Btw what makes you think people aren't using trade bots already? (In case it's not clear, this is a rhetorical question)
I never said people weren't already. So what's your god damn point about no dark pool orders then? Are we done with these childish posts and are you going to finally admit that the market has less info with dark pools then they would have without? Actually don't bother answering. Raulo, yes small volatility sure, but not 40 or 50% swings in price in a mater of hours. Please realize that these swings happened because the market was getting incomplete information for a longer period of time, especially because we can only see up to 27% under spot bids and 73% over spot asks and just because dark pool orders. |
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My point was that 90% of all trade being concentrated on mtgox and them providing a skewed picture of supply and demand is the cause of this crazy volatility.
And davout one more time, no one but the person who placed a dark pool order knows about it. Anyone can use a trade bot and everyone can see their bot working. I really really don't understand what is so hard to get about this? I also don't care what this forum has had endless dabates on and the conclusions you drew from those debates if they are wrong.
Btw what makes you think people aren't using trade bots already? (In case it's not clear, this is a rhetorical question)
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I already did so. I withdrew everything from mtgox before I wrote the OP and deposited in tradehill.
I mean, go make your own exchange Don't need to, there already is an exchange that offers perfect transparency. Oh and ty for proving my logic is correct seeing as you have to attack my character (a control freak) instead of my arguments.
Control freaks are people who say "everyone needs to do this now because blah blah blah" instead of "i'm doing this because i think it's smarter", and I don't usually lose time with control freaks. In conclusion: I wrote this post with the intention of raising this issue and making a plea to everyone who shares my hopes of success for Bitcoin. I don't care what mtgox does, they can do whatever the hell they want. But please listen to me and please strongly consider switching over to tradehill.com where there are none of these shenanigans and we can all see everything and make educated decisions about what our Bitcoins are worth and maybe just maybe maintain a more stable price, stable enough for merchants to see it as a viable option and adopt it.
Thank you. Ah yes, I'm such a control freak, real nazi, right? 
As for your logic, remove dark pools and people will use trading bots (and then you'll probably start complaining about how 'unfair' they are, and about how they leave you with 'incomplete' information, and how the world is going to collapse if people don't listen to your insightful rants).
Wrong. Anyone can write a trade bot. No one can see dark pool orders except the owner. You continue to amaze me with your "sound" logic. |
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Which sane merchant would want to receive such a volatile commodity in return for his goods and services?
After what I saw this weekend I will be recommending that my friend offer the intraday low for staying in his hostel. If you as a customer think this is just a wobble in the price you can always wait a day for it to go up. I'm not sure if you are serious. If you are I suggest you ask 20 merchants if they'd want to use a currency that can have 40% daily swings and see how many you find. My bet is not one would. |
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I mostly just wanted to talk about the guy screwing up the chart at TradeHill with his $999.99 ask price!
Tradehill needs to sort that kind of rubbish out quickly. That is irrelevant. It doesn't matter what they draw on a graph, they can change that all they want. I don't care if mtgox shows only 10% under spot bids and 10% over spot asks if they at the same time have the entire depth table available. But that's not the case, not only they do not draw all the bids and asks they don't even provide the depth table. Plus if you look at the depth of tradehill on bitcoincharts instead you can see a perfect picture of how the supply and demand looks like. |
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I already did so. I withdrew everything from mtgox before I wrote the OP and deposited in tradehill.
Oh and ty for proving my logic is correct seeing as you have to attack my character ("a control freak") instead of my arguments.
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You are wrong stakhanov.
Mtgox can either be completely transparent or not. It can either give out all the available information or they can withhold information. This might not be of crucial importance in a particular moment but a market that doesn't get to see the full supply/demand picture is bound to swing in the wrong direction to far which then causes massive corrections and price volatility which is something we absolutely do not want.
I'm not saying that if mtgox was completely transparent we wouldn't have had the correction from the $31 top all the way down to almost $10, but what I am saying is that if mtgox was completely transparent we wouldn't have even reached so high and needed a correction in the first place.
And if enough people understand this and there is an exchange that offers complete transparency, and there is, people will switch and mtgox will have to adopt or lose it's customers. And that, sir, is a fact of life.
EDIT: Oh and I find you are being hilariously ironic with your false statements in your post about there being no perfect information in the real world and your signature under it offer a gadget with perfect information for your desktop. Good job.
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Which sane merchant would want to receive such a volatile commodity in return for his goods and services? Are people around here forgetting that merchants aren't being merchants just for fun, it's their fking bread and butter and we better have stable prices if we want them to trust Bitcoin not to fk them over out of their bread and butter.
I strongly believe that what happened this weekend had everything to do with lack of transparency and information required to make good decisions on what to charge and what to pay for Bitcoins. We are big enough, it's time we end these shenanigans and switch to an exchange more transparent. I know I have.
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They don't need to do jack.
It's a free market, no one is forcing you to stay with mtgox. Just switch to somewhere where they'll treat you better.
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The result of this poll will perfectly illustrate my point that I made here: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=16032.0The point being that there's not enough transparency and people are basically just guessing and causing this crazy volatility. |
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Drawing charts is one thing, providing the full depth table with all the orders no matter the volume is another. Right now mtgox does not give out the full depth table, even via the API.
People can't be expected to make good decisions with incomplete information, all they can do is make educated guesses at best which eventually lead to mistakes and when mistakes clump up we get a crash which then hurts Bitcoin's credibility.
Transparency is the only way to success, so please, find a different exchange that has full transparency.
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Lots of issues, for sure. will these issues be worked out? or more correctly asked, can these issues be worked out?  They will be worked when more people spend their Bitcoins on products and services so that the actual economy is larger than the speculative economy. Wrong. We will first have to have stability before we can have more products and services offered for Bitcoins. This kind of was my whole point in the OP. For this to happen market needs transparency. In the past 48hours we had: trades: 28,004 for 346,324.23btc or $5,920,117.86usdWhoever thinks we still need to grow to achieve stability is kidding themselves. I've experienced way smaller and stable markets in online games where pure supply and demand ruled and it all had to do with full transparency of all the trades. We don't need to grow, we just need all the information available so everyone can make better decisions. Oh and again, I'm not asking mtgox to change how they do business, I'm asking you, their clients to reconsider and switch to a different exchange, one that reveals all the available information, like tradehill for example does. |
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This is like blaming the mirror for your face.
No. It's like a girl blaming a crooked mirror for messing up her make-up i.e. completely justified. |
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Don't believe me about the depth table rule?: [22:38] <hazek> hey man
[22:40] <MT`AwAy> hi
[22:40] <hazek> ppl told me you wrote mtgox
[22:40] <hazek> would you be so kind and explain to me how the depth table works
[22:40] <hazek> what are the rules on what get's shown and what doesn't
[22:41] <hazek> for orders that are far from spot
[22:44] <MT`AwAy> I didn't write MtGox, however I maintain it
[22:45] <MT`AwAy> and have written a new one to replace the current one
[22:45] <hazek> well would you know the answer anyway?
[22:47] <MT`AwAy> there's a rule a 0.73/1.73 if I remember well
[22:47] <hazek> so 27% under and 73% over?
[22:48] <MT`AwAy> something like that
[22:48] <hazek> ok ty |
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This is a serious problem and I sincerely hope you are able to read this post as objectively as you possibly can.
First let me define what successful Bitcoin means to me: It means Bitcoin is used on a daily bases and on a large scale to facilitate trade between people.
It does not mean Bitcoins have to be worth a specific amount of something else, it does not mean the price needs to keep rising, it does not mean people aren't losing money speculating about their value.
Now that I've cleared that up I will get to the point of this post. I think we all already understand that one of the main factors that will play a huge role in Bitcoins success (as I defined it) is if merchants adopt it as a payment method. This is one of the biggest obstacles we face and even though we're still in it's infancy and we already have quite a few merchants accepting it I think we have a problem.
The problem lies in what is happening with the spot price this weekend. These huge horrendous fluctuations aren't problematic because speculators are losing money, no! they are a problem because merchants can't possibly trust Bitcoin to keep it's value if they accept it for their goods and services. And yes I know there's options trading going on where they can insure themselves but I just believe that's too much of a hurdle and also wipes out any profits they gain by not paying fees to traditional online payment service providers.
Simply put Bitcoin absolutely needs some semblance of price stability in order to be considered by merchants as a viable option.
So what does that have to do with mtgox? Well I believe they create an environment where people are making a bunch of bad decisions based on incomplete information. First big problem are the dark pool orders that hide a potentially huge chunks of oversupply or over-demand from us. Then they have this ridiculous 0.73/1.73 depth table rule where they don't even show all the orders placed and active. That's right, they only show bids with a price from spot to 27% below and asks with a price from spot to 73% above.
Essentially everyone gets to see a partial picture of supply and demand with 3 times as much asks as they see bids, and that's even if we could see the hidden dark orders.
How are people suppose to know what is a good price in such an environmental? How is the price suppose to remain stable if all everyone ever does is at best educated guessing about what their Bitcoins are worth? The answer is obviously they can't. Hence the horrendous volatility of the past 60hours or so.
If we want stable prices, the market needs to have all the information in order to make educated decisions.
In conclusion: I wrote this post with the intention of raising this issue and making a plea to everyone who shares my hopes of success for Bitcoin. I don't care what mtgox does, they can do whatever the hell they want. But please listen to me and please strongly consider switching over to tradehill.com where there are none of these shenanigans and we can all see everything and make educated decisions about what our Bitcoins are worth and maybe just maybe maintain a more stable price, stable enough for merchants to see it as a viable option and adopt it.
Thank you.
tl;dr: mtgox creates an environment of imperfect information which causes crazy volatility which then hurts Bitcoin's credibility and chances of merchants picking it up as a viable payment option and ultimately it's success. Please switch to an exchange that offers full transparency, like tradehill.com for example does!
p.s.: I'm not in anyway affiliated with tradehill, I do have an account that I created today but I wont even give you my referral code because I don't care where we move our trades, as long as we can see all the information like we can on tradehill.
p.s.2: I have more Bitcoins right now then I had before the volatility started so you can't attribute this post to any sort of rage or anger on my part.
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OP don't tell me you are that guy who said he was going to put his life savings into Bitcoin?
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I'm surprised that no exchange seem to think paysafecards are a useful payment method?
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Wouldn't it be best if we called them digital tokens instead of currency to avoid government regulations that are meant for currencies.
I mean I'm sure there are different laws for barter then there are for trading currencies..
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