How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years?

[DannyElfman]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

[Wary]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. 

[DannyElfman]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. 

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

[Wary]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. 

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking.

[DannyElfman]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. 

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking.

Now I get your angle.

Yes, the average was around 10750.

Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD
Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD

[cbeast]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

Care to show your work?

[JayJuanGee]

Seriously, what is wrong with you guys ? Why do you need such crazy amounts to retire ? I d be totally happy with 10k $ per coin.

With that price it would push everyones life(who is involved in bitcoins) in a better direction. I am going all-in with my bitcoin investment strategy, i just hope it is worth it in the long run.

My friends and family already tread me like a crazy one and laugh at me because bitcoin is just not moving in neither direction. Anyway, i am hodling strong no matter what comes for the next years. I will only sell if there is absolutely no other way to survive while growing my small stash of bitcoins over time.

Back to topic: My dream price would be 40k / coin and ~1 million to retire. But i don't have high life standards, an own apartment with Internet is practically enough to make me happy for the rest of my life. 

Are you going to be able to accumulate more than 25 BTC before BTC prices become a lot more expensive?   I say 25 BTC, b/c that is how many coins you would need to have in order to make $1million out of $40k coins.

 $10k per coin is only going to get you $250K in principle with those same 25BTC... but surely we shouldn't be complaining about $10k per coin if we are buying now... that is nearly 17x appreciation from today's prices.... Maybe it would be good to invest at or near $15k today for the 25 BTC.. and then just wait it out....

I am really NOT sure, though.    My advice, to the extent that I attempt to dish out such would be if a person wanted to get to 25 BTC... but had difficult finances and was NOT sure about being able to invest a whole $15k... would be to invest as much as possible, hopefully, near $7.5k or more and then attempt to keep buying while the money comes in... to attempt to get to 25 BTC within a reasonably accelerated time-frame... then slow down investing in BTC on a dollar cost average basis thereafter.

That is a good question Jay. I am really not sure if i can accumulate 25 bitcoins before the value accelerates. But i think that is not the point, as long as you try as hard as possible to get as many as possible. Right now i increase my bitcoin stash at a speed of ~0.4 btc per month.
With my optimistic(realistic? ) point of view i will not be able to collect 25 bitcoins, because the process will be so much harder to collect more coins when they are worth over 10k$/each. That means 1 million are out of reach for me and remain as a dream. But if i manage to collect >15 bitcoins till then, i will still be happy.

Goddammit, i am such a fucked up superbull. xD

I do NOT necessarily disagree with your reasoning, here.  That is NOT a bad amount - let's say $250 set aside towards BTC per month.  ONLY you are in the position to assess the totality of your financial circumstances.

Actually, I remember in the 80s, I used to buy $100 to $200 per month in US Savings bonds, as a potentially secure means to set aside extra money.. however, I was in NO way as bullish as you about my savings/investment b/c I already knew what the rate of my return was going to be and that my money was going to be locked up for at least 5 years (something like that).  I did NOT have access to such potential investments like bitcoin... so I am NOT sure what I would have done had I known about such a thing like bitcoin when I had that quantity of money to invest... I may have attempted to figure out a way to set aside more money b/c of the upside potential. 

We each have to come to our own resolution regarding how to proceed towards our investment(s), and if $250 per month is all that you feel that you can reasonably do, then so be it.

[DannyElfman]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

Care to show your work?

Yes, I might upload it tomorrow after formating it.

[JayJuanGee]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign.  

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking.

Now I get your angle.

Yes, the average was around 10750.

Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD
Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD

Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth...   So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd.

[DannyElfman]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. 

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking.

Now I get your angle.

Yes, the average was around 10750.

Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD
Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD

Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth...   So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd.

Those were the averages of different best/worst case approaches. Not the range of the absolute amounts.

[JayJuanGee]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. 

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking.

Now I get your angle.

Yes, the average was around 10750.

Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD
Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD

Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth...   So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd.

Those were the averages of different best/worst case approaches. Not the range of the absolute amounts.

Ok... thanks... I look forward to seeing your work.. if you decide to let us see it....

[Biodom]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign.  

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking.

Now I get your angle.

Yes, the average was around 10750.

Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD
Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD

Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth...   So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd.

Those were the averages of different best/worst case approaches. Not the range of the absolute amounts.

Ok... thanks... I look forward to seeing your work.. if you decide to let us see it....

$10750 in 2020 sounds possible, although it is 63% per year on average, which is much higher than any asset class.
Could happen if we hit another bubble or super bubble. In the latter case, $10750 would be a trough after $35000-50000 super bubble.

[brewsterz]

10750 sounds low to me

[Wilhelm]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

The known price history of Bitcoin is roughly 4 years. You're attempting to predict 16 years ahead?

I still like the prediction though but would expect something halvings to have happened and the price could easily go above 10k.

[scarsbergholden]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

"Are you kidding me? I have to wait 6 years for 10k? No way, we're going to the moon this year!" -the average HODLer around here.

[Febo]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. 

As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that

and 10750$ no 10$75 cents

It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking.

Now I get your angle.

Yes, the average was around 10750.

Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD
Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD

so 225-25000 then

[JayJuanGee]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

The known price history of Bitcoin is roughly 4 years. You're attempting to predict 16 years ahead?

I still like the prediction though but would expect something halvings to have happened and the price could easily go above 10k.

Wilhelm:   It is good that we are NOT relying upon your math....        I calculate 2020 to be 6 years from NOW, not 16 years from now.    

By the way, the $10,750 estimate seems a little bearish to me, too... given BTC's history and totality of circumstances, including slipperyslope's theory of exponential growth during the adoption phase.. and NO reason to believe that we are NOT currently in the midst of adoption.... even in early adoption regarding BTC.

[HarmonLi]

Ummm I think in 5 years, you'll be good with about 11 BTC or so... We'll see 3-7 bubbles by then and should be headed to $150000 USD by then... Which would be enough to retire. Maybe not with a mansion, but you'll be fine. But don't take my word for it, only speculation

[ThatDGuy]

Ummm I think in 5 years, you'll be good with about 11 BTC or so... We'll see 3-7 bubbles by then and should be headed to $150000 USD by then... Which would be enough to retire. Maybe not with a mansion, but you'll be fine. But don't take my word for it, only speculation

I'm bullish on BTC, but more than 3 (maaaaaybe 4) bubbles in the next 5 years seems unlikely, given current awareness and such a short timeline.   

[HarmonLi]

Ummm I think in 5 years, you'll be good with about 11 BTC or so... We'll see 3-7 bubbles by then and should be headed to $150000 USD by then... Which would be enough to retire. Maybe not with a mansion, but you'll be fine. But don't take my word for it, only speculation

I'm bullish on BTC, but more than 3 (maaaaaybe 4) bubbles in the next 5 years seems unlikely, given current awareness and such a short timeline.   

Yeah, you could be right. But I tend to be uber-bullish at times. The whole Bitcoin scene just has something exciting about it. It's like back in the good old 80s man, everything's in motion and about to explode upwards on the charts!