Thursday is most bullish day of week. Friday is the bear whale's favorite dump day, and then by Sunday we will be in the $570s... if we're lucky. Sorry to be pessimistic my good sirs, but when you've played this game as long as me, it happens.
It does NOT happen the same every week, even though there may be a pattern. What kind of odds are you giving to your prediction... 90%? 60%? I'd say it's almost a sure bet that Friday and this coming weekend will follow the direction that I outlined above. Perhaps my dollar amounts will be off, but we'll likely see a correction back down to ~$580 tomorrow followed by a slow bleed on anemic volume through the weekend. This week has been following the same pattern as the past several, and this is what has happened every time. Probably, whales just love it when people begin to bank on a pattern, so that they can lock in their profits when people expect the pattern. You can believe what you want, but I have my doubts about any kind of day of the week pattern that is so formulaic as you describe as being a reliable predictor for what is going to happen this weekend. |
|
|
|
Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.
What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me. These are NOT wild guesses, if we are considering the market cap and how much storage of wealth could be contained within the bitcoin and also used for value transmission, plus additional public ledger features. |
|
|
|
Bitcoin in itself is a risky enough investment to worry about investing in altcoins. There isn't a single altcoin besides Monero (and it would be a secondary altcoin) that's worth holding long term, absolutely no other coin has a point to exist, beyond pump and dumps (fuck my life, didn't bough on that Supercoin thing.. but then again, it's just all a lottery).
So yeah, focus on dollar averaging on BTC.
GiveBTCpls: What's your current investment plan in BTC...? Are you following the DCA plan? Will you have 1 BTC by the end of the year, or sooner? How much are you putting in and how frequently? Currently, I put in as my cash (fiat) comes in. So, whatever that I have left after my expenses goes towards BTC... So on a monthly basis, I am probably putting about 20 to 30% of my income into BTC.. and I am trying to time my purchases for the dips in BTC prices.. so I always have some fiat in reserve, just in case there is an additional dip in BTC prices. I have less than 10% of my total liquid assets in BTC... but I am working on adding to my BTC proportion of my investment portfolio, and if BTC prices appreciate considerably, then I am going to allow BTC to occupy a large proportion of my total investment portfolio. |
|
|
|
Betting on bitcoin should be considered gambling rather than an investment.
Investment is something that has return of investment based on profit and yield on an asset.
Gambling and investing fall on the same spectrum. Some investments are simply more predictable than others. At one extreme, you have a coin flip which, though having a known probability of landing heads or tails, is a pure gamble. At the opposite extreme, you have investment into a bank savings account with an exact known compounding rate of return. Most investments fall somewhere inbetween. The main difference between investing and gambling is that, when you invest, you have information available to you that, if interpreted correctly, will give you sound insight into outcomes that have not yet occurred. If. for example, you found out some additional information that a coin that's about to be flipped was modified to give it extra weight on the heads side, then you would know that it's better to call tails. If you call tails every time with that coin, you will be correct more than 50% of the time given infinite trials. Investing in Bitcoin in some ways isn't any different than investing into a stock. When investing in company stock, you research the company (e.g. infrastructure development, company profit model, competency of executive employees, etc.). With BTC you can research market charts and graphs, sample community sentiment, research infrastructure development and adoption rates, etc. It's obvious that BTC carries more unknowns and more risk, but it's not a coin-flip gamble. This is a good explanation b/c dadugan was over simplifying the matter and suggesting that bitcoin is a game of luck. Even though there is some luck involved, bitcoin is NOT such a game of luck, unless you do NOT know anything about it. If you randomly chose to invest in some of the alt currencies, then that would be more analogous to gambling - unless you did some research on them and chose according to the results of your research. |
|
|
|
Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month
not in the Bitcoin world it won't. No one will pay you interest on Bitcoins. And you'd be stupid to give control of your coins to others regardless. Generally, I am talking about traditional investment vehicles that are used for retirement. With traditional investment vehicles, in which people are planning for retirement and to preserve the principle of their investment, investment planners tend to calculate a 3-5% withdrawal rate - 3% being conservative and 5% being more ambitious. The withdrawal rate assumes that the fund can on average generate that level of interest from a variety of investment assets - of course some years will achieve better returns than other years and some years will lose value.. Since we were talking in the bitcoin sphere, I used the higher rate of 5%. I was NOT strictly assuming that BTC would earn interest and I was NOT necessarily crossing any kind of bridge to talk about whether or how to secure the funds by diversifying them. But, since we are in the bitcoin sphere, I was using the higher rate of 5% in part based on higher expectations of BTC appreciation. In a traditional retirement investment portfolio, interest from such could be achieved through a diversified investment portfolio combined with a variety of stocks, bonds, index funds and precious metals (and even property investments or funds) - usually very little would be put into any kind of savings account b/c the anticipated returns are so low. In this case, the interest from such principle amount ($5 to 10 million) could ALSO come by assuming a 5% per year appreciation in the value of bitcoins - of course if a person was wanting to rely on a steady 5% withdrawal rate without eating into the principle, then that person may want to diversify the fund in order that all the eggs are NOT in one basket (the bitcoin basket). On the other hand, sometimes people become fairly bullish and optimistic about a certain asset class and fail to hedge their bets accordingly.. which may or may NOT be o.k. with bitcoin (each of us will likely have differing risk tolerances). Hopefully, that explains a little better some of my assumptions and presumptions.. .  |
|
|
|
I hope 1 bitcoin will be valued 1 million dollars so I would retire in few years...
I would NOT bank on that within the next 30 years... You need a better back-up plan b/c that seems to be a 1 in a million chance, which is NOT a healthy way to live, IMHBO.  I think that there is a chance that Bitcoin could be worth $1 million in 30 years - and that is about a $20 trillion market cap. Actually, the odds may be greater than one in a million... it could be as great as 1 in 10..... I really don't know, but I would put the odds at close to 1 in a million that BTC could reach $1million in 5-6 years.. that seems way too dreamy for me, and I am NOT going to take those kinds of chances... Others may NOT mind betting differently, and some of that may have to do with age or with other factors including already acquired assets and risk tolerance. |
|
|
|
 In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this. If you're right...I'll buy you one. Fuck it, I'll buy you 10. But somehow I think that's a little bit generous of a figure. We better save this post, just in case. Cbeast is going to want to receive his fleet of 10 leer jets.. .whatever is that model? |
|
|
|
I will retire yes, but only when i reach 100 btc then i will retire and sell it all my asset.
Meaning i will sell all 100 btc and the rest of coins that i have.
I don't get people who say things like this. If BTC goes through enough growth for 100 coins to be enough for retiring early in luxurious style, the bitcoin economy will be a pretty solid store of value by that point, have enough users to be a real economy in its own right and no longer so based on speculation, and you'd probably later regret your decision to transfer back to fiat. Just buy what you need with your coins. I agree that Azguard seems to NOT have thought through his plan very well, but he still has time to adjust, hopefully (unless he is nearing his 100BTC holdings amount). |
|
|
|
In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this. Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters. Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... . Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame... Well technically in 5-6 years it might look a little different http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01240/plane-crash-620_1240044c.jpgthere are anywhere between 12 mil and 30 mil millionares depending of the source of info. 50K would be 1/600 or 0.16%. I don't think that anybody would notice. Billionaires, on the other hand, would be noticeable  . That's a good point!!! I was pulling the number out of my ass somewhat regarding how many new millionaires and billionaires would result by giving a rough estimate. Of course we are going to have gradations of such wealth transfer(s), and maybe in the end, no one would really notice too much b/c some of the wealth would be transferred to new groups; however, some of the wealth would be kept with the wealthy and by the wealthy to move from one kind of wealth to another kind of wealth. At this time, it seems that quite a few of the already wealthy are beginning to get into bitcoin in order to prevent too much wealth being transferred to a bunch of snot-nosed tech geeks.... and some of this occurs during the consolidation periods and the pushing the price down and the spreading of the FUD in order to discourage some weaker hands and to buy up some of the BTC at lower prices. |
|
|
|
In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this. Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters. Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... . Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame... I don't necessarily believe that BTC will achieve such prices, either. But just for the sake of the argument: Why shouldn't this be possible? We've seen incredible rises before. Don't confuse the market capitalization with the price of a single Bitcoin. The price is and always will be determined by supply and demand, and therefore higher than the amount of FIAT that's been 'invested' in Bitcoin! Maybe you are a little more optimistic than me? but I still understand the difference between price of a bitcoin and market cap, and I totally agree that it is possible that BTC could reach $10 million per BTC at some point... BTW, that plane in the picture is priced at somewhere between $10 and $20 million, and that is a fricking lot of money... $1million per bitcoin would be about a $16 trillion market cap, and $10 million per bitcoin would be a $160 trillion market cap... and that is a big-ass market cap.. .NOT impossible to achieve, but quite an aspiration. Either $1 million or $10 million per bitcoin would signify that bitcoin has taken over a fairly large portion of the store of value and/or money transmittal mechanisms.... NOT impossible to achieve, but pretty dreamy vision of the destiny of BTC in the 5-6 year time-frame that we have been using in this thread... Now, in 20 to 30 years, more likely that BTC could achieve $1million or $10million per BTC, but still quite dreamy in my opinion - even though more likely than the 5-6 year time frame. I would be quite amazed if BTC reaches $50K per BTC by 2020... that would be an $800 billion market cap... $800 billion is much more in the realm of possibilities, and may even be possible in the next couple of years... but I have my doubts that BTC is going to move to an $800 billion or higher market cap without some considerable volatility and fight back from the various "powers that be." |
|
|
|
I hope 1 bitcoin will be valued 1 million dollars so I would retire in few years...
I would NOT bank on that within the next 30 years... You need a better back-up plan b/c that seems to be a 1 in a million chance, which is NOT a healthy way to live, IMHBO. |
|
|
|
In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this. Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters. Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... . Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame... Well technically in 5-6 years it might look a little different  OK>.. NOW you are getting a little wishy washy. Which scenario are you predicting the BIG grand one or the CRASH one? Can't we have some kind of middle-ground and reasonable prediction? It is the uneasy feeling that i get when I hear people predicting that BTC is all or nothing... that is ridiculous in my thinking b/c there is quite a bit in the middle that seems just as probable as the all or nothing predictions. |
|
|
|
I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this  Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income. Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work? On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such). There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that. Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million. I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again. But really, $20-30 million? Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such. |
|
|
|
A generally bullish sentiment means we're probably going down.
Yeah, I agree. But I'm not sure which sentiment we actually do have around here right now. Both sides are present. Bulls and Bears alike. And both parties don't like the stagnating price, even though they want it to go in different directions! Yes, we have a fine creamy latte-like blend... did anybody bring any sugar to this party? sugar is NOT good for you, and it is NOT necessary in coffee-like drinks |
|
|
|
Thursday is most bullish day of week. Friday is the bear whale's favorite dump day, and then by Sunday we will be in the $570s... if we're lucky. Sorry to be pessimistic my good sirs, but when you've played this game as long as me, it happens.
It does NOT happen the same every week, even though there may be a pattern. What kind of odds are you giving to your prediction... 90%? 60%? |
|
|
|
In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this. Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters. Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... . Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame... |
|
|
|
Buying 1 bitcoin should be considered insurance rather than investment. Same with gold.
It is a way to insure against total economic collapse.
Whether you call it insurance or hedging your investment bets, it amounts to the same thing, so long as all of your eggs are NOT in one basket. On the other hand, if you hedge too much, and fail to invest sufficiently, you will miss out on opportunities to dramatically increase your holdings... that is the risk of poosy-footing around too much and failing/refusing to take some risks. |
|
|
|
Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...
Probably almost better to tear it down and to start over; however, there are probably historical preservation laws that prohibit tearing it down... So instead, you just have to replace all the old bricks with new ones... or polish up the old ones..  |
|
|
|
We talk all big like bitcoin is going to raise or be the next currency. But I just thought, what about when the people currently using bitcoin die out? And take so many bitcoins that might not be returned to the blockchain if their family or friends either don't know said person had them, or don't know what they are.
As with any other assets which can be hidden (like gold/silver/cash stash) it's the owners responsibility to include their holdings in their will. This is definitely a problem b/c people may NOT safeguard their private keys adequately in order for the transfer of assets to their intended heirs. If these BTC become lost, then the whole BTC community become the heirs b/c the value of the remaining BTC goes up. |
|
|
|
I will retire yes, but only when i reach 100 btc then i will retire and sell it all my asset.
Meaning i will sell all 100 btc and the rest of coins that i have.
When will you arrive at 100BTC, and what will the price be? At this time, 100BTC is worth about $58,000. That does NOT seem to be enough to live a very comfortable retirement in most parts of the world... unless you assume that BTC prices are going to considerably appreciate and that you are keeping your money in BTC (or that you have some other asset that you expect to appreciate).. However, you already stated that you are selling all of your crypto, once you get to 100BTC... There seems to be some missing assumptions and/or logic in what you are saying. Can you explain your plan a little better? I dont have 100BTC yet. But yes i will sell them all when i reach this amount. I will probably hold them for a while untill price goes to my side of story. Also this wont happen soon so price can be much higher then now also it can be backfire down. Never the less i will retire when i have 100 btc how much other coin i will have that is not mater my goal is 100 BTC then am out. This plan makes LITTLE to NO sense; however, even a plan that makes little to NO sense could work out b/c your plan seems to indicate that you are prioritizing the acquisition of BTC rather than other assets - and if the price of BTC appreciates considerably, then your plan may work out just fine. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that BTC prices goes up in value by 30% for each year for the next 6 years: Year 1 (2015) = $780 Year 2 (2016) = $1,014 Year 3 (2017) = $1,318.20 Year 4 (2018) = $1,713.66 Year 5 (2019) = $2,227.76 Year 6 (2020) = $2,896.09 Then your 100 BTC would be worth $289,608.54, and in my thinking that would NOT be a decent retirement amount but you could live probably live off of it for more than 20 years, if you continue to let it grow and drew it down by $30k per year. On the other hand, if BTC prices go up in value by 50% for each year for the next 6 years: Year 1 (2015) = $900 Year 2 (2016) = $1,350 Year 3 (2017) = $2,025 Year 4 (2018) = $3,037.50 Year 5 (2019) = $4,556.25 Year 6 (2020) = $6,834.38 Then your 100 BTC would be worth $683,437.50, and in my thinking that would NOT be a decent retirement amount but you could live probably live off of it for more than 30 years, if you continue to let it grow and drew it down by $50k per year. Anyhow, my point is that your ability to live off of 100BTC will depend on a few factors, including how much and how quickly the price of BTC appreciates, if at all. Man this is cool and with that amount of money in ether case is more then ok i can buy several real estates and live on rents. Think that this idea is good not greedy but ok live on rent and that ok. Well, if you are satisfied with either one of those scenarios, then you would just need to plan to continue to acquire your 100BTC, and thereafter hope and pray that BTC prices appreciate to those levels, which I believe a lot of people in this forum would consider either scenario to be very conservative estimates. On the other hand, if BTC prices appreciate greater than the amounts described above, then you will need to accumulate your BTC earlier b/c you may NOT be able to afford to buy enough to accumulate to 100BTC. On the other hand (I am running out of hands), if BTC depreciates in value, then you can accumulate a lot, but they will NOT be worth much... hehehehe |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
