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Stamp trying to fight back? Hmm...
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With this whole fiasco all I want to know is why billyjoeallen isn't still shouting he called the bubble bottom correctly?
He he! I think it was called rather loudly on many occasions. Not always wise to call a price as the bottom / top. Some might say foolhardier still to boast you called it right. 48 hours is a long time in Bitcoin |
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only the news page is down
Not for me - but I just can't see a fix being ready today - or even next week. Andreas said 'four weeks' in his opinion - who knows...? |
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A lot of people hovering on the refresh - waiting to get out if the door opens a smidgeon....?
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Fiatleak is as quiet as I have ever seen it - tumble weed time....
Mighty quiet.
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Actually - allowing limited withdrawals makes sense - they must fear a 'run' on BTC either crashing the exchange (with it's new software fix being untested, too) - or meaning they have so little liquidity that their business is finished.
Allowing 'some' withdrawals will mean people wish to hold BTC instead of Fiat, which will inflate the price on Gox, and at this point, some people might decide to stay.
If Gox is clever, it will still have a business left. Don't get me wrong - I will be the first in the queue to get out, but it is a logical solution.
I did think this was their only logical way out (assuming they really do intend to stay in the game).
The thing is, it is not Gox's money to control. It belongs to the people whose accounts it is credited to. To maintain confidence, Gox should be doing everything they can to allow people to access their money. They're not. Richy - I still have coins in there - I was just trying to look at it dispassionately. We are where we are. I hate what Gox had and has wasted, it rankles, of course - but I want the damage to stop, so I am hoping they do something measured and sensible so they can get out of the hole they have dug for themselves. |
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From what I have read, Mark is holding at least 40,000 BTC that do not belong to him, whose owners have been trying to withdraw for months.
no, those bitcoins in failed tx were stolen with the bug of send new mined coins, tx fail and modified mutant transaction with diff tx id gets relayed by hacker and then gox credited back the btc. rinse, repeat. But that should not be the case of people who are publicly demanding their coins and/or dollars, right? Like Rick Falkvinge, or those people who went to protest in front of MtGOX's offices. When Rick requested a BTC withdrawal, the transaction issued by MtGOX must have pointed to his external wallet, and the hack would not change that; all that the hacker could do is trick MtGOX into crediting back the BTC to Rick's account, in spite of the transfer haviing occurred. But Rick and all those other clients apparently did not get his BTC. So what happened in those cases? (And note that, AFAIK, Rick is still a fan of bitcoin, in spite of his problem with MtGOX.) EDIT: typos All transactions still in limbo were re-credited to the relevant Gox accounts. So they are still there AFAIK. My last one is! |
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You may counter with 'people will then deposit BTC in to Gox to arb the premium' but let's see....
Thats not going to happen is it. You cant get goxbuxx out. Gox has been $200-300 above stamp at times in the last few months and thats because an arb that way doesn't work if you cant get your fiat. That is what I meant. I was saying 'you may say' meaning that would be the counter-argument to my postulation. I agree with you - I think people will not want Goxbux and so any exodus of Coins will immediately produce a spike in prices (in Goxbux) of BTC on MtGox. If people won't pay it, the market may correct this, or the exchange may experience a lack of trading. But I think Gox is assuming this too - hence proposing they open with limited withdrawals in terms of frequency and number of BTC. |
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Actually - allowing limited withdrawals makes sense - they must fear a 'run' on BTC either crashing the exchange (with it's new software fix being untested, too) - or meaning they have so little liquidity that their business is finished.
Allowing 'some' withdrawals will mean people wish to hold BTC instead of Fiat, which will inflate the price on Gox, and at this point, some people might decide to stay.
If Gox is clever, it will still have a business left. Don't get me wrong - I will be the first in the queue to get out, but it is a logical solution.
I did think this was their only logical way out (assuming they really do intend to stay in the game).
If you look above I made a point about a bank run crashing the sofware. How does limiting withdrawal amounts cause the software not to crash? Surely you should be limiting withdrawal requests. Yes, but if they limit it to xx BTC per day and one tx per day, and (then maybe say) have a time delay for 'verification' - it will reduce both the crash risk and the risk of a depletion of all liquidity on the 'exchange'. Im not understanding your thinking. Liquidity on the exchange would be fiat. People aren't looking to sell for goxbuxxx so why would there be a reduction of liquidity on the exchange. You cant get goxxbuxx out the only way to leave is with btc. The exchange is actually very liquid if you really want to sell your btc and not buy it back. Ive been up all night so excuse me if Im completley missing something. No - you have a fair point - it would mean a higher price on Gox for BTC all over again with a possibly prohibitive premium on buying that would freeze it up, which could then be a liquidity problem. You may counter with 'people will then deposit BTC in to Gox to arb the premium' but let's see.... |
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If there is no new good news this weekend, we will possibly drift to a low that is loosely around 600 before heading back up.
s I go to sleep, wake up, coffee, breakfast etc. Come here and people are saying the same things over and over and over. so maybe I should just repeat myself ad nauseum also. Ok. I called the weekend chart like I had a time machine. So now your self-congratulatory messages are 'ironic'?! Cool...  |
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Actually - allowing limited withdrawals makes sense - they must fear a 'run' on BTC either crashing the exchange (with it's new software fix being untested, too) - or meaning they have so little liquidity that their business is finished.
Allowing 'some' withdrawals will mean people wish to hold BTC instead of Fiat, which will inflate the price on Gox, and at this point, some people might decide to stay.
If Gox is clever, it will still have a business left. Don't get me wrong - I will be the first in the queue to get out, but it is a logical solution.
I did think this was their only logical way out (assuming they really do intend to stay in the game).
If you look above I made a point about a bank run crashing the sofware. How does limiting withdrawal amounts cause the software not to crash? Surely you should be limiting withdrawal requests. Yes, but if they limit it to xx BTC per day and one tx per day, and (then maybe say) have a time delay for 'verification' - it will reduce both the crash risk and the risk of a depletion of all liquidity on the 'exchange'. |
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not to defend gox's retarded writing, but they are implementing new protocol and it might be good to be safe. they also haven't said what that would be. <<kinda bullshit the real reason though is probably because they are hoping that the gox price will rise fast enough to cancel any arbitrage opportunity, and while people will still probably leave because goxsux, they at least wouldn't lose all their biz instantly. Also the gox price will once again rise above everybody else's.....some fish will decide to stay. [/quote] Sorry - you beat me to it, but agree this strategy is the only option that makes sense - so (assuming they do open soon) it is their only option, which is reassuring in some ways. |
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Actually - allowing limited withdrawals makes sense - they must fear a 'run' on BTC either crashing the exchange (with it's new software fix being untested, too) - or meaning they have so little liquidity that their business is finished.
Allowing 'some' withdrawals will mean people wish to hold BTC instead of Fiat, which will inflate the price on Gox, and at this point, some people might decide to stay.
If Gox is clever, it will still have a business left. Don't get me wrong - I will be the first in the queue to get out, but it is a logical solution.
I did think this was their only logical way out (assuming they really do intend to stay in the game).
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This week has demonstrated how one man, who owns a badly run exchange but has a good PR team, can do massive damage to BTC.
Massive damage? I know this is spec forum, but the price remains one of the least important things. It is undeniable, bitcoin is the future. My point, if you read back 6 or 8 pages (which I wouldn't inflict on you), is that BTC has lousy PR, while Gox is pretty canny at spinning news in their favour. The story should've been Gox's incompetency but instead it became a flaw with BTC. BTC may be the future but the infrastructure needs improving, fixing etc. And the lessons from this week are the Bitcoin Foundation needs to improve its marketing and PR and deal with criticism head on, swiftly and aggressively. MK is on the board of the Bitcoin Foundation - hence the inability of the Foundation to do a proper job. If I had a cartoon of an Ostrich with its head in the sand I would pop it in here. Like this:  Yep, but with 'Bitcoin Foundation' written on its Mark Karpeles. |
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This week has demonstrated how one man, who owns a badly run exchange but has a good PR team, can do massive damage to BTC.
Massive damage? I know this is spec forum, but the price remains one of the least important things. It is undeniable, bitcoin is the future. My point, if you read back 6 or 8 pages (which I wouldn't inflict on you), is that BTC has lousy PR, while Gox is pretty canny at spinning news in their favour. The story should've been Gox's incompetency but instead it became a flaw with BTC. BTC may be the future but the infrastructure needs improving, fixing etc. And the lessons from this week are the Bitcoin Foundation needs to improve its marketing and PR and deal with criticism head on, swiftly and aggressively. MK is on the board of the Bitcoin Foundation - hence the inability of the Foundation to do a proper job. If I had a cartoon of an Ostrich with its head in the sand I would pop it in here. |
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It appears that even though MtGox and Bitstamp have nearly decoupled, they are still very weakly correlated in directional bias.
I think it's quite obvious that MtGox is the main price driver at this point. The other exchanges may have decoupled but the state of MtGox and the question whether it will survive and withdrawals will be restored is still very important for the price at this moment. A higher Gox price will be associated with a higher chance of good news coming out of MtGox and this will cause other exchanges to rise as well with it. What I have been pondering is whether this directional bias will also be the case if they reinstate withdrawals, or whether the surplus of BTC would drag down the other exchanges. I don't think this can be found out any other way than empirically, so I'm going to be watching very closely, because this will likely decide whether or not we have a longer term bear market. So far, Bitstamp looks strong to me. There will be an increase on supply at other exchanges, but if BTC can get out, then it means the 'crisis' is over, which will mean a corresponding bounce in sentiment. This could mean by the time coins hit other exchanges, the price is rising (even on Gox it will rise) so - you are right, it will be interesting to watch. I think it must be bullish for price, but more coins at Stamp will increase supply there, and may feed whichever direction the market feels like going. I think a rise if Gox is 'sorted' will be the winner, but it is not a given if doubt remains about it, even after it 'opens the doors'. The main thing is - I don't think it CAN open the doors so easily in the immediate future, as the risk of capital flight is very high. |
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To sleep or not to sleep?  When is Gox coming out with news? I'm willing to bet that today is not the day for a press release. I'm guessing that they will say something. It won't be very informative, but it will be something. I doubt there is anything worth waiting up for coming from Gox, somehow. Deadlines have never meant much there, let's face it. |
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If Gox goes up now would it not only be because they are prepping to withdrawl coins and sell anywhere else? Everybody else better be prepping some dollars to exploit this non-Gox dump coming up here soon.
The uptick is indicative of new fiat hitting Gox on Monday morning. I just sent $3,000 not 15 minutes ago and it is now sitting in my account.  Fortune favours the brave... Good luck! Stupidity is often mistaken for bravery. I've been following this Gox drama closely for the last few months... I think the odds are on my side. I am afraid I wished you good luck as I really don't think the odds are on your side, but you are making a fantastically contrarian move. I wouldn't do it, but I am in awe that someone has put cash IN right now! |
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If Gox goes up now would it not only be because they are prepping to withdrawl coins and sell anywhere else? Everybody else better be prepping some dollars to exploit this non-Gox dump coming up here soon.
The uptick is indicative of new fiat hitting Gox on Monday morning. I just sent $3,000 not 15 minutes ago and it is now sitting in my account. Fortune favours the brave... Good luck! |
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Meanwhile at Mtgox:  Ahh...'Seppuku'... it's the Japanese Starbucks big death-by-chocolate drink. |
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