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Question: What solution would you prefer?
Unconditional income (extremely high taxation inevitable) - 174 (77.3%)
Planned economy (with full employment provided by state) - 51 (22.7%)
Total Voters: 225

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Author Topic: Technological unemployment is (almost) here  (Read 88274 times)
thedarklight
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March 02, 2014, 06:49:57 AM
 #441


All proposed solutions for tech unemployment I have ever read are more or less socialist. It will be very interesting if you can to suggest market-base one. Wink

Here is my market based solution
http://darkai.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Resilience-Project-Whitepaper-Draft-3.pdf
This whitepaper is a draft. Read it and let's discuss solutions rather than dwell on the problem and political division is part of the problem. Divide and rule.

Of course I don't expect any of you to read it. You're more interested in debating politics.
Biomech
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March 02, 2014, 11:13:51 AM
Last edit: March 02, 2014, 12:19:38 PM by Biomech
 #442


All proposed solutions for tech unemployment I have ever read are more or less socialist. It will be very interesting if you can to suggest market-base one. Wink

Here is my market based solution
http://darkai.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Resilience-Project-Whitepaper-Draft-3.pdf
This whitepaper is a draft. Read it and let's discuss solutions rather than dwell on the problem and political division is part of the problem. Divide and rule.

Of course I don't expect any of you to read it. You're more interested in debating politics.

I have begun to read it. You write well, and that is a good beginning. I'll post an opinion later.

Edit: I've read about half of it now, and I have to bag it for tonight. Very interesting. I haven't yet read your conclusions, but you make some good points. I won't comment on the problems I see until I have finished the paper, but so far I'm seeing a pretty good framework for debate, at the very least.

I would recommend you post it up as it's own thread, where we can pick at it and hone it.
giantdragon (OP)
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March 02, 2014, 03:13:52 PM
 #443

If these machines are capable of replacing us, then why would they care about us or do anything to keep our species going?
It is nearly impossible to predict how AI development will go, but my personal opinion is that autonomous robots and software capable to replace ~50% of workforce will appear much earlier than self-aware ("thinking") machines.

Where would a guaranteed income come from?
If you have read my posts you probably know that I prefer another solution rather than unconditional income. Address this question to it's supporters.

He was saying that the tech unemployment problem is only something that happens in a socialist system, and can't happen in a capitalist system. Thus, there is no solution for tech unemployment in a capitalist system, because such a thing simply can't happen in that system.
Technological unemployment can appear only in capitalist system. In the variant of socialism with planned economy it is impossible in principle!

@thedarklight, please post summary of your idea.
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March 03, 2014, 12:40:52 PM
 #444

Anyone gives to the word "capitalism" a different political/emotional meaning: we go from crony-corporativist-capitalism to free-market anarcho-capitalism.
We live in mixed economies, so calm down and talk about WTF is happening to us.

We can agree that the "money" State/central-bank monopoly (i.e. fiat currency) cannot be realized in free-market capitalism. In the latter, market chooses which medium of exchange is more convenient at given time. This kind of monopoly is artificial not natural: it is enforced by law, i.e. with a gun behind your head (many do not see it). Why this monopoly exists? Is it fair? Modern "money" is the accounting system of a State. As many "public" services, the accounting system is outsourced to private corporations, in this case banks through the central bank system. These are what I call the Government in power (Money is power, politicians are our representatives to talk with the Gov). Bad investments and you lose money (power!): a very good feature of free-market economy. The Gov makes bad investments, Gov is not God, it only has the God complex. Taxes are introduced to deal with this Big-(Gov)-Problem: vital productive investments have to be taxed for recovering losses. If you understand the financial system then you know that taxes mostly cover bank interests. Call as you what this mess but it is not (free-market) capitalism.

Modern currencies are only green numbers stored in computers flowing from the top of the pyramid downwards. 

Welcome to the real World, Neo.

(P.S. Red pills are now directly dispensed in your anus when you sit down. No choice, sorry).

anu
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March 03, 2014, 01:08:14 PM
 #445


Technological unemployment can appear only in capitalist system. In the variant of socialism with planned economy it is impossible in principle!


In a capitalist system, you can be laid off. In a collectivist system, where the collective is everything and the individual is nothing, redundant individuals are disposed of.

So in a sense, you are right: In socialism, there will be no technological unemployment.

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anu
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March 03, 2014, 01:18:15 PM
 #446

If these machines are capable of replacing us, then why would they care about us or do anything to keep our species going?

The only solution I can think of is Transhumanism: We need to stay ahead of the curve and remain the smartest beings around by augmenting. Those failing to do so will go the Malthusian way.

Where would a guaranteed income come from?

In the short run: Through taxes and money printing. BIG is an economic impossibility in the long run, however. The part of the population on BIG would separate from those who create the wealth. It would lead to an Eloy/Morlock situation except that the Morlocks have no use for the Eloy and therefore would get rid of them.

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giantdragon (OP)
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March 03, 2014, 03:25:02 PM
 #447

In a capitalist system, you can be laid off. In a collectivist system, where the collective is everything and the individual is nothing, redundant individuals are disposed of.
I don't understand, what do you mean "redundant individuals are disposed of"?

Main solution to tech unemployment in countries with state ownership of the production means will be reducing the working day (of course leaving yearly wage untouched).

J. M. Keynes who originated the term "technological unemployment" in his essay "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren" in 1930 wrote:
Quote
But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while.

@bitaxed, I agree with you about monetary system. But in this topic we discuss another problem, which in fact relates to questions about the ownership on capital means of production, land and natural resources. Changing currency won't help a lot!
anu
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March 03, 2014, 04:11:19 PM
 #448

In a capitalist system, you can be laid off. In a collectivist system, where the collective is everything and the individual is nothing, redundant individuals are disposed of.
I don't understand, what do you mean "redundant individuals are disposed of"?


This:



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giantdragon (OP)
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March 03, 2014, 05:11:24 PM
 #449

@anu, this image is more relevant to the scenario if no any action taken to solve tech unemployment issue! Wink
anu
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March 03, 2014, 05:16:22 PM
 #450

@anu, this image is more relevant to the scenario if no any action taken to solve tech unemployment issue! Wink

So you suggest a war against unemployment? Understandable, seing what a smashing success the war on drugs and the war on poverty was. We only need to give the government more power and everything will be fine. After all, the most prosperous states in history were always those where the government micro-managed the economy, no?

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March 03, 2014, 07:48:40 PM
 #451

So you suggest a war against unemployment?
After all, the most prosperous states in history were always those where the government micro-managed the economy, no?
I would agree with you, but look realistically - things have changed, "Luddite fallacy" is becoming a fallacy, market by itself simply unable to solve this problem!
These micro-govt "laissez faire" countries will look as on the picture posted above because "useless people" won't just starve and accept their destiny! Bloody civil war is imminent and I think engineers/programmers/geeks will be hit by crazy crowd at most (many people see them as creators of digital inequality, attack on Google buses are recent examples). However, it is not their guilt. The only people to blame are greedy bastards who don't want to share anything, e.g. to leave wage the same but reduce working hours and hire more people (now Apple have so many savings that even don't know what to do with all this money Grin)!
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March 03, 2014, 08:13:51 PM
 #452

@bitaxed, I agree with you about monetary system. But in this topic we discuss another problem, which in fact relates to questions about the ownership on capital means of production, land and natural resources. Changing currency won't help a lot!

It is related, but probably I was not able to clarify my point of view  Tongue In a previous post I said that extreme automation is feasible but this does not mean that is economically viable... in the free-market capitalism. You assume that production is always automated only because technology allows it. Wrong, automation is function of the demand. You put this false assumption in the title of the post: technology does not produce unemployment. Automation produce reallocation of human resources and eventually unemployment. 

In a free-market context, if big automated factories cause pervasive unemployment as a side-effect then there is no demand and the factories cease to exist. I am advocating that extreme automation is only viable in regulated planned economies: the Gov have to inflate to sustain the demand in order to avoid failures in the supply side so the machines can survive. We have built a nice society where humans only exist to justify machine work. This is madness and it is only possible with fake money.



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March 03, 2014, 08:50:16 PM
 #453

In a free-market context, if big automated factories cause pervasive unemployment as a side-effect then there is no demand and the factories cease to exist. I am advocating that extreme automation is only viable in regulated planned economies: the Gov have to inflate to sustain the demand in order to avoid failures in the supply side so the machines can survive. We have built a nice society where humans only exist to justify machine work. This is madness and it is only possible with fake money.
Of course technological progress will slow down if no fiat money injected, but nevertheless won't completely stop. Moreover, without fiat money any government in the developed world will collapse within months, turning quality of the life to medieval level.
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March 04, 2014, 05:20:55 AM
 #454

Money is the medium that controls our innovation and development, both the chain that binds us and the reward waiting at the end. Can... we truly live in a world without free automation?

If you think my efforts are worth something; I'll keep on keeping on.
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March 04, 2014, 09:05:56 AM
 #455

market by itself simply unable to solve this problem!

Blaming it on the market is like blaming the crash of a Boeing 747 on the Navier Stokes equations. The rules of the market come from the way humans are. Which is a direct result of evolution. Which is therefore a direct result of fundamental physics. Trying to change fundamental physics is futile. Social engineering is futile, too. The only thing that could be done about the market rules is genetic engineering to change ourselves into hive animals. The question is: Do we want that?

The only people to blame are greedy bastards who don't want to share anything, e.g. to leave wage the same but reduce working hours and hire more people (now Apple have so many savings that even don't know what to do with all this money Grin)!

Nobody is hiring staff because he wants to share. You wouldn't, either. We hire staff if they produce more value for us than they cost.


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March 04, 2014, 09:13:52 AM
 #456

Of course technological progress will slow down if no fiat money injected, but nevertheless won't completely stop.

I agree.

Moreover, without fiat money any government in the developed world will collapse within months, [CUT]

I agree. One simple logical consequence: extortion is the core business of the bank-state system. Bank-state is essentially organized crime, mafia. This is consistent with history. No society based on extortion will survive in the long run.


[CUT] turning quality of the life to medieval level.

I agree. Economy needs time to recover from poisoning (misallocation of resources). State is an ancient form of organization: it existed before and during the middle ages and it is the cause of the quality of life of the period. Please check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_ancient_Rome. Enslavement is a the base of every State.
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March 04, 2014, 09:20:30 AM
 #457

Of course technological progress will slow down if no fiat money injected, but nevertheless won't completely stop. Moreover, without fiat money any government in the developed world will collapse within months, turning quality of the life to medieval level.

It surprises me to read such praise of fiat money on this board. The 19th century largely got along without fiat money, particularly in the US and Germany went pretty much with metals. That posed a problem for banks because companies developed a tendency to invest from revenue, not from loans.

I believe the problem discussed here would largely go away if we'd use money that isn't someone else's liability. So far, the reason for unemployment is not AI (though that may change), it's the huge cost of using money. Our tax load is actually somewhere between 75% and 90% because of inflation and interest. It is hard to be profitable if you can keep less 20% of your income.

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March 04, 2014, 09:50:59 AM
 #458

Of course technological progress will slow down if no fiat money injected, but nevertheless won't completely stop. Moreover, without fiat money any government in the developed world will collapse within months, turning quality of the life to medieval level.

It surprises me to read such praise of fiat money on this board. The 19th century largely got along without fiat money, particularly in the US and Germany went pretty much with metals. That posed a problem for banks because companies developed a tendency to invest from revenue, not from loans.

I believe the problem discussed here would largely go away if we'd use money that isn't someone else's liability. So far, the reason for unemployment is not AI (though that may change), it's the huge cost of using money. Our tax load is actually somewhere between 75% and 90% because of inflation and interest. It is hard to be profitable if you can keep less 20% of your income.
+ many!!!!

From the founding of the American experiment until 1913, the US dollar was based on gold, directly. While there were a couple of failed experiments in fiat along the way, that standard remained in place, fixed at 1 oz pure gold being 20 dollars. During that period, prices tended to go DOWN over time, even prior to industrialization, because the rate of inflation was ONLY the minting of new coins, which came to the market only via mining.

And since the basis was gold, it could not be readily counterfeited. Sure, you could make a brass coin and fool the unwary, but the term "acid test" comes from mercantile trade in gold. A rather simple test, on a touchstone with a specific acid solution will verify real gold in seconds.

Also, a metal based currency limits the ability of banks or other actors in that the gold MUST exist for the transaction to exist.

Satoshi based his protocol on this idea, making a digital analog of gold mining. The currency only inflates till there are twenty one million coins, then that pool is the totality of the money supply, at least in bitcoin.

As to the idea of "technological unemployment", I maintain that we will find ways to occupy ourselves. The same arguments were used in the late 19th century, again railing against capitalism. Yet here we are, with 7 times as many humans living, in developed nations, better than Medieval kings.

As I stated earlier, before some cockmonkey points it out as a refutation, it is rare indeed that things are spread equally. I am fully aware that much of the world lives in abject poverty, and I do indeed feel it's a problem worthy of addressing. It's primarily a political/religious problem, though, as with modern farming techniques , even absent GMO's, the world can be fed relatively easy at a much higher population density.

Becoming the Borg would indeed solve the problem, but I don't fancy giving up my identity to become part of a machine. It substitutes a workable problem for complete sublimation and elimination of the current human species. So long as free will exists, capitalism will trump all other economic systems for one reason and one reason alone: It is the ONLY demonstrated system that works in the absence of belief.

There is no "one solution" for the many perils humanity faces. The old ways are indeed dying, but they aren't going to die fast. Centralization has risen and fallen many times over our history, with today probably being it's pinnacle. In it's heights and glories it has already sewn the seeds of it's eventual failure. The internet is a major facet of this, and it's an evolutionary change taking place rather than revolutionary. We are able to talk amongst ourselves without regard to borders. Every day I talk to people from all over the world on just this forum. Both the internet and bitcoin are bringing about an exchange of ideas and commerce in a capitalistic fashion far beyond the wildest dreams of people just a few decades ago. I know, because I was one of those dreamers.

Like many of my generation, I did not like the way the dream manifested. Unlike most of the hackers of that bygone era, I have come to embrace it. Because while the internet is often gaudy, highly commercial, and fraught with stupidity, misinformation, and downright fraud, it IS a nearly free global communications network. And that's what we were all working for back in the 70's and 80's while being blamed for all the ills of modern youth. The future is not written in the past. The past is a guide, and often a warning. But the future belongs to those who can envision it, and make it their own. I won't be replaced by a robot. My job might be, and they're welcome to it. I'll move on to something else. Unless robots become so advanced and inventive that they can out-invent us, then they are no long term danger. If we build such machines, well, that's our own fault. Even then, I don't think they will displace us, because frankly I can't see machines having either the imagination or the will to treachery of humans.

Further, and this is something I have been hammering on since I was a child, why the FUCK are we limiting ourselves to Earth? We have the resources, we have had the technology since the late sixties, and I guarantee you I could PERSONALLY round up the volunteers to colonize near space. The cost would be less than a couple weeks of the United States Killing Apparatus Budget, and that would build a self sustaining and viable community on mars in less than a decade. All we lack is the will amongst the people who have the money. A rich man or a group of them with vision could pull this off, and once there?" There IS NO LIMIT.

As population continues to rise, medicine continues to improve, and yes, automation continues apace, this will become a more and more attractive course of action for those who are not content to simply draw a salary but would rather DO something with their lives. Malthus and his mythical friend Ludd were just plain wrong, and history just keeps bearing this out. Every technological advance leads to new fields of endeavor, rather than limiting them. This has been going on since the first protohuman made a tool. My sig is my belief. Technology is the DOOM and SALVATION of humanity. For those raised in the United States or who's language is not English (yes that is a jab at the alleged school system here), Doom does not mean certain death, but rather an inescapable fate. Our inescapable fate due to our base nature is to invent things, improve things, bust shit, make tools and then refine them. We are the dominant species on this planet because of it. I do not see our technology and it's advances as a weakness, but our greatest strength. I reject utterly the underlying axioms of this thread, and have for longer than the internet has existed. This is a solution looking for a problem, not the other way 'round. We will adapt, and we will prevail.
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March 04, 2014, 03:23:10 PM
 #459

@Biomech, I fully agree with you about usefulness of the technology. Again, I am not a Luddite as someone may falsely think.
The problem is in the currently-dominant political system and redistribution mechanisms. Robots and automation can open new era of greatest prosperity for everyone if properly used!
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March 04, 2014, 04:18:26 PM
 #460

Further, and this is something I have been hammering on since I was a child, why the FUCK are we limiting ourselves to Earth? We have the resources, we have had the technology since the late sixties,....

That is the conundrum, isn't it? Why are we limiting ourselves?

I studied aerospace engineering around the time of the fall of the Soviet Union and it was 100% clear to us then that the age of conquering space would start and we would open a new frontier. Instead, all the money went into a crazed and de-regulated banking sector which is why I ended up working for banks, helping them to "invent" all sort of "innovative products".

We squandered the peace dividend.

I reject utterly the underlying axioms of this thread, and have for longer than the internet has existed.

The fiscal-financial complex is the parasite that is eating us alive. But if we make redundant the BANK with all sort of technologies which can be build upon the blockchain concept (contracts...), I will agree with you: The boost to the economy this will cause will be so massive that this thread will look ridiculous.

But right now it looks like the state propaganda works: Occupy doesn't see centralization of power as the problem, but as a solution. The vast majority wants more of the same. As a result, this thread looks like it has merrit.

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