Bitcoin has a market cap of 3-4 billion usd atm. When it's 300-400 billion usd everything is going to be controversial. Everything is going to be difficult.
It don't have a hope in hell of reaching that level unless the dead wood is cleared out and cast iron solutions are in place. Speculation can only take you so far. Beyond that you gotta prove you can deliver. Surely we saw that around $15 billion two years ago did NOT hold up for very long; however, it seems with all fo the building in the meantime (the past two years) that $30to$50 billion should be a fairly decent short term and realistic marker... thereafter $150 billion should be the next intermediary marker with $300 to $400 billion coming soon thereafter. Even though we could reach $300 Billion in some short term rush, it would likely NOT be very sustainable... within the next 5 years - however, beyond 5 years, that kind of $300 billion plus market cap should be fairly easily sustainable and beyond, no? Here would be something difficult to explain..... Let's say over the next 20 years Bitcoin never fluctuates more than 10% in a given year up or down but grows at a rate of 8% a year.... becoming the most predictable asset you can possibly buy. How would anyone ever explain it, maybe there is something inherently stable about Bitcoin and an asset like this that nobody has ever really contemplated before. Maybe it just took BTC stabilizing around 3 billion to discover this odd inexplicable stability.....  I am NOT sure if I am contradicting myself, but I really don't think so... surely anything is possible, but BTC would have to be quite a bit higher than $3 billion market cap in order to stabilize... I know that in my earlier post, I was kind of arguing against reaching a $300 to $400 billion market cap, but really that kind of market cap would be much more stable in terms of potentially finding some kind of steady growth in a kind of possible 8% territory that you suggest.... Really, your suggestion seems to be somewhat pie in the sky for such a new asset like bitcoin in which we have new adopters, awareness and speculation that cannot really be controlled and these kinds of matters become really difficult to control when the price starts going up, then it gets out of control because people begin to recognize at the same time that there is scarcity... In other words, it seems almost built into the design that it will remain very difficult to harness and contain growth spurts - unless there is going to evolve some kind of counterbalancing mechanism, such as various status quo institutions continuously attempting to manipulate BTC prices downward (and losing money), but causing BTC prices to be contained within some "acceptable" bounds - but even it seems that large institutions are going to likely have difficulties to contain when there remains a large amount of BTC dynamics that are decentralized and beyond individual players (and even governments) to keep under wraps, no? |
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Remember when there were taxi ads for that pesky "Internet" thingie in the 90s? Me neither. Notice that it is Bitmain doing the advertising. Anyways I'd rather see taxi cab ads as opposed to receiving those pesky AOL floppy disks and CDs in the mail.  Maybe we will will receive BTC wallets in the mail with .00001 BTC to get started? |
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That finex wall is epic. I'm observing.
5.6 k to 232, noice.Also 3day MACD turned green today. I predict either the most boring week-end ever, pricewise or a decent run up to 250.No way we're going down (for real). I thought that there was always a bit of downward pressure on the weekends, due to easiness to move BTC and then to test dumping BTC and if many think that there is a weekend dump pattern, then others may also attempt such dumping, in spite of such downward resistance technicals, no? |
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Bitcoin has a market cap of 3-4 billion usd atm. When it's 300-400 billion usd everything is going to be controversial. Everything is going to be difficult.
It don't have a hope in hell of reaching that level unless the dead wood is cleared out and cast iron solutions are in place. Speculation can only take you so far. Beyond that you gotta prove you can deliver. Surely we saw that around $15 billion two years ago did NOT hold up for very long; however, it seems with all fo the building in the meantime (the past two years) that $30to$50 billion should be a fairly decent short term and realistic marker... thereafter $150 billion should be the next intermediary marker with $300 to $400 billion coming soon thereafter. Even though we could reach $300 Billion in some short term rush, it would likely NOT be very sustainable... within the next 5 years - however, beyond 5 years, that kind of $300 billion plus market cap should be fairly easily sustainable and beyond, no? |
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months of sidewazzzzzzzzze
people always complained that BTC is too volatile and no serious user would adopt BTC because it is too volatile. now BTC is stable and people keep complaining Currently stable (and relatively stable for the past 9 months), doesn't really meant that BTC is going to continue to be stable.... and likely that lack of the stability is going to be in the upwards in price direction in the coming months.. but NO ONE (except perhaps some whales may have some better ideas and control over some these matters) knows when, exactly..... difficult to predict... |
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A lot of people have heard about biticoin by now and talk about it but few believe in it, that's what I observe.
What's your circle of people? I mean really? Maybe some of the people I know directly know about Bitcoin because I talk about Bitcoin quite a bit, but if I venture outside of my circle, people really don't know, and if you ask them about it, they really do NOT know much of anything. Maybe the word has gotten out in the last couple of years a bit more in the places of the world with decent internet connections etc; however, I would still venture that a large number of people really don't know much of anything about bitcoin.. even when they say that they do. Maybe in technological circles we may have 20% having had heard about it and maybe less than 10% have a decent grasp of bitcoin.. Now if you get into non-technological circles, then I would surmise that less than 10% have heard of it and less than 5% can really articulate anything about BTC. overall, we need to get real about this knowledge of bitcoin matter, because when we come down to it, there are likely less than 10 million people world-wide that have any BTC holdings now or ever in the history of BTC, and accordingly, that is less than .01% of the world's population.... there is a long way to go, baby when it comes to knowledge of bitcoin. |
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0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000  hahahaha what's the time frame on that? |
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Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit exactly. 2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k  My bet (why not be bullish, right?): We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere. This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000). By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario? I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame. I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull). So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%. Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000. Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0 + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500 Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187 So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now! Thank you for providing the a more specific response to substantiate your current position. |
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I don't there will be such a run up in the price of Bitcoin as it did in November of that year anytime soon. I would say the value of Bitcoin was inflated and was not an accurate representation of bitcoin's actual value. I think it will be three more years (2018) before bitcoin goes mainstream. New technology usually takes a long time for people to adopt to.
The future is usually priced into the asset before that future time comes... therefore, if you are expecting mainstream-ish by 2018, then the price would have to go up sometime before that to some extent.. At this point, i doubt it is very overvalued... especially given the extent of the volume increase over the past 6 weeks and the amount of difficulties to drive the price lower than $220 for any extended period of time ... during this past 6 week period. Anyhow, we will see over the coming weeks and months regarding the price direction, whether BTC prices start to go up or down out of the $220 to $290 range that has been with us for more than 9 months and if those prices are able to stay out of that $220 to $290 price range for any meaningful period of time. |
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heh 3 versions of the question
Sometimes there is more than one question because someone may be asking in time 1, time 2 and time 3, or the second part of the question may assume something to take place in time 1 that would affect the probabilities of the outcome at time 2, however, specifying time, amount and probability can all be contained within one version of a poll question, as long as it is NOT ambiguous on any of these areas. That way when the results come out, we know what we were attempting to answer rather than each of us attempting to interpret the various ambiguities contained within the poll question. |
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almost two years of decline; confidence is down; sentiment is loooow
what are you currently thinking about the possibility of another major run-up of btc prices ? are you losing your faith, or are you not worried at all ?
Isn't this poll a little vague regarding timing and the amount of the run up. So for example, does it mean November December 2015, and does it mean like a 10x increase? Also, the poll is missing whole categories of percentages... for example, the categories could be something more comprehensive, such as: Less than 2% 2 to 20% 20 to 45% 45 to 55% 55 to 80% 80 to 98% more than 98% |
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Explanation is that there are NOT trading fees, correct (or are the trading fees really low?) |
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Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit exactly. 2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k My bet (why not be bullish, right?): We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere. This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000). Yes, that does seem a bit bullish, and surely I would like that to be true, but I put the odds at less than 2% for some close variation of that scenario to play out. Oh, I surely would like to see it happen, and I think that it is a very plausible scenario.. but let's just say that I have my doubts (maybe I am being worn out and a bit jaded based on the past 22 months of downward BTC price pressures). By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario? greater than 50% chance, or are you just saying that the odds are somewhere greater than my less than 2% projection, for example? |
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Moon incoming How do we know the upward momentum is going to last beyond $10 or $20, which I would hardly call moon? |
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Too the blood moon!
 Maybe some of those blood moon prophecies were right after all. Something major is happening. Define: "major"  |
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Too the blood moon!
 That's disturbing, no, BMB? |
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Well, I'm worried about the effect the new Circle stance on bitcoin will be...It's harder to buy BTC with USD now, but why would Circle do that to us???
Harder? How's it harder? The policy changes have created differences regarding methods of buying/selling and changes in limits in some categories but overall have not made buying or selling BTC "harder" The limits they put on purchasing bitcoin make it harder to get enough coin to do anything substantial. Many are relocating their coin just for that reason. It seems that some of "the powers that be" are pushing BTC into the direction of regulation and centralization via third party manipulation.... Correct? After reading various comments about the changes at Circle, I made a couple of posts on the topic of Circle's changes. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg12514803#msg12514803In essence, a lot of the posts about Circle seems to be substantively FUD-ish. Surely, every exchange (or bitcoin company connected to a bank) has various policies and differentiations that are attempts to comply with some of the regulations while at the same time attempting to compete to obtain users. At first, when I did NOT understand the extent of some of Circle's changes, I became upset because I was NO longer getting instant availability, and then after reading some of the apparent FUD, I got more worked up... but then after, I in fact looked into the matter, I saw that my buy and sell amounts were increased from $2500 per week to $3000 per week, and actually, I could get all of my bitcoins instantaneously and for free, as long as I used a debit account, rather than a bank transfer. Instead of griping about the supposed big brother connections of Circle, one should figure out ways to strategically employ its tools to advantage, and surely, if there are better terms in other places (including more privacy or fewer fees or higher limits, then surely, a person may want to employ those tools (if they can be found). Circle is attempting to become a big player in the Bitcoin space; however, it seems that they have a ways to go in order to attempt to catch up to Coinbase. I use both;however, I understand as well that some people do NOT want to have accounts with any of these kinds of entities that seem to be find various ways to be compliant with various US regulations, including various KYC and AML laws. Actually, these days, there seems to be a lot of options, but yes, some of the bigger players that are complying with various regulations also bring some sense of security that they are NOT going to run off with your BTC.... and surely some people believe that the costs of having accounts with some of the big regulated payers is greater than the benefits...and they can chose to put their BTC in other places or buy and sell their BTC in other locations. There do remain options, as you mentioned. Very well said. I understand the regulatory complications involved in working with US banks (been playing poker professionally online since it became available so I've seen some very creative third party processes); however, what worries me is that there seems to be quite a bit of market manipulation by a handful of players which seems to be an antithesis to the whole bitcoin project. It is a wonder that bitcoin is even allowed to be purchased with USD which makes me very suspicious of what's being negotiated behind closed doors. Actually, I retain a similar level of scepticism regarding motives for acceptance and even the degree to which regular joe blow investors are sufficiently informed about material facts in order to make informed investments. Yes, the more and more Governments and financial institutions are "on-board" or even quasi-on-board, we are going to get behind the scene bad motives, but we are also going to have some legitimate semi-anarchical sentiments mixed therein. prior to the 2013 bubble, there was likely quite a bit less government involvement in BTC; however, there are outstanding suspicions that even by 2011, some of MTGox's fiasco's were in part or wholely driven by US Govt manipulations. In that regard, we may invest into BTC and believe that prices are being driven by certain kinds of decentralization ideology forces, but in the end find out that something else was going on behind the scenes. Similar matters is true regarding the control of the mining or control of various less regulated exchanges and some kinds of bad motives can end up delivering considerable negative repercussions on the security, legitimacy, solvency and/or confidences in BTC (or the blockchain). Many of us attempt to stay attuned to happenings in the bitcoin space through this forum and other similar information sources, yet ultimately, we probably need to exercise some faith when we are trying to decide what to do based on the information in our hands, and hope that we are NOT being materially mislead in some regards. In essence, I still conclude that Circle and its various actors are NOT as mal-aligned or maliciously aligned as your earlier post and some of the other recent Circle bashing posts have made them out to be. |
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Well, I'm worried about the effect the new Circle stance on bitcoin will be...It's harder to buy BTC with USD now, but why would Circle do that to us???
Harder? How's it harder? The policy changes have created differences regarding methods of buying/selling and changes in limits in some categories but overall have not made buying or selling BTC "harder" The limits they put on purchasing bitcoin make it harder to get enough coin to do anything substantial. Many are relocating their coin just for that reason. It seems that some of "the powers that be" are pushing BTC into the direction of regulation and centralization via third party manipulation.... Correct? After reading various comments about the changes at Circle, I made a couple of posts on the topic of Circle's changes. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg12514803#msg12514803In essence, a lot of the posts about Circle seems to be substantively FUD-ish. Surely, every exchange (or bitcoin company connected to a bank) has various policies and differentiations that are attempts to comply with some of the regulations while at the same time attempting to compete to obtain users. At first, when I did NOT understand the extent of some of Circle's changes, I became upset because I was NO longer getting instant availability, and then after reading some of the apparent FUD, I got more worked up... but then after, I in fact looked into the matter, I saw that my buy and sell amounts were increased from $2500 per week to $3000 per week, and actually, I could get all of my bitcoins instantaneously and for free, as long as I used a debit account, rather than a bank transfer. Instead of griping about the supposed big brother connections of Circle, one should figure out ways to strategically employ its tools to advantage, and surely, if there are better terms in other places (including more privacy or fewer fees or higher limits, then surely, a person may want to employ those tools (if they can be found). Circle is attempting to become a big player in the Bitcoin space; however, it seems that they have a ways to go in order to attempt to catch up to Coinbase. I use both;however, I understand as well that some people do NOT want to have accounts with any of these kinds of entities that seem to be find various ways to be compliant with various US regulations, including various KYC and AML laws. Actually, these days, there seems to be a lot of options, but yes, some of the bigger players that are complying with various regulations also bring some sense of security that they are NOT going to run off with your BTC.... and surely some people believe that the costs of having accounts with some of the big regulated payers is greater than the benefits...and they can chose to put their BTC in other places or buy and sell their BTC in other locations. There do remain options, as you mentioned. |
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Well, I'm worried about the effect the new Circle stance on bitcoin will be...It's harder to buy BTC with USD now, but why would Circle do that to us???
Harder? How's it harder? The policy changes have created differences regarding methods of buying/selling and changes in limits in some categories but overall have not made buying or selling BTC "harder" |
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