No matter whether there's news and whatever the new is, now is the time to sell the shares if you are not a long term investor. The doubling of share price has already assumed the successful tape-out. Just a friendly reminder.

Guys where did you get all that info about AM and what is this fuss is all about Friedcat hasnt released any update recently.....
I want to jump back in but I dont see this "big" update everyone is talking about?

links? hints?

thank you

It will move once FC next announces something ....

Those mining scenarios are neither wrong nor elaborate. It's a simple scenario I created because people seem to be expecting AM to just recapture 10% of the network with their new chips. I was highlighting the fact that even if AM didn't sell any hardware, they couldn't even maintain a 5% share for more than two rounds under those conditions.


No, I'm not. Friedcat has claimed the first batch will between 2 and 20 Ph/s. How long will it take to produce a new batch of miners? What will be the size of that batch? What will the network hash rate be when the miner start to come online, etc.

This is the same mistake people made when they were buying shares for 4+ BTC. The 2nd batch of chips will be nowhere near as profitable as the 1st batch.

Like I said,

The problem here though, is that people will be expecting profits like those from gen 1 chips. That's clearly not going to be the case though. As I pointed out months ago when shares were trading at 4+ BTC, AM had a monopoly at the time which is why they could charge outrageous prices for their hardware. As soon as competition came out, the profits from hardware sales plummeted. Everyone thought I was mad back then for saying that but that's exactly what happened.

This time around, AM don't have a monopoly and there's a lot of competition. We don't really know anything about AM's new chips but they won't have as high a hash rate as the 28nm chips. They may have lower power consumption but that doesn't really matter that much for individuals buying a mining rig or two.

So, AM will be releasing new chips into a highly competitive market and they're unlikely to take the performance (Gh/s) crown. Why should people buy AM hardware if they can get better performance elsewhere? The answer has to be because AM is cheaper per hash.

Lets say that AM got 20 Ph/s and sold the lot in one go and distributed the profits as divs. What would those divs have to be like to make you think a share price of 0.4 BTC was good value?

Do the maths, people.

I'd like to say a very big thank you to both Ukyo and Danny for all their work in getting this far.

I think it's been disgraceful to see the amount of abuse being hurled Danny's way when he has just been giving his time and expertise to help the situation. Danny, I would just like you to know that there are many of us who really appreciate what you have done here, and are ashamed by the behaviour of many forum users.

EDIT2: After rereading, I realized this is in fact how all big tech companies fall. They get too big to the point where bureaucracy prevents them from adapting as fast as they need.