I worry adx doesn't recognize it as rally, while SS does and its overbought

Downtrend is comming, 290 is upper line hard resistance now (I wrote 300+ some time ago).



Currently fighting with local linear escape trend line

I reconize current activity as long term counter trend corrective move.

I said earlier, there are a lot of resistances at 250-350 area.

This rally isn't safe enough, I see a potential to 290-320 so far. And it is risky.


Thanks.

another opportunity - long target 290 with s/l 220. risk/reward 1:3

Looks broken. Escape from bear jail trendline. green ma200 resistance.



Yet still in longterm downtrend (not actually accurate lines due to sierra bugs)

Log long term downtrend (330-350) is next target on breaking this one. However no. Daily  Sma200 is next (290).

Sma200 and log downtrend form a significant resistance levels. Market will need a lot of momentum and time to break them I suppose.

I turned a bit optimistic because of:

1. Daily BB collapsed suggesting start of significant short term move.
2. Price went to its positive territory.
3. Daily adx also collapsed pointing to start of something point.
4. Weekly Bb collapses suggesting start of significant midterm move. Yet price is still in negative zone.
5. Daily and weekly macd show some sort of bullish hook last days.

So both short and mid term indicators shows some development in final stage, while macd hints it may be bullish. And then price tries to break not a small downtrend line. Another hint? Let's see.

In a bullish scenario there are a lot of resistances in 250-350 area:
* daily sma200
* weekly sma 10,20
* weekly upper bb
* long term log downtrend line

And I recognize them as hard. First and last are most hard. Trend may easily reverse on them.

So here is my small brainstorm on this situation.

This downtrend is going to break

Keep in mind they are ukrainians. However no information about real country of residence - Ukraine is under civil war. Everything could happen there.

I didn't say it goes to 30, just showed the chanel. Bottom could be anywhere from here down to 110 or even 30. And risk/reward ratio very bad on my 180 bids.

That level must show some resistance, but when I look at the empty space below in chanel - I shit my pants to leave bids there.

I cancel my bids at 170-190 hehe   some shit probably comming

did you discover price reactions in past on such divs? Need confirmation from another oscillator.

I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling



The longer term log channel has higher bottom, now is around $110

Gold h&s

I noticed there is incomplete data at bitcoinx missing data from Feb. This changes nothing. Mining looks saturated.

Missed out Bitcoin mining saturation which I waited for. Bitcoin difficulty is absolutely stable since 27 Nov 2014 (around 5 months) and is 40,007,470,271.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-average-90-days-chart/

Mining boom looks over.

Previous mining boom finished not far from 2011 $32 price high. After some period of difficulty stabilization - price collapsed and then entered long (long for that period - Feb...Aug 2012, i remember it was SOOO LONG that time) "silence phase", when price was relatively stable and fluctuated around $5.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/bitcoin-average-all-days-logarithmic-chart/

I compared not once current situation with 2011, as 2011 high was great wave I (that time) and ATH I recognize as historical wave I.

So what that difficulty and those times (those were the times!  ) tells me about what I want to tell all of you...

Taking all bullshit above, I predict! (Note - that was my market future projection since Aug 2012 which I kept in secret, that was my plan for next bubble that time. I posted it as bubble has gone and difficulty stabilized.).

1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required. If it will continue collapse, it should may it for one more year.
2. After a significant bottom I predict a very fucking long "silence phase". Collapse in 2011 took 6 months. Silence took also about 6 months - actually 5. So if we have collapsing time now for more than year - then silence phase should take not less of that time.

But silence phase is good for business. In 2012 it let great adoption of bitcoin payments when bitcoin price was so "stable" so "long".

I will recognize significant bottom at the following conditions.
1. Price will hit the weekly upper BB and then collapse into weekly 20 sma.
2. oh well, nothing more ))

Then it should collapse to weekly 20 sma and stay around there for all "silence phase".

So here is it - plan till 2016-2017. As I predicted right after ATH, this will be long and painful decline till 2016...2017.

Not impressed. Still under daily 10,20 sma, negative bb zone. H&S target not reached yet.

I said earlier, everything below ~260 looks good to buy in long term. Like everything below 10 was good in 2011. But time frames now wider.

I see only move above 310 will harm bearish scenario

According to strong bearish divergence on daily chart (which price didn't neutralized during weak rally) I see a pretty propabable H&S pattern