Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

If the people havent profit... forum havent people

haha. so true and well-said.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[saturn643]

OKCoin pumping up the volume. Now lets put that volume to good use and pump up the price.

[JayJuanGee]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

Yes, that does seem a bit bullish, and surely I would like that to be true, but I put the odds at less than 2% for some close variation of that scenario to play out.  Oh, I surely would like to see it happen, and I think that it is a very plausible scenario.. but let's just say that I have my doubts (maybe I am being worn out and a bit jaded based on the past 22 months of downward BTC price pressures).


By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  greater than 50% chance, or are you just saying that the odds are somewhere greater than my less than 2% projection, for example?

[JayJuanGee]

  CHINA

Explanation is that there are NOT trading fees, correct (or are the trading fees really low?)

[Fatman3001]

  CHINA

Explanation is that there are NOT trading fees, correct (or are the trading fees really low?)

With no trading fees you have lots of bots trying to squeeze out a couple of satoshis extra on every trade.

It's BotWars



But i would love to know how many actual Bitcoins are on Chinese hands and how many are involved to create these trading volumes.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[600watt]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

Yes, that does seem a bit bullish, and surely I would like that to be true, but I put the odds at less than 2% for some close variation of that scenario to play out.  Oh, I surely would like to see it happen, and I think that it is a very plausible scenario.. but let's just say that I have my doubts (maybe I am being worn out and a bit jaded based on the past 22 months of downward BTC price pressures).


By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  greater than 50% chance, or are you just saying that the odds are somewhere greater than my less than 2% projection, for example?

created a quick poll about that: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1195626.0

[rebuilder]

But i would love to know how many actual Bitcoins are on Chinese hands and how many are involved to create these trading volumes.

Are there lists of known addresses controlled by any of the Chinese exchanges? Knowing how many coins they hold should help.

[tommorisonwebdesign]

I don't there will be such a run up in the price of Bitcoin as it did in November of that year anytime soon. I would say the value of Bitcoin was inflated and was not an accurate representation of bitcoin's actual value. I think it will be three more years (2018) before bitcoin goes mainstream. New technology usually takes a long time for people to adopt to.

[gentlemand]

CIRCLE IS DISTANCING THEMSELVES FROM BITCOIN
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/circle-distancing-bitcoin/

soo Circle's new Business model: "You can enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin without ever holding or buying bitcoin yourself"

Its a marketing move and it isnt good for holders

Not really a surprise surely? They're in the business of making money, not fulfilling utopian dreams. They've kinda hinted at this type of stance since minute one.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't there will be such a run up in the price of Bitcoin as it did in November of that year anytime soon. I would say the value of Bitcoin was inflated and was not an accurate representation of bitcoin's actual value. I think it will be three more years (2018) before bitcoin goes mainstream. New technology usually takes a long time for people to adopt to.

The future is usually priced into the asset before that future time comes... therefore, if you are expecting mainstream-ish by 2018, then the price would have to go up sometime before that to some extent..

At this point, i doubt it is very overvalued... especially given the extent of the volume increase over the past 6 weeks and the amount of difficulties to drive the price lower than $220 for any extended period of time ... during this past 6 week period.

Anyhow, we will see over the coming weeks and months regarding the price direction, whether BTC prices start to go up or down out of the $220 to $290 range that has been with us for more than 9 months and if those prices are able to stay out of that $220 to $290 price range for any meaningful period of time.

[Peter R]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

[chriswilmer]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

Didn't know we were still using this forum

I've been musing lately over what the value (at time = infinity) of a bitcoin would be if the 1 MB cap remained (and assuming, implausibly, that no other cryptocurrency took over). It would still be pretty high I think. I've seen a lot of calculations of how many domestic wire transfers there are per second, but has anyone estimated the number of physical gold transfers per second? Probably less than 1/sec I would think...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Fakhoury]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

[adamstgBit]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

[Peter R]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

[Wekkel]

I think the next two months will be favourable to the price. Weekly Stochastics @BitcoinWisdom has turned up from the bottom.

[Fakhoury]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

I'm like you, I don't think Bitcoin will die, on the contrary, it will go mainstream in 3-5 years (perma-bull).

But I see a lot of people talking about $50-$100 within 10-12 years, what you think ?