How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years?

[cbeast]

In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this.

Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters.  Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... .  Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame...

Well technically in 5-6 years it might look a little different

[asganauei]

I hope 1 bitcoin will be valued 1 million dollars so I would retire in few years...

[ensurance982]

In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this.

Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters.  Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... .  Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame...

I don't necessarily believe that BTC will achieve such prices, either. But just for the sake of the argument: Why shouldn't this be possible? We've seen incredible rises before. Don't confuse the market capitalization with the price of a single Bitcoin. The price is and always will be determined by supply and demand, and therefore higher than the amount of FIAT that's been 'invested' in Bitcoin!

[Biodom]

In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this.

Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters.  Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... .  Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame...

Well technically in 5-6 years it might look a little different
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01240/plane-crash-620_1240044c.jpg

there are anywhere between 12 mil and 30 mil millionares depending of the source of info.
50K would be 1/600 or 0.16%.
I don't think that anybody would notice.
Billionaires, on the other hand, would be noticeable  .

[Ektra]

I will retire yes, but only when i reach 100 btc then i will retire and sell it all my asset.

Meaning i will sell all 100 btc and the rest of coins that i have.

I don't get people who say things like this. If BTC goes through enough growth for 100 coins to be enough for retiring early in luxurious style, the bitcoin economy will be a pretty solid store of value by that point, have enough users to be a real economy in its own right and no longer so based on speculation, and you'd probably later regret your decision to transfer back to fiat. Just buy what you need with your coins.

[JayJuanGee]

I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this

Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income.

Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work?  On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such).  There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that.  Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million.

I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.

[JayJuanGee]

In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this.

Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters.  Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... .  Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame...

Well technically in 5-6 years it might look a little different

OK>.. NOW you are getting a little wishy washy.  Which scenario are you predicting the BIG grand one or the CRASH one?  Can't we have some kind of middle-ground and reasonable prediction?  It is the uneasy feeling that i get when I hear people predicting that BTC is all or nothing... that is ridiculous in my thinking b/c there is quite a bit in the middle that seems just as probable as the all or nothing predictions.

[DannyElfman]

20-30$ mil is way too much. Most people wouldn't be able to handle that!

[JayJuanGee]

I hope 1 bitcoin will be valued 1 million dollars so I would retire in few years...

I would NOT bank on that within the next 30 years... You need a better back-up plan b/c that seems to be a 1 in a million chance, which is NOT a healthy way to live, IMHBO.

[DannyElfman]

I hope 1 bitcoin will be valued 1 million dollars so I would retire in few years...

I would NOT bank on that within the next 30 years... You need a better back-up plan b/c that seems to be a 1 in a million chance, which is NOT a healthy way to live, IMHBO.

[JayJuanGee]

In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this.

Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters.  Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... .  Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame...

I don't necessarily believe that BTC will achieve such prices, either. But just for the sake of the argument: Why shouldn't this be possible? We've seen incredible rises before. Don't confuse the market capitalization with the price of a single Bitcoin. The price is and always will be determined by supply and demand, and therefore higher than the amount of FIAT that's been 'invested' in Bitcoin!

Maybe you are a little more optimistic than me?   but I still understand the difference between price of a bitcoin and market cap, and I totally agree that it is possible that BTC could reach $10 million per BTC at some point... BTW, that plane in the picture is priced at somewhere between $10 and $20 million, and that is a fricking lot of money... $1million per bitcoin would be about a $16 trillion market cap, and $10 million per bitcoin would be a $160 trillion market cap...   and that is a big-ass market cap.. .NOT impossible to achieve, but quite an aspiration.

Either $1 million or $10 million per bitcoin would signify that bitcoin has taken over a fairly large portion of the store of value and/or money transmittal mechanisms.... NOT impossible to achieve, but pretty dreamy vision of the destiny of BTC in the 5-6 year time-frame that we have been using in this thread...

Now, in 20 to 30 years, more likely that BTC could achieve $1million or $10million per BTC, but still quite dreamy in my opinion - even though more likely than the 5-6 year time frame.  I would be quite amazed if BTC reaches $50K per BTC by 2020... that would be an $800 billion market cap...   $800 billion is much more in the realm of possibilities, and may even be possible in the next couple of years... but I have my doubts that BTC is going to move to an $800 billion or higher market cap without some considerable volatility and fight back from the various "powers that be."

[JayJuanGee]

In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this.

Accordingly, you are suggesting some major transfer of wealth to us BTC "early" adopters.  Additionally, you are suggesting that there are going to be another at least 50K millionaires who will have come through the ranks of bitcoin investments... and probably at least 1,000 billionaires (those holding more than 1k coins).... .  Seems a bit pie in the sky in my thinking, especially to be achieved within a 5-6 year time-frame - but may be more reasonably achievable in the 20 to 30 year time frame...

Well technically in 5-6 years it might look a little different
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01240/plane-crash-620_1240044c.jpg

there are anywhere between 12 mil and 30 mil millionares depending of the source of info.
50K would be 1/600 or 0.16%.
I don't think that anybody would notice.
Billionaires, on the other hand, would be noticeable  .

That's a good point!!!   I was pulling the number out of my ass somewhat regarding how many new millionaires and billionaires would result by giving a rough estimate. 

Of course we are going to have gradations of such wealth transfer(s), and maybe in the end, no one would really notice too much b/c some of the wealth would be transferred to new groups; however, some of the wealth would be kept with the wealthy and by the wealthy to move from one kind of wealth to another kind of wealth. 

At this time, it seems that quite a few of the already wealthy are beginning to get into bitcoin in order to prevent too much wealth being transferred to a bunch of snot-nosed tech geeks.... and some of this occurs during the consolidation periods and the pushing the price down and the spreading of the FUD in order to discourage some weaker hands and to buy up some of the BTC at lower prices.

[JayJuanGee]

I will retire yes, but only when i reach 100 btc then i will retire and sell it all my asset.

Meaning i will sell all 100 btc and the rest of coins that i have.

I don't get people who say things like this. If BTC goes through enough growth for 100 coins to be enough for retiring early in luxurious style, the bitcoin economy will be a pretty solid store of value by that point, have enough users to be a real economy in its own right and no longer so based on speculation, and you'd probably later regret your decision to transfer back to fiat. Just buy what you need with your coins.

I agree that Azguard seems to NOT have thought through his plan very well, but he still has time to adjust, hopefully (unless he is nearing his 100BTC holdings amount). 

[JayJuanGee]

In 5-6 years one BTC will buy you this.

If you're right...I'll buy you one.

Fuck it, I'll buy you 10.

But somehow I think that's a little bit generous of a figure.

We better save this post, just in case.  Cbeast is going to want to receive his fleet of 10 leer jets.. .whatever is that model?

[jonald_fyookball]

  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month 

not in the Bitcoin world it won't.  No one will pay you interest on Bitcoins.  And you'd be stupid to
give control of your coins to others regardless.

[JayJuanGee]

I hope 1 bitcoin will be valued 1 million dollars so I would retire in few years...

I would NOT bank on that within the next 30 years... You need a better back-up plan b/c that seems to be a 1 in a million chance, which is NOT a healthy way to live, IMHBO.

I think that there is a chance that Bitcoin could be worth $1 million in 30 years - and that is about a $20 trillion market cap.  Actually, the odds may be greater than one in a million... it could be as great as 1 in 10..... I really don't know, but I would put the odds at close to 1 in a million that BTC could reach $1million in 5-6 years.. that seems way too dreamy for me, and I am NOT going to take those kinds of chances...   Others may NOT mind betting differently, and some of that may have to do with age or with other factors including already acquired assets and risk tolerance.

[JayJuanGee]

  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month 

not in the Bitcoin world it won't.  No one will pay you interest on Bitcoins.  And you'd be stupid to
give control of your coins to others regardless.

Generally, I am talking about traditional investment vehicles that are used for retirement.  With traditional investment vehicles, in which people are planning for retirement and to preserve the principle of their investment, investment planners tend to calculate a 3-5% withdrawal rate - 3% being conservative and 5% being more ambitious.

The withdrawal rate assumes that the fund can on average generate that level of interest from a variety of investment assets - of course some years will achieve better returns than other years and some years will lose value..

Since we were talking in the bitcoin sphere, I used the higher rate of 5%.  I was NOT strictly assuming that BTC would earn interest and I was NOT necessarily crossing any kind of bridge to talk about whether or how to secure the funds by diversifying them.  But, since we are in the bitcoin sphere, I was using the higher rate of 5% in part based on higher expectations of BTC appreciation.

In a traditional retirement investment portfolio, interest from such could be achieved through a diversified investment portfolio combined with a variety of stocks, bonds, index funds and precious metals (and even property investments or funds) - usually very little would be put into any kind of savings account b/c the anticipated returns are so low.

In this case, the interest from such principle amount ($5 to 10 million) could ALSO come by assuming a 5% per year appreciation in the value of bitcoins - of course if a person was wanting to rely on a steady 5% withdrawal rate without eating into the principle, then that person may want to diversify the fund in order that all the eggs are NOT in one basket (the bitcoin basket).  On the other hand, sometimes people become fairly bullish and optimistic about a certain asset class and fail to hedge their bets accordingly.. which may or may NOT be o.k. with bitcoin (each of us will likely have differing risk tolerances).

Hopefully, that explains a little better some of my assumptions and presumptions.. . 

[windjc]

Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.

[Marbit]

Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.

What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me.

[JayJuanGee]

Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.

What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me.

These are NOT wild guesses, if we are considering the market cap and how much storage of wealth could be contained within the bitcoin and also used for value transmission, plus additional public ledger features.