Please, spare us the BS. "A child's toy in the future will put to shame the combined might of all the computers on earth right now." He's the next guy you're talking about. That's all we have to know.
I think you are missing the point.... I am not talking about what unknown coin is out there or anything that will be the next big thing. I am simply talking about No one knows what Bitcoin will be, so its silly to assume that we have passed the tipping point, or hasn't even reached close to its potential. Like I said, we are all guessing and hoping. YES!!!! I think that was the point of the thread to get us to speculate about whether BTC is at a tipping point or NOT. You, Leex1528, are seem to be suggesting that we should discredit all of the speculation b/c NOBODY knows the direction of BTC... There is some truth to that statement, but it seems to be overstated. Personally, I question your viewpoint b/c even though NOBODY knows for sure about the direction of BTC, people who analyze and who become informed about the technologies surrounding BTC and the marketing and the adoption and the liquidation opportunities and the investments can place various probabilities on various outcomes and predict various probabilities regarding the direction of BTC... I think that there are a full range of possibilities in the direction of BTC that have NOT completely worked themselves out yet, including potentials for the development of near complete hostility towards BTC, yet there are various aspects of BTC (cat's out of the bag), that cannot be undone... and we cannot go back to uninvent some of the innovative aspects of BTC that may continue to be carried out by BTC and as we have seen have been adopted by other innovations, including competing crypto-currencies. |
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IMHO it's 2011 all over again, the downtrend will continue ,
with a few bumps here and there
Good news is not enough any more to fuel the rise,
people who want to get into BTC still think it's expensive
They can buy in fractions of a coin... dah?? You know deep down that these dumb fucks are NOT going to buy NO matter what the price between $1 and $550.... they are NOT convinced, and if they price is going down, they are NOT gonna be convinced. On the other hand, they are NOT gonna think that BTC is too expensive when it is in the $850-$2500 range b/c then a lot of people are going to be buying out of fear that they will miss the train (that they already missed when they failed to buy between $550 and $850. That is just the way... of these kinds of paradigm shifting innovations... such as BTC.. they do NOT recognize the value, until the price is skyrocketing. |
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the most fucked up at the moment are miners, an investor or a trader can close his position to cut his loses anytime, but miner will be stuck with a non profitable hardware that cant sell, above all of that he has to pay for mining costs (power, internet, maintenance, rent....)
Not true, depends where you are in the cycle. My miners have paid themselves off and continue mining at a cost of $190/BTC. So how am I "most fucked"? Sometimes it helps if you know what you're talking about. You obviously don't! I am always up for a little correction of the retardtroll...>>>>>> Mmitech. |
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Shorts closed for now, will set up new ones around 550-560$ No longs in between, i´m too scared that this could crumble any minute, lol.
YOU must be losing lots of money in recent times, the way you are trading...? |
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The thing about mmitech, shroomskit kreinaha et al is that they are dishonest. They proclaim the end of the world to induce selling from others, whilst secretly waiting to buy back in at a lower entry.
Good job guys!
+1 Yep.... you said it. I do wonder if you would consider the opposite as dishonest: Bulls talking something up to get a higher price so that they can sell at (more) profit. If you know of dishonesty and trickery, then those kinds of behaviors would be equally bad if they are done to deceive others into acting contrary to their interest. |
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The thing about mmitech, shroomskit kreinaha et al is that they are dishonest. They proclaim the end of the world to induce selling from others, whilst secretly waiting to buy back in at a lower entry.
Good job guys!
+1 Yep.... you said it. |
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Doesn't matter, I'm selling now. Time to get out fellas.
Should I say it now or come back later to say "I told you so"? Jesus Christ, what a fucking arrogant Jesus Christ, to be quoting him/herself!!!   |
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Those hedge funds are having a blast, pissing all over the small guys again.  They seem to be desperate to get the BTC prices down or crazy to be dumping over $3k coins on stamp in 30 minutes... at these mid-$500 prices. |
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I just wrote a PM to ShroomsKit asking some questions about the current situation, however the reply came from falllling??
That's the OLD Fonzie that we used to know... spreading FUD>....  Welcome back. ROFL isn't falling your alt? Me and few members think that, or atleast he trolls as hard as you do  You have a rock in your pocket? or you mean the "royal we" think some silly theory? If you think that I am a troll or that I am trolling, then you (or yous) have a pretty perverted definition regarding what is a troll. @JayJuanGee - PLZ STOP TROLLING; THXWe got the above referred-to misunderstanding fixed.... so therefore, I corrected your statement, above .. YOU ARE WELCOME.... |
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I just wrote a PM to ShroomsKit asking some questions about the current situation, however the reply came from falllling??
That's the OLD Fonzie that we used to know... spreading FUD>.... Welcome back. ROFL isn't falling your alt? Me and few members think that, or atleast he trolls as hard as you do You have a rock in your pocket? or you mean the "royal we" think some silly theory? If you think that I am a troll or that I am trolling, then you (or yous) have a pretty perverted definition regarding what is a troll. It has been reply to fonzie not you dude... OK... I take all my harsh words back.... mmmmmmuuuuuaaaacccchhh.  Friends again... .I hope. |
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I just wrote a PM to ShroomsKit asking some questions about the current situation, however the reply came from falllling??
That's the OLD Fonzie that we used to know... spreading FUD>.... Welcome back. ROFL isn't falling your alt? Me and few members think that, or atleast he trolls as hard as you do You have a rock in your pocket? or you mean the "royal we" think some silly theory? If you think that I am a troll or that I am trolling, then you (or yous) have a pretty perverted definition regarding what is a troll. |
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When will Ethereum be listed on Coinmarketcap? |
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ah, big players, whales and other mythical beings.
well, market does not give a fukk about them.
...until they paint the ticker. What if some big player in accumulation mode is buying directly from pools/OTC, maybe with the 'excuse' that is an ETF/institutional investors who wants just 'clean'/virgin coins. They would use an exchange price as reference so the accumulator would have a big incentive to sell some on the exchanges while buying more OTC to buy as low as possible. +1 This is what I have been saying too. I've thought about this theory for quite a while now. The only thing I can't figure out is how many coins they are buying from miners. The most they can buy from a large mining group that doesn't pay out its individual pool members is under 800 coins a day. So why dump so much to only get 800 coins for such a small discount? There are 3,600 new coins mined every day..... so a accumulator could have multiple buying contracts... therefore theoretically get up to 3600 per day if they were slick about it and were able to accomplish such. Where do you get 800 (which is only 22% of the total BTC mined per day)? |
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I just wrote a PM to ShroomsKit asking some questions about the current situation, however the reply came from falllling??
That's the OLD Fonzie that we used to know... spreading FUD>.... Welcome back. |
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Who can get me clear what caused this such panic, only leverages? Absolutely the answer will be no
No, simply no buy pressure to be found. No bulls to fuel a bounce. I'm starting to think we really need a good plunge, into the $400s perhaps, to provide momentum for a strong rally. Bulls are nowhere to be found -- except those holding from higher up. obvious ...people are not using btc....are holding ...no one new is flocking to bitcoin in the numbers we need vs the folks holding we could be sitting on this kinda flat/slow fall till next year... problem with that is consumer mining seems to be drying up as we speak w/o miners as 'cheerleaders' for bitcoin ..as such dries up...just a bunch of geeks holding coin...that thru FUD and other means press/gov't will make out as fraud ridden...thus less newbies...a world wide 'assasination of reptutation by the 'vested intrests" world wide.....like China is trying to do with bitcoin etc this could be long/hard and dismal ..and the more uncertain it becomes and price goes down the less likely them 'institutional investors' will jump in frigging 'dead cat bounce' http://deadcatbounce.weebly.com/what-is-a-dead-cat-bounce.htmlvs diffusion of inonvation (acceptance) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovationswell I'm in it for the long haul..if BTC goes to $10 so be it.....ride the puppy down in flames....(drank the kool aid don't ya know hard to be us 'pod people') myself if it stays above $150 usd I'm OK ...below that I'm toast...(pick your own USD oops moment)Searing My average buy-in price in is about $610... at the moment..... Surely, it is NOT comfortable to be in the red, but I have confidence and I am NOT planning to sell anytime soon b/c I cannot see prices being downwardly manipulated for too long... surely, we are getting some sustained lower prices today that were somewhat beyond my expectations.... My optimism about Bitcoin would begin to come into question if prices were to capitulate downward into the $200s... maybe getting below $270-ish for any length of time, would cause me to worry.... It seems that we are going to have a hard time getting BTC prices manipulated into the $400s in the coming weeks or months.... ... but NEVER say NEVER...... |
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I just sold whatever i had left. It's clear, Bitcoin is dead.
It failed. This year was make or brake. It broke. People lost interest. Everyone is getting out.
You have to be delusional to think the price will go up suddenly again.
Face it, this is the 5th or 6th year already. This is the time where it was supposed to happen and it simply failed.
People aren't gonna be suddenly interested again in 2 months again.
It's over. There is one way this will go and it isn't up.
You can't be serious Very. Good bye.... doggie bird!!!!!! |
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And for my last post, even bitcoin itself is telling me to go fuck myself (on the 15 minute chart).  O.k. Have a good life!!!!!! BYE now... |
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2014 is the year of bitcoin!  Remember that? I've got to hand it to the community, you guys did put on a good PR campaign. I'm glad I sold the last of my position a few days ago. If this is the year of bitcoin, I don't want to be part of it anymore  Bye, Bye!!!!!!!!! |
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Thanks for the response... and NO problem... I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s).. Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history. In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed. I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins. Year 1 (2015) = $655.50 Year 2 (2016) = $753.83 Year 3 (2017) = $866.90 Year 4 (2018) = $996.93 Year 5 (2019) = $1,146.47 Year 6 (2020) = $1,318.44 Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate. As I posted above ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723219.msg8205979#msg8205979): Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year. I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021. Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 = withdrawal amount = $39,478 = BTC withdrawal 26.04 = BTC in portfolio = 328.27 Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 = withdrawal amount = $41,057 = BTC withdrawal 23.55 = BTC in portfolio = 304.73 Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 = withdrawal amount = $42,699= BTC withdrawal 21.29 = BTC in portfolio = 283.43 Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 = withdrawal amount = $44,407= BTC withdrawal 19.26 = BTC in portfolio = 264.18 Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86= withdrawal amount = $46,184= BTC withdrawal 17.42= BTC in portfolio = 246.76 Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64= withdrawal amount = $48,031= BTC withdrawal 15.75 = BTC in portfolio = 231.01 I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501. However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%. Now THAT is a well done analysis! Nice work! So if I had $201,780, I could go buy 354 BTC today. If BTC were to rise 15% per year, then starting in 2020, I could take the prescribed withdrawals and, you're right, I could have a growing fiat amount in perpetuity...or at least, as long as BTC continued to rise 15% per year. Very well done. For what it's worth, I actually could buy 354 BTC right now (well, it might take me a week to move around some money). And it is worth considering! The only pesky problem is that the 15% would have to continue pretty much forever, or for at least 30+ years. I'm 46. If I stop working at 52 with $466K and change, I'd need that 15% to continue pretty predictably. If BTC is inconsistent...what happens in 2022 if BTC isn't $1743 on the date I need to withdraw, but instead, it's $871? Then I need to withdraw 200% more, which reduces my stash. I could survive that once, but it's a risky proposition! I'm also pretty much banking on a BTC rise to about $37,740 in the next 30 years. I need it to be that when I'm 25 years into retirement AND I'm also banking on the fact that that will have enough purchasing power, either in BTC or fiat, to buy me a loaf of bread. I've got a 2 year old (yeah, had my only kid at the age of 44) that I need to think about, as well. It's a solid analysis and it definitely meets the original criteria, though. And it's actually, in theory, possible for me to do! But I think I'll just be thankful that I actually like my job for now! I came to my above numbers by plugging the various assumptions into an Excel spreadsheet. If you know about Excel spreadsheets, you could input these kinds of various assumptions into your own Excel spreadsheet and then play around with the variables (and the assumptions), including the timeline and including tweaking the year by year growth.. and maybe even convert into a quarter by quarter monitoring or month by month monitoring. I would NOT necessarily suggest purchasing 354BTC at the moment, unless you feel that your other liquid investment assets are sufficiently diversified in order to tolerate such a weighting of your allocations towards BTC... In other words, it is likely that you would NOT want to place all (or most) of your eggs into the one basket that has a number of assumptions that may NOT play out... Yet, on the other hand, if BTC experiences exponential growth in any of the earlier years (or quarters) within the next 6 years, for example, you may be able to withdraw early a portion of your BTC holdings in order to diversify and to better protect against downside risk and maybe even reinvest at a later date (on the dips) a portions of your withdrawn fiat back into BTC. By the way, from my own personal investment into BTC, I have a little different plan than the one that I outlined above. I have a pretty good chunk of BTC (well over 100BTC); however, BTC occupies less than 10% of my total quasi-liquid financial holdings... but currently, I am investing a large quantity of new money into BTC. I am anticipating some BTC bubbles in the future, which will cause me to reconsider the percentages allocation towards BTC. Though currently, I am NOT really opposed to allowing my percentage allocation towards BTC to increase to a considerable quantity so long as the growth in the weighting of the investment towards BTC prices has been caused by the appreciation of BTC prices, rather than caused by my putting more fiat into it..... and so long as I consider the BTC fundamentals to remain strong in the present and into the future projection of what seems to be happening in the BTC space (such as adoption rate increasing and investment rate increasing and liquidation opportunities increasing). In the end, with BTC, it seems like we likely need to tailor our plan to our own circumstances and risk tolerance and assumptions and then to continue to monitor our plan as the space presumably continues to grow and develop. |
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I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me. My last number-crunching was for 2019. I came in around $2340. If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000. Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation. I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/My number is significantly different, because: --He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element. But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff. It shouldn't have been additive. --I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value. --I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market --In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations.. I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners. If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional. Yes, you can quote me. Feel free to refer to this post in 2020. This sub forum's predictions have become a manic-depressive joke. When bitcoin was flying high back in Nov 2013, everyone was convinced the price would hit 10K by the end of 2014. All the TA, trendline charts, predictions, and polls were all screaming the same mantra. Now that we've been in a bear market for some time, everyone has turned a complete 180 degree bear/pessimist, and now is pushing out their 10K prediction to at least 2020 or later, at least 6-10 years from now. Fkn hilarious. I'm sure when bitcoin starts flying high again, possibly end of this year or early 2015, everyone will be utterly convinced AGAIN that it'll hit 10K by mid or end of 2015. And they'll all be saying "I told you so!" but it will be the SAME people here today making their pessimistic 2020+ predictions. If you are referring to any of my posts in this thread as being among the pessimistic ones, I am just "playing along" with fairly conservative posts to show the numbers for such conservative but steady BTC increases within the posts - even though I tend to be much more bullish regarding my thoughts about the potential for exponential BTC price appreciation. NONETHELESS, I remain of the belief that we cannot necessarily bank on the more bullish and exponential price scenario taking place - even though we can put ourselves in a position to profit considerably from a more bullish scenario were it to occur. |
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