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I think an universal 3D printer, capable to produce any stuff, will be the most important achievement and have greatest impact on human civilization.
Bitcoin may be put on the second place.
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In a free-market context, if big automated factories cause pervasive unemployment as a side-effect then there is no demand and the factories cease to exist. I am advocating that extreme automation is only viable in regulated planned economies: the Gov have to inflate to sustain the demand in order to avoid failures in the supply side so the machines can survive. We have built a nice society where humans only exist to justify machine work. This is madness and it is only possible with fake money.
Of course technological progress will slow down if no fiat money injected, but nevertheless won't completely stop. Moreover, without fiat money any government in the developed world will collapse within months, turning quality of the life to medieval level. |
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So you suggest a war against unemployment?
After all, the most prosperous states in history were always those where the government micro-managed the economy, no?
I would agree with you, but look realistically - things have changed, "Luddite fallacy" is becoming a fallacy, market by itself simply unable to solve this problem! These micro-govt "laissez faire" countries will look as on the picture posted above because "useless people" won't just starve and accept their destiny! Bloody civil war is imminent and I think engineers/programmers/geeks will be hit by crazy crowd at most (many people see them as creators of digital inequality, attack on Google buses are recent examples). However, it is not their guilt. The only people to blame are greedy bastards who don't want to share anything, e.g. to leave wage the same but reduce working hours and hire more people (now Apple have so many savings that even don't know what to do with all this money  )! |
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It would be wise for Russians and Ukrainians to store their money to something safer (i.e. gold, silver or Bitcoin).
Gold and silver here taxed with VAT, so Bitcoin is the most cheapest way to save your money! |
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@anu, this image is more relevant to the scenario if no any action taken to solve tech unemployment issue! 
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In a capitalist system, you can be laid off. In a collectivist system, where the collective is everything and the individual is nothing, redundant individuals are disposed of.
I don't understand, what do you mean "redundant individuals are disposed of"? Main solution to tech unemployment in countries with state ownership of the production means will be reducing the working day (of course leaving yearly wage untouched). J. M. Keynes who originated the term "technological unemployment" in his essay "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren" in 1930 wrote: But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while.
@bitaxed, I agree with you about monetary system. But in this topic we discuss another problem, which in fact relates to questions about the ownership on capital means of production, land and natural resources. Changing currency won't help a lot! |
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The wide-spread acceptance and use of a crypto 2.0 like Ethereum is the only development that I believe could set bitcoin back.
I think Etherium will create another niche (decentralized contracts and shares) which won't interfere with Bitcoin's one (payment system and the way to save capital from confiscation). |
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If Russia will start invasion into Ukraine this could damage its economy because EU and US likely will impose sanctions.
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If these machines are capable of replacing us, then why would they care about us or do anything to keep our species going?
It is nearly impossible to predict how AI development will go, but my personal opinion is that autonomous robots and software capable to replace ~50% of workforce will appear much earlier than self-aware ("thinking") machines. Where would a guaranteed income come from?
If you have read my posts you probably know that I prefer another solution rather than unconditional income. Address this question to it's supporters. He was saying that the tech unemployment problem is only something that happens in a socialist system, and can't happen in a capitalist system. Thus, there is no solution for tech unemployment in a capitalist system, because such a thing simply can't happen in that system.
Technological unemployment can appear only in capitalist system. In the variant of socialism with planned economy it is impossible in principle! @thedarklight, please post summary of your idea. |
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I thought Stalin was dead. Why don't they just move back? Or is Stalin still forcing the Russian settlers to stay and suffer under the brutal leadership of the evil Ukrainian Nazis? You guys are full of shit. Get off the Internet.
Crimea was a part of Russia until 1954 when Nikita Khrushev simply donated it to the Ukraine to show friendship of USSR's govt. Russians are the majority here and Ukraininan Nazis strongly hated in Crimea! |
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If Ukraine will be split, Russia likely will help to eastern regions.
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If you have studied political situation in the Ukraine you must know that there are a lot of neo-nazis among Maidan rioters who took power in Kiev. Crimea's population are mostly Russian and they will never agree to live under this government!
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I maintain that we have not run out of things to do, and for gain, and that we never will. The robots are tools. Who's hands they fall into will make a lot of difference in the outcome, but people will find a way to subsist.
Do you really think autonomous robots are simply the tools!? They won't just augment human's strength and mind as machines did in the past but replace human workers altogether in the most sectors! The real problem for socialist economies is that there are simply no economical solutions for the technological unemployment utopia. Period!
All proposed solutions for tech unemployment I have ever read are more or less socialist. It will be very interesting if you can to suggest market-base one. In our planned socialist economies we are often discussing their big-problems caused by big-failures of big-govs, big-banks, big-corps. In free-market capitalism failure is not a problem is the engine.
About what country with planned economy are you telling?! After USSR collapse neoliberal capitalism became the only economic model in all developed countries. |
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Capitalist, yes. Free market? You seem an intelligent dude, so I'm not going to behead you for that ignorant remark. The only free markets in the US, and most developed nations, are referred to as "black markets" by the media. And they are indeed prosperous. The rest is regulated unto death. A great deal of the lack of labor participation in the US is due to the fact that if you try to engage in any sort of commerce without a small to large fortune backing your endeavors, the barrier to entry via licensing, inspections, necessary bribes, ad nauseam make it nearly impossible. In a free market, the failure rate would be higher, but the losses generally smaller, as the barrier to entry is essentially skill and guts.
"Free-market" is very abstract term. This is mostly true if you speak about trade barriers (during last decades most of them have been removed, allowing corporations to outsource labor to third-world countries that affected wages and employment the same way as automation). Moreover, removing entry barriers and licensing won't significantly affect employment. It will simply increase competition in the currently-protected sectors slashing the wages and profit margins. For example, if the government will entirely remove all taxi regulations, some unemployed will get opportunity to earn living with driving own car while many professional taxi drivers will be pushed away from the market with falling fares. Also, of note in your own reply, yes the most developed nations are capitalist. Funny how that works, isn't it? I'm not speaking theoretically when I say socialist societies eat themselves. I'm old enough to have observed it, multiple times. The Soviet Union achieved rather more than most of them, but in the end the necessary contradictions of "public" ownership, as opposed to individual ownership, led to their demise. Socialism is a beautiful concept, if you don't look too deep. It works great for ants, bees, and the Borg. But humans are NOT faceless, replaceable parts in a giant machine. Trying to make us be leads to failure.
There are simply no capitalist solutions for the technological unemployment problem. Period! Even moderate right-wingers accept this fact (you cannot call the author of the book "Lights in the tunnel" as socialist because he fully advocates market-based economic model, but nevertheless he insists to implement unconditional income TO SAVE this system). If insane right-wing fanatics (they call themselves "neoliberals" or "neoconservatives") won't change their position, they all will be killed during revolutions. For one thing, technological advancement does not happen all at once and all in one place. Thus when a certain threshold is passed in one place, those in others observe, react, and where necessary, change course. In a truly free market, this is a quick, dynamic process. In what passes for markets now, it isn't.
World elites now mostly consist of insane neoliberals who try to hide any problems and keep status quo until the end. |
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The only point at which consumers stop demanding is when they die.
People won't die if they won't buy cars, smartphones, luxuries, movies, music, go to fitness, yoga, beauty shops etc! Which won't happen in socialist communities because they will eat themselves first. Long before technological unemployment is actually a concept, let alone a problem.
Currently there are no truly socialist communities in the world, therefore it cannot happen in principle. But for the most developed countries (which are all free-market capitalist now) technological unemployment is knocking the door. Don't believe?! Look at the U.S. labor participation rate since year 2000. Look at the example you're typing on. It put a lot of professions out of business. Yet it CREATED hundreds more. Possibly thousands, given the flexibility of the Personal Computer.
We are not going to be outcompeted by robots. We will adapt. We always have, and we always will.
For many people it is just hard to understand what is an exponential growth curve (technology advancements follows it). No doubt new jobs will appear, but after some point their number will be less than jobs automated. |
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Ukraine consists of two completely different parts (pro-Russian east and pro-European west) and they are unlikely to be able to live peacefully in a single country. There are a lot of neo-nazis in western regions (Stepan Bandera's followers who supported Hitler during WWII) therefore Russians will never agree to allow them to rule in eastern regions.
The most preferably solution for the Ukraine now is a separation like Czechoslovakia did in the past IMHO.
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@Biomech, tragedy of the commons will occur in capitalist (free-market) economies when tech unemployment will hit them. Consumer demand is the resource that will be depleted!
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The basic question a capitalist will ask him or her self, will be -"Would I rather incur the small effort and tiny cost of accepting and handling a high demurrage rate altcoin, or let these customers with the altcoins go to a competitor who will accept them?"
This question can be equivalent to "Do capitalists agree to pay taxes to fund unconditional income?" or "Do capitalists agree to keep wage the same but reduce working hours?". Demurrage is just another expense for capital owners along with taxes and wages. Considering this fact and that many (probably most) CEOs and major shareholders are insane right-wingers, the answer is rather obvious! |
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Bitcoin will often do the exact opposite of what you think it will do.
Bitcoin price restoring quickly now, therefore seems I was right! |
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