Got it from vircurex, but the actual hashrate isn't the point, nor is the growing hashrate of LTC. The point to my mind is that BTC difficulty is low and may be dropping further with the delay of ASICs from two of the three companies.

As for estimating the chances of success from the three companies, while I agree it's subjective, I reserve that call for myself.

Avalon:
At this point I believe Avalon will be first out of the gate though their first order was small(300ish?). The odds that Avalon is a scam is near 0% to my mind. I do not care for their choice of 110nm or the stand alone aspect of their product, but I do understand their choice in both instances.

BTCFPGA/Bitcoinasic.net:
Next up is BTCFPGA in my mind. Yeah they had a big setback and Tom was AOL with some undisclosed family matters, but I believe their issues can and will be addressed. This company has/had a good reputation for meeting timelines/specs. Also they're the cheapest per Gh, and now by a significant margin. Very low chance they're a scam to my mind < 10%.

BFL:
I believe they will be last despite announcing first. They do not yet have chips and the chips are coming from Asia. They've announced flaws with their past chip revisions and then retracted and said they just wanted to make them more perfect. Repeated delays and a general lack of straight answers as well as a history of delays and missed specs makes me doubt this company can pull everything together before either of the others. Highest chance they're a scam, but still < 25% IMO.

Lastly, though I did find the exchanges between Tom and Inaba/Josh rather disturbing and unprofessional I do not see evidence that Tom reacts this way to customers or potential customers, rather he's very friendly and personable when not involved in an exchange with Josh. I've spoken to Tom on the phone and I trust my instincts, he'll come through. Inaba/Josh on the other hand treats nearly anyone and everyone with disdain and contempt. I cannot do business with this company as long as they employ such a man as their COO.
 

Because of this:



...also I don't believe each company has an equal 33% chance of shipping first or of being a scam.

Agreed. Not ready to pull the plug just yet, though I've thought about it many times. I'd pull the plug in a heartbeat if I didn't still believe I've ordered from the right company. I have to admit though that Avalon looks better every day.

Wait...you're willing to bet that banks WILL NOT inflate a currency into oblivion? Where do I sign up to bet against you? Interesting idea, but I don't see banks going for it if they cannot use inflation as a hidden tax on the unawares.

Something has happened, I sent money to BTCFPGA as did a lot of other people...but, yeah GPUs still work and if you have low/zero power costs and/or can benefit from the heat they generate then mining something with them still may make sense. I'm still mining with GPUs at this time, though between BFL, BTCFPGA, Avalon, and the Mayan calendar I think it's safe to say the end is near for the vast majority of GPU BTC miners.

Correct. No case, no power supply. It is...well...bASIC.

The fund I manage on litecoinglobal has public portfolio enabled without delay, but since it's charter enables me to purchase outside of litecoinglobal and I currently have assets at both cryptostocks and btct.co(w/ public portfolio), automatic NAV calculation will not work and would just be confusing.

It's not exactly surprising if some folks with BFL ads in their sigs don't want to hear about delays in product shipping or skeptical posts about shipping schedule revisions.

Uh yeah, would that I were as calm and cool as this guy.






These are the personal attacks aimed at just me in only the last 3 pages. Yeah I want to send this guy $$$.

This is similar to your nonsensical posts about working through Thanksgiving. Nevermind that according to you, BFL didn't have working chips at the time and still doesn't have working chips nearly two months after their first shipping date has come and gone. It doesn't deter you from deceiving more miners and yammering about possible maybe potentially fuzzy late December shipping date fairy tales. In a couple weeks you'll again post up some drivel about how the new clock buffers are on back order or your dog ate the firmware and therefore you just can't quite make that end of December shipping dream come true, but HOPEFULLY possibly the 5th or 6th week of January will be it for REALZ.  

Try to stay on topic Josh. Your attempts at deflection are ridiculous. Perhaps looking at the thread title will help?

Can the angry personal attacks Mr. BFL spokesperson and just answer the question please.

Do you need the question rephrased?

Arrogance is so pretty...particularly when so clearly unjustified. So you included all your usual CYA crap that makes what you say meaningless as usual? Did you not see the word REALISTIC in there? Do you have any idea at all what the word "integrity" means? You have a responsibility to honestly assess your company's shipping schedule and release that information to the people that have trusted you with their money. Yet you spew rainbows and unicorn farts at every single opportunity.

You HONESTLY believe BFL will ship by the end of the year, yet you'll not have confirmed working chips until at least 11 Dec 2012? True or false?

You use a lot of words and say nothing of substance, just a whole lot of empty assurances, meaningless projections, and a heaping helping of disclaimers.

How come when the competition ran into a problem the company owner manned up and said GDit, I F'd up and I'm sorry. We screwed the pooch and it will derail our project for at least 90 days. Here's where you request a refund.

...but when BFL announces one of their many delays it always seems to be just a minor speed bump easily absorbed by our ample padding. At least until the new shipping date arrives, then it'll just be a couple more weeks...etc. Yet we know they don't have chips nor will they have chips two months after their initial shipping date has passed. That ain't just a minor snag, that's a list of who's being fired first at most companies.

So THIS is inaccurate?


...and this:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=112700.380

Not digging around in your crap forums unless I get some free koolaid too. Frankly you've been wrong(lied) about projected shipping of BFL products so many times I have no idea if/when you guys will produce anything aside from hot air.

You're just too clever. Like the mofo'n Perry Mason of vaporware.

What do you mean "get rolling again"? They were rolling at some point? I've heard about some perty perty cases, some proposed clock buffers, some defective chips that weren't defective and not much else. I guess I'm just skeptical about someone's projections when that person never seems to be right. I do realize nothing has been promised and the wording has been softened from YES SHIPPING IN OCTOBER...REALLY! to we hope to ship all batch 1 pre-orders by the end of January 31 2013(unlikely).


None could ever be so cool as you bud.

Nice call ignoring the subject material and going for the personal attacks...again.

Plainly. Hey Josh said so...must be true. His track record of accuracy speaks for itself...um. He's either incompetent or spewing bs, and I don't think he's incompetent.

Just examine his newest stance fas. Those defective imperfect chips had to be respun so they're being shipped over sometime in the fuzzy week of the 11th...or later in December, but somehow magically BFL is going to get the new chips(which will of course be perfect), assemble units, test them and ship them before 12/31/12? I suspect there might be a problem.

They plainly never intended to ship in October or November. It's all just a bunch of lip service carefully disseminated to gobble up as much market share as possible and to keep those that pre-ordered from cancelling. Even BFL people cannot be so utterly incompetent that they've screwed the pooch twice in two outtings. Oops we missed the power estimates for our FPGA products by 400%...sorry. Please.

Well that's certainly working.