one final bump, and with that:

plonk, dearest OP

705 is the low point of the channel in my original post. 680 is a long-running daily EMA that has served me very well in the past 3 months. But please note: I didn't say we'll reach them. I said, *if* we get back to 730/720, and we *don't* find support there, I would expect those two points to be the next likely points of volume/possible support.

Way too high. Even dogecoin isn't a scam coin, and only 'stupid' insofar as it probably won't be alive in a year or two from now. But that's the beauty of our little experiment we have going here: the market will decide that, not forum censorship (except for the most vile cases of scams, of course, which should be removed)

Looks like we'll stay in the channel a bit longer, huh?

I think the real question right now is whether we'll stay above the (recent) low point, 720-730 (bitstamp). If we don't go near that level in the next day or two, we're fine I think. Probably back to boredom at 800 then

On the other hand, if we do approach 730/720, I expect things to accelerate a bit, mainly for the psychological reason that we're running the risk of a series of lower highs *and* lower lows. Next stop will probably be action around 705 (lowest point of the channel above, as of now), then 680 (long running trend acting as point of high volume support since at least December).

Anything below that is speculation right now, and would bring us back into December 18th territory... and I don't see that happening right now.

EDIT: just took a look at the 6h charts and momentum and CMF look *really* ugly right now. I'll upgrade revisiting 730/720 from 'not betting on it' to 'could be, could be' ^_^

I stopped trading on bitfinex (except for some toy amounts) a while ago, so I'm only peripherally following this... can you tell me if there were any *actual* losses incurred to users after the rollback, or are the "losses" all in the form of "missed profits"? (makes some difference, IMO)

+1

Very close to my own sentiment. There are scam coins, sure, but feeling threatened by alts altogether is just wrong for serious btc supporters. It's a complex crypto ecosystem we're building here, with btc right in the center (for now... might be different at some point in the far future, though not that likely IMO), so kneejerk reactions to alts are ill advised.

Seems to be down for everyone.

Any word from user bitcoinwisdom yet?

no, bitfinex screwup. there's a reason i do most of my trading on bitstamp lately, instead of going through bitfinex.

in my experience, via sepa, between 2 and 5 business days.

yes, but still very much possible that we'll end up like we did after the 27th: below 800, but above 700, and slowly moving up again on lower volume. If we break through 700 tonight though, all bets are off.

Why not? At some point it will have to break out, up or down, no matter which direction.

Although I will say this much: I won't go as far as calling it (as MatTheCat does) "manipulation", but it seems to me that every high volume movement *downwards* (and tbh, those are the only high volume movements we see on the Western exchanges for the past 2, 3 weeks) is followed by a slow trickling of buys, on much lower volume, bringing price back up to where we started before the dump. Assuming for a second it is in fact an attempt by some large market players to stabilize the market, this strategy only works because volume is so ridiculously low at the moment... as in: it's not going to be something going on indefinitely. By the way, if you're sceptical about the initial observation (higher volume on the way down than on the way up), 6h, 12h CMF is picking it up quite nicely, as it should.

Alright, so here's the take home message: There's enough evidence for me to believe that we should trade below 800 soon, and stay there for the time being, but I am in fact cautious putting my money accordingly because of the evidence I see for a counter-balancing force at work. If this force really exists (in the sense of a single or small group of large participants) I would expect them to get to work *right now* though: bringing price above 800 and keeping it there, otherwise I'd say they run a risk of downward momentum getting too large to be contained.

(*sloppily drawn* channel, I might add)





Guess we'll see tomorrow if we break out from it... doesn't take much, ~810 (bitstamp) is all that's needed.

For someone who, just a few posts above, feels justified to rip others a new one for "pretending to know it all", you sure like to pretend to know it all yourself ("anyone who doesn't see price is being propped up artificially is an IMBECILE I tell you" /paraphrase). No, no, don't strain yourself, I already know your answer: you're objectively right, the others are delusional bulls. It's just that simple

Never got all the negativity about the foundation. Sure, they're far from perfect, and there's a vibe of unnecessary secrecy, but by and large, I support them (and became a member as a result). It's a balancing act between a myriad of interests, and I think so far they (and by "they" I mean Gavin) handled it rather well.

fascinating... and here I was, thinking gox price was largely irrelevant by now. silly me.

Haha, awesome find. Bit before my time, but love to see proudhon, adam, ElectricMucus have been like this for time immemorial

Hahaha, I love that guy. He posted in another thread I'm in (bitfinex on service discussion) as well. Also, looks like he actually went through my post history .... awww :3

He claims to be a married man with a family, while spouting some purposefully offensive drivel, but if you look at his phrasing and choice of words, he's more likely a  teenager or basement dwelling twenty-something.

In other words: a typical /b/tard, nothing serious.



Anyway, more interesting topic:

Remember when this thread was opened as an alternative to the 'mtgox wall observer', because people tended to care about gox price alone, ignoring the signs that the era of gox was over? I remember being pretty annoyed about their resistance to change, less than 6 months ago

Well... that became an obsolete worry faster than I expected in the end.

Don't feed the trolls please.

The guy you're responding to admitted in another thread that he just likes to talk big on random threads, while actually living in his parents basement and only being allowed to use the Internet after his overbearing mother-slash-half sister checked if he wiped well enough after he took a "potty break" as they call it in his grotesquely dysfunctional family.

Complete agreement with your last line. Medium /long term it would likely be bullish, but it might throw us into  a short period of selling frenzy, if it happens.

(1) gox has been declared dead before, and it always came back so far, like a fucking zombie, so with that in mind I'll express point (2) below with a caveat

(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.

(3) which, despite what people like to tell themselves about "it already being priced in", would be ugly for price. Think "fbi silk road seizure" ugly, at least short term.

(4) But: It will be *so* worth it