In memoriam...of something https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrpSay what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore. Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation). XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations. The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) . I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security. After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now. Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations. Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc. Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind). We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago. Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute. It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race. Fuck XRP and good riddance. And fuck Eth too for that matter. Accredited investor schemes are there for a reason. And the reason is because Aunt Mabel can’t be trusted to get caught up in bumblefuck Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect. So she goes screaming off to her Senator for a resolution. And the resolution is that Aunt Mabel isn’t allowed to play with the big boys anymore. There are plenty of accredited investors that do their dough all the time. But they aren’t supposed to whine about it. If you have 40 BTC right now, you are an accredited investor. And that amount is falling all the time. By the end of this bull it might be 5 BTC or less. why is it always about personalities? Not my problem, but it is a factor causing less meritocracy in finance/investment. I posit that it is a significant long term problem. You think that SEC is not btc problem? They (and some other lettered entities) can always made up some if prodded hard enough. SEC is not a BTC risk. There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC. Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP. There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same). The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins. Bitcoin dominance will soar further. Wrong, or at least a 'yuge simplification. SEC could affect derivatives, etc. Is WBTC a security? What about LN or Liquid? Wham, bam. Plus, they are working in cahoots with all other agencies (too many to mention by name). |
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Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".
Nuff said.
I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary. Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000..... Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves).  It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher. So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it. Bitcoin does not care, of course. Why can't we have a correction down to $60k (or to say $75k) from $100k? Would that be a significant correction? Hell yeah. But now, frankly I don't see a reason for a correction. No FUD, no overheating (we are not in the parabolic phase), no inflation so why should we go down now? if straight up from here, it will not get to 100K with 99% probability. WTF you are so concerned about corrections...leveraged a bit too much, lol? |
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In memoriam...of something https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrpSay what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore. Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation). XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations. The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) . I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security. After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now. Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations. Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc. Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind). We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago. Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute. It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race. Fuck XRP and good riddance. And fuck Eth too for that matter. Accredited investor schemes are there for a reason. And the reason is because Aunt Mabel can’t be trusted to get caught up in bumblefuck Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect. So she goes screaming off to her Senator for a resolution. And the resolution is that Aunt Mabel isn’t allowed to play with the big boys anymore. There are plenty of accredited investors that do their dough all the time. But they aren’t supposed to whine about it. If you have 40 BTC right now, you are an accredited investor. And that amount is falling all the time. By the end of this bull it might be 5 BTC or less. why is it always about personalities? Not my problem, but it is a factor causing less meritocracy in finance/investment. I posit that it is a significant long term problem. You think that SEC is not btc problem? They (and some other lettered entities) can always made up some if prodded hard enough. |
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Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".
Nuff said.
I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary. Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000..... Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves). It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher. So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it. Bitcoin does not care, of course. |
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People "should" root for a correction because we are already overextended on a temporary basis and if we would keep going vertically UP, then we will reach the "blue" NUPL sooner than later and undergo a large correction. This ALWAYS happened before.
Having a "nice" 19% correction to 23Kish would allow up to keep going much further.
It either corrects or it doesn't I don't see any reason to root for it, unless you are either short or you sold too much too soon. And, contrary to what you seem to be suggesting has to happen, bitcoin no doesn't work like that. We don't "have to" have a correction in order for UPpity to continue, especially based on underlying bitcoin fundamentals, if happen to understand or recognize what those happen to be, instead of trying to treat bitcoin as if it were some kind of a mature asset class. I did not sell any..."I am the one who BUYS"... vs you, who is always selling stuff under some "program". In short, if it is not "mature", then why sell at all? |
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People "should" root for a correction because we are already overextended on a temporary basis and if we would keep going vertically UP, then we will reach the "blue" NUPL sooner than later and undergo a large correction. This ALWAYS happened before.
Having a "nice" 19% correction to 23Kish would allow up to keep going much further.
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I agree with @JJG, some people cannot move due to their personal situation, and when they move en masse-we have terrible problems.
Large scale population move is something close to impossible, unless you are going into an unoccupied space, like Mars.
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In memoriam...of something https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrpSay what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore. Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation). XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations. The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) . I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security. After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now. Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations. Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc. Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind). We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago. Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute. It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race. |
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In memoriam...of something https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrpSay what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore. Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation). XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations. The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) . |
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Willy Woo
@woonomic
The growth in capital flowing into BTC is now equivalent to Apr 2017 of last cycle. The early bull phase is over, the main phase has started; it's come early.
hmmm...peak in July 2021? Interesting...that would be a first one. I still think that we might be going for two peaks in 2021: first one in March-April, followed by a "valley" during summer, next, a larger peak in Nov-Dec (traditional time frame). Something like 50-70K to 30-35K, then to 150-200K. |
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$26,200 and $26,100 orders eaten @ Gemini. Let's see how long $26,000 holds for another $250.
Got filled @ $26,000 I might put one in at either 23K or 20K, or both. 28k to 26k is a smallish dip. |
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Eth
Know that I am desperately seeking a way to cut your bitch-ass over the internet right now. Whoa whoa man... I'm innocent. It was Biodom who started! O:-) you thought that I meant that, but I didn't... . |
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'buying' right now at about 11.98K 10.6K/btc (EDIT: sorry, forgot about 13% tax) ...making Bob jelly Phil knows what I am talking about  . My TA says we are running too hot right now. Currently we are at the March 2021 price and it’s only December so we are roughly three months ahead of schedule.
Likely scenarios are:
1. My TA is shit
2. We are aiming for a 2013 crash (although I would say we have not yet gone parabolic so this is a lower risk)
3. We will stagnate at this price for 3 months and everyone will get bored
4. This time it is differentTM and This Is Gentlemen please pick the colour of your helicopter (not black)
5. We are going to have a mild dump heading into early January and then bounce.
Personally I’m going with option 5.
yes, 5, but not mild, unless 25-30% drop is mild, could last into March-ish. |
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Page parity today? Soon. Up to 26841 now. it's getting to tomorrow's price today. |
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Welp, I've always said in my mind that if whales want to load up on an undervalued asset right before a big bull run, the best time to do that is in December when Average Joe is completely tapped out due to XMas.  well, they have to do it before Dec 30 so they can sell on Dec 31 next year and get LTCG.....if they want to trade. BTW, Musk is getting late with his dilly-dallying and memeing. Bitcoin did not give him time, lol, especially if new rumors about Ray Dalio's fund are true while PTJ, Bill Miller and Druckenmiller are all "killing it". I hope that we will be below 38K by Dec 31 2020, though, because if we are above, it would mean that we are truly overheating (more than 100% a month) and about to undergo at least a multi-month dip/decline. |
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btc is back at 70% dominance..is 80% possible?
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25K to 100K is not really "price action", it's a huge amount of money that needs to pour in. 250K, well, it's even much more bigger !
But I will not bet against it either.
It's not just about money. If supply is very reduced because few people are willing to sell and also because of the deflationary nature of bitcoin, less money is needed to make the price go up. The flip side being that if nobody sells, the price can't go up anymore either ! I think it would be a great sign if nobody wanted to sell a single bitcoin at a certain price. It will never happen though. There is plenty of supply available, the price just needs to get to the point where it shakes some loose. For instance, I'm guessing more than half of the bitcoin ever created would be available for sale right now at $1million each. There is no shortage. It just seems like it because the price is so low. Who would sell now when they know what the next year has in store? The question is: why "old school" money managers from Citi to Fidelity now gave btc price targets (next year!!) of 300-400K or even more? From my previous encounters with finance, analysts loath making predictions of more than 2X current price, with 30-50% up or down being the most typical. Here they went 15-20X. I am not sure why? One possible explanation is they are trying to make the curve to go hyper-exponential, then pull the "rug" from under and collapse it. Or, maybe, really strong WS money already accumulated enough in $5K-20K range and now want a rapid rise to cash out. There must be some play here, but what is it? Of course, it is possible that me are witnessing financial "regime change", but much more data is needed to support this. Serious people have said that the only thing that can stop btc is very high interest rates. In one playbook they will go for high inflation, causing btc to climb super high, then as inflation is established, smash btc down by sudden increase in the interest rates: going from super negative real rates that we see at the moment to positive rates, which would mean, say, 10-15% interest rates a la Volcker shock. |
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This price action makes me think that a $250k + top is much more plausible that a $100k top  The current currency system is dying.It’s no longer a cringe part of a hidden sub culture in society who knows this. It’s no longer the Peter Schiffs of this world proclaiming the end of fiat systems. It’s a (close to critical) mass that is contemplating this now. All in the open and for everyone to see. And it’s simple math determining that this will accelerate. 20% of all dollars in the world created this year alone. Next time, will it be 40%? And the next thereafter? Will the new stimulus bill go to $4 trillion (6.6% of all money (in broad terms) in the whole world)?  Will the next stimulus bill be $8 trillion? The talks about the $1 trillion coin seem a long time ago (those were rookie numbers ). It’s happening because it’s inevitable. Greatest. Wealth. Transfer. Ever. I fear the highlighted. I cannot force myself to go 100% in btc (with some others sprinkled about), just because being 100% in does not give any wiggle room. I detest spending btc, so need $$ to do that, but you cannot rely on btc up down moves to provide enough $$ as it might catch you when it is trending down, but you need cash ASAP. In addition, is there room in bitcoin for everyone-maybe, but only at truly astronomical prices. I see an investment "credibility gap" somewhere between 100K and 1mil. Institutions might still go for it, though, but your average Joe would not buy something that costs 100K, however, at 1mil and above it probably would be stable enough for that Joe to simply use some lower size unit (bits, sats or whatever) for small item transactions. |
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Bitcoin maximalists make the fundamental mistake of forgoing profits (BTC profits) in favor of talking shit from on their high horse. The market makes clear time and time again that it does not value decentralization nearly as much as you do. It's not like all money must flow to the one true decentralized coin.
Exactly. In each major bull run, the big money was made in ... altcoins. But in this cycle, I have yet to see a meaningful start of a bull run in the alt market. Will it be different this time (I suspect not; big boys are accumulating as we speak)? They do, but what? candidates: DOT/KSM-likely ADA-possible Dark horses: ALGO (too many coins?), Blockstack (STX), Hedera (HBAR, also too many tokens), Theta (I have no idea why it is rampaging up) Defi (AAVE, COMP, YFI, UNI, SNX)-one or more of those. YFI looks interesting from the usage perspective, but too "rich" per unit. It's not a bitcoin, lol. the rest of defi-where is the value in governance tokens? Name your candidates...just for luls. |
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It might feel nice to treat a shitcoin badly, but as I said before, don't expect to be treated any differently by the populace at large when our time comes (to be under some kind of pressure) and it will come at some time with 99% probability. I don't care to post it, but many attack vectors are theoretically possible and I don't like any of them.
However, I still hold btc since I think that in almost all cases we eventually persevere.
The difference, I think, is the level of commitment and resilience. Are we comparing shitcoiners and bitcoiners? Seriously? I am saying that bitcoiners would become "shitcoiners" in the eyes of the 95% of the populace under certain conditions. The Golden rule says: treat others as you want to be treated. I am not particularly fond of "minority" opinion treatment here and that includes "poor" mindrust (or was he mindtrust? I don't recall). |
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