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2801  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who else is bored? on: May 31, 2012, 03:10:57 PM
Maybe it's the time to start a bitcoinica copy with 500:1 leverage.

21,000,000:1.  I should be able to buy all potential bitcoins with a single bitcoin deposit.
2802  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: IEEE Spectrum report on the future of money on: May 31, 2012, 05:32:37 AM

Relatedly, this is the coolest bitcoin infographic I've seen:

2803  Economy / Speculation / Re: are you all watching? on: May 30, 2012, 08:24:30 PM
I actually am.

*rises from a slumber of months*

Bitcoin has been a little too sticky to that 5 USD mark. It's about time for some movement. Personally, I think the fact that it has recovered from a series of problems and most people stayed sane during that time is a positive indicator. I wouldn't be surprised if it climbs up a dollar once people realize there's no real reason to trade around magical numbers.

The psychology of this is strange. I know quite a few people who somehow want to hold Bitcoins just in case, but don't actually buy them unless something is happening. Hard to tell how such people will act.

I intended to buy today, but I ended up getting a bunch of work and didn't have time to deposit my money.  I'm hoping to complete the bitinstant transaction tomorrow.  I had around 180 bitcoins in bitcoinica, and though I'm hoping they find their way back to me, I'm going to replace them in the meantime.
2804  Economy / Speculation / Re: are you all watching? on: May 30, 2012, 07:05:50 PM

<looks at bollinger width>
2805  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: List of Bitcoin Companies with Adequate Backup--Please Submit on: May 30, 2012, 05:12:58 AM
This is a waste of time.  You're asking owners for a statement saying their stuff is adequately backed up and that's how they get on the list?  No verification or auditing, just that they think their procedures are adequate.  Similar to how people thought it was adequate to go with cheap hosting on vps providers to hold thousands of btc only to have it stolen right out from under them?

It's a start, but, yes, I agree that we need something more than merely their word.
2806  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Arbitrage charts anybody? on: May 30, 2012, 03:34:57 AM
Just read about a new exchange in Colombia where the BTC was last traded for 9471COP which seams to be 5.21USD. At https://btcchina.com/ the BTC recently peaked at 5.67USD.
Does anybody have a chart of exchange rates in USD for non-USD-exchanges?

Probably a good time to buy on Gox, then.
2807  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-05-30 bitecommunications.com - Tech Deep Dive: Bitcoin is not for the ... on: May 30, 2012, 03:03:46 AM
Quote
Tech Deep Dive: Bitcoin is not for the faint of heart

Jillian Mackintosh
2012-05-30

http://www.bitecommunications.com/tech-deep-dive-bitcoin-is-not-for-the-faint-of-heart/

...
Without further ado, first up is Bitcoin– a new technology being adopted by liberals, geeky ITs, financiers and soon you? Due to the very complex and tech savvy nature of Bitcoin, it has remained somewhat underground. Let’s take a minute to look more closely.
...


So, do you have the desire to experiment? The payoffs and losses are real, but who really knows how Bitcoin will eventually operate in the future. Will it spark a new beginning to a global digital currency? We’ve witnessed a horizontal shift towards a peer-to-peer centered government from hacktavists, Pirate Party, Occupy Movement and so on who fight for privacy, decentralization from banks, governments and corporations, while remaining completely anonymous.  This might be Bitcoin’s demographic at the moment but will it eventually grasp the larger population?

Ok little article.  Little late to the party and the author appears not to have done the deepest research - "Bitcoin was designed and created by an anonymous Japanese computer science student..." and "[Bitcoin] has a ledger that deducts from one account to another, following the transaction trails or “nodes,” but these nodes are completely anonymous".  But, hey, it's something.
2808  Economy / Speculation / Re: are you all watching? on: May 30, 2012, 12:31:41 AM

so proudhon...

did you buy back under 5 yet?  Wink

I bought back.  It wasn't under $5, and it was a little while ago.  Also, I don't have a single coin in any of the exchanges as of this morning.  Wink

Still don't think we're going to the moon, or even out of earth's atmosphere, and moving my coins out of exchanges is for security more than anything else.
2809  Economy / Speculation / Re: are you all watching? on: May 29, 2012, 10:56:13 PM
proudhon over here ...

You rang?..
2810  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why is bitcoin now so absurdly stable when priced in USD? on: May 29, 2012, 10:55:38 PM
Offer and demand of bitcoins is mainly speculation (gambling) instead of a real use of the currency. This way the behavior of the price is uncertain (some periods of high volatility, others of high stability).

In order to fix this problem we need more entrepreneurs, engineers and developers (real work), and less economists, speculators and gamblers (zero-sum game).

There are millions of ideas, projects and systems that were infeasible before Bitcoin (due to transaction costs) but now are fully feasible. The success of Bitcoin is our responsibility.


I think things are moving in this direction.
2811  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-05-28 BrotherJohnF - Silver Update 5/28/12 Capital Controls (video) on: May 29, 2012, 10:04:39 PM

Thanks, Stephen.
2812  Economy / Speculation / Re: When I get my Bitcoinica money back I'm.... on: May 29, 2012, 09:43:45 PM
I'm definitely buying - all the dollars I have on Bitcoinica could be safe and sound bitcoins on my computer (usb stick - password is PaSSWorD1234 - clever heh!) .
One thing I've realised with the Bitcoinica incident is how powerful being in control of your own money really is.

Praise Jesus!



Yes, the bitcoinica incident has re-awakened that sentiment in me.  It's something that all the trading and shorting and all that had drowned out.  It feels really good to be storing bitcoins myself again, and has helped re-ignite the original excitement I felt about this project.

Now we're getting back to the idea. WE are in control of the money. Giving that control to another and bitching is/has been a loosing proposition for 1000's of years.

I agree.  I'm sure I'm over-projecting my own experiences onto the community, but it often seems like we're all sort of learning and changing together as a group and it's exciting to watch and be a part of.  For example, it seems like in the beginning we were all amazed at how we could be our own bank, then we all sort of got lazy and wanted the convenience of a central authority.  I think there was also some fear of the whole thing coming undone and so keeping a lot on an exchange could give you the chance to get some cash out on the way to the bottom.  Now, hack after hack, it's sinking in that a large part of bitcoins' inherent value is that individuals can secure it themselves - and secure it really, really well; while at the same time it can be fairly easy to bring some of your own secure storage and make, for example, an international purchase.  Very cool!  That the price has been relatively stable has, I think, helped nudge us away from depending on central authorities as a hedge against failure.  Again, I'm probably describing myself more than the community as a whole, but I've got this feeling that I'm not alone...

yeah, i'm glad i never got caught up in all that Bitcoinica trading craze.  the closest i ever got was pounding on Zhou for 2 straight months at the end of last year about all the loopholes and financial exploits that could be made against his site.

caught alot of flack for that as usual but look how that has turned out.  i've never left any money on any Bitcoin site or exchange.  its just too dangerous. 

Armory has been a blessing and i feel very secure about my storage savings.

+1 for Armory.
2813  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-05-28 BrotherJohnF - Silver Update 5/28/12 Capital Controls (video) on: May 29, 2012, 09:16:28 PM
Isn't that the same guy who use to post bitcoin TA reports on YouTube?  I think he even posted his own live commentary on the MtGox flashcrash as it happened.
2814  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-05-14 EtsyLabs/KennethBromberg - Bitcoin is NOT a Currency (video) on: May 29, 2012, 09:12:58 PM
@proudhon

Well one of the biggest and vaild complaint Mr. Bromberg had is that there is no floor under Bitcoin which institutional investors can depend on so they could make long-term investments in Bitcoin.

Yeah, It's difficult for me to pinpoint exactly how I feel about this complaint.  On the one hand, I understand it, and I think it's a real puzzler how large institutional investors will ever get involved given that there is no floor under bitcoin, as you put it.  But, at the same time, I want to respond by saying, yes, that's right, there is no floor, no ultimate support...other than the support of those using bitcoin.

Now, is that enough to satisfy institutional investors?  I really can't say.  Probably not.  But the sense I'm getting about this project now is that there's a good chance that, by and by, the strength of the support of bitcoins users will be sufficient to satisfy the demands of such investors.  I suspect it will take a while for this trust to emerge, but I think there's a decent enough chance that it does emerge in a very organic way.  And like biological grown, once a certain base has been achieved, growth beyond that can happen surprisingly quickly.  So, there's a part of me that's resistant to even trying to prop bitcoin up in the way you describe, and instead I'm hopeful that the project sort of organizes and shapes itself out of chaos.  But, maybe that's far too idealistic a thought, which, I think, is something you're wanting to address.
2815  Economy / Speculation / Re: When I get my Bitcoinica money back I'm.... on: May 29, 2012, 09:02:22 PM
I'm definitely buying - all the dollars I have on Bitcoinica could be safe and sound bitcoins on my computer (usb stick - password is PaSSWorD1234 - clever heh!) .
One thing I've realised with the Bitcoinica incident is how powerful being in control of your own money really is.

Praise Jesus!



Yes, the bitcoinica incident has re-awakened that sentiment in me.  It's something that all the trading and shorting and all that had drowned out.  It feels really good to be storing bitcoins myself again, and has helped re-ignite the original excitement I felt about this project.

Now we're getting back to the idea. WE are in control of the money. Giving that control to another and bitching is/has been a loosing proposition for 1000's of years.

I agree.  I'm sure I'm over-projecting my own experiences onto the community, but it often seems like we're all sort of learning and changing together as a group and it's exciting to watch and be a part of.  For example, it seems like in the beginning we were all amazed at how we could be our own bank, then we all sort of got lazy and wanted the convenience of a central authority.  I think there was also some fear of the whole thing coming undone and so keeping a lot on an exchange could give you the chance to get some cash out on the way to the bottom.  Now, hack after hack, it's sinking in that a large part of bitcoins' inherent value is that individuals can secure it themselves - and secure it really, really well; while at the same time it can be fairly easy to bring some of your own secure storage and make, for example, an international purchase.  Very cool!  That the price has been relatively stable has, I think, helped nudge us away from depending on central authorities as a hedge against failure.  Again, I'm probably describing myself more than the community as a whole, but I've got this feeling that I'm not alone...
2816  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why is bitcoin now so absurdly stable when priced in USD? on: May 29, 2012, 08:52:48 PM
One thing to consider is that, for the price to remain stable, someone has to buy up all of the 7200 Bitcoins produced every day.  I imagine that that is the answer to your question.  Someone who holds a lot of dollars, a wealthy investor or perhaps even a bank or government, has decided to buy a large volume of Bitcoins over a long period of time.

Also, the options exchanges have contributed hugely to price stability.

There is no reason to assume that every single miner sells every single bitcoin mined every day.

Sure there's a reason to assume that - to make it seem like demand is really high.
2817  Economy / Economics / Re: Impact of ASIC on BTC price - Lowering the Marginal Cost of Production on: May 29, 2012, 08:46:11 PM
I think that lowering the marginal cost of production

What makes you think the production cost of bitcoins will be lowered? If anything, the opposite is more likely, with large gpu and fpga farms going out of business and high investments in asics that may never pay themselves back as the difficulty will keep going up. Once asics are here, electricity cost will be a moot point, so no one will shut down their asic miners, even if they have no hope of ever recovering their investment. They will continue "producing" at a loss, if you factor in their investment.  Once in a while a faster and/or cheaper device may arrive with the promise of being profitable again, some people may buy in to it, but then the supplier of those chips will produce "too many" (they cost next to nothing to produce anyway) and there goes your profitability again.

My guess is 6 to 12 months after the first asics are available, no miner will be profitable, ever again.  But I cant see how that would impact the price, since supply will still be a steady 50/25/12.5 BTC per block.

Maybe I should have said "operating costs"..?  What I've suggested in the past, and what I'm suggesting here now, is that FPGAs and ASIC miners will push GPU miners out leaving only miners whose operating costs are low.  To cover their day to day operating costs they'll compete with each other to sell what they produce, and if demand doesn't pick up, they're competition to pay their day to day costs will push the price down.

Of course, you could look at it the other way round.  Because the costs of entering the market as a miner will be higher, they'll all eat their day to day costs to an extent, and save most of what they produce on the speculation that at some future date the price will be much higher and they can use a portion of their saved production to pay off all the remaining initial investment.  If enough of them do this, supply could dry up enough that even current demand pushes the price up.
2818  Economy / Speculation / Re: When I get my Bitcoinica money back I'm.... on: May 29, 2012, 08:40:54 PM
I'm definitely buying - all the dollars I have on Bitcoinica could be safe and sound bitcoins on my computer (usb stick - password is PaSSWorD1234 - clever heh!) .
One thing I've realised with the Bitcoinica incident is how powerful being in control of your own money really is.

Praise Jesus!



Yes, the bitcoinica incident has re-awakened that sentiment in me.  It's something that all the trading and shorting and all that had drowned out.  It feels really good to be storing bitcoins myself again, and has helped re-ignite the original excitement I felt about this project.
2819  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stability (Split from Bitcoinica's announcement thread) on: May 29, 2012, 08:37:58 PM
I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

That's all fine-and-dandy if you can manage the risk.

It is also a good way to get bitten.

More evidence for you, chodpaba, suggesting MtGox is losing quite a bit of volume...the total number of bitcoins for sale is lower than I've seen it in months.  And I'll offer my own anecdote.  I no longer have any USD or Bitcoin in MtGox at all.  Nothing against MtGox.  I think it's one of the best bitcoin institutions right now, but I've recently moved from a trading mentality to one of saving and using bitcoins.  My great wish is that I'll never need to trade my bitcoins back into fiat currency and that eventually (I'm talking many, many years) I'll be able to easily buy most of what I like to buy with bitcoins instead of fiat.

My current position is that it's better to buy bitcoins at any price rather than speculate - if the price goes down, buy more.
I chickened out with many of my bitcoins at $4.20 and then moved the $s to Bitcoinica - I could have kept them safely encrypted on my computer and just bought more to mitigate any dip in price.
Instead I'm now waiting in limbo.

I guess I should have added that in addition to saving and using bitcoins, I'm also accumulating more.  Though, like you, I regret not doing this more over the past few months.  For a while I was accumulating some from buying back after sells I had made since the $7.2x top, but I hadn't put much new money in until a few weeks ago and I plan to buy some more in the coming days.  I definitely feel better now that my bitcoins are out of the exchanges and in offline and physically backed up wallets.  I was stung a little from this bitcoinica debacle, but thankfully I had enough good judgement to not put very much in there, though it'd be nice to get it back.
2820  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why is bitcoin now so absurdly stable when priced in USD? on: May 29, 2012, 07:06:18 PM
Thank pirate for the stability.
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