Part of the criticism of OP throughout this thread has been that the data is more about minimum wage data provided the various countries, so the data is already inconsistent, but it also may well be skewed to the lowside.

So maybe your suggestion about average income in each country would be a way better way of attempting to be realistic - even though surely by attempting to focus on something like the lowest earners in any country (which probably is partly what minimum wage is supposed to reflect) there probably was some attempt to figure out how difficult it might be for the lowest wage earners in any country (and even around the world) to be able to even accumulate 1BTC..

or even lower amounts than 1 BTC since many of us realize that 1 BTC is likely a relatively high target anyhow in terms of normies being able to accumulate that amount of BTC. .but it has always been the case that the reasonable target levels have been going down further and further in terms of how many BTC any normal normie might reasonably expect to be able to accumulate without overdoing it... and recking himself....

Probably the ship for normies to reasonably and easily be able to accumulate 1BTC sailed in late 2020--- but surely it is a sliding scale, and like you suggested goldkingcoiner with persistence and perhaps various kinds of resourcefulness and creativity, there could still be various ways that normies and/or low income people might still be able to accumulate 1 BTC.. even though many of us likely expect (as has already been repeated several times in this thread) that with the passage of time, such feat of accumulating 1 whole BTC is likely going to be relegated to the richest of the society... especially if we are talking about measuring on the individual level....

And in regards to your example of pooling resources in order to be able to accumulate BTC, I suppose that merely goes to various ways that groups of people might figure out how to be innovative in their BTC accumulation efforts and hopefully not ending up experiencing too many rug pulls within such group-oriented processes - and such rug pulling events are not likely to stop, which sometimes does end up resulting in some folks being able to accumulate larger quantities of BTC for their own personal stash than they would have had otherwise been able to accomplish.. and some folks respect those people who get rich, whether by hook or by crook.. once they got the money  (BTC in this case) they may well be able to put on airs of being a respectable citizen of the community, with his/her 1 BTC while the rest of the community might have peanuts (I mean don't we call those satoshis?... get them while you can. and get as many as you can, without overdoing it, while you can.)

Did you actually read the thread?

How about other related threads?

As far as I can see this thread is active, even though OP is from 2016 and surely Lauda has not been around the forum for a few years.. but still maybe you should describe which aspects of OP or other parts of the thread that you want to know about?  Yes, maybe you do not need to read the whole thread.. but still.

How about describing efforts that you made to research into the topic, and also providing some details regarding how much experience you have in regards to buying BTC and the various ways that you might store it - including some ideas regarding how much you might want to store in various places (of course, you should not be giving up information regarding your own BTC holdings, but just to give some ideas regarding your own situation)... and maybe some guys might want to delve into such vague and incomplete scenarios, even though you seemed to have had done little to no actual work - which appears that you might not be a serious poster.. or at least not someone that anyone here should take seriously.. or maybe I am already treating you too seriously by actually responding.

The devil is still in the details Wind_FURY.... because each of us likely have time-based considerations, but also just buying on the dip in itself is a price-based consideration. 

So, even though it does not hurt to throw out those ideas, each of us are likely attempting to weigh both types of considerations and to employ those into our overall approach to BTC whether it is in regards to the way that we accumulate BTC or in regards to the extent that we might consider various points that we might sell.. and sometimes we are going to have to consider both time and price at the same time, because if the BTC price shot up to $1 million within this calendar year, it might cause some folks to take some value off the table because the BTC price seems to be unsustainable to be shooting up so rapidly, but if the BTC price slowly goes up for the next 4-10 years and maybe it reaches $1 million in that time frame, and maybe it does not, but the mere passage of time, could well contribute to changes in our own personal ways of thinking about how we might want to manage our BTC portfolio, even if the BTC price reaches the same amount of $1 million, and we are not being irrational or panicking merely because we change our strategy based on the differences in the timeline that ends up playing out in those two different scenarios that I suggested that either of which could end up happening...

I don't know if we need "cryptocurrency" payment systems, but if you are referring to bitcoin, then perhaps?  There are always ongoing developments in bitcoin, and surely there can be questions regarding how user-friendly some of the systems happen to be, while at the same time, there are some battles that seem to ongoingly be taking place, and so sometimes normies might be reluctant to attempt to integrate some of the systems that might interact with legacy systems because of a lot of variance in terms of regulatory matters..  A vast majority of countries are likely not even close to as open as El Salvador in terms of trying to keep regulatory obstacles to a minimum, and so there can be other solutions that allow for bitcoin transactions to happen without necessarily interacting with legacy systems, and maybe that might be where crypto could come into the scene.. but I hate to imply that shitcoins are even needed when bitcoin has systems that are being built and tested in lightning systems, but surely there may well be experiments that are needed when it comes to both user-friendliness and achieving higher levels of adoptions that might relate to wider sections of the population getting tempted to use various bitcoin systems.. beyond merely storing value in it.. and even storing value is not a bad thing.. but I get your point in regards to usage potentially helping bring awareness and potentially getting more normies involved in bitcoin and incentivized to learn more about it.


You may or may not be able to buy BTC back for a price that is less than the amount that you sold, including at around $100k, so any calculation that you make in regards to whether and/or how much you sell should include considerations that you may or may not be able to buy back the amount that you sold, especially for cheaper than the price that you sold them at.


I do not disagree with any of the thrust of what you are saying sokani, yet there can be ways to attempt to do all of the things that you discuss including having a regular DCA and then having various amounts of cash that is in reserves in case the BTC price happens to drop and to have buy orders at various price locations on the way down (or to watch and to conduct those buy orders manually).  Accordingly currently the 200-week moving average is currently at $27,098, and so the extent to which we might get BTC prices below the 200-week moving average beyond spikes do not seem to be high probability events, yet of course, there are a variety of scenarios that could end up playing out that are not easy to calculate in advance, so in several senses, it remains a decently prudent and practical strategy to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios while realizing that whenever we attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, we are going to end up somewhat diluting our BTC investment.. and so we have to attempt to plan and to employ a strategy that is sufficiently balanced for ourselves in such ways that we ar not going to be disappointed with our attempts to do the best that we can with the resources that we happen to have.  

For sure, in this here thread it is acceptable to talk about a variety of investments besides bitcoin, so my main beef with the use of the term "crypto" in this particular thread is that it is not specific enough, and there is a need to use such word in appropriate context that is NOT ambiguous - especially the way that Cryptomultiplier had used the term by saying that it is a good idea to "invest in crypto."  What does that mean?  It is best to either say what you mean at the time that you say it, or at least if we might know the general context of what you might be referring to bitcoin and other kinds of crypto and sometimes it might not matter so much about what those other crypto are, but if we are making suggestions to invest, it is better to specify what it is that you mean.



Merely because everyone speaks that way does not mean that it is a good idea to repeat such sloppy language.

Yes, we hear really smart and rich people talking that way too.. and when they do that it likely either means that they do not know hardly shit about bitcoin, or they are purposefully trying to be misleading, or they made an innocent mistake.. however, it is not very likely that they made any kind of innocent mistake and if they are speaking about "crypto" as if they know what the fuck they are talking about, then they better learn at least enough about what they are talking about, including bitcoin in order to know how to use such terms so that they are not being misleading or vague or ambiguous. .which is a very sloppy and frequently disingenuine kind of habit, especially when it comes to this particular topic.

And, yeah, I know people speak sloppily about a lot of topics, but if they do it with bitcoin, there are going to be some of us, including but not limited to yours truly who is going to request, suggest or even demand (depending on context) that they specify what it is that they are talking about.  People in the media need to also request that their guests and their cohosts specify what they are talking about if they use the term crypto in a vague context.


I am glad that you are learning and attempting to employ a better kind of practice in the way that you talk about bitcoin versus shitcoins versus crypto, and surely sometimes it is o.k. to use the term crypto - especially if you have already defined what you mean by it.. or maybe you are just talking about various shitcoins in a vague way.. and sometimes if you use the term "crypto" and if you are referring to some dynamic that includes bitcoin, then you can say that you are referring generally to the industry that includes bitcoin and a variety of shitcoins and various projects in the space.. and sure sometimes the details might not necessarily be necessary to flesh out...

Let's say, for example, you heard that there had been various kinds of "crypto legislation" that had been discussed and passed, but you might not know the details of what that legislation is, so if you are describing what you mean, including your not knowing very much about it, then it still might be relevant and even helpful in regards to some other conversation that you are having, and it might even serve as a kind of suggestion that you need to learn more about that particular topic, whether you just read some third party sources or maybe you find out from news source or friend that you trust for a kind of overview in order to better formulate your opinion, and surely many people do not have time to duly investigate everything that they hear about before they even form an opinion,

....but each of us should be careful in terms of not communicating as if we know more than we do or to communicate in vague and misleading ways when it comes to something like the recommendation of investment choices.. even if we on our own might already be employing bad and sloppy investment practices... which there are quite a few people who choose their coins or their investments based on very superficial criteria, and sure they can suggest that others do the same as them, but they should try to disclose aspects of their strategy,  especially if they are recommending others to do the same.


It is a bit strange that you are saying to never ask for investment advice or references on the internet, but you are giving investment advice to DCA into bitcoin.

I think that the point is that each of us have to come to our own conclusions regarding whether to invest, what to invest into and what might be our strategies towards accumulation - including figuring out some targets and goals that we might have within various realistic and reasonable timelines as well as attempting to figure out our own particulars enough in order to be attempting to tailor our approach to ourselves, rather than merely what someone else is saying on the internet that might either be tailored to their own situation or that it might have  either biases contained therein or a lot of incomplete (or even withheld) information regarding what's being invested into.

I do agree with your overall idea that there are some badly motivated folks who try to get normies into pump and dump products, so sometimes there could be feelings (and appearances) of actually profiting, until the rug pull comes, and many times the talking points (and even charisma of the person) can be very persuasive, while at the same time it is misleading.. and so in that sense each of us is responsible for our own approach, including being careful in terms of our own potential vulnerabilities and weaknesses to get drawn into inferior products and inferior investment approaches... so of course, I agree with DCA'ing into BTC.. but still normies have to figure out various other details regarding how to do it in a way that works for them, even including ideas about where to source their buys, how to save on fees (if that might be a concern) and how much exposure that they might have to third parties before they withdraw their coins to their own storage - and surely some people might not even take their coins into their own storage because they might not even feel confident or competent enough in order to do that without screwing it up... so it might not be bad to keep some coins with 3rd parties up to a certain point, and not even all third parties are the same. ... and for some people $1k to $10k is a real lot of money, but for other people, they might not consider moving their value off of exchanges (and third parties until it is much higher amounts, because they feel that they are not putting much of their overall BTC investment at risk since they might already have a lot of wealth in other places.. including that they might also hold some BTC privately too.. so they might not get concerned about having large amounts on exchanges that would be life-changing for poorer people).  


I agree that acting is better than doing nothing - but I question the extent to which any of us needs to necessarily invest in a business or to create work for ourselves for the mere sake of it.

Of course, when we are younger, we likely need to build a variety of skills, and so there can be a lot of advantages in that whether we put up our own shingle (in our own business) or if we work for other people, and it is not necessarily a bad idea to work for other people because not everyone is capable of running their own business or even getting into partnerships that might end up being bad ideas.


I like that you give an example, but I question how you might employ the strategy that you are suggesting without fucking things up too much.  Maybe you are leaving out some facts too?  Because a person who already has bitcoin is way better prepared to be able to wait for a dip as compared with someone who does not have any bitcoin...

And if you are expecting $25k, but the price goes all the way down to $22k, then the BTC price has to go through $25k before it gets to $22k, so why would you have had waited or have much money left when the price passes through $25k, wouldn't you just buy at that point?  

In fact, I find it pretty damned problematic to lump sum at those various points and to even figure out a plan that really works, and if you already have $20k in bitcoin, but you have $8k sitting on the side.. while at the same time you have $200 per week coming in.. why would you be holding onto so much cash? and just letting it accumulate when the BTC price may or may not end up going down to $25k or even $22k for that matter?   $8k is 40% the size of your BTC stash, and if you have $200 coming in every  week that you are not DCA'ing with.. which seems quite dangerous for someone with that little already in BTC to be fucking around waiting for a BTC price dip that may or may not end up happening.  And, if you have less than $20k, then the percentage amount of cash is even higher..  

Now if you were to have $80k already invested in BTC or even $120k, then it might be more reasonable to wait for those kinds of dips because $8k would be only 10% or 6.67% respectively of your BTC amount, so you might have more luxury in terms of feeling that you are able to wait for those kinds of dips because you already have enough to be prepared for up.

Recently, I had already mentioned (in this thread or another one) that my current cash is ONLY about 2.5% of my total BTC holdings, and I am not fucking around waiting for the BTC price to drop before I buy, but for the most part, I do not DCA anymore... but I have buy orders that go every $500 all the way down to $10k-ish..and in some sense, I don't really expect any of those buy orders to be executed, especially below $22k, and so at some point that cash will likely end up getting spent by me rather than to be used to buy BTC.. but at this time, that cash is there and it is just waiting for the BTC price to drop, and I hope that the BTC price does not drop because I do not really want my BTC buy orders to be filled, but if the BTC price does go down, then those orders end up getting filled.

I think that with any of the scenarios that I outlined of someone who has those kinds of levels of cash, and they are expecting to put it into BTC, then don't be fucking around with waiting for dips that might not happen.  Put 1/3 in right away.. let's call it $3k, DCA with the next $3k over the next several months (which would be $230 per week if divided over the next 13 weeks or $115 per week over the next 26 weeks).... plus you said that the person already has $200 per week coming in.. so I question whether to let all of that build up.. maybe invest 1/2 or 1/3 of that each week rather than waiting)..

Now if the amount that is already invested into BTC is $160k or more (which would cause $8k to be 5% of the size), then maybe there could be some rationale to hold off more of the DCA and to set various buy on dip orders, but still I question whether trying to lump sum at $25k or even at $22k would be even close to reasonable, even though having various incremental BTC buy orders down to those amounts and below those amounts does not hurt, and maybe part of the problem that you came into with your hypothetical, Dr.Bitcoin_Strange, is that you had already said that the person wants to invest in bitcoin with their $8k and with their $200 coming in each week... so my assessment is that they better already have a decent amount of BTC before they start to get too aggressive in terms of their waiting for dips that may or may not happen.

Think about it.  The 200-week moving average is currently at $27,098, so the odds of even going below the 200-week moving average might not even be that great, maybe greater than 50%, but you should not be treating 50% or even 60% or 70% odds (if we might be that confident) as if they were going to happen when there are still decently high odds that they won't happen and your strategy should be apportioned in accordance with the odds rather than outside of the odds, including for sure accounting for how many BTC that you already have (meaning how prepared you already are for UP).


You do not need to get into details about your own particular circumstances in order to talk about various ideas.  You can use hypotheticals or you can use percentages and you could even say that you are talking about a friend.. or if you say that you are talking about your own situation, you might just make up some numbers.. None of that would be unfair in order to obscure or convolute OpSec considerations.  Mistakes also happen, and sometimes net assets or networth might not always go up, and some mistakes are perhaps more detrimental than others, and so sometimes if networth might be going up or down due to practices but there sometimes are market forces going on that make it difficult to either figure out how to preserve and/or build networth when the value of a lot of investments might be going down in real terms.. so sometimes it might appear that some of the investments are going up in value, but if they are measured in dollars, it might be misleading in regards to whether they are going up enough in order to keep up with inflation (and we do not always want to rely upon official inflation numbers in terms of assessing the extent to which some of our investments might or might not be keeping up with inflation).


People with a lot of money might not give too many shits about whether their house is as good of an investment as a business.  Of course, poor people might have to rely upon loans to be able to buy a house because they might not otherwise ever be able to save up enough on their own in order to be able to enjoy the house.

I believe that I have adequately described what I meant.. which is largely the idea that the BTC price passes through prices around the old ATH with very little resistance.. and sure there can be resistance, but there is a tendency for there not to be resistance.  You can look at the ATH of $32 from 2011, the ATHs of $263 and $1,163 of 2013, the ATH of $19,666 from 2017, and so now the new ATH is $69k... and let's see what happens?  You want to fuck around with selling too much bitcoin between $55k and $85k, then good luck with that because those prices are likely pass through zones, and also no guarantees, so you can do what you like in terms of managing any BTC sales that you might make and if you expect to be able to have any potential of buying them back, especially if you sell within the deadman's zone.

Are you feeling lucky, punk?

Careful when you suggest that having some kind of a bullshit portfolio that has an amorphous allocation into something called crypto is going to give you very much ability to sleep soundly.

The ONLY one that works for DCA is BTC - because there needs to be fundamental value if you are going to justify DCAing.

On the other hand, if you specify exactly what you are holding that constitutes Crypto, then maybe that would be helpful.   I would suggest 80% to 90% of crypto is in bitcoin, and then if you are suggesting some other amorphous crypto that you are going to hold, you better say which one, because there is no such thing as "crypto" even though some funds are set up to try to diversify across various "crypto" assets and some of them might even reallocate based on some kind of a formula, but it is still nonsense unless you specify what the fuck you are talking about when you use the word "crypto"... are you talking about bitcoin, and if you are allocating to anything else, then which ones?  And what kinds of allocation levels?  hopefully not very much, unless you have some kind of a specific reason and also perhaps some active management that might involved getting out of some of those non-bitcoin cryptos based on some fairly specific reasonings.

Maybe you like the idea of investing into "crypto" because you have that dumb idea in your user name?  so you believe it is a valid investment category? as contrasted to its more likely vagueness and confusion creating attributes.

I am pretty sure  that I framed the topic a wee bit differently.

So if you buy at the all time high and you continue to buy, then you will likely be continuing to bring down your average cost per BTC, which will likely put you into a better position than if you were to buy at the ATH and then just sit on such purchase and wait for the BTC price to go back above it...

So a lot of people who bought at or near the all time high in the $60ks may well be close to either getting back into profits or already back in profits; however, of course, if they heavily front-loaded their investment at those higher prices, then it might take a bit longer before their BTC starts to get back into profits (assuming that they kept buying BTC in the last year and a half or even in the last 2 and a half years.

Those are both retarded ideas... and have about a snowball's chance in hell of happening, even if you are trying to employ the authority that Satoshi actual proclaimed one of them.. which surely is not the case, absent some fantasy-landia misreading (misinterpretation).


Yeah.. that guy is retarded too.. especially if he is expecting less than $12k BTC...

And he likely is crazy to expect lower than $22k BTC, even though it is possible that he could get less than the 200-week moving average which is currently above $27k.. so the further down he is expecting to buy BTC the more fantasy landia he is.

Also, yeah.. never sell all of your BTC, and if you are feeling smart, maybe you sell 50% of them.. but that also does not seem like a great practice.. and part of the reason why incrementalism seems to be a better practice.. yet I can see some scenarios in which the BTC price does go up quite stupendously and sometimes it does end up coming back down (but sometimes it doesn't).


Wow!!!!!

You go OGNy!!!

 

If we are considering bitcoin to be in the mix of investments, it seems to me that framing our dilemma in terms of pulling out and getting back in does not seem to be a good idea.

One of the first things to consider is to figure out how much you need, and then continue to build towards getting how much you need and perhaps more than you need, and then once you have reached what you need or more than you need, then you will have more flexibility in terms of figuring out how much you might pull out in order to offset large price swings, and hopefully once you figure out how much you need, you will be careful in regards to going back below how much you need in the event that you are even willing to take those kinds of gambles at all.

There are likely some other kinds of investments that you are mostly just building (just like in bitcoin) and mostly not selling, even if you might shave some off from time to time, whether referring to properties, equities, commodities, or cash equivalents (like bonds).

Part of the point should be that you do not necessarily need to be completely right, and if you are whimpy about bitcoin (whether you are rich or not) then take a more whimpy position, such as 1%, but if you are more bullish, then take a larger position, such as 25%.

It is pretty short sighted for people to continue to fail/refuse  to get at least 1%, but there are a lot of people who are not really in the habit of investing, and if they do invest, they tend to invest into things that are very easy and do not require as much work.. so they invest into their residential property (even though it might take them 5-10 years to be able to save up for a down payment. .. and they also invest in something like a 401k plan if their work has it, and some folks do not even take advantage of their employer's 401k plan.. and so if they invest beyond those two kinds of items it is very rare.. because maybe they might consider their car to be an investment (even though cars tend to be depreciating assets), but it goes to show that people might not own very many things... and even if they add up their assets and off-set their assets by their liabilities, they still might ONLY end up with very small numbers when it comes to their networth.. and many times they do not even have a fraction of their annual salary saved up... such as even 20% to 50% of it (which would be a good start to consider how much they should have saved up, and even if they agree with you that it sounds like a good idea to save, a very overwhelmingly large number of people generally do not tend to do it).

It's called mining death spiral.

 


OMG!

OH no!

Everbody panic.






Are you trying "reverse psychology" on me?





Do you believe that I am dumb (retarded like you?).. no homo...  



I know moar better than that.




 


That flattening tendencia looks pretty conservative bro.

How do you know?

Squiggly lines are telling you?


Sounds like it might not need a condom.


This is another story...   it might require a condom.



Assuming your hypothetical facts as presented.   

Yes.

Of course, every single time that there is a price rise that gets close to or exceeds the prior ATH can be different.

And, it seems to me that there frequently forms a bit of a deadman's zone around the previous ATH.. but even a deadman's zone could end up failing.. and so it might be difficult to measure and/or determine where the deadman's zone this time around might be.. so any of us might make a kind of rough estimate regarding where it is.. which I would tentatively consider our current deadman's zone to be between about $55k and about $85k-ish.. .. so that largely just means that it is a kind of pass through area.. but if it fails (like it seems to have had done in late 2021 when it failed to get to $80k-ish), then the BTC price ends up correcting, and the theory about the deadman zone ends up not having had applied to the BTC price dynamics that time around.

Will the deadman's zone theory hold up this time or not?  The answer to that question is still to be seen...and I doubt that it is even an all or nothing bet... maybe it just slightly increases the odds that the price will pass through the zone without correcting?

I found what I believe to be a reasonable balance for myself, yet it would be difficult to imagine that every person is going to find exactly the same balance that I have found, even if there could be several similarities between some people... in terms of accounting for their cashflow, how much bitcoin they have already accumulated, their other investments (including cash reserves), their view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and their time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets , which includes figuring out the extent that they are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage) and their abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.


Fair enough.  Trying to time price moves can be very tricky, even for more experienced traders, and one of the things that likely happens with newer traders is that they will mostly prepare for one direction.. and perhaps in that sense, they put too much into that particular direction, so they are not sufficiently hedged for the other direction.  I imagine that even experienced traders are going to have some difficulties with both identifying how they want to balance their bets and in which direction, and then being able to move their bets when market conditions change.. and sometimes it is preferable NOT to move your bets too frequently, so it can be difficult to figure out if you do need to change or just wait it out.  I personally don't know how to do it, which is part of the reason that I try to set up my orders in a way that attempts to be price direction neutral.. and even with me, sometimes I have some dilemmas in regards to if I should make some changes.

For example, in about May 2022, I had my BTC buy orders set down to about $21k, but then when the BTC price broke below $35k.. I had a "holy shit!!!"moment and I felt that I had to spend some time restructuring my buy orders so that they would go lower.. (including removing some of them and spreading them out in the upper $20ks) and I also ended up restructuring my buy orders several times in the next several (maybe even up to 6 months) because of the extent to which BTC prices kept going lower but I was also running out of cash since I had been largely buying all the way down from $60k-ish in November 2021.. and yeah, hind-sight is 20/20 right?  because once the BTC price drops so low, then there might be some regrets about all the BTC that had been bought back at higher prices.. but that is somewhat how it goes when you "attempt" to set up buy/sell orders that are attempting to be somewhat neutral in regards to BTC price direction, while at the same time coming to the realization that there still is some amount of expectations of "extremes" that are built into how the orders are structured, and so when the BTC price moves more extremely than what extremes had been built in, there can be some frustration with those kinds of outcomes.



For sure there are some assumptions that are built into any BTC strategy, even if the strategy might not be emphasizing trading, but instead including some presumptions that the BTC price is going to always go up.. at least in the longer term, but when the BTC price is going down for 1 year or 2 years or even feeling like longer than that, then the underlying presumption might start to both come into question, but also not feel as if such presumption is as strong as it had previously felt.


There are still needs for fiat - especially if the vast majority of the world uses various kinds of fiat, so part of the balance still remains regarding how much value to keep in the fiat system versus the bitcoin system, and I believe that it is not healthy to move too much into BTC too quickly - even though again, people are going to come to their balances in different ways, depending on their circumstances and also depending on how they view the BTC versus fiat systems or if they are able to reasonably and accurately calculate their exposure levels.


People learn at their own pace, and sure there are a lot of people who have heard the word bitcoin, but they hardly have any clue what it is, or they have faulty information and/or opinions about bitcoin.  It cannot be easy to try to figure out what is going to cause some people to become more informed in regards to bitcoin or to see the necessity of becoming more informed. 

It seems that people are learning more and more about bitcoin, but it also seems that adoption is taking a long time to really happen, so sometimes people are not motivated to take any actions - unless or until they see the BTC price shoot up to some higher price, and then they might start paying attention, but then again, they might not.   Also some of us bitcoin holders might need to change some of our own views (and actions) and we might not even know it, so I am not going to attempt to presume to know what is better for others, when it is not even easy to know what is good for myself.. even though I have been attempting to share several of my ideas in this forum for the past 9.5 years.. and also sometimes sharing in other forums and in other areas of life with people who might be interested in the topic and not necessarily seeing me as a loonie. which surely some of the people in real life do consider me as a bit of a looney.. but some of them will also express regrets in regards to not listening to me.. so I pretty much end up repeating the same thing to the same people and a seemingly overwhelming majority of such peeps still seem to not really be inspired to take any action and/or to do anything beside thinking about it.

Of course, you have to look at what is available to you and in your location and based on options that you might be able to buy into.

There are many people who cannot afford houses, and surely it depends on where you are at if loans are available and if the conditions of loans might help for the property to be affordable to you and without any major tricks in the loan... so yeah sometimes people cannot even build up enough of a savings (or investments into other things to build their investment portfolio) in order to use that money for some kind of a downpayment on a house.

Of course, there might be some tax-deferred types of funds that you can invest smaller amounts into, and sometimes there is employer matching up to a certain amount for those funds too.. at least in the USA.. and the terms of those arrangements can vary quite a bit from employer to employer-- but it still tends to show that normies are not even very much into the practice of building up an investment portfolio, and maybe they are disincentivized in part because the money in retirement funds would get locked up until they retire (absent decently high penalties for early withdrawal.. and most advisors recommend against early withdrawal of retirement funds)...

So maybe those kinds of "on-the-ground" facts would be part of the justification to figure out some kind of way of saving and investing in order that you are both able to save/invest small amounts of money at a time, and your funds are not necessarily locked up until you retire.. even though it does not hurt to attempt to impose some of that lock-up on yourself in order to attempt to receive some of the extra compounding effects of that value. 

So of course, something like bitcoin gives you control and you can choose to invest small amounts, such as $10 per week... but if you invest small amounts, you still may well need to spend 10 or more years investing before it starts to feel like a meaningful amount, and you likely also have to figure out ways in which you are able to hold most of your value privately so that no one takes it from you - including being careful that you do not make other kinds of mistakes such as not adequately securing your coins or getting distracted into nonsense products that involve gambling, luck and other skills that most normies do not have.. so it is safer for an overwhelming majority of normies to stick to more basic approaches of building wealth through regular, ongoing, persistent and maybe even a bit aggressive accumulation (without overdoing it).

Did you move the goal posts on us?

Or, are you merely thinking outside of the box?

 

hahahahaha

That's exactly the case.  You have such a winning investment, such as bitcoin, in which you might bet a certain amount, and so you could lose that amount (100%) or you could end up going up in price several percentages or even multiples or even magnitudes, and that is the nature of an asymmetric  bet, you can ONLY lose what you put in but you have great upside potential.

Except you can fuck all of that asymmetric bet by employing margin and leverage, and turn a winning bet into a loser.. and even lose all your money with a merely small BTC correction of 20% because you thought that it was a great idea to go 5x...and you end up fucking yourself because you don't even realize that your greediness is causing you to be stupid about what is the product that you are buying.


Yep. .even people who invested small amounts 9-10 years ago and just consistently kept buying small amounts, ended up doing quite well if they did not deviate from their efforts to accumulate BTC on a regular and consistent basis. 

Of course, the more aggressive ones did better, but you can ONLY be as aggressive as your budget is able to allow, so surely you do not want to employ tactics that are so aggressive that you end up recking (or screwing) yourself out of your own bitcoin because you did not adequately prepare yourself in terms of keeping and maintaining and rebuilding an adequate cash reserves that includes emergency expenses.

There is nothing really unreasonable about any of that, and I think that after about a year of my being into bitcoin, I started to think that 1% to 10% is a kind of reasonable allocation for me, and for any normie out there in the world, and so when I ended up allocating in the ballpark of 13.5% by the end of 2015, I started to think that I was getting a bit heavier into bitcoin than what would have had been within the prudence/reasonable range.

After March 2020, I started to reconsider what I thought might be reasonable and prudent based on the stronger bitcoin investment thesis that had developed and I largely ended up going up to considering 1% to 25% to be within the range of reasonable/prudent.. so for me, anything within that range would not necessarily overallocation "on its face" absent some further facts explaining why it should be considered "overallocation." 

So yeah, like you suggested, if your emergency fund is not very good. then you surely have to be careful about increasing your BTC investment or even investing into bitcoin at all until you get your shit together in regards to making sure that all of your monthly expenses are covered and including having enough of an emergency fund so that you would not have to dip into your bitcoin investment absent some kind of a screw up..or really rare situation.

In my cursory recollection, I can ONLY remember having to dip into my BTC investment in any kind of any meaningful way in October/November/December 2018, and I thought that I had enough funds to cover a variety of expenses that I had that were mostly construction related and the bills had come in way sooner than expected.. including that the project was moving faster than expected (those guys were just too efficient).. and so what ended up happening is that I ended up dipping into somewhere in the ballpark of 3.5% of my BTC holdings, and it was not at a very good time (or BTC price)... and I am pretty sure that within the next six months or so, I was ONLY able to replace about half of the amount that I had dipped into..and actually if we recall that the BTC went up from $4,200-ish to $13,880 from April to June, so there was a bit of a need for me to just write off the inability to timely buy back that sold portion of my BTC holdings within a reasonable period of time.. and I largely stopped dwelling on it because it was kind of water under the bridge and something that I pretty much had to do.. but even if I look at my BTC projections from that timeframe, and I see how many BTC that I hold today at those various price projections, it really seems that I had made up for the amount that I sold and that I had not bought back at that time.. so my BTC portfolio has not really suffered in any kind of meaningful way in terms of possibly selling around 1.75% of it (the portion that I had not been able to buy back at that time).

I think that part of my point is that if you fairly consistently engage in decent BTC portfolio management, you can take a few (or even several) hits to your BTC portfolio, and still be able to experience a solidly growing BTC portfolio, especially as the years pass and the BTC seem to largely continue to build up... and maybe more so if you consider yourself in earlier BTC accumulation phases than me, and I mostly consider myself to be in maintenance stage, even though from time to time, I still will take advantage of some of the dips to accumulate more than a mere maintenance stage would suggest.


For sure there is a balance - because you are frequently going to feel as if you should have been more aggressive in your BTC investment approach, even though you may well have had already been sufficiently aggressive.. so those are likely false alarms, even though you might learn a bit about yourself and maybe learn how to make some tweaks in your approach that will help you to feel better overall, which seems to largely be what you are describing yourself to be doing.. tweaks here and there.. to potentially help to feel more comfortable, overall.


Hopefully you are using the 200-week moving average.   

I put together a kind of chart for myself that shows that I am authorized to withdraw within some various formulas that change depending on how high the BTC price is above the 200-week moving average..

I have not quite gotten to the point of publishing that chart here yet since it is a bit complicated, and I was considering providing a google spreadsheet for that.. but I was still a bit uncomfortable with my OPsec as it is currently set up... so let me just describe the idea a bit... even though it may or may not quite apply to you... since you might not have gotten to the level of over accumulation (or close enough to fuck you status, as I consider my own situation to be.. but the chart might still potentially apply as a kind of consideration point. perhaps?)

so in essence the higher that the BTC price is above the 200-week moving average, then it authorizes multiples of months of withdrawal ahead of time, so for example if I had already established a monthly withdrawal amount that could be anywhere between 1% of the value of my investment portfolio and perhaps down to 0.33% (which would be between 4% and 12% annualized depending on how much I want to authorize), and once the BTC price 33% above the 200 week moving average, then I am authorized to withdraw 2 months in advance rather than one month at a time...

and so if the BTC price is 100% above the 200-week moving average, then I am allowed to withdraw 6 months of my monthly allowance, and so there are incentives to wait for higher BTC prices in order to be able to withdraw more months in advance...  and of course, if you exercise your withdrawal too early, then you have to calculate that into limiting how much you subsequently withdraw, and so for example if the BTC price is 900% above the 200-week moving average then I am able to withdraw 48 months in advance or if it is 1,900% above the 200-week moving average, then I am able to withdraw 60 months in advance.. so these surely can be challenging because the 200-week moving average and the BTC price are each continuously changing.   

BTC prices have gotten to those kinds of outrageously high multiples of the 200-week moving average in the past, but surely there are no guarantees that BTC prices will get that high above the 200-week moving average in the future, but I have some formulas that help me to personally deal with those kinds of situations..

and if you are personally talking about BTC in terms of years (such as 2029 versus 2033).. then you might not even be ready to apply the formulas that I am discussing until you get past your year thresholds which seem to me to be a point in which you are thinking that you are potentially getting at, near or even exceeding entry-level fuck you status.

Of course, it does not hurt to spend some time studying the basics in regards to what bitcoin, is but one of the more important things to do is to figure out how to get started investing into bitcoin as soon as possible, so don't delay by researching, but instead start investing right away with a small amount of value (perhaps $10 per week or perhaps $100 per week or some other amount that you deem to be relatively small and reasonable), and while you are starting to invest, then start to spend time learning about yourself and your own budget and how to make sure that you are investing properly and that you are not gambling with your income.

Let's say for example, you have not been investing into bitcoin, but you have been working for 10 years, an you have an income of about $40k per year, and your investment portfolio is around $60k.  If you have already built an investment portfolio then it will be easier to figure out how much of an allocation that you want to put into bitcoin and whether you want to attempt to reach your bitcoin allocation quickly or if you might take 1-2 years to bring the bitcoin portion of your investment into proper allocation, and while you are investing into bitcoin, you can also study it.

Now if you are brand new to investing, and you have no investment portfolio, if you have an annual income of $20k to $40k (let's say $30k for the sake of argument) , you can try to determine how much you are able to spare from your cashflow in order to start to invest into bitcoin, and with a $30k income you should be able to reasonably invest close to $100 per week,.. but that might be too aggressive, since it would result in about 17% of your annual salary going into bitcoin ($5,200 after a year), so you might want to study to figure out if you are able to be that aggressive in your investment into bitcoin, so instead of $100 per week, you might start with $50 per week and while at the same time study bitcoin and figure out other aspects of your own finances and psychology - including potentially figuring out how much that you might need to pay off any other debts that you might have or if there might be any reasonable ways that you might be able to cut your expenses and/or increase your income...and continue to study bitcoin..

...but get started investing right away..and don't spend a lot of time studying prior to getting started beyond just figuring out some of the basics in regards to where to get it and some of the ways maybe to NOT have to pay a lot of fees, and you can figure out some of the wallet stuff as you build your investment amount - since it is likely better that you build your investment and then figure out how to store your seeds at a later date - including that we want people to hold their own keys, but if you are investing less than $100 per week, while you are learning and getting started, it could take several months before you start to feel that your investment into bitcoin is getting to be a lot.. and if you try to invest, 10% of your income into bitcoin, then even after a year of investing into bitcoin, you would ONLY end up having around 10% of your annual income in bitcoin... but during that time, you can learn how you are going to want to store your own keys privately, rather than holding your coins with a third party.