Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I was not expecting the price of Bitcoin to stay at this price when the halving is approaching very soon. I do not know if we will see major movement by next year but we usually see a increase just before a halving. I would expect to see it already. Does any one have ideas why we are struggling when we have not in previous years?

Every year (or cycle or whatever) comes out differently, and even if they might kind of look a like, we need to be careful in terms of putting too many expectations regarding how things might play out in terms of their specifics.

If you think about it, your description of where we are at (versus where we have been) is not even correct.

Do you recall that we spent a pretty solid 2 months that were mostly in the lower $16ks?

It seems that our current position shows a bounce from that point, no?

It's not enough of a bounce for you?

Our current spot is pretty damned well in the range of 50% to 80% up from that 2 month low.. and we have been here largely since early to mid March.. so that is getting close to 5 months.

Hey, it is not even guaranteed that we will go up from here, but it still seems to be a great place to be stacking sats.

Remember in 2015 we had spent about 8 months in the mid $200s and then we spent another in early 2016 for 6-7 months mostly in the lower $400s.. and yeah people were pretty depressed  each time that these stagnant periods happen.. we can go through each of the cycles and see those kind of things, and yeah the time periods do vary, but still they seem long (and uncertain) while we are going through them, and surely if you are thinking about the 3.5x boost that we got between April and June 2019, that was absolutely amazing, and surely it could happen again, but you cannot count on those kinds of wonderful and spectacular events that really fuck up a lot of bears. Sure we want to see those events, but you are unrealistic if you are putting high odds of those kinds of amazing things to happen.

Don't get me wrong, there are pretty good chances that at some point bears are going to get reckt as fuck, but who knows when it is going to happen or if it is going to happen, but I would not write off such a bear fucking.. even if we cannot really have any confidence in what price range or how it might be triggered and/or when.  We know the holding the ball under the water meme.. and yeah, the ball could stay held under the water much longer than any rational person can stay solvent.. including another couple of years (doesn't seem likely, but it could end up playing out that way).  Strong hands gotta be prepared for anything .

I recall that you had said that you had bought some more BTC, and if you have been buying in the last year-ish, you should be in really good shape right now in terms of the supplementation of your earlier BTC purchases (I cannot remember if you did them in 2021 or was it early 2022.. maybe it was during the mid-year 2021 dip), and not even needing a doubling or a tripling of the BTC price in order to be in pretty solid place in terms of your own current BTC holdings.. which I recall had been in the mid $30ks.. but if you had been aggressively buying BTC in the last year (even $100 per week), then you may well could have brought your average purchase price down a few thousand, perhaps?  

I am not exactly trying to get into your details, even though sometimes it does help to work with some numerical frameworks, even though almost no matter what any of us do, there can be ways to frame the situation in ways to suggest "I could have done better." blah blah blah..

And, we can ONLY do what we can do.. and we can ONLY act now, if there might be something that we might want to do now in terms of buying or planning buys or even other less recommendable strategies, as you know that I don't really recommend anything except buying especially if your holdings might either be in the negative or barely into profits, if they were to happen to be in profits.

What you were saying is relevant to everyone.  You don't have to be a miner because if mining death spiral were to happen, we would all be screwed.


One thing to make many of us MOAR happier, is that we have already seen how incentives play out.


It's called the difficulty adjustment.


Have you heard of it?

Even though I am a novice, yeah I heard that. But, I don't know how it works. I am not in a rush to learn these things overnight. But, I won't mind if you take your time with a rusty pipe.

but since he laughed at my post, I get the sense that he understands difficulty adjustment as it relates to the mining death spiral.. even though sure he might agree with you on some of the levels of what you are saying...

Why pick on phil?  This is not about phil.

 

Well, I admit that arguing with JJG is not an easy job being somewhat newbie in WO. So, trying to pick Phil on my side for some kind of support   I hope you don't mind. I believe he has greater knowledge about difficulty adjustment or whatever you say about mining things which I don't have. So, I won't be able to answer you back if you start writing these things. Now it's obvious why I pick Phil.  

Maybe it is not a bad tactic?  

We all have to start somewhere, and I am not sure where to point you.  

There are a lot of basic things about bitcoin and a variety of resources, and there are even threads that are aimed at some of those basic ideas that have links contained therein too.

The difficulty adjustment is basic, but it is surely one of the most amazing things about bitcoin, too.. ... and I don't even have enough of an ability to explain it, even though there are a lot of people who do great jobs explaining those kinds of things.

Anyhow, maybe you can just save your post, and then you go and look up some issues in relation to the difficulty adjustment, and then respond to your own pot or maybe provide us with your information that links to the other sources?  

I am sure guys here would not shirk away from commenting on your comments that are attempting to bring up substantive ideas about mining, especially if they are grappling with actual mining dynamics rather than your just making shit up in regards to the mining death spiral that does not work out in reality as much when you actually attempt to account for the actual bitcoin reality that contains a difficulty adjustments about every two weeks (every 2016 blocks).

You can even watch it here:

Latest Block:   801132  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.9365%  (781 / 789.40 expected, 8.4 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   53911173001054.59                            
Current Difficulty:   52328312063443.84                            
Next Difficulty:   between 51791367219011 and 51991573996741
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0261% and -0.6435%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 8:39 AM  (-2.9361%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 9, 2023 at 10:54 AM  (in 8d 14h 41m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 9, 2023 at 12:16 PM  (in 8d 16h 2m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 15m 22s and 14d 3h 36m 42s

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


and here:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

Of course, there are other places that you can watch various aspects of the dynamics of the difficulty adjustments, try to understand it MOAR better and to see what bitcoin-informed people are saying about such an eighth wonder of the world.

BTC price ‘fireworks’ after monthly close? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week.


Source.

I would have rather that you would have summarized something about the article.. including potentially highlighting the 5 things.. but I sent an smerit anyhow.. even though you probably didn't deserve it..


hahahahahhahaha

 

[1714739624]

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[1714739624]

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[1714739624]

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[1714739624]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Im gonna attempt to explain mining difficulty with a metaphor

You and a lot of other people are standing at a bar, the queue is exactly one person deep. The bar tender goes around the queue take drinks orders and fulfilling them let’s say clockwise. When you get your drink you stay in the queue and drink it. Difficulty represents the time you have to wait to order your drinks. If a new person joins the queue you will have to wait longer and ultimately drink less in an evening. If a person leaves the queue you will wait less time and be able to drink more in the evening. This scales up(adding to the queue) and down(dropping from the queue). There will also be the few alcoholics who will never leave the queue, and they want more booze than they can imagine wanting.

Is my understanding correct?

I think the joke(miners death spiral) is that those alcoholics will always be there, drinking from the firehouse or waiting patiently for the bartender to serve them.

I doubt that this explanation is complete, but it seems to be in the ballpark of something kind of decent.

Let's say if the guy is waiting for his next drink but people keep joining in the cue, so there are ways that he can shorten his time or stop his time from getting longer, and what would that be?  Maybe he has to bring a BIG thug friend with him, like a guy from the Mafia, then he gets back to his original time, even if there are more people waiting, he still has to wait, but the fact that he brought some extra muscle into the mix is going to work for him for a while, until the next guy brings his mafia friend.. etc etc.

and every so often (after 2016 drinks are served) the bartenders are added or subtracted based on whether drinks were served every 10 second or if it took longer.  

Whatever.. I am fucking this up.. it was your analogy in the first place.. and I am just trying to suggest that there was something incomplete about it.

[edited out]

No not quite correct.

The wait adjustment for drinks in your example is close to instant.  In mining btc it is as long as 17 days.

Well for the analogy, use 10 seconds rather than 10 minutes.   The time does not have to be exactly the same in order for the analogy to be potentially workable.. even though it seems that the analogy has other flaws.

SEC Asked Coinbase to Halt Trading of All Cryptos, Except Bitcoin.

this one is from Reuters:

SEC asked Coinbase to trade only in bitcoin before suing crypto exchange
https://www.reuters.com/technology/sec-asked-coinbase-stop-trading-cryptocurrencies-other-than-bitcoin-prior-suing-2023-07-31/

with this obvious stand of the SEC on crypto security tokens, Bitcoin should double against these scams within an eye blink...  if the market was rational ... but well...

Don't be like that....if bitcoin is strong it does not matter if there are other 'tokens'.
Besides, there are other tokens that are similar to bitcoin in the way they are issued with some of them mentioned here from time to time.
Think about it: if they "cancel" everything else, bitcoin would certainly be next in US, probably for decades...just like trading in gold was.

afaik nobody wants to cancel anything there.  But if you issue or sell a security, you have to follow the law in this day and age.
And the Howey Test is clear & easy to understand. If you choose to ignore it, accept the consequences.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the wild west times of this market, and made money.  But I'm not too sad that these days come to an end, and that scammers cannot fleece newbs left and right by selling lies and shit anymore.

Sure there are coins that are obviously no securities. But I don't expect much from a federal agency. And I think it takes time for them to work through thousands of coins in order to decide what they are.  Luckily everyone know Bitcoin quite well nowadays.

Even though I don't really like how shitcoins have exploited various systems, and some of the exchanges, including Coinbase went down a path of blindly listing every piece of shit that exists, I still have trouble cheering for the SEC in these kinds of matters. 

But hey, whatever, you do you.

[edited out]

Yeah I think we range 10 to 17 or 18 days a jump.
Most are between 12 and 16.

His example is kind of poor.

As being an alcoholic drinker is not being a profitable miner.

I make profits consistently since 2018 every month I made some coin above expenses.

Calling miners alcoholics is saying miners lose consistently. The reality is we don't.

You are taking the analogy too personally Phil.

Work with it.

Work with it.

For sure the analogy has flaws, but calling miners alcoholics is not one of the flaws.


#justsaying

Using you bewildering analogy...the question is: will there be enough "alcoholics" to secure the chain properly?
Phil posited that in 80 years there would not be.
Personally, I don't know as we NEVER had more than a few weeks difficulty decline and btw, those periods were always the local bottom (so far), like Oct-Dec 2018 (cycle low), then China ban (May-July 2021) and summer bottom.

The caveat is that the current fee structure won't work in 2080 or even 2056 or even 2052.

There will be changes or BTC will not fair well. As LTC/DOGE is structured to last better than BTC.

Obviously I am not the only one that sees these issues. I only wish I could stick around to see how it shakes out.

Yeah.. stick around and find out that you weren't quite the Nostradamus that you wanted to be.


What else is new?


 

[edited out]

Hold your horses there cowboy  I think am getting closer to an understanding.

In my analogy the alcoholics left at the bar are miners who don’t leave,  the core, like when massive amounts of hash rate turned off there so far seems to be a core of miners who keep mining or a % of hash rate. If core stay then block reward share increases  for them because the difficulty goes down(less miners competing ) I can’t comment if they are profitable or not but would assume they are or they would be part of the group who turned their gear off. The losers are people who have left then though right? They stopped receiving their share of reward.

In the analogy the bar tender is the blocks, the evening is the epoch. The drinkers are the miners. The drinks are the reward.

Also apologies if this a trigger to any recovering alcoholics it’s just where my mind went when thinking about mining difficulty.

Edit: spelling

The more you defend your analogy.. the more it seems to suck... even though it is better than nothing, and surely it is better than what Learn Bitcoin had come up with on his own.

 

[philipma1957]

I was not expecting the price of Bitcoin to stay at this price when the halving is approaching very soon. I do not know if we will see major movement by next year but we usually see a increase just before a halving. I would expect to see it already. Does any one have ideas why we are struggling when we have not in previous years?

Every year (or cycle or whatever) comes out differently, and even if they might kind of look a like, we need to be careful in terms of putting too many expectations regarding how things might play out in terms of their specifics.

If you think about it, your description of where we are at (versus where we have been) is not even correct.

Do you recall that we spent a pretty solid 2 months that were mostly in the lower $16ks?

It seems that our current position shows a bounce from that point, no?

It's not enough of a bounce for you?

Our current spot is pretty damned well in the range of 50% to 80% up from that 2 month low.. and we have been here largely since early to mid March.. so that is getting close to 5 months.

Hey, it is not even guaranteed that we will go up from here, but it still seems to be a great place to be stacking sats.

Remember in 2015 we had spent about 8 months in the mid $200s and then we spent another in early 2016 for 6-7 months mostly in the lower $400s.. and yeah people were pretty depressed  each time that these stagnant periods happen.. we can go through each of the cycles and see those kind of things, and yeah the time periods do vary, but still they seem long (and uncertain) while we are going through them, and surely if you are thinking about the 3.5x boost that we got between April and June 2019, that was absolutely amazing, and surely it could happen again, but you cannot count on those kinds of wonderful and spectacular events that really fuck up a lot of bears. Sure we want to see those events, but you are unrealistic if you are putting high odds of those kinds of amazing things to happen.

Don't get me wrong, there are pretty good chances that at some point bears are going to get reckt as fuck, but who knows when it is going to happen or if it is going to happen, but I would not write off such a bear fucking.. even if we cannot really have any confidence in what price range or how it might be triggered and/or when.  We know the holding the ball under the water meme.. and yeah, the ball could stay held under the water much longer than any rational person can stay solvent.. including another couple of years (doesn't seem likely, but it could end up playing out that way).  Strong hands gotta be prepared for anything .

I recall that you had said that you had bought some more BTC, and if you have been buying in the last year-ish, you should be in really good shape right now in terms of the supplementation of your earlier BTC purchases (I cannot remember if you did them in 2021 or was it early 2022.. maybe it was during the mid-year 2021 dip), and not even needing a doubling or a tripling of the BTC price in order to be in pretty solid place in terms of your own current BTC holdings.. which I recall had been in the mid $30ks.. but if you had been aggressively buying BTC in the last year (even $100 per week), then you may well could have brought your average purchase price down a few thousand, perhaps?  

I am not exactly trying to get into your details, even though sometimes it does help to work with some numerical frameworks, even though almost no matter what any of us do, there can be ways to frame the situation in ways to suggest "I could have done better." blah blah blah..

And, we can ONLY do what we can do.. and we can ONLY act now, if there might be something that we might want to do now in terms of buying or planning buys or even other less recommendable strategies, as you know that I don't really recommend anything except buying especially if your holdings might either be in the negative or barely into profits, if they were to happen to be in profits.

What you were saying is relevant to everyone.  You don't have to be a miner because if mining death spiral were to happen, we would all be screwed.


One thing to make many of us MOAR happier, is that we have already seen how incentives play out.


It's called the difficulty adjustment.


Have you heard of it?

Even though I am a novice, yeah I heard that. But, I don't know how it works. I am not in a rush to learn these things overnight. But, I won't mind if you take your time with a rusty pipe.

but since he laughed at my post, I get the sense that he understands difficulty adjustment as it relates to the mining death spiral.. even though sure he might agree with you on some of the levels of what you are saying...

Why pick on phil?  This is not about phil.

 

Well, I admit that arguing with JJG is not an easy job being somewhat newbie in WO. So, trying to pick Phil on my side for some kind of support   I hope you don't mind. I believe he has greater knowledge about difficulty adjustment or whatever you say about mining things which I don't have. So, I won't be able to answer you back if you start writing these things. Now it's obvious why I pick Phil.  

Maybe it is not a bad tactic?  

We all have to start somewhere, and I am not sure where to point you.  

There are a lot of basic things about bitcoin and a variety of resources, and there are even threads that are aimed at some of those basic ideas that have links contained therein too.

The difficulty adjustment is basic, but it is surely one of the most amazing things about bitcoin, too.. ... and I don't even have enough of an ability to explain it, even though there are a lot of people who do great jobs explaining those kinds of things.

Anyhow, maybe you can just save your post, and then you go and look up some issues in relation to the difficulty adjustment, and then respond to yourself or maybe provide us with your information that links to the other sources.  I am sure guys here would not shirk away from commenting on your comments that are attempting to bring up substantive ideas, especially if they are grappling with actual dynamics rather than your just making shit up in regards to the mining spiral that does not work out in reality as much when you attempt to account for the actual bitcoin that contains a difficulty adjustment about every two weeks (every 2016 blocks).

You can even watch it here:

Latest Block:   801132  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.9365%  (781 / 789.40 expected, 8.4 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   53911173001054.59                            
Current Difficulty:   52328312063443.84                            
Next Difficulty:   between 51791367219011 and 51991573996741
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0261% and -0.6435%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 8:39 AM  (-2.9361%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 9, 2023 at 10:54 AM  (in 8d 14h 41m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 9, 2023 at 12:16 PM  (in 8d 16h 2m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 15m 22s and 14d 3h 36m 42s

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


and here:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

Of course, there are other places that you can watch various aspects of the dynamics of the difficulty adjustments, try to understand it MOAR better and to see what bitcoin-informed people are saying about such an eight wonder of the world.

BTC price ‘fireworks’ after monthly close? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week.


Source.

I would have rather that you would have summarized something about the article.. including potentially highlighting the 5 things.. but I sent an smerit anyhow.. even though you probably didn't deserve it..


hahahahahhahaha

 

from yahoo finance

2015 to 2016 1/2 ing
Jan  1  320
feb  5  227
mar 5  272
apr  2  247
may 7 229
jun  4 225
jul  2  258
aug 6  281
sept 3 229
oct   1 236
nov  5 408
dec  3  359
Jan  7  430
Feb 4  370
Mar 3  423
Apr 7  423
May 5 446
Jun 2  536
Jul  7  678

July 9 663 1/2ing price


2023 to 2024

Jan 1 16600
Feb 1 23700
Mar 1 23600
Apr 1 28400
May1 28000
Jun 1 26800
Jul  1 30500
Aug 1 29300


if this pattern matches 2015-2016

We hit 42-44k in nov 2023
and 69-71k near the 1/2 ing next year

since we have been at 42 and 44 and 69 k I do not think it is unreasonable to see it again.

[Biodom]

I got it...Mr Market for some unknown reason wants to royally piss off M. Saylor by hovering over his bitcoin average buying price (almost exactly).
That explains the 29.3+/-0.2K conundrum (or flatline if you like this term better).
No matter, MSTR is still "flying".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

Oh fuck everything about this $28k action. Bah.

Shenanigans.

[OgNasty]

Oh fuck everything about this $28k action. Bah.

Shenanigans.

Seems a little like things are starting to break down. Usually that’s a buy the dip moment. I guess we’ll see…

[Negotiation]

Breaking 🚨 :- China 🇨🇳  to Develop Blockchain Infrastructure in Shanghai by 2025

After cracking down #bitcoin mining and other crypto realated activites, 📈 China 🇨🇳 again wants to become crypto HUB

Specifically, China is set to develop a blockchain infrastructure in Shanghai by the year 2025.

Nevertheless, the official government update stated that the plan is to “strengthen the application of blockchain in the real economy,

The country is executing similar actions in various cities.



Source.

[Learn Bitcoin]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

I am unsure if I have anything to do with the current and next difficulties.
But the source you provided has explained the difficulty and how it is calculated.
There was an interesting bug report and fun fact as well.

Thanks for the source, BTW.

[Out of mind]

Good Morning BitcoinBTC

again break doWn..
Golden opportunity to buy..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Xinarae*]

Good Morning BitcoinBTC

again break doWn..
Golden opportunity to buy..

BTCBitcoiner always running with golden time ....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[FinePoine0]

NEW: Bitcoin Volatility close to its lowest EVER!


Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Learn Bitcoin]

A friendly interruption, buddy!
Three in a row is enough. Wait for Phil

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com