Interesting tidbit for many here: "They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value" Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now? Just b/c they hold certain status positions in the bitcoin space does NOT mean that they are correct in their prediction(s). We will probably know at the close of business on Friday or possibly by Saturday whether they were correct, or NOT. |
|
|
|
All human systems will be gamed.
A quick ride to 800 is not all that unlikely, after the auction. It is major resistance after all. I would expect an initial continuation of the down-trend, as those who want the auction to pump the market are disappointed, and give up. When they are done, and the fiat is warmed up, then the upside will be seen.
Look at the last two swings. The upswing was quite rapid, and the downswing relatively gradual. Most people are trained on equities. They know that bull markets are gradual things, climbing a proverbial wall of worry, while bear markets are panic driven, often rapid, sometimes sudden. But in pair trades like BTCUSD, either component can be in a bull or bear market, so inverting the chart, we see that the current condition is characteristic of a bullish swing in USD, following a quick bearish swing during the latter part of May. I would not extend this interpretation to the November spike because the topping phase of a hype cycle is a very different dynamic, with different motivations.
What I draw from this is that holders of BTC have a need of USD. Given the volumes we are seeing, it might even be that a single seller is driving the trend. The 500/8hr guy finally succumbed to his wife's insistence on diversifying into u.s. equity mutual funds like all the "wise" financial advice (propaganda) would insist. (Sorry dude, you are doomed now, unless you can hold those funds until 2040 and USD can last that long.)
I don't think the USD bull market can last much longer. USDJPY is certainly turning. Very different dynamics, of course, but post-SCO outlook for USD is changing rapidly on several fronts. Faith in ECB persists while faith in FRB is flagging. Trade is being re-denominated (and simultaneously shrinking) so that US fiat exports face lower demand. RMB floats in 2015. Iran is exporting a lot of oil to China now.
I'm simplifying for brevity, telling a story by telegraphy.
Who cares what you think? I wanna know what monkey thinks.    |
|
|
|
Reading about mmitech issue makes me wonder...
How do the Muslims deal with banks? Interest = 0%??
serious question.
If I understand it correctly , Muslims are not permitted to earn interest on money, this is "Riba" and is forbidden. What they can do is receive rent for an asset they own - so a Muslim may buy an apartment, a physical good, and receive rent for allowing someone else to use it. Given that bitcoin is not a physical thing on which one can earn a return I would have thought it was a bit of a grey area for Islamic finance anyway. Equities are ok as are securitizations as in those you buy the right to a series of cashflows that derive from a real asset, bitcoin hmm, tricky. Yeah... the IRS rule clarification may have helped to declare bitcoin as property rather than as a currency... but in any event it is very conflicting to weave through the incorporation of such a practice in the modern world while maintaining various financial investments. |
|
|
|
This thread is becoming unbearable
if people like shroomskit stopped bashing on every analyze or a prediction or a question and simply not take everything personally this thread would be cleaner, but well this is what happens when the price is not moving. as I said before, Bitcoin needs bubbles for its survival, if that doesn't happen soon, the community will simply kill it. What do you mean by: "the community will simply kill it"? He probably means that the community is so addicted to bubbles that they need another one soon or they start suffering from bubble withdrawal symptoms and die as a result. You can just look at mmitech and already see the early symptoms.  +1 hehehehe... mmitech..  if you can figure any of that out |
|
|
|
So we're stuck at 569 until Friday then?
supposed to be 567, don't you know about numerology? |
|
|
|
That double bottom though  Eh, second bottom slightly lower than first. Plus this happens all the time and another dump puts us lower. Double bottom does not work with bitcoin. Double top usually does. I thought that we had a consensus that BTC prices would be flat and/or tending downward until about midday Friday... then thereafter, we would either get gradual upward movement or sharp upward movement in prices. The sharp upward movement in prices scenario would come in the event that the SR auction brought news of winning bids much above the then market rate. |
|
|
|
All the other potensial bidders will now think: Gee, that low! Well, we can go lower! So offensive, much logical. They will only think that if they do NOT want to win the coins. If they want to win the coins, then they will think the opposite - and that is: In order to win the bid, I am going to have to bid at least more than 85% of market price. No one who wants to win, will really expect to be able to win for less than 85% of market price. Additionally, once they are into registering and tying up $200K for at least two weeks, they likely have intentions to attempt to win at least one of the lots of coins. |
|
|
|
Don't know if anyones mentioned this or not, but maybe all the buying that would normally be taking place right now is on hold because they are waiting to see if they win their bid, if they don't they will go back to buying. So, if im right, that means after the bidding is done, we will see a massive spike because the big buyers will be back to buying and not trying to win that bid that costs millions of dollars.
If they do NOT win the bid, then it is probably pretty likely that the money that they had for bidding has been allocated for BTC purchasing. |
|
|
|
Anyone else notice how all the bitcoin high priests and cheerleaders have been conveniently absent for the past couple weeks? The exponential log charts have been tucked into suitcases and the purveyors of these bitcoin pipe dreams are heading onto the next big thing. Makes you wonder... all of us still holding... are we the bag holders afterall? Ask yourself that question, you've been one of the biggest bitcoin cheerleaders lately convinced the price was going to explode upwards. Funny how these types are the first to lose faith and do a complete turnaround. Better let go of that heavy bag of yours and let someone take it who can handle it and have more realistic expectations of bitcoin. You might have me confused with someone else, friend. I'm typically pessimistic or mildly enthusiastic at best, but my outlook changes on a weekly basis. I honestly can't remember all that I've written in the past, but I've never promised anyone riches and if you look back enough, there have been times that I claimed we're all late adopters and missed the train. I'm feeling that way again now. I don't think so, here are some of your own posts lately: I think it's pretty clear that we're going to remain flat or slightly downward for the next few weeks or months. There are way too many market players who -- for whatever reason -- are doing their best to keep the price low. It doesn't matter. Within a few short years, anyone holding 10 bitcoins or more will be able to retire and live out their lives on a tropical island if they so choose.
According to the logistic model, we'll be there by the end of 2015. Anyone who owns at least 5 coins now will be rich by 2016.
Even the most vocal haters are coming around and embracing bitcoin. Yup, this next rally is going to be epic.
But the strange thing is, you seem to lose your entire faith in the above whenever the price is going down a bit: has the exponential growth trend broken? Maybe it's seriously time to re-assess the future of bitcoin growth.
And now you seem to be losing faith again. Please make up your mind and grow some balls. +1... thanks for that Miz4r....  |
|
|
|
So guys, 27th June.. we learn that the coins sold well above market, we should see a price to $650+ within hours after confirmation? And, on the other side (well below market) we should see a drop to $545 or less within hours after confirmation.
But what about the case where we dont know the results? Down? Up? We all know this market never responds to nothing by doing nothing.
I'm sure that several of the various winners are going to want to inform people about the price that they paid. I doubt that they would be restricted from such publicity, after they have won. So the marshals forgot to mention if or how and when they will announce the result? Well that's depressing (for the bitcoin price). With the government there should be some additional transparency, and announcement, but it seems that "ought" versus "is" are two different stories. Hopefully, the parties themselves are NOT restricted from announcing what they did or if they won and at what price. |
|
|
|
You betcha. Peter Todd dumped at LEAST five figures. Dollars, that is.
On a side I wonder how much the core devs are invested personally, out of pure curiosity. Jeff Garzik publically stated he "only" has 348 BTC which is far less than some speculators here. I have met another vip core dev in person and I understood he is in the thousands BTC but below 10k. Gavin has (had last year) more than 20K BTCWhere did you get that from? I asked him long ago if he mined and made a bunch of Bitcoins early on and he said he didn't mine and didn't have many. It's probably NOT a good idea for publicly known figures in the bitcoin space to be too detailed about their own BTC holdings, unless there is some meaningful or serious questions about their integrity regarding their role in bitcoin... concerning manipulation or something like that. |
|
|
|
It is magical thinking on our part to believe that anyone will pay above market prices for bitcoins, especially in this tepid market.
If you were ever going to pay above market for btc, now would be the time to do it. Some time 5-10 days from now, BTC will put in its lowest daily bottom, and prices will always be higher thereafter. (Says the monkey, but I will take responsibility this time, because I agree -- and yes, perhaps it is magical thinking. He is, after all, a magic monkey.) lol what is this magic monkey that I keep hearing of? I must have missed something many pages ago. Is this some rhesus monkey that you've imprisoned and hooked to electrodes to exploit his clairvoyant talents? Dude. Lets bet. Any amount up to 100 BTC that they go above market price. Your logic is so irrational, I feel you should be punished for spreading stupidity on these boards. Money where mouth is please. I tend to agree with you WindJC, yet are you saying that all ten lots are going to go above market rate. I would think that everyone here realizes that it is likely that all ten lots are NOT going to go to one bidder for the same price... but I tend to believe that all of them are going to go above market rate, yet I would NOT be surprised if one or two lots did NOT. Someone willing to buy all 30k should be prepared to pay a higher premium, so I think it's highly possible that all coins will be sold to a single entity, all above the market price. Pretty improbably scenario in my opinion (since there are 10 lots); however, there is nothing wrong with having differing opinions regarding predicting probable outcomes. |
|
|
|
some known early adopters are dumping, and many other adopters/investors/developers are slowly losing faith (one of them speaking), Bitcoin needs another bubble ASAP, bubbles are the only thing keeps Bitcoin ongoing.
Bitcoin days destroyed says differently. So please shut up. Hows litecoin doing, btw? He has definitely been in a FUD spreading mode recently, and since I had NOT really noticed, previously, I cannot comment on whether mmitech was always such a dufous. |
|
|
|
some known early adopters are dumping, and many other adopters/investors/developers are slowly losing faith (one of them speaking), Bitcoin needs another bubble ASAP, bubbles are the only thing keeps Bitcoin ongoing.
We have already explored the topic of mmitech's BTC investment to be able to understand that his BTC investment strategy, to the extent that one exists, is NOT reflective of anybody except for himself - b/c either his BTC investment strategy, to the extent that it could be called such, is eccentric or not really explanable in English - at least mmitech has NOT been able to accomplish any meaningful explanation that makes sense to anyone beyond his peculiar eccentricities... By the way, if you did NOT catch this, mmitech is supposedly religiously opposed to earning interest on his money (nothing against religions), except for some reason he believes it is o.k. and not against his religion to invest in btc, ltc and seemingly in other cryptos, if they were to strike his peculiar fancy. |
|
|
|
seriously puzzled by the selling pressure, oh well more for me.
Someone wants to short on Finex I think... more like, someone wants to cover their short at the best possible price, before it is too late. monkey says the next 3 hours look grim. I'm gonna have to put you on ignore. That monkey nonsense is annoying as hell. WOW>>... You lasted much longer than me, and my lil' doggie. I did NOT even mention my lil' doggie, and shroomy put me on ignore. My lil' doggie finds monkey to be quite amusing, but for some reason, she (my lil doggie) remains a little bit scared of monkey. |
|
|
|
We should probably start defining what we mean by "above market" or "below market".
Since the announcement of the auction, daily median has fluctuated between, what, 650 and 550? Something like that, I think.
So, new rule: if you say "they'll sell above/below market", you better specify the actual price, otherwise that prediction is sounding a bit fuzzy.
That market price cannot be pinpointed, exactly. The bidders will have a 12 hour window to bid, and their perception of market price will be at the time that they submit their bid. I would imagine that most are going to submit their bid in the final quartile of the 12 hour window.. so in that sense, market price will be what it is during those last three hours of the auction (stable or NOT)... my point is that there are too many variables to expect a poster here to both predict whether bidders will be bidding above or below market rate and to also determine what that market rate will be... and what the reference point for that market rate should be. |
|
|
|
It is magical thinking on our part to believe that anyone will pay above market prices for bitcoins, especially in this tepid market.
If you were ever going to pay above market for btc, now would be the time to do it. Some time 5-10 days from now, BTC will put in its lowest daily bottom, and prices will always be higher thereafter. (Says the monkey, but I will take responsibility this time, because I agree -- and yes, perhaps it is magical thinking. He is, after all, a magic monkey.) lol what is this magic monkey that I keep hearing of? I must have missed something many pages ago. Is this some rhesus monkey that you've imprisoned and hooked to electrodes to exploit his clairvoyant talents? Dude. Lets bet. Any amount up to 100 BTC that they go above market price. Your logic is so irrational, I feel you should be punished for spreading stupidity on these boards. Money where mouth is please. I tend to agree with you WindJC, yet are you saying that all ten lots are going to go above market rate. I would think that everyone here realizes that it is likely that all ten lots are NOT going to go to one bidder for the same price... but I tend to believe that all of them are going to go above market rate, yet I would NOT be surprised if one or two lots did NOT. |
|
|
|
Thanks for cutting my post into half, don't do that again. I guess you agree with point 2 and 3. [ ... ]
It is good etiquette to trim the posts you are replying to, leaving only the parts that are relevant to the reply. However I should have added "[ ... ]" to show that parts were omitted; my apologies for being lazy. , until you join the cult we hold you to a different standard, Jorge became a cultist some time ago... I clearly remember that he wrote that he doubled (or tripled?) his BTC portfolio. Todays drop was clearly Jorge cashing out because he needed a little extra cash for the auction. Zero times zero two is still zero, as far as I know my math basics. EDIT: fixed above after I realized my mistake, by reading other posts...  |
|
|
|
How about you, Fonzie? What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets? What kinds of percentages do you have? How do you consider your BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?
Fonzie's assets? Let me guess... 1 slingshot, 3 Pokemon cards, 1 yoyo, 2 GI Joe dolls, a Betsy Wetsy action figure and an iPhone. Maybe his mommy also bought him a Schwinn. Yeah,... .he he he.. the reality of the situation. You did forget about the blow-up doll ("friend") OH>>>> EDIT.... That must have been your reference to "Betsy Wetsy."  |
|
|
|
That's quite commendable of you JayJuanGee to actually try and have a conversation with Trollzie, instead of just telling him to fuck off.
hehehehe... I know I was a bit torn about whether to respond.  |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
