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2861  Other / Politics & Society / Re: NSA killed Sillicon Valley on: June 12, 2013, 01:29:02 PM
The NSA scandal was the nail in the coffin for Sillicon Valley in my opinion.

Why would any business or private person trust US-based IT-services or software when they are spied on?
Non-americans should boycott american IT-companies as much as possible and instead use services based in neutral countries, for example Germany.

In the longer term Im sure we will have p2p based hosting services with high security and no corporations, governments or boundaries, just like bitcoin mining. But til then, we got to boycott Big Brother companies such as google and facebook.

Sorry, but you have to be a fool to be surprised by news like the Snowden case, etc. It's so obvious that both Governments and private corporation are violating privacy at their will, both for business and intelligence purposes.

That's why we have to avoid all that Facebook, Google, Skype, Microsoft, Apple crap.... At least whenever possible, because it's really difficult to be completely "off". And that's why we have to cheer both Bitcoin and Bitmessage, and all the open-source solutions that technology can offer to protect one of the most valuable things we have: our privacy.
2862  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Avalon batch [2] countdown! on: June 12, 2013, 12:55:56 PM
I got it today. Black unit, 3 modules.

#16xx

Order: Feb 18.
Shipping Info: Jun 10.
Delivered: Jun 12.
China

All time in GMT+8

Grats. Did you get an email about your order or did it just show up

Emailed me the shipping info.
Can I say "Fxck!!"?
I am 13XX ordered on Feb-18 but received nothing.

Hey Wayne, dont get angry yet, there are many others delayed waiting orders before you Tongue

Errrp... Durrp.... Hip.....

I think I'm switching to Vodka, too much wine, been drinking non stop since April, 5th

2863  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 12:53:44 PM
+1.5kBTC panic buyed from $110.5 to $112. Who pulled the trigger in here?

I didn't, because....



Wink
2864  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 11:34:28 AM
Well, only 682 coins to reach $110. It looks it will happen. Who's panic buying in here, apart from Adam and everybody who's already all-in? Cheesy



2865  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 11:30:34 AM
Asks piling up all the way to $110. The sellers will become nervous sooner or later, there are too many coins till $110 and no buying pressure whatsoever. Someone that bought from $100 to $105 has to decide wether to sell at a profit at $108 or panic sell and probably lose money if a seller get tired to wait and dumps as few coins as 700-800, pushing the price down.


I just don't see it in the market depth on Gox. Where are you getting your numbers from?

For example, just looking at the sum of buys and sells within $8 of the current price of 109, I see Asks at 10k and bids at 9k. That has been getting better the last few days.

Now, I'm not saying we don't go down, but that is what the depth is saying (and easily manipulatable I know).

Another thing to consider, on many of our minds, is that 15k order on Sunday that stopped the downward movement. I wonder who would do that as they could have bought in slower and gotten a better price.
Is it going too far to say a lower price of Bitcoin would increase adoption? There has been evidence that a higher price keeps people away. Funny, perhaps some people want to keep the price up for
that reason. We don't know, but something to consider.



Right now we have 9100 coins on the ask side to reach $116.5, and 7925 on the bid say to go to $102.

It's true that the depth is slowly improving, but still volume is too low. I'm not discarding a mini-rally, if $110 is broken there will be some panic buys, but IMO those will be short-term moves. Mid term, I'm seeing a bear market, hinted by the crash to $88 this weeked, which will be confirmed if we crash again and $79 is broken on the downside.

2866  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 11:25:49 AM
Everyone who holds anything else as investment except bitcoins has diversified to the detriment of their financial interest.

well done. Hope you have managed to keep hold of most of them.

Yes, I haven given away about 2,000,000 and 1,000,000 has been stolen but I still have some.

Sorry for usage of millibitcoin

1,000,000 mBTC stolen is quite a sum. $109k at today's exchange rate, probably MUCH more in the future. Do you know how that happened? Any hints of who could be the thief?

Maybe there is a chance to recoup them.

"Giving away" 2,000,000 mBTC sounds pretty crazy too.

Anyway, keep on going with the mBTC thing, sooner or later we will need to start using that for sure. Hope MtGoxfinally starts using that denomination, the psychological factor is important for people, and buying "one coin" for +$100 sounds "too expensive" for the average Joe, even if it's nonsense.
2867  Economy / Speculation / Re: If you're not out, get out. on: June 12, 2013, 11:20:57 AM



shortly:
When I look at the development of Bitcoin prices for 12 months:

Last year in June, it was possible to buy Bitcoin for around $ 5
In January this year about $ 15
in April this year about $ 55
now $ 88

Even if it was half the price than it is now, it would be appreciation of 900%.
This is not a bad investment for me Wink

I think Bitcoin it's been a good investment for 99% of the members on this forum. Some noob may have bought at $200 and panic-sold at a loss after the April, 10th crash, getting burned, but IMO that would have been a terrible mistake, as they should have just holded or played with the market to lower their average entry price. Bitcoin's minimum potential is 5 figures of $ per Bitcoin, everybody with half a brain understands that, but it is not a get-rich-quick scheme. There is high volatility and high risks, but also huge potential gains.
2868  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 11:15:42 AM
Everyone who holds anything else as investment except bitcoins has diversified to the detriment of their financial interest.

well done. Hope you have managed to keep hold of most of them.

Yes, I haven given away about 2,000,000 and 1,000,000 has been stolen but I still have some.

Sorry for usage of millibitcoin

just fine. I remember your preference for that.
Looks like next up-leg underway as $110 crumbles.


it hardly crumbles

It clearly does.

It will crumble when it crumbles. Still standing ATM.

Anyhow, breaking $110 can be a good sign for a short-term rally to the $120s... But still it's nothing definitive in the sense of "the bull market is on". The bull market will be very likely when we break $135 on the upside, and will be a FACT when $166 falls. Till then, the bears are still ahead.
2869  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 10:55:13 AM
I told, I have three things I need to do in bitcoinworld to make it $300/mBTC this year.

Then they took me to a mental institution, and what I wrote, could not be established without me. Even now, it is unlikely that I will be the sole contributor. But please take a look about one of the three pillars. When something is not good, comment to add. It is not ready, and I am under medication, for which reason I also cannot talk as sharply as I could normally.

What happened to you?

Quick hint:





Anyhow, welcome back Risto.
2870  Economy / Speculation / Re: If you're not out, get out. on: June 12, 2013, 09:58:40 AM


Someone mentioned it recently, that the 2013 "bubble" deflate is more like the August 2012 shock than the 2011 bubble.
If so, then it could easily oscillate around $100-$120 for the rest of year, only to begin a further climb in 2014.

In that case more than a bubble deflating it would just have been a correction.

Honestly, that could be still possible, but I don't think so - the hype cycle and speculative mania in March-April was so blatant I doubt we won't see further visits to $80, possibly $50, I won't even discard going deeper than $50 for a bit (but not much deeper, and if I'd have to take a bet, I'd bet that we won't go lower than $50).

This hype cycles always work the same, a lot of new guys are attracted by the parabolic growth, fiat start flowing to exchanges like a river in the rain season, and when the price crashes that money flow just slowly drains out... It's a slow process, fiat pours out of the exchanges slowly, but it pours out because so many of the new guys entered the market just for the quick buck.

Still, there is significant % of the guys attracted by the hype that end up understanding BTC, and they fell in love with it... The core of hardcore-believers is growing, even if the fiat is slowly pouring out. So, we will probably see very cheap coins soon, but nevertheless Bitcoin is stronger than ever.
2871  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 08:58:26 AM
Bid and ask sum stable. Volume decreasing. Triangle closing.

I would close any long position.

2872  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 12, 2013, 08:17:20 AM
Closed because of this pennant. I really dont like it



And look at that decreasing volume. Well, cheap coins ahead.
2873  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: CanadianGuy - self admitted scammer on: June 12, 2013, 08:10:39 AM
Scammer tag for those not honoring bets would be good for the forums. Let's not forget that a bet involves money, and if "CanadianGuy" would have won, he would have gladly taken the money. If he loses, he doesn't pay - win/win for him, and definitely a scam.

I would even go further and apply a scammer tag to the jokers that a) create auctions and then do not honor the winner because the final price is not high enough, without having established a minimum price; b) do not honour their bids in auctions; c) pump the price in public auctions with "bids received by PM" that nobody can verify.

I know that all the above is not technically a scam (well, probably C is), but some control to the auctions subforums would do good to everybody. Otherwise, half of the auctions are just an ugly way to lose time.
2874  Economy / Speculation / Re: If you're not out, get out. on: June 12, 2013, 07:24:47 AM
We have to admit at that time, this kind of posts caused discomfort among everybody. BTC had never proved to be able to resist what he was facing: bubble pop followed by slow and continuous decline, negative media exposure, etc... We all knew it was not a "ponzi", but still, it was not empirically proved that it could resist the stress it was under.

This is why I always say that this is no 2011. This time the doomsayers are mocked. Most of the people is sure that BTC will rise again stronger sooner or later, even if it goes to single digits for a while (which won't happen IMO). The ones who sold, are just waiting for cheaper coins to load the truck. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" has empirically proved as a false statement, nobody with half a brain could say such a thing in 2013. In 2011 it was different.

Bubbles have to burst all the way down before growth is resumed. But this time the bottom will be higher than most 2011-butthurt-bears expect.
2875  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 07:04:59 AM
Asks piling up all the way to $110. The sellers will become nervous sooner or later, there are too many coins till $110 and no buying pressure whatsoever. Someone that bought from $100 to $105 has to decide wether to sell at a profit at $108 or panic sell and probably lose money if a seller get tired to wait and dumps as few coins as 700-800, pushing the price down.
2876  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 07:00:33 AM
I wonder when Loaded will come back to stop the downturn.  Perhaps we need to say his name three times.

Loaded, Loaded, Loaded!

Loaded = The Winklevoss twins? Cheesy

Anyhow, he just comes here to say "this is going to be an interesting week"... Las time just after the San José conference. And that week nothing happened, it was boring as hell Cheesy
2877  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 11, 2013, 11:23:55 PM
Is this a Goomboo Bot Spike?


This was the 10/21 crossover early on June 10 - I missed it because I was asleep but it seems to be holding

the spike made the crossover,  the crossover did not make the spike.

Correct, little grasshopper

Cheesy
2878  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 11, 2013, 11:08:57 PM
Burning people with BTC seems indeed more effective than simply banning it.

There were many burned in the 266 crash, but overall I think a crazy market is an magnet for speculators.

if you want people to run away from BTC you need to really skyrocket it to the moon to then crush it to the closest to 0 as possible. That wont cost hundreds of millions, that will cost billions ATM, and every year that passes this kind of attack gets more and more expensive.

Which would be a lot of free money. And the lower it crashes, the more demand there will be. It's a zero-sum game with the FED loosing all the time.

A crash from $266 to 50 is nothing (1/5). A crash from $32 to $2 is nothing (1/16). That's volatility.

A 1/10,000 crash... Well, thats something. That's "a ponzi" that hugely rewards the first in and first out and leave holding the bag everyone else. But still, money it's not infinite even if it seems to be, the burning has to stop at some point... BTC market will always be manipulated as all the markets are, including and especially the commodities ones (prominently gold and silver), but the more BTC grows, the more expensive it becomes to effectively control it. So, this may be an obvious attack to BTC (manipulation), but an expensive one that has an uncertain outcome. I'm also convinced that BTC would survive.
2879  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 11, 2013, 10:45:59 PM
BTC is so tiny that the FED could just buy enough BTC to make it skyrocket in en epic pump, then crash it to single digits, creating a few notable fortunes and ruining millions of people on the way. Burning people with BTC seems indeed more effective than simply banning it.

If they do this I'll thank them. It would be easier for them to wire me the funds directly though.

Well, I'd say you would be in the "few notable fortunes" group. Adam too. TheKoziTwo, too. Coinseeker, no, because he has probably dumped all his coins for XRPs Cheesy
2880  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 11, 2013, 10:42:58 PM
We're already past the point where half of the coins are in circulation. But think about the bold bit of your quote. You are suggesting they could kill bitcoins by giving to bitcoin owners the market value in fiat.
That is not killing it, that is embracing it. They would need to buy many bitcoins, I don't know what your definition of slowly is, but you are suggesting they would provide continuous demand for BTC. By the time they dump them, the markets will gratefully eat them and ask for more.

I think the point is that a government actor could most easily destabilize the BTC market this way, and in doing so, make it too risky to use.

A billion dollar market is a tenth of a rounding error to a large government, and if this was carried out in the name of "national security," the costs would be irrelevant (and classified) anyway. They wouldn't care that they enrich a few thousand people in order to shut down a way for evil-doers to finance their operations.

This is an interesting idea to play with, but IMO, highly unlikely. I think they are more likely to apply the necessary pressure to the weak points in the system in order to track and monitor the movement of large sums.

It's true that 1 billion cap is tiny, but to buy enough coins to really control the market in a "definitive" way you need to spend A LOT more than its seems, supply is very limited, and for this kind of attack you really want to expose as many people as possible to your stunt - traders are not afraid of volatility, if you want people to run away from BTC you need to really skyrocket it to the moon to then crush it to the closest to 0 as possible. That wont cost hundreds of millions, that will cost billions ATM, and every year that passes this kind of attack gets more and more expensive.

And then, do not forget that Satoshi never moved a single coin. He controls at least 1M BTC. He's holding to be able to neutralize any deep-pockets attacker Cheesy (tinfoil hat mode off)
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