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Fooking Ledger!!!
What the heck...
I will not use them...wishing a speedy corporate destruction/bankruptcy...Ch 7
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that's btfd for Billionaires wow, single-handedly reversed the am dip. |
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Well, Well, Well this has been a good run, I wonder what is going to be this runs top, I am still feeling a top around 40k.
This is complete speculation, fully pulled out of my ass.
Depends what you mean by top. I figure the 2020/2021 bull run tops out somewhere in the $300k-$400k range, but we'll probable have a few corrections along the way... maybe the first one around $30k. Yes, 300-400k sounds possible and 40K could be a first top in a double hump, however, 40K is too low for a full cycle top since so far we ALWAYS corrected at least 80-85%. 20% remainder of 40K is just 8K, which is lower than prior ATH, which so far never happened. 80% drop from 300K is 60K, which is more inline with the priors (from 400K would be 50K, also quite doable). |
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Sunday read... A provocative article about climate change and who will benefit (I have my doubts): https://www.propublica.org/article/the-big-thaw-how-russia-could-dominate-a-warming-worldAn interactive map as to what happens with your NA city climate in 60 years (mine will be hotter by 2.3oC and wetter in summer, 5.5oC hotter and drier in winter): https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/Conclusions: when thinking about your descendants, buy RE in the Northern belt of US states, Canada, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland. Toronto becomes New Jersey, Portland becomes Sacramento, both San Diego and San Fran become LA, Montreal becomes Philly. Anchorage becomes close to Vancouver (wow!). The Baltic sea will probably become a new Mediterranean with a balm climate (the map is only NA, but you can project based on the first article). People might go on a warm beach vacation to UK, lol. I would focus on WA, OR & Canada, but Cali still looks good. The first article projects that Canada, Russia and Sweden GDP will increase tremendously, while US would stagnate. Not sure if I buy it. |
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it does not apply to private hodlers sending bitcoin to each other. only when it touches a companies wallet. which means that every US btc owner will transfer his/her coins to self custody in the next 14 days. less coins available on exchanges = bullish for bitcoin. I have some difficulities figuring out what to make of these proposed practices that seem to have decent chances of going into effect. Yeah, of course, they create greater obligations and pretty much deter HODLers from moving their coins to a private wallet, and we still need to know how the fuck the exchanges are going to verify this beyond a mere statement from the HODLer that the wallet that they are transferring to is their own wallet. Yeah.. burdens.. and perhaps will create some incentives for the creation of more underground kind of transactions.. I am not really going to change too much of what I am doing currently, and will see how it goes. My personal bitcoin exposure on exchanges is way smaller than it was in 2015/2016, which might have been around xx% or more of my holdings were on exchanges. Then in about mid 2017 I downgraded to somewhere between about xx% .. and currently, I just looked at it, and it appears to be around xx%-ish... ( edited my disclosed percentages for reasons.. hahahaha... you fucks!!!). I am just going to ride it out, and see what it does. I have already been KYC'd on those on exchange coins anyhow, and I was not even considering transferring those coins out, even within a variety of scenarios, including having to report them.. those are merely coins that could be liquidated on a BTC run, if I were to so choose.. and yeah, sometimes moving coins around and changing your system based on fucktwats.. whether governments or otherwise, can cause issues too, but I understand the motivation and rationale that comes from what seems to be proposed currently.. and there are likely BTC HODLers who are way too overexposed in terms of NOT even having coins under their own control, and these kinds of proposed practices should cause some reflection upon risks that they are taking in that direction.. and whether that risk is sufficiently balanced. This is another example of unanticipated risks of Bitcoin, especially of the Big Rhino variety. My worry (for years) has been that while the Bitcoin Ecosystem is essentially unbreakable itself (managed properly by HODLers), it is the Entrance and Exit Ramps that are vulnerable to strict controls. It is clear enough to me that Bitcoin will come under further scrutiny and regulation as .gov loses more and more control (and their financial need/greed rises exponentially...). Any doubts that .gov will likely grow ever more authoritarian? Look at England locking down London right now... Since no one can predict the future (and major technology changes), prudence suggests not holding too much of net assets in BTC. I understand (and accept to a degree) the arguments of "betting on the fastest horse" (etc.), but there are ample precedents showing danger of being too concentrated. Just now I read above about Elwar's Satoshi project not working out due to, yes, a Big Rhino problem. The NICE BUMP up in BTC price has been useful for me. I very recently sold a smidge, continuing my strategy of taking some profits. BTC rose to well over 1% of my net, yet my sales were not enough to drag that down to the ~1%. One should not be afraid of diversification and taking some profits along the way in an asset that really does look to be world-changing. Taking some profits along the way, however, does not lessen my enthusiasm for this wonderful new asset class that Satoshi (et al) have invented for us all. 1%? I am sorry, but this only makes sense if your total capital is $10mil or more, otherwise it would not make a dent (if you constantly keeping it at 1%). Here are some interesting US stats, suggesting that you cannot afford to be the middle class anymore. Some examples are probably coastal as you can be pretty comfortable at $160K/year around here. Also, teacher salary at 115K? It is unheard of here (TX). https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22166381/hollow-middle-class-american-dream |
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A fast spreading strain of Covid-19 has emerged in England, this mutation is 70% more transmissible.
London and South East in tier 4 lockdown.
Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Czechia, France, Ireland, Austria and Germany suspending flights and train arrivals from England.
This is not looking good, fingers crossed if it does not effect vaccine effectioness.
More transmissable!=more deadly The virus evolutionary "success" is in propagation, therefore it is always optimizing for transmission vs "killing" "you got 'them masks...I'll show you.."...13 freaking mutations-that's a long branch. In the other news...Elon...lol. |
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Nice pic, but here is my "scientific rebuttal". On a flat surface, the horizon is 3.1 miles away. On a 100ft hill, the horizon is 12.2mi away. Let's say, the horizon is 10mi away, but i can see another citadel in any direction, therefore, Citadels are in approximately 10mi grid, which means roughly 4 citadels in 100 sq miles, which could mean about 380000X4=1520000 citadels in US size area, give or take, more or less the same for China and Canada, in Russia-up to 2.62 mil "citadels". Therefore, the number of citadels approximates the number of btc at this density  Conclusion: either much less citadels OR at each citadel top is the "Emperor" with less than 1 btc. |
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Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices.  Thank you Bitcoin. Do it! Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future). Now is actually months away. This is just the land. I'd still have to build a house, Personally I wouldn't trust any builder that's not approaching retirement age. Brick layer training used to take 7 years. Now it's three months. I've seen too many people suffering from new build badly build houses to trust anyone young. We cannot print them, still  ? Around here they build houses using OSP wood. When I first saw it, I was horrified, but, apparently, they are OK for at least 50 years (if no grade 4-5 hurricanes). Will not stand for hundreds, most likely. How old are the builders building them? Experienced 50/60 year olds, or 16 year old dickheads? How do you know how old the builders were when you view it? The salesman's never going to admit it was built by dickheads. Totally agree, I would never hire a young guy to build the new house, but how many times you build a new house for yourself? Maybe not even a single time. I did it just once so far and at that time I did not know anything about houses. It (and the roof) survived a direct hit by Ike, though, which was a very large (in diameter) hurricane, but winds at 110 mph or less on landing. Builders here 100% employ mexican contractors/workers, typically middle age. They are experienced, but there is not much choice otherwise. You hire a contractor for the job, who knows who he/she would employ-you have almost no say in that. |
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Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices. Thank you Bitcoin. Do it! Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future). Now is actually months away. This is just the land. I'd still have to build a house, Personally I wouldn't trust any builder that's not approaching retirement age. Brick layer training used to take 7 years. Now it's three months. I've seen too many people suffering from new build badly build houses to trust anyone young. We cannot print them, still ? Around here they build houses using OSP wood. When I first saw it, I was horrified, but, apparently, they are OK for at least 50 years (if no grade 4-5 hurricanes). Will not stand for hundreds, most likely. |
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Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices. Thank you Bitcoin. Do it! Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future). Now is actually months away. This is just the land. I'd still have to build a house, although in the spring I could still drop a trailer on the land for weekend use. The big problem is converting my coins into dollars and paying capital gains taxes. I don't have (nor want) a bank account. Luckily I have one paper wallet (my largest) which can be traced to my identity, containing about 30 coins. Hopefully that will cover it. Great...a race between the Canadian RE appreciation and btc. My money is on btc, but we already know that That said, I am envious as canadian weather, especially in the summer, is closer to my liking than 100F in Houston. Most likely I would go for WA or OR, though, as I can stay in Canada only for 6mo straight (although it is probably enough). pine or spruce>palm (in my book) |
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I guess this feels similar to when we busted our 1k ATH... Feels nothing like when we hit 20k last time. ........
#HODL' good times!
.... I agree with you -- For the most part I was referring to the current sentiment. I feel like this 20k is closer to when we broke 1k ATH and we have much more room to grow. Let's say we remove the need to sell for living expenses and the original goal was to one day exchange corn to fiat. I feel that as BTC continues to grow, people's urge to swap to fiat will drop. Years ago or just asking a nocoiner what they think they need to retire, the typical answer is in fiat terms. I see this changing over time as BTC grows. Still far from that at the moment but that is the direction I see things moving. I assume it won't be in BTC terms either... maybe a basket of digital assets that return a predictable rate. tdlr; hodl.  You had me nodding all the way WastedLTC, until you mentioned the basket of digital assets bullshit. We should be trying to stay focused on bitcoin here rather than entertaining shitcoin talking points... .. O.k. Maybe I am overreacting a bit, but fuck the shitcoins and the " basket of digital assets" bullshit.. that's a distraction to what bitcoin is actually offering.... sound money... helrow?? you are simplifying it too much. You are selling btc for cash, he might be selling for USDC or USDT, then getting 10-11% in interest. USDC is certainly a digital asset. Not sure why would someone call USDC a shitcoin, although it might be proven to be just that in eventuality. How much yield do you get on USD? A minuscule amount, no doubt. |
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A lovely good morning Bitcoinland. Another day another ATH... currently $24080USD/$30795CAD (Bitcoinaverage). Go Bitcoin go. ___ Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices. Thank you Bitcoin. Do it! Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future). Most people say 2020 was shit.. I beg to differ
So far bitcoin is the best thing that happened in 2020 , im sure everyone here agree ! it certainly is the best, but i would have taken bitcoin at 18K, heck even 14K at the end of 2020 WITHOUT all the other shite. Right now, cannot even go anywhere-checked my antibodies-negative at the moment, RNA-based vaccines give me jeepers-creepers, protein-based vaccines are behind, unless you fly to central EU to get it and even then, it is a russian vaccine with no history yet. |
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cat vibing to btc chart...awesome!
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Bitcoin is almost 12 years old already, but I believe what we are witnessing right now is best described by the Salvador Dali picture and it's name: "Geopoliticus Child Watching the Birth of the New Man"  |
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^R you that naive?
Yes, you are.
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.. so it seems to me that shaving off some lil corns along the way or just consuming goods and services here and there does not really seem like a bad thing.. including the considerations of consuming some other kinds of investments if anything strikes the fancy of the HODLER who happens to have way more than 90%+ in bitcoin, largely due to BTC price appreciation rather than being irresponsible in any kind of way related to how such BTC HODLer had acquired such BTC in the earlier years.
Yes, but it is just strategic thinking 101. For a more advanced course consider that rich rarely sell their assets and btc is precisely that-an asset. When you sell an asset, you get hit with the cap gains tax (at least in US), I think that at least Germany and Portugal (maybe Denmark as well-not sure) don't have cap gains on btc sells. What do rich (like Musk) do? They borrow against the asset in $$. Let's say that instead of selling 20% of btc at 20K (for easier calc) you borrow 20% of the net current value at yearly 5% (realistic numbers). So, essentially, you got cash equal to 20% of your stash without selling anything. If btc goes down, you keep paying the loan from your fiat cash flow (it has to be significant and positive, of course). If btc goes up, for example 100%(to 40k, quite realistic), you sell 10% to buy back your loan (note that you only need to sell 10%, not 20). The end result-you have 90% of the original stash, was able to do something with 20% of the original value (invest, buy a house, etc), paid only less than half tax (comparing to the original tax) with less than half because you can possibly deduct something of the loan interest, not 100% sure about that. How do you propose to manage margin calls? 20% LTV means margin calls are unlikely. It has to drop more than 80% from the current price. For more-You can buy crazy puts on ledger X or Deribit-it should not be too expensive. |
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Ok I’m calling the top for 2020 at $23,777.
Let’s see how well this comment ages. I am not trading this but just calling the top for fun. YMMV.
blasphemy... I kind of agree, comparing to 2017 except to "bottom" at either 20.8K (if Nov repeats) or maybe even 16500-18800 in March 2017 scenario. I don't root for the dip, but we are a bit exuberant right now. |
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.. so it seems to me that shaving off some lil corns along the way or just consuming goods and services here and there does not really seem like a bad thing.. including the considerations of consuming some other kinds of investments if anything strikes the fancy of the HODLER who happens to have way more than 90%+ in bitcoin, largely due to BTC price appreciation rather than being irresponsible in any kind of way related to how such BTC HODLer had acquired such BTC in the earlier years.
Yes, but it is just strategic thinking 101. For a more advanced course consider that rich rarely sell their assets and btc is precisely that-an asset. When you sell an asset, you get hit with the cap gains tax (at least in US), I think that at least Germany and Portugal (maybe Denmark as well-not sure) don't have cap gains on btc sells. What do rich (like Musk) do? They borrow against the asset in $$. Let's say that instead of selling 20% of btc at 20K (for easier calc) you borrow 20% of the net current value at yearly 5% (realistic numbers). So, essentially, you got cash equal to 20% of your stash without selling anything. If btc goes down, you keep paying the loan from your fiat cash flow (it has to be significant and positive, of course). If btc goes up, for example 100%(to 40k, quite realistic), you sell 10% to buy back your loan (note that you only need to sell 10%, not 20). The end result-you have 90% of the original stash, was able to do something with 20% of the original value (invest, buy a house, etc), paid only less than half tax (comparing to the original tax) with less than half because you can possibly deduct something of the loan interest, not 100% sure about that. |
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What's that, exactly? Coinbase going to Wall Street? Serious question. yea, once SEC deems S-1 effective, a company can sell shares in the IPO and began trading on Nasdaq or NYSE. Probably going to be either COIN or BASE. CBAS is too weird (almost sea bass, lol). |
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