Analysis

[masterluc]

Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.

Log long term downtrend (330-350) is next target on breaking this one. However no. Daily  Sma200 is next (290).

Sma200 and log downtrend form a significant resistance levels. Market will need a lot of momentum and time to break them I suppose.

I turned a bit optimistic because of:

1. Daily BB collapsed suggesting start of significant short term move.
2. Price went to its positive territory.
3. Daily adx also collapsed pointing to start of something point.
4. Weekly Bb collapses suggesting start of significant midterm move. Yet price is still in negative zone.
5. Daily and weekly macd show some sort of bullish hook last days.

So both short and mid term indicators shows some development in final stage, while macd hints it may be bullish. And then price tries to break not a small downtrend line. Another hint? Let's see.

In a bullish scenario there are a lot of resistances in 250-350 area:
* daily sma200
* weekly sma 10,20
* weekly upper bb
* long term log downtrend line

And I recognize them as hard. First and last are most hard. Trend may easily reverse on them.

So here is my small brainstorm on this situation.

[1715149086]

1715149086

[lebing]

Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.

Log long term downtrend (330-350) is next target on breaking this one. However no. Daily  Sma200 is next (290).

Sma200 and log downtrend form a significant resistance levels. Market will need a lot of momentum and time to break them I suppose.

I turned a bit optimistic because of:

1. Daily BB collapsed suggesting start of significant short term move.
2. Price went to its positive territory.
3. Daily adx also collapsed pointing to start of something point.
4. Weekly Bb collapses suggesting start of significant midterm move. Yet price is still in negative zone.
5. Daily and weekly macd show some sort of bullish hook last days.

So both short and mid term indicators shows some development in final stage, while macd hints it may be bullish. And then price tries to break not a small downtrend line. Another hint? Let's see.

In a bullish scenario there are a lot of resistances in 250-350 area:
* daily sma200
* weekly sma 10,20
* weekly upper bb
* long term log downtrend line

And I recognize them as hard. First and last are most hard. Trend may easily reverse on them.

So here is my small brainstorm on this situation.

much appreciated as always 

[Zarathustra]

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

"Good short oportunity in this range with SL in the 233-237 area and target in the low 100s"

Failed.

[masterluc]

Looks broken. Escape from bear jail trendline. green ma200 resistance.



Yet still in longterm downtrend (not actually accurate lines due to sierra bugs)

[masterluc]

"Good short oportunity in this range with SL in the 233-237 area and target in the low 100s"

Failed.

another opportunity - long target 290 with s/l 220. risk/reward 1:3

[thefiniteidea]

I don't know luc, I don't think we're out of the woods yet. I see resistance due to the 50 day MA... lower still looks more likely to me than $300+

[Tzupy]

China leads, not Bitstamp. If the pandas decide to crash and burn, it will be so. Decision should be clear within 2 - 3 days.

[hhthinh]

is your btc addy still ok Luc?If yes pls confirm,i want to give you a gift

i sent straight,check your addy !

[masterluc]

I reconize current activity as long term counter trend corrective move.

I said earlier, there are a lot of resistances at 250-350 area.

This rally isn't safe enough, I see a potential to 290-320 so far. And it is risky.

i sent straight,check your addy !

Thanks.

[negafen]

I reconize current activity as long term counter trend corrective move.

I said earlier, there are a lot of resistances at 250-350 area.

This rally isn't safe enough, I see a potential to 290-320 so far. And it is risky.

200 has proven to be a strong resistance line. Little risk with potential 50-60 dollars gain per coin if played right.

[realdos]

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?

[hdbuck]

another H&S forming?

[realdos]

another H&S forming?

How about the last H&S? Failed?

[HeliKopterBen]

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?

Depends on how you draw it and at what scale.  If the linear scale holds above 230 for the remainder of this weekly bar, then that trend can be considered broken, which IMO would only introduce uncertainty into the longer term trend.



close up:



For more certainty, the log trend line should be broken in the same manner... and a solid weekly bar above 315 would help to indicate a trend change:

[realdos]

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?

Depends on how you draw it and at what scale.  If the linear scale holds above 230 for the remainder of this weekly bar, then that trend can be considered broken, which IMO would only introduce uncertainty into the longer term trend.



close up:



For more certainty, the log trend line should be broken in the same manner... and a solid weekly bar above 315 would help to indicate a trend change:

230 broken. What now?

[lay785]

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?

Depends on how you draw it and at what scale.  If the linear scale holds above 230 for the remainder of this weekly bar, then that trend can be considered broken, which IMO would only introduce uncertainty into the longer term trend.



close up:



For more certainty, the log trend line should be broken in the same manner... and a solid weekly bar above 315 would help to indicate a trend change:

230 broken. What now?

buy lol

[HeliKopterBen]

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

[realdos]

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

True, short was very risky as it now soars above 240..

[lebing]

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

So you are saying that the price is going to be 5x what it is, but not to buy now?

Even if you buy only a small amount, that amount of coins will be worth much more than what you would get if you were to be buying market order once it passes the ATH. I cringe thinking thinking about the slippage on a market order once we pass that. Probably $100 slip heh.

[HeliKopterBen]

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

So you are saying that the price is going to be 5x what it is, but not to buy now?

Even if you buy only a small amount, that amount of coins will be worth much more than what you would get if you were to be buying market order once it passes the ATH. I cringe thinking thinking about the slippage on a market order once we pass that. Probably $100 slip heh.

That is not what I am saying at all.  Go back and review the discussion about trendlines.