Yeah but $69/$71k is right in the middle of noman's land.  Wouldn't it be unreliable to be suggesting some places in the middle of noman's land as being somewhere where we might be at a particular time, since the mere idea of noman's land is a tendency to play out as a kind of pass through range.

Sure, you might coincidentally get your price guessing nostradamus wannabe correct, but it would seem more solid to attempt to design your predictions on various potential plateau price locations rather than probable pass through price locations.


Seems like a coincidence more than anything - even if their might be some BIG players with BTC price directional desires around such price point.

It is nice to be currently floating (ballpark spot price range = $28,400 to $31k^**) $largely 5%-15% above the 200-week moving average (currently $27,128), and really a lot of 2015 was floating ball-parkedly in similar levels above the 200-week moving average.. and surely this year is not really as much like 2015 because the BTC price spent a whole shit-ton of time floating below the 200-week moving average (even while the 200-week moving average never turned negative), but there were a couple of months that the price was 20% to 35% below the then 200-week moving average.

**note I am largely just making up these number ranges, and sure they are likely a wwwweeeeeee bit of a moving target, even though I am still suggesting that my "don't wake me up price range" is still currently in the ballpark of $25k to $35k.

By the way the 200-week moving average is currently moving up at about $15 per day, but when we were in the early November 2022 through early January 2023 doldrums, the 200-week moving average was only moving up around $10 per day... maybe on a percentage basis, there might not be much if any change in the slope, but it still feels good man to see the substantive numbers moving up to such an extent, which just seems like a kind of cushion in terms of how much downity that it might well take to drag such 200-week moving average back down to ONLY going up $10 per day, if that were even reasonably probable to happen.. doesn't seem like it, but I am personally not going to completely rule it out.. even though it seems that our current dynamics continues to contribute towards price pressures in which the 200-week moving average is ongoingly moving up in terms of giving us higher and higher amounts in which it is tending to rise each day - a difficult dynamic to fight, even for the bitcoin hating/fearing beartards.  


There does not seem to be any reasons to not be buying.. even though some people do actually consider bitcoin as being "topish," but it seems to me that those with such "topish" perspectives are not really understanding bitcoin very well.. including getting some kind of realistic assessment in regards to how bitcoin's current actual price seems to be relating to various happenings in the current macro-world.  

Another thing is that we likely realize that somewhere in the ballpark of 99% of normies are still not currently buying bitcoin, and gosh I wonder what is the percentage of institutions, rich peeps and governments?  

It's not easy to really know the data - even though there likely is some data - but I get the sense that even institutions, rich peeps and governments are not more than a percentage or two of them into bitcoin, even though continuously there are some bigger and BIGGER players coming out of the woodwork and stating that they have some bitcoin exposure (how much? is another question, and can you actually believe them?  Gotta have doubts about any of those "actual exposure" numbers being very high.. but hey, what do I know?... it is not like I am presenting actual data beyond my own osmosis like sense of things - which may or may not be as accurate as I would prefer it to be).

I doubt that this explanation is complete, but it seems to be in the ballpark of something kind of decent.

Let's say if the guy is waiting for his next drink but people keep joining in the cue, so there are ways that he can shorten his time or stop his time from getting longer, and what would that be?  Maybe he has to bring a BIG thug friend with him, like a guy from the Mafia, then he gets back to his original time, even if there are more people waiting, he still has to wait, but the fact that he brought some extra muscle into the mix is going to work for him for a while, until the next guy brings his mafia friend.. etc etc.

and every so often (after 2016 drinks are served) the bartenders are added or subtracted based on whether drinks were served every 10 second or if it took longer.  

Whatever.. I am fucking this up.. it was your analogy in the first place.. and I am just trying to suggest that there was something incomplete about it.


Well for the analogy, use 10 seconds rather than 10 minutes.   The time does not have to be exactly the same in order for the analogy to be potentially workable.. even though it seems that the analogy has other flaws.


Even though I don't really like how shitcoins have exploited various systems, and some of the exchanges, including Coinbase went down a path of blindly listing every piece of shit that exists, I still have trouble cheering for the SEC in these kinds of matters. 

But hey, whatever, you do you.


You are taking the analogy too personally Phil.

Work with it.

Work with it.

For sure the analogy has flaws, but calling miners alcoholics is not one of the flaws.


#justsaying


Yeah.. stick around and find out that you weren't quite the Nostradamus that you wanted to be.


What else is new?


 


The more you defend your analogy.. the more it seems to suck... even though it is better than nothing, and surely it is better than what Learn Bitcoin had come up with on his own.

 

Every year (or cycle or whatever) comes out differently, and even if they might kind of look a like, we need to be careful in terms of putting too many expectations regarding how things might play out in terms of their specifics.

If you think about it, your description of where we are at (versus where we have been) is not even correct.

Do you recall that we spent a pretty solid 2 months that were mostly in the lower $16ks?

It seems that our current position shows a bounce from that point, no?

It's not enough of a bounce for you?

Our current spot is pretty damned well in the range of 50% to 80% up from that 2 month low.. and we have been here largely since early to mid March.. so that is getting close to 5 months.

Hey, it is not even guaranteed that we will go up from here, but it still seems to be a great place to be stacking sats.

Remember in 2015 we had spent about 8 months in the mid $200s and then we spent another in early 2016 for 6-7 months mostly in the lower $400s.. and yeah people were pretty depressed  each time that these stagnant periods happen.. we can go through each of the cycles and see those kind of things, and yeah the time periods do vary, but still they seem long (and uncertain) while we are going through them, and surely if you are thinking about the 3.5x boost that we got between April and June 2019, that was absolutely amazing, and surely it could happen again, but you cannot count on those kinds of wonderful and spectacular events that really fuck up a lot of bears. Sure we want to see those events, but you are unrealistic if you are putting high odds of those kinds of amazing things to happen.

Don't get me wrong, there are pretty good chances that at some point bears are going to get reckt as fuck, but who knows when it is going to happen or if it is going to happen, but I would not write off such a bear fucking.. even if we cannot really have any confidence in what price range or how it might be triggered and/or when.  We know the holding the ball under the water meme.. and yeah, the ball could stay held under the water much longer than any rational person can stay solvent.. including another couple of years (doesn't seem likely, but it could end up playing out that way).  Strong hands gotta be prepared for anything .

I recall that you had said that you had bought some more BTC, and if you have been buying in the last year-ish, you should be in really good shape right now in terms of the supplementation of your earlier BTC purchases (I cannot remember if you did them in 2021 or was it early 2022.. maybe it was during the mid-year 2021 dip), and not even needing a doubling or a tripling of the BTC price in order to be in pretty solid place in terms of your own current BTC holdings.. which I recall had been in the mid $30ks.. but if you had been aggressively buying BTC in the last year (even $100 per week), then you may well could have brought your average purchase price down a few thousand, perhaps?  

I am not exactly trying to get into your details, even though sometimes it does help to work with some numerical frameworks, even though almost no matter what any of us do, there can be ways to frame the situation in ways to suggest "I could have done better." blah blah blah..

And, we can ONLY do what we can do.. and we can ONLY act now, if there might be something that we might want to do now in terms of buying or planning buys or even other less recommendable strategies, as you know that I don't really recommend anything except buying especially if your holdings might either be in the negative or barely into profits, if they were to happen to be in profits.


Maybe it is not a bad tactic?  

We all have to start somewhere, and I am not sure where to point you.  

There are a lot of basic things about bitcoin and a variety of resources, and there are even threads that are aimed at some of those basic ideas that have links contained therein too.

The difficulty adjustment is basic, but it is surely one of the most amazing things about bitcoin, too.. ... and I don't even have enough of an ability to explain it, even though there are a lot of people who do great jobs explaining those kinds of things.

Anyhow, maybe you can just save your post, and then you go and look up some issues in relation to the difficulty adjustment, and then respond to your own pot or maybe provide us with your information that links to the other sources?  

I am sure guys here would not shirk away from commenting on your comments that are attempting to bring up substantive ideas about mining, especially if they are grappling with actual mining dynamics rather than your just making shit up in regards to the mining death spiral that does not work out in reality as much when you actually attempt to account for the actual bitcoin reality that contains a difficulty adjustments about every two weeks (every 2016 blocks).

You can even watch it here:

Latest Block:   801132  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.9365%  (781 / 789.40 expected, 8.4 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   53911173001054.59                            
Current Difficulty:   52328312063443.84                            
Next Difficulty:   between 51791367219011 and 51991573996741
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0261% and -0.6435%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 8:39 AM  (-2.9361%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 9, 2023 at 10:54 AM  (in 8d 14h 41m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 9, 2023 at 12:16 PM  (in 8d 16h 2m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 15m 22s and 14d 3h 36m 42s

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


and here:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

Of course, there are other places that you can watch various aspects of the dynamics of the difficulty adjustments, try to understand it MOAR better and to see what bitcoin-informed people are saying about such an eighth wonder of the world.


I would have rather that you would have summarized something about the article.. including potentially highlighting the 5 things.. but I sent an smerit anyhow.. even though you probably didn't deserve it..


hahahahahhahaha

 

Well if someone is just learning about bitcoin, and they cannot control whether it is a bull season or not.   
 

They may well need to get a stake right away.. and then maybe figure out details later.

Right now we might be in a bull season, even if we have a bit of a plateau for the past nearly 5 months.

But yeah, they might be in a worse situation if they come to bitcoin at $80k, and then they have to consider whether the BTC price is going to dip or not. .and if so when?  There is no guarantee that BTC prices will dip back past $80k once they go above that.. so people coming to bitcoin at that time ($80k and other various points) do have some potential dilemmas regarding whether to wait or to get started right away.. and if they get started right away, then by how much?

It seems that in bitcoin, we are frequently advantaged by being in bitcoin for a long time, but sometimes the first several years can be painful, even though the best choice, even in a bull market might be to get started sooner rather than later... and it is just a matter of how much to start with and how much, if any, to hold in reserves.

eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee








eeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!



eeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!


eeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!

 




Hahahahahaha


We can relate.... even though 4 SURE you have years and years and years of a headstart on me. 

Here's my first responsive haiku... responding to your invisible one:







Here is my second responsive haiku, responding to your conflation of the ideas of space and return carriage:















Please note that each of my responsive haikus are artistically expressed in an invisible kind of a way.  Also note:  I have more spaces (return carriages) in the second responsive haiku as contrasted with the first one.  For reasons.

Another thing is that you do not have to invest at the bottom in order to be profitable, so people who had been investing into bitcoin for the past 3 years are surely in profits, even if they bought some bitcoin at higher prices.  A straight DCA approach of buying $100 worth of BTC every week over the last 3 years would have resulted in $15,700 invested and 0.621 BTC accumulated.  Looks profitable to me, and whether you could have been it by buying on dips is not easy to know, because sometimes those who DCA invest into bitcoin might be able to be more aggressive than those who try to strategize their buys.. but sure.. no problem, there might have been some folks who might have had been able to invest $15,700 over the past 3 years and got more than 0.621 BTC.. perhaps? perhaps?


I agree with everything that you say, especially in regards to getting started early and perhaps attempting to be somewhat aggressive in terms of making sure that you get a stake in bitcoin.

However I doubt that it is a good idea (or even necessary) to front-load your investment into BTC with a loan, even though it could pay off to use debt and to front load your investment, I question the extent to which it is necessary to engage in leverage... especially since bitcoin is likely one of the best asymmetric bets that exist (if not the best), and why screw up a good deal by adding leverage to it, which might cause you to fuck up a good thing.

In other words, everyone should attempt to be as aggressive as they can in terms of their approach to bitcoin and in terms of getting a stake in bitcoin and figuring out how much of a stake that they want to get into bitcoin and attempt to be as aggressive as they are able to be without over doing it, and in that regard, each person has to attempt to account for all of his/her financial and psychological specifics if s/he is wanting to attempt to be as aggressive that s/he is able to be without overdoing it.


Loans have all kinds of conditions, and you have to figure out if you believe that any loan that you are eligible for would be worth it to take out.

So for example, if your loan has to be paid back in a year.. that is one thing.  If your loan needs to have payments and it has to be paid back at the end of the year, that's another thing.  What is the interest rate?  Is it 5%?  10%  15% or some higher amount?  Are you dependent upon the proceeds of bitcoin to pay back the loan, or do you have other ways that you can pay back the loan in the event that bitcoin does not get to a place in which you would like to sell it.  How much income are you able to earn over the next year?  is that income enough to pay the loan plus the interest rate (plus any service fees that might attach to the loan)?

You should pretty easily be able to calculate these kinds of factors to figure out if you are willing to take the risks on using leverage rather than just buying bitcoin through your normal channels.. and also including that if you don't take out a loan, then you still can get price exposure, that price exposure will not be front loaded though. 

If you are not really calculating these kinds of matters to make sure that you understand each of them, then you are using such loan to gamble rather than invest, and you could turn a good investment into a bad outcome.. so in bitcoin you usually would ONLY be able to lose up to 100%, but with a loan, you increase how much you can lose and how fast you can lose it... and of course, there is upside potential too... but don't let greed fog your vision in terms of calculating whether or not taking a loan is a good idea based on your own specifics, and your speculation of the likely direction of the BTC price is ONLY one of the factors that you should be considering.

Your way of talking about this is weird nurilham.

Sure there was an expectation that the BTC price top was going to be at or exceeding $100k, and this time around, there is likely expectations that the top could reasonably be anywhere between $250k and $500k - of course, the BTC price could end up topping out outside of that expected range, including that it might not even make it above the previous $69k ATH.

Your talk of $80k to $100k seems to be just out of touch, even though something like that could end up happening, it seems like an outlier possibility.

Don't get me wrong, UPpity scenarios are not even close to guaranteed in bitcoin, but part of the reason that any of us might be investing into bitcoin and thinking about the possibility of it going up stupendously is because it remains quite lowly adopted, especially if you consider its likely ongoing greatest peaceful wealth transfer in the world ever to take place that is tied in to network effects and metcalfe principles, so even if their are ongoing battles to keep the BTC prices from going up, there surely are no guarantees that the ongoing battles to keep BTC prices down are going to be successful, even if powerful and rich people/entities/governments are working in such direction. 

So there are no needs to get all hot and bothered about possible upside scenarios, but it still seems foolish to talk about $80k to $100k as if they were realist tops, even if this cycle could end up playing out that way. 

It seems more realistic to attempt  to appreciate bitcoin for what it is, including an ongoingly strong asymmetric bet to the upside, which means that you likely do not even need to bet very much on bitcoin's upside potential to be able to profit from it, so long as you put some value into  bitcoin and get off zero and don't be too whimpy about it and don't be fucking selling too  soon, even though you can do whatever you like and you end up selling most if not all of your cornz between $80k and $100k, don't come crying to me when BTC prices end up going over a $million in this cycle and either you don't have any cornz or you bought them all back at $900k. and you get recked when the BTC price drops down to $300k.

In udder wordz.. for your own good, it is better be preparing for a variety of scenarios, including upside scenarios and don't be selling most if not all of your cornz too soon... just in case. 

you will thank me later.. perhaps.  no guarantees.


Yes.. and hopefully you and your fiat-minded buddies do not end up getting too reckt because you don't seem to understand what is BTC and you end up selling way too many cornz too soon. 

In udder wurds:  Good luck with your selling most if not all of your BTC at around $100k.. You will likely need it.  No guarantees.


Oh wow!!!! you have a very long investmetn time horizon.. a whole 3-4 years.  Wow.


 
Unless you are dying or planning on retiring and living off your bitcoin, it is likely better to be thinking out further than 3-4 years.. but hey... do what you like.

Real profits from bitcoin are likely going to play out for several cycles, and anyone wanting to truly be rich from their bitcoin are hopefully thinking about how to manage their bitcoin portfolio within longer time horizons.. otherwise you may well be left with way fewer bitcoin than you could have had and merely holding on to fiat or whatever else you are planning on buying with your bitcoin, and nothing much to show for what "could have been." 


You seem to be placing a lot of conditions upon king daddy in order for its price to go up.

BTC's price can go up very quickly and several multiples and magnitudes in a very short amount of time.

Of course, it does not go straight up, but sometimes the momentum creates more momentum, so going up 2x or 3x or even 10x from here may well not take very long, even if there could be several corrections along the way.

Sure, you could be right that it takes until the end of next year and even longer for a 3x from here to actually play out, but I would not be so smug about placing conditions on king daddy as if you believe that you happen to know something about how it might be limited.. especially if you may well not be sufficiently/adequately accounting for where BTC is in light of the likelihood that we are still in early stages of an exponential s-curve adoption curve that is propelled by network effects and metcalfe principles... so if you are thinking/framing and limiting dee cornz as if it were a mature asset class, then you likely do not really understand dee cornz.... and you are mixing it up with something else...

Of course, there are no guarantees, and your idea of slow and gradual and many resistance points for the next couple of years could end up playing out.. but then again, it might not... hopefully you have enough cornz and you do not sell too many of them at various points along the way in which you believe that there are "resistance points."


Yes.  It frequently feels like bitcoin price is NOT going to go up.

Until it does.

Do you even understand what is bitcoin?

Maybe go back to the drawing board and study a wee bit moar better.

#justsaying.


And, if not the following year, then the year after that, and if not that year then the next year.

Yes, I agree with your statement, as modified by me.


Your use of the term "always" is problematic.

There are no guarantees.

Bitcoin is a great (if not the best) assymetric bet to the upside, but that does not mean that the upside has "100% odds" of happening... The word "always" assigns 100% odds to the ATH being broken.. which is categorically not true.  You have made a mistake in logic and a mistake in language to reflect your logic.


Well bitcoin price as a product has the time element contained therein, and the ONLY time that we know about is right now.  Right now, as I type this post, BTC is priced at about $29,200.... 100% true at this particular moment of submitting this post.

So if we pick a time in the future, then we have to try to figure out what is the probability that the BTC price will go to that price or that range of prices within the time that we pick.  Once the time happens, then the price either made it there or not ended up being whatever it was when it passed through that time.

Some people assert that I can choose a price that bitcoin will reach, but I cannot necessarily choose the time in which it will get there... and then we can also suggest our times as ranges too... or I could say that at some time prior to December 31, 2024, BTC will reach $100k (but I am not saying when and I am not saying if it will be sustained).

Sure, if you work with BTC price ranges and time ranges, then it is more likely that the BTC price would get within a range at a particular time, or maybe there are ways to make the price ranges really broad and the time range pretty broad too, and then it becomes more likely that the price prediction will be correct within the timeframe.

We can pick bottoms and tops too.

I personally prefer to figure out bottoms, but most people seem to get focused on the shininess of tops that may or may not end up happening... but the bottoms are something that we can say that we might consider that the price has good chances of not going below that bottom, and surely the 200-week moving average has traditionally been one of those kinds of bottoms that does not get breached too often or too easily.  It reflects the average weighted bitcoin price for the past 4 years, and throughout all of BTC's history it has not been breached very often.

Sure, it was breached a lot and even for extended periods of time for about 8 months starting from June 2022, but it usually does not get breached too easily and the BTC spot price usually does not stay below the 200-week moving average for very much time at all.. maybe a few days or a week or two at most, and right now, as of yesterday, the 200-week moving average is at 27,113, and it is moving up at about $15 per day.  Not bad.. Not bad...

If the BTC spot price goes up to higher levels then the 200-week moving average will tend to move up at a faster pace, too.. the slope becomes steeper.  You can see in the history of the 200-week moving average in this chart.

But, yeah, in this thread we are talking about tops, not bottoms, and of course, even if we are not planning to sell our BTC, we still might want to consider its value in terms of the top, and then also if we want to engage in BTC portfolio management, maybe we want to consider how much distance is between the bottom or the top in order to helop us to consider how much (if any) BTC that we might want to sell.  So if it takes all the way until the end of 2024 for the BTC price to move up to $100k, then it may well end up that the BTC price is not very high above the 200-week moving average, especially if the 200-week moving average continues to move up about $15 per day.

So if there is 515 days until the end of 2024, and if the 200-week moving average continues to move up $15 per day, then the 200-week moving average would be right around $35k  ($27,113 + $7,725). 

We should realize that throughout bitcoin's history it has been in a battle, so it does not tend to move in stable kinds of ways, and it has had recent peaks that were  16x (in December 2017) and 5.5x (in March 2021) above the 200-week moving average.  So getting 3x above the 200-week moving average seems within reasonable reach.. even though again, it surely is not guaranteed... and another thing is that the 200-week moving average may or may not continue to move up at the same pace.. it could move up faster or it could move up slower, but it could still be a decent measure in regards to figuring out how far the spot price happens to be above it (or below it in the rare cases that BTC prices have ended up going below the 200-week moving average).

Thanks for your outline.

Within this category of online wallets, I don't really claim to know very much about the comparisons of these, even though I have been using Bluewallet for a bit over a year.. and was glad to be able to have both lightning and the Blue wallet thorugh the same interface (until they took their own lightning node out of the loop, so now my lightning wallets are currently Phoenix and Breez).. so I still use Bluewallet for their onchain wallet.. and I suppose it is a replacement for some of the other centralized wallets that I had been using.. which maybe I should not even mention the name..but I was using a couple of different ones,

but anyway, I was wondering why Specter is not in your list.. when you mention Sparrow and Electrum.. what about Specter?  Do they have issues to cause them to fall off of your list,  or you have not looked into Specter?  

I downloaded both Specter and Sparrow, but I have not used either of them.

I had been considering whether I should look further into comparing Sparrow and Specter in terms of hooking it up to a Bitcoin Core node, which I ONLY recently started running BC on a couple of computers.. even though I don't exactly know what Bitcoin Core is doing beyond taking up 1/2 TB of space on each of the computers and showing me how many peers (usually between 10 and 30) are connected to each of these two nodes, but it seems that a lot of members in the forum are not even mentioning Specter anymore, but I frequently see Sparrow mentioned and praised.. while suggesting that there are "technical" aspects with any of these wallets.  

I also have not used Electrum (besides downloading it), even though I know it is quite popular due to its being open source and having had been around for a long time.

By the way.. I do use a Trezor one (since 2017) and a Trezor Model T (since about 2019?) .. and I had used Ledger in 2017.. but I got really frustrated with it.. and even seeming bugs, so I just stopped even trying to use the Ledger.. maybe I used it for around a year before I just couldn't be bothered screwing around with it.. and I did not really like the idea that they were not open source.. even though people frequently applauded them for their secure element.. but of course their reputation got a bit worse with their dancing around firmware updates and then even the discussions that caused questions about how much anyone should have had been trusting them in the first place.

 I have tended to like Trezor because of its being open source.. and even using common hardware.. even though surely it does seem that there might be some newer hardware devices that might be better, as you mentioned passport. .and yeah, I don't like the idea of Trezor's mixing service with Wasabi or their teaming up with that Wasabi service.. so I hope that they are not otherwise compromised since I am aware of some of the concerns of the Wasabi coordinators (or whatever they are called)... so yeah, if I were to end up using Electrum, Sparrow or Specter, then I would want to be able to connect my Trezor to my Bitcoin Core Node through one or more of those interfaces, whether it would be Electrum, Sparrow and/or Spector.. not that I am exactly sure about how to do any of that hooking up; kinds of things, yet.. just besides thinking about the possibility of using my Trezors in that kind of a way... or any other hardware wallet that I might get in the future.

It is good to attempt to work around some businesses that you know, and in that way sometimes you can end up getting some insider information, and then to build bigger and bigger jobs upon references, and sure at some points, there might be preferences for capital injections, but capital injections are not going to necessarily improve your situation, if you are not able to use that capital in ways that is able to pay back more than the capital that you had injected, and sometimes the pay back might not come within the first year or two of the injection but might take a while before something like good will increases to compound upon itself resulting in higher paying and/or more profitable jobs..


Do you really think so?

The BTC price was in the $40ks, $50ks & $60ks for most of 2021, and even the first 4 months of 2022. 

Anyone who started investing into bitcoin during any of that time did not necessarily do the wrong thing, even if they might have had ended up lump sum front-loaded his/her investment into bitcoin.

However, they might have made some mistakes if they either had to sell some or all of their BTC when the BTC price went lower than $40k after after early May 2022, and/or if they failed to buy BTC between May 2022 and now.

Now, right now you might believe that you are smarter than everyone else because you think that you know that the BTC market was saying that it was at its top between early 2021 and April of 2022, yet I really doubt that you know shit about what was going to happen to BTC after April 2022 - except for that right at this time you can see what actually happened after April 2022, so now the 2021 to early 2022 data seems so damned clear and that anyone should have had known better.

Yeah right.   

Fact of the matter is that you did not know, and hardly anyone else knew, even some of the twats who were leveraged to the tits (including SBF) did not know that their were going to get reckt as fuck - I think that even as late as October 2022, SBF and his fellow fraudsters thought that he was going to be able to buy his way back into profitable BTC to keep his charade going - including BTC going well above $40k. 

And of course, I am not even wanting to suggest that the over leveraging of BTC was ONLY the fault of SBF because it seems that Terra/Luna was one of the first to go down, and we had weaknesses shown in others that came from that first cascade that included Voyager, BlockFi, Celsius, 3AC, and a few others that then later showed weaknesses in DCG and Genesis that came after the FTX and Alameda failures.

It was not know that any of that cascading was going to end up happening then, and any of us should be able to imagine realistic scenarios in which the BTC price went above $100k prior to those businesses failing (and maybe some of those businesses would not have had failed if BTC prices had gone up before they went down)... BTC's price action from May 2022 until now was not "inevitable" and "known" as you are trying to act like you are smarter than everyone else right now because you see what had happened, and maybe you, Altryist, try to come up with some kind of a lame retrospective (hindsight is 20/20) rendition of BTC price charts that shows that "everyone should have known" blah blah blah.


Well, you are not wrong about this later assertion.

Part of the problem is that not very many people can get a "good market read" and getting a good market read is ONLY one part of the formula when you are trying to figure out how to invest into bitcoin, whether it is DCA, buying on dips, lump sum investment or a variety of such tactics, and surely your willingness to explore the weighing of the advantages and disadvantages of each of the methods seems to demonstrate that you know that there are various trade-offs with each of the BTC accumulation methods.

And, even if you try to time your BTC buys, there are trade-offs if you fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately buy on either a regular basis or even when a certain level of dip had already taken place because you are saving too much value in fiat waiting for BTC price dips that might not end up happening.


I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Wend, but you may well suffer from one of the same problems as Altryist when you are suggesting that anyone would have known (or had any kind of meaningful level of confidence) that the BTC price was going to drop below $40k in 2022.  Yes, right now, you can see it all seems so damned clear, but it was not necessarily clear throughout 2021 or even into early 2022.

Yes.. we will see.

Cannot be rushing these kinds of matters, especially when it comes to shaking weak hands and various other manipulation strategies that frequently work until they no longer work... and it is kind of sweet when the bears get reckt.. .. and if it were up to a lot of the bears, we would still be struggling below $500..


... but guess what?


We are not struggling below $500 and many of those previous bears have had to jump on board, even if they might still be trying to fuck around with BTC prices, some of them are likely going to get burned, and whether we go above our previous ATH of $69k in this particular cycle or not may well not matter a whole hell of a lot to guys/gals who have been in bitcoin for a while, and it also might well should not matter to much to newbies either, especially if they are still engaged in various tactics to accumulate cornz.

Getting fuck you status levels of profits from something like dee cornz can take a decently long chance to play out, there are no guarantees, and surely one aspect of an asymmetric bet to the upside is that you do not necessarily need to have a lot of value in it in order to potentially profit stupendously, so sure, you may or may not want to be aggressive with your bitcoin investment, and it does seem to be better to attempt to be a bit aggressive, but everyone makes their own choices in terms of their time-preference trade-offs - including realizing that no investment is guaranteed, even while the investment thesis for bitcoin still seems to be pretty strong, even if there are ongoing manipulations of price and sentiment.. but what else is new?
 
Each of us has to figure out our own strategy (ies).. and good luck if you are not sufficiently/adequately preparing for UPpity... you will likely need it.. unless of course, you won't need it if you do end up getting lucky... perhaps? perhaps?

I will have to "think about" that one.   [aka real winkening emoji]


Technically those are called "return carriages."   [tongue stuck out emoji, real one]


And no.  Nothing be stuck.  Since I am a cooperative kind of a guy, I am going to answer your seemingly dumb question.


That be called "artistic interpretation."


Whoaza!!!!!!!  Zing!!!!!!



Ouch!!!!!



Do I need an emoji or a gif here to show my emotions?  #Askingforafriend


Why so serious?

I am not too much of an Elliot Wave and/or technical analysis fan - especially since many times, those kinds of wave theories are a bit off base, since they likely fail/refuse to account for some of the specific immature aspects of bitcoin, including the likely exponential s-curve adoption component that is based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects...

but anyhow, are you suggesting that my assertion of a likely deadman's zone between $55k and $80k is supported by Elliot Wave principles.

I did click on your link and I do see that your future projection of wave 4-5 does seem to show the BTC price passing through the previous ATH.. in a very similar way as I have characterized.. .but still my ideas are no way even attempting to incorporate Elliot Wave ideas or even to say that anyone should be attempting to trade much if any of their BTC based on Elliot Wave.

Planned obsolescence is O.k. when it comes to bitcoin hardware wallets? 

I was thinking that a hardware device should have way more than 10 years shelf-life.. maybe even 30 years, even though sure maybe the battery would need to be changed a few times.. and yeah, maybe we might end up porting our coins (I mean access to the private keys to some other device - but would we want to have to move our coins for the mere sake of it?  maybe just leave our coins in the same spot?)


What he said.

 


Of course, even if I may well have been assuming that a hardware wallet would last much longer than 10 years, and maybe even 20-30 years, I was never considering that there would not be a back-up seed held in some kind of way(s).... and yeah, maybe if someone might ONLY be interacting with his/her hardware wallet once every couple of years (to verify funds and perhaps to verify that it still works and that s/he still knows how to use it), there may be some benefits in terms of keeping the amount of maintenance low and perhaps ONLY doing the bare minimum.. which is just making sure that everything still works.

For sure, if there might be some security vulnerabilities that might develop (or come to be known) at some point down the road, maybe we might presume that the more years that pass, the more likely that security vulnerabilities would be found out in regards to older devices and perhaps become vulnerable in certain kinds of scenarios - maybe also never presuming that losing physical access to the device would allow much sense of security and/or perhaps cause urgent needs to actually move the coins if that kind of a loss of access were to be discovered.

da fuk haiku'ing?





makenings me feel goodie.







Like flowerening.








numero 2



Roses are reddish




violets are bluening




WO is orange

Yeah, but so what?

Any fool knows that those squigglies can be drawn to show that a pattern seems to be showing itself.

Also known as:  "past performance does not guarantee future results."

You need more explanation..

Oh but wait?  You haven't said shit.  you just repeated what someone else said.

Do you happen to have any ideas of your own?  Even dumb ones?


Waiting....




Waiting.....







waiting..






come on












What you were saying is relevant to everyone.  You don't have to be a miner because if mining death spiral were to happen, we would all be screwed.


One thing to make many of us MOAR happier, is that we have already seen how incentives play out.


It's called the difficulty adjustment.


Have you heard of it?


Yes, and some are going to stop, too.


Yes.  I got it.


You never know about Phil, but I imagine he already knows about the difficulty adjustment, even if he is having some problems with the shrinking mining reward and he is also having some difficulties with price following hash rate.. and maybe some other bitcoin related things..

but since he laughed at my post, I get the sense that he understands difficulty adjustment as it relates to the mining death spiral.. even though sure he might agree with you on some of the levels of what you are saying...


Why pick on phil?  This is not about phil.

 

Part of the criticism of OP throughout this thread has been that the data is more about minimum wage data provided the various countries, so the data is already inconsistent, but it also may well be skewed to the lowside.

So maybe your suggestion about average income in each country would be a way better way of attempting to be realistic - even though surely by attempting to focus on something like the lowest earners in any country (which probably is partly what minimum wage is supposed to reflect) there probably was some attempt to figure out how difficult it might be for the lowest wage earners in any country (and even around the world) to be able to even accumulate 1BTC..

or even lower amounts than 1 BTC since many of us realize that 1 BTC is likely a relatively high target anyhow in terms of normies being able to accumulate that amount of BTC. .but it has always been the case that the reasonable target levels have been going down further and further in terms of how many BTC any normal normie might reasonably expect to be able to accumulate without overdoing it... and recking himself....

Probably the ship for normies to reasonably and easily be able to accumulate 1BTC sailed in late 2020--- but surely it is a sliding scale, and like you suggested goldkingcoiner with persistence and perhaps various kinds of resourcefulness and creativity, there could still be various ways that normies and/or low income people might still be able to accumulate 1 BTC.. even though many of us likely expect (as has already been repeated several times in this thread) that with the passage of time, such feat of accumulating 1 whole BTC is likely going to be relegated to the richest of the society... especially if we are talking about measuring on the individual level....

And in regards to your example of pooling resources in order to be able to accumulate BTC, I suppose that merely goes to various ways that groups of people might figure out how to be innovative in their BTC accumulation efforts and hopefully not ending up experiencing too many rug pulls within such group-oriented processes - and such rug pulling events are not likely to stop, which sometimes does end up resulting in some folks being able to accumulate larger quantities of BTC for their own personal stash than they would have had otherwise been able to accomplish.. and some folks respect those people who get rich, whether by hook or by crook.. once they got the money  (BTC in this case) they may well be able to put on airs of being a respectable citizen of the community, with his/her 1 BTC while the rest of the community might have peanuts (I mean don't we call those satoshis?... get them while you can. and get as many as you can, without overdoing it, while you can.)

Did you actually read the thread?

How about other related threads?

As far as I can see this thread is active, even though OP is from 2016 and surely Lauda has not been around the forum for a few years.. but still maybe you should describe which aspects of OP or other parts of the thread that you want to know about?  Yes, maybe you do not need to read the whole thread.. but still.

How about describing efforts that you made to research into the topic, and also providing some details regarding how much experience you have in regards to buying BTC and the various ways that you might store it - including some ideas regarding how much you might want to store in various places (of course, you should not be giving up information regarding your own BTC holdings, but just to give some ideas regarding your own situation)... and maybe some guys might want to delve into such vague and incomplete scenarios, even though you seemed to have had done little to no actual work - which appears that you might not be a serious poster.. or at least not someone that anyone here should take seriously.. or maybe I am already treating you too seriously by actually responding.

The devil is still in the details Wind_FURY.... because each of us likely have time-based considerations, but also just buying on the dip in itself is a price-based consideration. 

So, even though it does not hurt to throw out those ideas, each of us are likely attempting to weigh both types of considerations and to employ those into our overall approach to BTC whether it is in regards to the way that we accumulate BTC or in regards to the extent that we might consider various points that we might sell.. and sometimes we are going to have to consider both time and price at the same time, because if the BTC price shot up to $1 million within this calendar year, it might cause some folks to take some value off the table because the BTC price seems to be unsustainable to be shooting up so rapidly, but if the BTC price slowly goes up for the next 4-10 years and maybe it reaches $1 million in that time frame, and maybe it does not, but the mere passage of time, could well contribute to changes in our own personal ways of thinking about how we might want to manage our BTC portfolio, even if the BTC price reaches the same amount of $1 million, and we are not being irrational or panicking merely because we change our strategy based on the differences in the timeline that ends up playing out in those two different scenarios that I suggested that either of which could end up happening...

I don't know if we need "cryptocurrency" payment systems, but if you are referring to bitcoin, then perhaps?  There are always ongoing developments in bitcoin, and surely there can be questions regarding how user-friendly some of the systems happen to be, while at the same time, there are some battles that seem to ongoingly be taking place, and so sometimes normies might be reluctant to attempt to integrate some of the systems that might interact with legacy systems because of a lot of variance in terms of regulatory matters..  A vast majority of countries are likely not even close to as open as El Salvador in terms of trying to keep regulatory obstacles to a minimum, and so there can be other solutions that allow for bitcoin transactions to happen without necessarily interacting with legacy systems, and maybe that might be where crypto could come into the scene.. but I hate to imply that shitcoins are even needed when bitcoin has systems that are being built and tested in lightning systems, but surely there may well be experiments that are needed when it comes to both user-friendliness and achieving higher levels of adoptions that might relate to wider sections of the population getting tempted to use various bitcoin systems.. beyond merely storing value in it.. and even storing value is not a bad thing.. but I get your point in regards to usage potentially helping bring awareness and potentially getting more normies involved in bitcoin and incentivized to learn more about it.


You may or may not be able to buy BTC back for a price that is less than the amount that you sold, including at around $100k, so any calculation that you make in regards to whether and/or how much you sell should include considerations that you may or may not be able to buy back the amount that you sold, especially for cheaper than the price that you sold them at.


I do not disagree with any of the thrust of what you are saying sokani, yet there can be ways to attempt to do all of the things that you discuss including having a regular DCA and then having various amounts of cash that is in reserves in case the BTC price happens to drop and to have buy orders at various price locations on the way down (or to watch and to conduct those buy orders manually).  Accordingly currently the 200-week moving average is currently at $27,098, and so the extent to which we might get BTC prices below the 200-week moving average beyond spikes do not seem to be high probability events, yet of course, there are a variety of scenarios that could end up playing out that are not easy to calculate in advance, so in several senses, it remains a decently prudent and practical strategy to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios while realizing that whenever we attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, we are going to end up somewhat diluting our BTC investment.. and so we have to attempt to plan and to employ a strategy that is sufficiently balanced for ourselves in such ways that we ar not going to be disappointed with our attempts to do the best that we can with the resources that we happen to have.