Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cassius]

Ok, i have 2 simple questions.
It's clear that this small auction completely controls the market. The market is filled with fear. It's reasonable to assume we even already went down 30 dollars because of this (which is insane btw).
Apparently people expect a rally or a dump depending on the outcome.

1: What will cause the rally and what will cause the dump?
2: Why is this considered so extremely important at the moment?

I really must be missing something. Hopefully someone can fill me in.

When no one really wants to buy and no one really wants to sell, it doesn't take much to move the price.

I think this might be the ultimate example of a Keynesian beauty contest. Everything knows it shouldn't be a big deal. But everyone is expecting everyone else to blink first, so a lot of blinking happens.
For the literal-minded among you, replace 'blink' with 'sell' and this will make more sense.

[kireinaha]

For everyone here who mocked me and told me I "can't be trusted" because I'm too passionate about my price forecasts, well, here's some news that you might not like. I called the price (I picked $565 on the poll when it opened last week). At the time, there were only two others in that camp with me and many, many, many in the >650 camp.

So who are you going to listen to? The guy who will bullshit you and tell you that we're going to the moon after the auction, because millionaires -- for whatever inane reason -- are supposedly going to overpay for a depreciating asset, or the the guy who will tell you what's really going on. I'm right again and the permabull morons who flamed me... wrong. Oh well, what's new.

[romneymoney]

It feels good to make a prediction that works out.  Good enough that some (overconfident, young, ego driven) take it as a signal that they've got it all figured out and their next prediction will work out as well. 

[mmitech]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

[Adrian-x]

Guys, I'm not a professional quote maker (yet), but I must say it...

In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any phony god’s blessing. But because, I am enlightened by my intelligence.

So you spent that SR refund then. Looks like good value.

[Torque]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

“We’re the backbone of the entire Bitcoin industry,” says Kodrič, 25, who’s wearing a black t-shirt with “Zero Excuses” in fluorescent green capital letters. “The wallet services, ATM machines, mining companies all rely on us. The price of Bitcoin is the de facto price on Bitstamp. We’re the to-go exchange.”

Oh, the hubris!  Can't wait for solid U.S.-based exchanges to knock 'em down a notch or two.

Good that they're visible though, makes it easier to find them.   

[bitcoinsrus]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

“We’re the backbone of the entire Bitcoin industry,” says Kodrič, 25, who’s wearing a black t-shirt with “Zero Excuses” in fluorescent green capital letters. “The wallet services, ATM machines, mining companies all rely on us. The price of Bitcoin is the de facto price on Bitstamp. We’re the to-go exchange.”

Oh, the hubris!  Can't wait for solid U.S.-based exchanges to knock 'em down a notch or two.

Good that they're visible though, makes it easier to find them.  

Lol I just read that to (backbone)

[Richy_T]

But how can a bank get income and pay for salaries and and all other costs ? well it is simple an Islamic bank isn't by the western definition a bank, it is a commercial institution, it is not a bank per se, you never get cash as a loan... you need a car? they buy you the car and rent it to you for a tiny profit until you become the owner, you need to buy a house ? they negotiate to buy it for you with the owner and you can live in it and pay "rent" for a time you agreed upon until you pay the whole price and you become the owner, you cant sell it untill you pay, simply you are not the owner of anything until you pay it off.  

You typically don't "own" the house with a regular mortgage either. With a car, it depends on whether the loan is secured on the car or not. It's basically the same in all but name but it's human nature to work around pointless restrictions.

[N12]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

Interesting tidbit for many here:

"They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value"

Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now?

[Nicholas-Carraway]

I'm still seeing a bearish wedge.

[Richy_T]

So who are you going to listen to?

No one.

[Krabby]

For everyone here who mocked me and told me I "can't be trusted" because I'm too passionate about my price forecasts, well, here's some news that you might not like. I called the price (I picked $565 on the poll when it opened last week). At the time, there were only two others in that camp with me and many, many, many in the >650 camp.

So who are you going to listen to? The guy who will bullshit you and tell you that we're going to the moon after the auction, because millionaires -- for whatever inane reason -- are supposedly going to overpay for a depreciating asset, or the the guy who will tell you what's really going on. I'm right again and the permabull morons who flamed me... wrong. Oh well, what's new.

Myself.

[kireinaha]

It feels good to make a prediction that works out.  Good enough that some (overconfident, young, ego driven) take it as a signal that they've got it all figured out and their next prediction will work out as well. 

It feels good because all I ever hear around here is how we're either going to zero (the trolls) or "we're going to skyrocket as soon as deadline x,y,z passes". Both are always wrong, and yet when someone like me comes in and makes a sensible prediction of a short term contraction, he gets flamed because it's contrary with what people want to hear.

[JayJuanGee]

This thread is becoming unbearable

if people like shroomskit stopped bashing on every analyze or a prediction or a question and simply not take everything personally this thread would be cleaner, but well this is what happens when the price is not moving.

as I said before, Bitcoin needs bubbles for its survival, if that doesn't happen soon, the community will simply kill it.

What do you mean by: "the community will simply kill it"?

He probably means that the community is so addicted to bubbles that they need another one soon or they start suffering from bubble withdrawal symptoms and die as a result. You can just look at mmitech and already see the early symptoms.

+1  hehehehe... mmitech.. if you can figure any of that out   

[Cassius]

But how can a bank get income and pay for salaries and and all other costs ? well it is simple an Islamic bank isn't by the western definition a bank, it is a commercial institution, it is not a bank per se, you never get cash as a loan... you need a car? they buy you the car and rent it to you for a tiny profit until you become the owner, you need to buy a house ? they negotiate to buy it for you with the owner and you can live in it and pay "rent" for a time you agreed upon until you pay the whole price and you become the owner, you cant sell it untill you pay, simply you are not the owner of anything until you pay it off.  

You typically don't "own" the house with a regular mortgage either. With a car, it depends on whether the loan is secured on the car or not. It's basically the same in all but name but it's human nature to work around pointless restrictions.

Done properly there's a big advantage. Since you're effectively hire-purchasing a house, you cannot ever be in negative equity. Naturally, most banks don't like the idea of shifting liability onto themselves, hence the interest-driven model prevails elsewhere.

[N12]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

Interesting tidbit for many here:

"They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value"

Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now?

It does line up with the fact that noone has been buying Bitcoins at SecondMarket for almost two months. See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

[Torque]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

Interesting tidbit for many here:

"They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value"

Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now?

Can someone on this subforum answer this one simple question, instead of completely ignoring it:

Q: In a closed door auction, where no one outside of it will know what the selling price was, how can Bitstamp, you, or anyone else know what the winning price was?

And don't just reply "The selling price will get leaked out" or some silly crap, as we know hearsay FUD is completely unreliable.

<quick, run away and avoid answering this question.  Again.>  

[Erdogan]

Some of us, rather than cursing the dark, are trying to light candles, with varying degrees of success.  It takes a pretty vigorous crap filter to glean anything useful here, but there is such as thing as exogenous input stimulating useful thought.  By voicing opinions, members stimulate each other to think about aspects of the situation which they might otherwise neglect.  If the stimulus is misleading, that is unfortunate, but a vigorous crapfilter should avoid most of that downside.  The worst part is the time-sink aspect.

You may not read this.  I know you don't like my monkey.  The monkey is a metaphorical monkey, used to voice signals derived by means I do not wish to disclose accurately or justify rigorously.  I find the signals useful, and it does not require any sort of faith in the monkey to observe its signals over time.  I know that some members have benefited from awareness of the monkey's moods, as have I, otherwise your complaint would have sufficed for me to silence the monkey here.  As a third-party reader I would accept the monkey as another source of stimulus for thought, no more and no less.  I regard the other members of this forum much as I regard the magic monkey.  They are a source of highly structured signal, which serves to stimulate thought.

Freedom requires possibilities.  Our possibilities are limited  by our awareness, oftentimes.  Exogenous stimuli often serve to draw attention to those possibilities, and thereby compound our freedom.

Often don't agree with what you write. With this, I do.

Me too. It is impossible to squelch trolls and bad information, the answer is to provide good information.

[N12]

I don't expect the price to be released anytime soon, if ever. It'll probably be irrelevant for the purposes of market sentiment, that's why it is so astonishing to me that people are seriously debating this, but I won't say no to joining the fun.

<quick, run away and avoid answering this question.  Again.>   

Again? Where did I avoid answering one of your questions? I'd like to do so now, sorry if I missed it.

[Swimpool]

I think after the auction we prepare for a lunar landing!