I just wrote a PM to ShroomsKit asking some questions about the current situation, however the reply came from falllling??
That's the OLD Fonzie that we used to know... spreading FUD>....  Welcome back. ROFL isn't falling your alt? Me and few members think that, or atleast he trolls as hard as you do  You have a rock in your pocket? or you mean the "royal we" think some silly theory? If you think that I am a troll or that I am trolling, then you (or yous) have a pretty perverted definition regarding what is a troll. |
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When will Ethereum be listed on Coinmarketcap? |
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ah, big players, whales and other mythical beings.
well, market does not give a fukk about them.
...until they paint the ticker. What if some big player in accumulation mode is buying directly from pools/OTC, maybe with the 'excuse' that is an ETF/institutional investors who wants just 'clean'/virgin coins. They would use an exchange price as reference so the accumulator would have a big incentive to sell some on the exchanges while buying more OTC to buy as low as possible. +1 This is what I have been saying too. I've thought about this theory for quite a while now. The only thing I can't figure out is how many coins they are buying from miners. The most they can buy from a large mining group that doesn't pay out its individual pool members is under 800 coins a day. So why dump so much to only get 800 coins for such a small discount? There are 3,600 new coins mined every day..... so a accumulator could have multiple buying contracts... therefore theoretically get up to 3600 per day if they were slick about it and were able to accomplish such. Where do you get 800 (which is only 22% of the total BTC mined per day)? |
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I just wrote a PM to ShroomsKit asking some questions about the current situation, however the reply came from falllling??
That's the OLD Fonzie that we used to know... spreading FUD>.... Welcome back. |
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Who can get me clear what caused this such panic, only leverages? Absolutely the answer will be no
No, simply no buy pressure to be found. No bulls to fuel a bounce. I'm starting to think we really need a good plunge, into the $400s perhaps, to provide momentum for a strong rally. Bulls are nowhere to be found -- except those holding from higher up. obvious ...people are not using btc....are holding ...no one new is flocking to bitcoin in the numbers we need vs the folks holding we could be sitting on this kinda flat/slow fall till next year... problem with that is consumer mining seems to be drying up as we speak w/o miners as 'cheerleaders' for bitcoin ..as such dries up...just a bunch of geeks holding coin...that thru FUD and other means press/gov't will make out as fraud ridden...thus less newbies...a world wide 'assasination of reptutation by the 'vested intrests" world wide.....like China is trying to do with bitcoin etc this could be long/hard and dismal ..and the more uncertain it becomes and price goes down the less likely them 'institutional investors' will jump in frigging 'dead cat bounce' http://deadcatbounce.weebly.com/what-is-a-dead-cat-bounce.htmlvs diffusion of inonvation (acceptance) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovationswell I'm in it for the long haul..if BTC goes to $10 so be it.....ride the puppy down in flames....(drank the kool aid don't ya know hard to be us 'pod people') myself if it stays above $150 usd I'm OK ...below that I'm toast...(pick your own USD oops moment)Searing My average buy-in price in is about $610... at the moment..... Surely, it is NOT comfortable to be in the red, but I have confidence and I am NOT planning to sell anytime soon b/c I cannot see prices being downwardly manipulated for too long... surely, we are getting some sustained lower prices today that were somewhat beyond my expectations.... My optimism about Bitcoin would begin to come into question if prices were to capitulate downward into the $200s... maybe getting below $270-ish for any length of time, would cause me to worry.... It seems that we are going to have a hard time getting BTC prices manipulated into the $400s in the coming weeks or months.... ... but NEVER say NEVER...... |
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I just sold whatever i had left. It's clear, Bitcoin is dead.
It failed. This year was make or brake. It broke. People lost interest. Everyone is getting out.
You have to be delusional to think the price will go up suddenly again.
Face it, this is the 5th or 6th year already. This is the time where it was supposed to happen and it simply failed.
People aren't gonna be suddenly interested again in 2 months again.
It's over. There is one way this will go and it isn't up.
You can't be serious Very. Good bye.... doggie bird!!!!!! |
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And for my last post, even bitcoin itself is telling me to go fuck myself (on the 15 minute chart).  O.k. Have a good life!!!!!! BYE now... |
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2014 is the year of bitcoin!  Remember that? I've got to hand it to the community, you guys did put on a good PR campaign. I'm glad I sold the last of my position a few days ago. If this is the year of bitcoin, I don't want to be part of it anymore  Bye, Bye!!!!!!!!! |
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Thanks for the response... and NO problem... I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s).. Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history. In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed. I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins. Year 1 (2015) = $655.50 Year 2 (2016) = $753.83 Year 3 (2017) = $866.90 Year 4 (2018) = $996.93 Year 5 (2019) = $1,146.47 Year 6 (2020) = $1,318.44 Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate. As I posted above ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723219.msg8205979#msg8205979): Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year. I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021. Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 = withdrawal amount = $39,478 = BTC withdrawal 26.04 = BTC in portfolio = 328.27 Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 = withdrawal amount = $41,057 = BTC withdrawal 23.55 = BTC in portfolio = 304.73 Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 = withdrawal amount = $42,699= BTC withdrawal 21.29 = BTC in portfolio = 283.43 Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 = withdrawal amount = $44,407= BTC withdrawal 19.26 = BTC in portfolio = 264.18 Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86= withdrawal amount = $46,184= BTC withdrawal 17.42= BTC in portfolio = 246.76 Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64= withdrawal amount = $48,031= BTC withdrawal 15.75 = BTC in portfolio = 231.01 I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501. However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%. Now THAT is a well done analysis! Nice work! So if I had $201,780, I could go buy 354 BTC today. If BTC were to rise 15% per year, then starting in 2020, I could take the prescribed withdrawals and, you're right, I could have a growing fiat amount in perpetuity...or at least, as long as BTC continued to rise 15% per year. Very well done. For what it's worth, I actually could buy 354 BTC right now (well, it might take me a week to move around some money). And it is worth considering! The only pesky problem is that the 15% would have to continue pretty much forever, or for at least 30+ years. I'm 46. If I stop working at 52 with $466K and change, I'd need that 15% to continue pretty predictably. If BTC is inconsistent...what happens in 2022 if BTC isn't $1743 on the date I need to withdraw, but instead, it's $871? Then I need to withdraw 200% more, which reduces my stash. I could survive that once, but it's a risky proposition! I'm also pretty much banking on a BTC rise to about $37,740 in the next 30 years. I need it to be that when I'm 25 years into retirement AND I'm also banking on the fact that that will have enough purchasing power, either in BTC or fiat, to buy me a loaf of bread. I've got a 2 year old (yeah, had my only kid at the age of 44) that I need to think about, as well. It's a solid analysis and it definitely meets the original criteria, though. And it's actually, in theory, possible for me to do! But I think I'll just be thankful that I actually like my job for now! I came to my above numbers by plugging the various assumptions into an Excel spreadsheet. If you know about Excel spreadsheets, you could input these kinds of various assumptions into your own Excel spreadsheet and then play around with the variables (and the assumptions), including the timeline and including tweaking the year by year growth.. and maybe even convert into a quarter by quarter monitoring or month by month monitoring. I would NOT necessarily suggest purchasing 354BTC at the moment, unless you feel that your other liquid investment assets are sufficiently diversified in order to tolerate such a weighting of your allocations towards BTC... In other words, it is likely that you would NOT want to place all (or most) of your eggs into the one basket that has a number of assumptions that may NOT play out... Yet, on the other hand, if BTC experiences exponential growth in any of the earlier years (or quarters) within the next 6 years, for example, you may be able to withdraw early a portion of your BTC holdings in order to diversify and to better protect against downside risk and maybe even reinvest at a later date (on the dips) a portions of your withdrawn fiat back into BTC. By the way, from my own personal investment into BTC, I have a little different plan than the one that I outlined above. I have a pretty good chunk of BTC (well over 100BTC); however, BTC occupies less than 10% of my total quasi-liquid financial holdings... but currently, I am investing a large quantity of new money into BTC. I am anticipating some BTC bubbles in the future, which will cause me to reconsider the percentages allocation towards BTC. Though currently, I am NOT really opposed to allowing my percentage allocation towards BTC to increase to a considerable quantity so long as the growth in the weighting of the investment towards BTC prices has been caused by the appreciation of BTC prices, rather than caused by my putting more fiat into it..... and so long as I consider the BTC fundamentals to remain strong in the present and into the future projection of what seems to be happening in the BTC space (such as adoption rate increasing and investment rate increasing and liquidation opportunities increasing). In the end, with BTC, it seems like we likely need to tailor our plan to our own circumstances and risk tolerance and assumptions and then to continue to monitor our plan as the space presumably continues to grow and develop. |
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I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me. My last number-crunching was for 2019. I came in around $2340. If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000. Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation. I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/My number is significantly different, because: --He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element. But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff. It shouldn't have been additive. --I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value. --I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market --In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations.. I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners. If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional. Yes, you can quote me. Feel free to refer to this post in 2020. This sub forum's predictions have become a manic-depressive joke. When bitcoin was flying high back in Nov 2013, everyone was convinced the price would hit 10K by the end of 2014. All the TA, trendline charts, predictions, and polls were all screaming the same mantra. Now that we've been in a bear market for some time, everyone has turned a complete 180 degree bear/pessimist, and now is pushing out their 10K prediction to at least 2020 or later, at least 6-10 years from now. Fkn hilarious. I'm sure when bitcoin starts flying high again, possibly end of this year or early 2015, everyone will be utterly convinced AGAIN that it'll hit 10K by mid or end of 2015. And they'll all be saying "I told you so!" but it will be the SAME people here today making their pessimistic 2020+ predictions.  If you are referring to any of my posts in this thread as being among the pessimistic ones, I am just "playing along" with fairly conservative posts to show the numbers for such conservative but steady BTC increases within the posts - even though I tend to be much more bullish regarding my thoughts about the potential for exponential BTC price appreciation. NONETHELESS, I remain of the belief that we cannot necessarily bank on the more bullish and exponential price scenario taking place - even though we can put ourselves in a position to profit considerably from a more bullish scenario were it to occur. |
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Don't go bringing Jimmy Buffet quotes in here. He said himself to stay away from commodities.
Jimmy Buffet eh? yeah this guy .... [img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Jimmy_Buffett_1.jpg[img] Yes, that gentleman is a billionaire investor and he specifically said in an interview earlier this year to stay away from bitcoin.  That would be Warren? what is it with you and names? first "sagon" and now "jimmy" where do you get this from ? Also that ol dude is as slippery as an eel - talkin' his book Kireinaha is a teenage troll. I mean come on, its obvious. Everyone please stop feeding the teenage troll. NOPE>>>>>> he is an adult, who is trying to get away with some of his stupidity by acting as if he is a teenager, but it is all a ruse.... He is a troll, though...and certainly a FUD spreader.. |
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@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?
I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time. When you say you have lost $5K how exactly did you lose it? for not taking action at the right moment when my sentiment changed, in other words lost the chance to make a $5K more... Ohhh I see so you lost out on making $5K not lost $5k - there is a difference... you cannot lose something you never had... you missed an opportunity.. the old 20/20 hindsight psychology... that my friend is a bad road to go down.... you have got to admit... losing a hypothetical $5k is not much to cry about and also far far far better imo than having sold and have the market jump against you upwards by $200 then you really would have actually made a loss.. and the market will do it to you ake no doubts about that, if you play that game long enough....it will bite you... far better to cry over the hyptohetical loss of gains you could have had than to take the hit imo... far better.. never cried about it, if I would start crying, I would cry about not going all out at $1060 instead of selling only 10-15%, BTW I didn't have that much of BTC , I had less than 100 BTC, and I've never used leverage, I tried trading on Finex only once and it was fraustrating so I stopped using it. Yes... your facts do NOT add up. You supposedly only had 100BTC through your BTC investment, but then you said that you sold half of your total BTC portfolio in order that you could live (retire) for two years.. or some bullshit like that. Then you suggested that you were some kind of BTC wealthy b/c you had a low buy in cost, but you would NOT specify exactly your buy in price but it was somewhere between $10 per BTC and $100 per BTC. But then you sold a bunch of your BTC to buy LTC.. during the time that LTC was tanking and therefore you made a bunch of money on LTC.. .supposedly... NONE of this really adds up... So why are you telling us stories and continuously switching your story around in order to attempt to make it seem as if you are making a lot of money and to seem as if you are smarter than the rest of us b/c you got into BTC low and then you got out high.. when that does NOT seem to be the case? especially if we delve into some details of your supposed ever moving and shifting description... which frequently you avoid providing too many specifics b/c you cannot quite get your story straight b/c your story keeps changing and improving regarding how wise you are. |
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@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?
Mmitech makes things up as he goes along. He is like how you, Fonzie, used to be... However, he (mmitech) is much dumber than you used to be. |
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That is part of the reason that some people in this thread deem you as "retarded" b/c you cannot seem to differentiate concepts, and what makes it worse is that you fail to recognize your inability to differentiate concepts and then to insist upon your own inadequate view of the way that things work in the world.
sold some at $1060, $980 and $630 and the rest yesterday at $585 and I was right from February till today, I got one wrong call that Risto had right, but sure you can cry about me being a moron.... at least I try to analyze thing, you are just emotionally attached to your investments. I do not know what emotions are  Yeah... your rendition above is ridiculous Mmitech... even your description of the facts is probably selective.. b/c likely you sold yesterday at $560-ish.. that's what you said yesterday during the "crash"... just sold... No one is jealous of you.. you can do what you like regarding your supposed BTC and/or alt trading and other purported investment(s)... However, your attempts to get others to follow your investment (trading) lead does become irritating... especially, since you have a very limited grasp on the ways of the world and various market dynamics and even seemingly screwed up religious limitations that supposedly restrict your ability to earn interest (which seems contradictory to your purported investing/trading in various monies), and it seems that you are merely lucky, if we could actually believe your after-the-fact rendition of what you supposedly had done. |
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Doesn't matter, I'm selling now. Time to get out fellas. Bye, Bye!!!! |
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Even the most ardent long term investors are growing tired of the slow bleed down and want to drop this under performing investment. So that's what we're seeing now... it's not manipulation.
You can't blame them; asking people to hold a stake in relatively new technology that has been in a bear market for 9 months is a pretty tall order, and at this stage in the technology life cycle, is a pretty good indicator that interest has simply dried up and moved elsewhere. We all know the "honey badger" and all that, but continuing to hold in this kind of market is basically a leap of faith.
O><K.... sell... Good bye!!!!  |
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Nothing to do with school, I am just surprised we are back here again.
ok ... so do you have a wife or children? I usually do this with hand drawn pictures as the example but today I think fingers suit better...
So say you have a wife and children ? How valuable to you (and them) are their fingers? to me they are WORTH nothing... and the PRICE I give you for them
on the open market is $0
Lets switch this around- do your wife and childrens fingers have any VALUE to you? if so how much are they WORTH to you? and what PRICE will you pay to keep them all in one place with fingers attached to loved ones? more than my PRICE of $0? I bet and why is that? it is because they have more VALUE to you then they do to me, for me the PRICE for your loved ones fingers is $0 for you I imagine and hope a very large figure lets say $100,000 or more
something something <snip>
look above, I did read to the end of that line and there you lost me.... a value of thing is not determined by my self only, it is determined by a whole community, if we think that the value (call it price if you want) of 1 Liter of milk is worth 1$ but then one farmer based on the miracle of grass and water going into the cow and turning out as milk (and shit and pee) think that that liter of milk is worth at least $1000, that farmer is going to have some bad time selling his shit. but if 20% of farmers think so then there is 20% of greedy motherfuckers, because 80% disagree. we can go on and on trying to define this (I am wrong with the possibility of being right), but I personally am not buying that theory, wherever I go I pay €€ as a value of a thing. the value translate to that €€ and I didn't see yet in my life a community agrees on something having more value but lower price!!! in fact that just doesn't make any sense to me. Edit: did read to the end and I just realized where your confusion is, you are defining the filthy capitalism. Further evidence of refusal to learn.. or even to try to learn... or to understand basic concepts: so sad..  much cry..  Almost to the point of being hilarious... |
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I don't believe in charts or past trends. I just have a "gut feel" that price will go up in long term. Holding until it goes below $400 or above $700. Will buy more below $400; sell some when above $700.
HOW LONG are you going to wait on either of these scenarios? Surely, your plan remains potentially decent if your time line is 1-2 months, but if there are market movements within the next 1-2 months (even within your range), these potential market movements could affect your stated plan, possibly? or if the timeline drags on, then you may need to reconsider varying your plan, no? |
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Anyone noticed that the value of Bitcoin has risen quite a lot the last half year, regardless the price of bitcoin?
Whoa what do you mean by that? The price is the measure of how valuable a Bitcoin is, isn't it? I don't seem to be getting what you're trying to say here. Please enlighten us, man The utility of bitcoin is the sum of the benefits derived from its applications by its users. The value of bitcoin is the size of its transactional economy over a given period. The price of bitcoin is wherever the market happens to clear. Only in the case of perfectly rational actors under perfectly efficient condtions will these three coincide. I don't agree, this is just delusional stuff you are talking, a value of a bitcoin is exactly what it can be exchanged for (in terms of goods and services) compared to what can a dollar (or gold, Euro, Yen...) be exchanged for. Edit: with this logic: gold has no value and a visa card have more value than a Bitcoin.... see this is just horseshit. No ... that is the PRICE of Bitcoin, not is VALUE, they are two totally different things (and WORTH is different thing all together again) PRICE is arrived at often where supply meets demand, and the demand of something comes from how much VALUE is placed on it by people -VALUE is usually quite subjective whilst PRICE is not. SUPPLY - DEMAND VALUE - PRICE PRICE is what you pay and VALUE is what you get. This is stuff people should learn in high school and I cannot believe this conversation is happening at all tbh I don't care what they taught you in school but a value of a thing is what it can be exchanged for ( which in our age is compared to the currency we use)...the price is defined by supply and demand. your logic is the following: a horse shit value is very high because it can be used for agricultural needs, but because there is no demand and the supply is high the value didn't meet the price, is that what you want to teach me ? LET'S face it. You cannot be taught...... YOU have already demonstrated that Over and over and over and over and over. That is part of the reason that you are RETARDED!!! such sad so embarrassed  much cry |
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Anyone noticed that the value of Bitcoin has risen quite a lot the last half year, regardless the price of bitcoin?
Whoa what do you mean by that? The price is the measure of how valuable a Bitcoin is, isn't it? I don't seem to be getting what you're trying to say here. Please enlighten us, man The utility of bitcoin is the sum of the benefits derived from its applications by its users. The value of bitcoin is the size of its transactional economy over a given period. The price of bitcoin is wherever the market happens to clear. Only in the case of perfectly rational actors under perfectly efficient condtions will these three coincide. I don't agree, this is just delusional stuff you are talking, a value of a bitcoin is exactly what it can be exchanged for (in terms of goods and services) compared to what can a dollar (or gold, Euro, Yen...) be exchanged for. Edit: with this logic: gold has no value and a visa card have more value than a Bitcoin.... see this is just horseshit. That is part of the reason that some people in this thread deem you as "retarded" b/c you cannot seem to differentiate concepts, and what makes it worse is that you fail to recognize your inability to differentiate concepts and then to insist upon your own inadequate view of the way that things work in the world. |
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