Cross-posting... I also see much confirmation that Bitcoin is not being adopted by most of those who hear about it
I am much more experienced than you in analyzing market demographics. I knew the following intuitively before I even Googled to verify it. Bitcoin is nearing 6 years old. The World Wide Web was launched to the public-at-large in 1993. By the 6-7th year, the dot.com bubble had a capitalization that was 183% of the USA GDP!!! You are picking arbitrary dates. You are picking your www date as "launched to the public-at-large" but picking your Bitcoin date from the genesis block. A equally valid start date for www would be: "In 1989, while working at CERN, Tim Berners-Lee invented a network-based implementation of the hypertext concept. By releasing his invention to public use, he ensured the technology would become widespread.", or even Gopher or the creation of arpa-net itself. But it would be more reasonable to say that such comparisons are useless. You can compare such things broadly but to expect equivalent adoption trajectories is just silly. Your supposed experience caused you to completely miss the Bitcoin bull market of 2012/2013 IIRC so your crystal-ball has exactly zero credibility, even though some of your arguments -- that past exponential does not indicate future performance and your revised adoption graph is a reasonable fit -- have merit standing on their own. And even more tellingly you seem to be unable to internalize your mistake because you persist in imagining that your reputation based arguments ("I am much more experienced in statistics and market demographics, I contributed to CSS, etc") have any value whatsoever in this forum. |
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At least give this an open minded read... I am sincerely not trying to coin pump. Something huge is actually happening here: http://209.126.70.170/SuperNET.pdf. Teleport, InstantDEX, Multigateway, cross chain trading, Tradebots, P2p betting, SuperNET. This stuff is not coin (or nxt) specific. These features cannot be disregarded as they will boost ALL of crypto and have never been done before! Crypto is about to change forever. Wow, there is not a single technically described idea in that document at all. Its like 10% trying to be cool, 30% marketing, 40% imaginary ideas that are not original and 20% garbage. Can I charge you for my time? |
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...
My feeling is that the price has dropped in the last 6 months, while the value has grown.
Agreed. Feels a lot like late-2011/early-2012 to me. Bubble blow off, recovering from a bunch of nasty stuff, yet steady ecosystem development and investment under the hood. Yup exactly! last time, it went from about 130 to over 1100 - almost a ten-bagger
this time, it's launching from 450
my question to you is, when are you selling?
Seems most are thinking it's bubble time? Hmmm. What was that thing people say about everyone expecting the same thing? Hehe.  Yeah, IMO you aggressive bulls are jumping the gun here. We popped a bit which caused wavering fence sitters to freak out and buy. We'll consolidate here for a bit, and hopefully trickle up for a month... this price action will start convincing the larger players and the media that the next run is coming. But I don't think its bubble time, instead compare it to the rebound from 2 to 4+ (in early 2012). |
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U dont get btc. It has nev3r been about retail. That is just icing. Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance. In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency. And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.
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the Fed is going to do whatever it takes to fight this deflation, so look out. but will they really raise interest rates? i seriously doubt it. this Keynesian experiment has created a very high risk situation so get yourselves into safety, however you define that. Fall is coming and the worst crashes usually come during this time:
How do you define safety in this crazy environment? Bitcoin obviously  , but let's imagine you want some diversification... |
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the Fed is going to do whatever it takes to fight this deflation, so look out. but will they really raise interest rates? i seriously doubt it. this Keynesian experiment has created a very high risk situation so get yourselves into safety, however you define that. Fall is coming and the worst crashes usually come during this time:
How do you define safety in this crazy environment? |
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Accepting BTC is a newsworthy event, and you can lessen the impact for conservative stockholders by implying 100% conversion to fiat: "At this point bitpay converts all paid BTC to USD at the moment of sale so there is no exchange risk". However, CHANGING that 100% to 90% then 50% then 0% is easy and can be done without any external difference.
WRT the idea that merchant adoption = short term slide, places like coinbase make it so easy to cash out that this seems unlikely.
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I understand that libertarians do not like to be told that their new fantastic Non-Inflationary Currency is currently supported entirely by inflation tax, in the strict sense of the term. But, unless you can point out some factual inaccuracy in what I wrote, I must assume that by FUD you mean "Facts U Dislike".
Why do you do this?  You are smarter than this, it really gets tiresome. Clearly the hash rate is thousands or even millions of times higher than necessary. Its quite possible that the inflation tax (block subsidy) is actually encouraging mining farms, i.e centralization and therefore to some degree undermining confidence in the currency right now. But it is needed to distribute currency. At this point if the block subsidy was zero and txn fees negligible, large holders and bitcoin companies would be mining to support their other business efforts. Just like how many companies contribute to Linux. |
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RE: Bitcoin and Ebay
"Its very simple, either you cannibalize your own cash flows or somebody else is gonna do it for you"
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for all my former subs, what do u see here? answer: a series of L translated cycles:  If it cracks that triple bottom at around 18.5... |
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I don't think that somebody can really say that this recent drop in value is a "big crash", infact it was only an healthy correction  What was the error that was corrected? Over leverage. Bitfinex long leverage has almost halved, and short leverage has doubled so the ratio long/short is 1/4 what it used to be. |
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they forstalled the inevitable for a while but it looks like the macroeconomic situation is starting to favor bitcoin again...
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Its as if the market, on whole, really wants to go down. Right now, there is selling action and almost no buying action outside of this wall.
Throughout the "mini-bubble" that started on May 20, until a week ago, I see the price as having drifted down most of the time. Until a week ago, the price was pushed up and then sustained by a few sparse events of concentrated buying. Since last week there seems to be a more calibrated effort to keep the price just above 3600 CNY/580 USD, by continuous buying around that level. That huge wall at 3600 on Huobi may be part of that effort. At least, that is my impression. Without that stabilization effort, I would expect the price to continue drifting down towards the mid-May level. In my experience, this is normal behavior when there is not significant media attention. Price is generally drifting down due to mining inflation. Small players (general public) are not adopting in sufficient numbers to offset the mining inflation because we are between media attention cycles. But large and institutional players (professionals) have long memories so they are investing. Their decisions to invest tend to cause concentrated buying because its not worth their time unless they put in many millions. |
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Interesting. Also note that the cheaters would then go and donate the money! This eliminates an as an explanation persistent economic disadvantage (i.e. east germans needed the $ more).
"However, dividing the sample in subjects who had on average 50 percent high rolls or less and those subjects who had on average more than 50 percent high rolls (potential cheaters), we did not find any difference in donations (p=0.52)."
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Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?
With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell.... Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest. But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house" I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway. I wouldn't put it past them, either.... They are known for it https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660948.msg7444385#msg7444385https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660948.msg7444557#msg7444557So someone got stopped out and Bitfinex is somewhat illiquid; Also there are a lot of places people might place obvious stops. This is no evidence against Bitfinex. LOL at referencing MTC as a reliable source. On the other hand you are right. Every exchange has the opportunity to front run trades or harvest over leverage. Day trading is a dangerous game and most ppl lose. |
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Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?
With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house. Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell.... Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest. But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house" |
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exactly, I'm not talking about bitcoin hedgefunds. I'm talking about wall street in general. they usually have a very loose definition of 'fair play'
And this really should come as no surprise either. They play in a more or less zero sum game (they are not entrepreneurs that create things). They are traders. The only way they make money is if somebody else loses theirs. That's the nature, objective, and end of their profession. A finds a way to take B's money without breaking laws. Why we don't think that it is at least a disturbing possibility that A might just do everything they can to take B's money is kind of beyond me. Irrational exuberance. Play long term or hedge your bets. These people are not even "traders" in the traditional sense of adding value to a product my moving it from a location where it is plentiful to one where it is scarce. They profit from information asymmetry and the easiest way to find an information asymmetry is to create it yourself. If you do not know your edge against Wall street, don't play the game. But at the same time don't ignore your advantages. For example, many technical people have a natural edge... they can look at a company's products esp. looking at the new features and decide whether the engineering team is still vibrant. This analysis would tell you not to invest in microsoft, for example, and honestly google is in transition -- new google maps is horrible, everything being crammed under google+, Android integration with cars has gotten worse. Of course Google's momentum can keep it going for years. ...one famous retail investor followed his teenage daughters around the mall and invested in whatever they were excited about... |
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Its a very clever perspective and in fact the most interesting thing I've read in this thread all week. tl;dr; He's essentially saying if you can't get a bank account to support your ATM then outsource the job to customers. You do this via local supply and demand. When the machine gets lots of fiat, raise the price of BTC at that machine. When the price gets high enough, somebody will sell the machine BTC for fiat. When the machine gets lots of BTC, lower the price. The ATM operator makes money by taking a small fraction of every trade, doesn't matter what the price sold/bought at is relative to the rest of the world (in the long term). But of course when it diverges someone will show up with either BTC or cash to do the arbitrage... online posting the current price of BTC at your ATM encourages arbitragers to show up... |
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Note that a merchant choosing to accept BTC is a big deal in terms of PR, stockholder confidence, and technical integration. But going to the bitpay/coinbase app and adjusting the dial from 100% fiat to 90, 80, 50, 25% is a simple. In other words, these services may be a gateway to corporate btc ownership -- when BTC starts to rally we may find flows coming from merchants dry up.
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It may be simple/easy from a technical standpoint, but since it would force real honesty in government and thus deprive government and banks of the main source of their power, such a system will be resisted and fought against in every way imaginable. The only way a bitcoin standard will happen is if the majority of people choose to walk away from fiat of their own free will and choose to adopt bitcoin and think in bitcoin. (Which is exactly why there used to be a gold standard, it wasn't because governments liked it, but because it was demanded by the people)
These two opposing forces between government resistance and individual adoption is what will make this journey one of the most interesting in our lifetime, whichever way it eventually goes.
I like your way of thinking. I'm in it for what promises to be the ride of a lifetime I can't even imagine the world of crypto 5 or 10 years from now so I'm happy that I get to see it grow with my own eyes. meanwhile...Bitcoin DOWN. Why? It is very possible that we are more like at Jan 15, 2012 at this point. In other words, we've recovered from the oversold condition but will be basically flat (slowly creeping up) for another year -- probably until there's another minor meltdown in the traditional banking sector.
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