.

I don't think that this will materialize. Right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the major stumbling blocks in agreeing to a cut in crude oil production. However, in the recent days, Russia has been giving out signals in favor of a production cut. But Saudi Arabia is still adamant about maintaining its market share, and don't want to cut the production.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Saudi Arabia is hurting, and I think they'll blink eventually. They've instituted taxes for the first time and cut the subsidies in gas, electricity, and many other government programs to try and preserve cash, but they're still burning it an unsustainable rate. Either the price of oil has to rise on its own, or they'll have to help it.

Saudi Arabia is adamant, just because the countries economy has much down. It is completely dependent on oil. Now due to the surplus in the market, its production needs to be cut down but this cutting of production increases the economical impact more.

[Yakamoto]

Incidentally, OPEC may be about to blink on the supply side.

I don't think that this will materialize. Right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the major stumbling blocks in agreeing to a cut in crude oil production. However, in the recent days, Russia has been giving out signals in favor of a production cut. But Saudi Arabia is still adamant about maintaining its market share, and don't want to cut the production.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Saudi Arabia is hurting, and I think they'll blink eventually. They've instituted taxes for the first time and cut the subsidies in gas, electricity, and many other government programs to try and preserve cash, but they're still burning it an unsustainable rate. Either the price of oil has to rise on its own, or they'll have to help it.

Saudi Arabia is adamant, just because the countries economy has much down. It is completely dependent on oil. Now due to the surplus in the market, its production needs to be cut down but this cutting of production increases the economical impact more.

It's interesting to see the economic game going on in the Middle East and a lot of the oil-exporting nations, since the Saudis don't want to turn off the tap and the other nations are having huge economic impacts because their oil companies are generating less taxes for the government.

The Saudis likely will not stop their production anytime soon, or at least nowhere where the price will recover.

[jaysabi]

Incidentally, OPEC may be about to blink on the supply side.

I don't think that this will materialize. Right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the major stumbling blocks in agreeing to a cut in crude oil production. However, in the recent days, Russia has been giving out signals in favor of a production cut. But Saudi Arabia is still adamant about maintaining its market share, and don't want to cut the production.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Saudi Arabia is hurting, and I think they'll blink eventually. They've instituted taxes for the first time and cut the subsidies in gas, electricity, and many other government programs to try and preserve cash, but they're still burning it an unsustainable rate. Either the price of oil has to rise on its own, or they'll have to help it.

Saudi Arabia is adamant, just because the countries economy has much down. It is completely dependent on oil. Now due to the surplus in the market, its production needs to be cut down but this cutting of production increases the economical impact more.

It's interesting to see the economic game going on in the Middle East and a lot of the oil-exporting nations, since the Saudis don't want to turn off the tap and the other nations are having huge economic impacts because their oil companies are generating less taxes for the government.

The Saudis likely will not stop their production anytime soon, or at least nowhere where the price will recover.

The Saudi's actually did start cutting production a bit towards the end of 2015, but the cuts were nominal. I can't find data for anything more recent than October 2015.

July 31, 2015   10.29M
Aug. 31, 2015   10.29M
Sept. 30, 2015   10.19M
Oct. 31, 2015   10.14M

150,000 barrels a month, a drop of 1.4%. Hardly worth mentioning, except that it is actually a drop in production. With their cash crunch, I'll be interested to see what comes in the next 12 months, whether the price recovers and especially if it doesn't.

[bryant.coleman]

The Saudi's actually did start cutting production a bit towards the end of 2015, but the cuts were nominal. I can't find data for anything more recent than October 2015.

July 31, 2015   10.29M
Aug. 31, 2015   10.29M
Sept. 30, 2015   10.19M
Oct. 31, 2015   10.14M

150,000 barrels a month, a drop of 1.4%. Hardly worth mentioning, except that it is actually a drop in production. With their cash crunch, I'll be interested to see what comes in the next 12 months, whether the price recovers and especially if it doesn't.

The data is correct, but the interpretation is wrong.

There is a seasonal component to crude oil production. In a normal year, the maximum crude oil production will be recorded in June-August period, with the production declining during September - December. So it not correct to compare oil production in July to that in October. If you want to compare oil production in October 2015, then you should take the figures from October 2014 as the benchmark.

Check this:



Saudi Arabia increased its production by more than 5% in 2015. That is huge.

[MedaR]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say.

[Laosai]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say.

Gotta take into account the fact that all major Western countries are currently transforming their consumption. Simple example: European countries are going to make it illegal for supermarkets to use plastic bags. Which means less oil used. The consumpton of those countries might just stabilize and even decrease over time.

[Fesatmas]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say.

Gotta take into account the fact that all major Western countries are currently transforming their consumption. Simple example: European countries are going to make it illegal for supermarkets to use plastic bags. Which means less oil used. The consumpton of those countries might just stabilize and even decrease over time.

In the England, there will be 7.8 billion less plastic bags used, that that is very small amount of oil consumption.

[Kprawn]

These Oil monopolies needs disruption... and it's long overdue. They have been manipulating the supply for years and we have been suffering because

of that. The countries without oil are forced to buy this oil at their weak currency value and their economy were held back. Bitcoin can change this, if it

becomes a world reserve currency. It will level the playing field, in a sense.

[Laosai]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say.

Gotta take into account the fact that all major Western countries are currently transforming their consumption. Simple example: European countries are going to make it illegal for supermarkets to use plastic bags. Which means less oil used. The consumpton of those countries might just stabilize and even decrease over time.

In the England, there will be 7.8 billion less plastic bags used, that that is very small amount of oil consumption.

Yeah of course I know, it's just an example. The important aspect is that they all want to get rid of the majority of oil consumption.