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2881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2020, 04:02:15 PM
25k is much too close for me to grab a LearJet and pop out right now....

Is it sad, or stupid, that I'm trying to rationalize buying a much larger strip of land for our ranch, and building a private runway, or helicopter landing pad, at the very least ?

..and a spaceport at $100K, right?

that said...if you work for a paycheck and your current work is not necessarily a dream job, when to retire?
options:
1. your btc is worth 10 year salary
2. your btc is worth 30 year salary
3. your btc is worth 100 year salary
4. (just for JJG) your btc is worth X year salary, but you consider btc price at a 200wk average, where X is 20-30 years.
2882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2020, 01:36:52 AM
I think we have to find a friendly name for mBTC.


milli vanilli /jk

millesimal (or "millesim" or simply "sim")

promille (or "pro")


2883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 10:51:42 PM


Excellent projection, sir!

Beforehand, I always thought that it is better when the peak is in Jan vs December of prior year, but in actuality, it does not matter much.
You have to pay regular taxes one year later, that is correct, but if the sell is large enough, you are better off paying an estimated tax, which would be due with only 3 mo difference (Jan 15 vs Apr 15). In fact, Jan 15 might be even better psychologically because you would not try to do something stupid and instead of more trading would just dedicate a chunk for these purposes.
2884  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 09:11:43 PM
Kinda cool/weird that 12/17/17 and 12/16/20  End up banner days in the history of BTC.  What if it goes over 30k tomorrow? Smiley  Sorry... just in dream mode.

december 16 is a v. powerful strange attractor in the bitcoin time series data, who knows why? 5 days before solstice,  9 days before christmas? I dont know but there it is.

Well it is my birthday, so that makes a lot of sense. You're welcome everyone!

Happy Birthday, doc.

On a side note: what happens to poor kinds whose bd is on Dec 25...tough competition  Grin ?
2885  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 03:29:02 PM
...

Good info, but not really relevant as I am sure all my regular payment information is already widely available within the financial system.
I use credit cards, so if someone wants to see what I spend on, they already can.
Regarding my crypto dealings all this does is to inform someone that i sent a few deposits to coinbase and gemini. Not very important.
In other words, everything that you described is already there via gazillion of info aggregators that are plugged in into the financial system.
But, thanks for reminding me one more time how much under the microscope we all are.
Ever wonder , how come after mentioning "vacuum cleaner" in your text or on a Facebook page, suddenly you are bombarded with vacuum cleaners everywhere, even on btctalk?
Do I like it? Not in the slightest, but learned to mostly ignore it.

Well it's one thing for financials institutions to have your transaction history and it's another when marketers do. Plus i'm not sure if it's a one time thing or they continue pulling/monitoring your transactions indefinitely? Then when those databases leak online and we can see all of your transactions history for past X years you can't bitch at anyone because you gave away your creds yourself.
You buy one green dildo online and then the forum is littered with green dildos?

Privacy takes effort, you either go with the flow with the path of least resistance, or you use tor, private/incognito modes and drop facebook etc...

you are right, of course.
But now, as you reminded me of that wire option, it is likely that I went that way anyway, it's just I don't fully recall.
Good vibes, dude.
2886  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 06:37:42 AM
to whom it may concern

yes yall have finally shamed me into finishing setting up the gemini account i started years ago...

What KYC do they want? Is it passport, bank statement and utility bill scans?

started a few years ago (in 2017) so dont remember much. (then) they wanted password access to my the back account i wanted to link to (!!WTF!!) which stopped me dead in me tracks till i could give them an account i wound up making specifically for them and let them have that.


FECKING PASSWORD ACCESS TO YOUR BANK ACCOUNT?

Is that even legal? I bet most banks have a clause in their terms and conditions forbidding disclosure of your password to anyone.

I also remember something like this (also in 2017 or so), which was unusual. I wrote to them asking, basically, wtf?
The answer was that you enter the password on a special bank site, not on the Gemini site (all banks are integrated there) and the session is not recorded (right!!).
It is probably similar to how you can prove that the btc account is yours by signing a message.
Basically, they see that you were able to login, but they don't see the password as you login into your bank, essentially (or so they claim).
I think all they get from the session is the record that you were able to login into the account you claim to be the owner of.
The explanation was that this gives them confidence that the bank account is actually yours and you can control it.
I did it, but then had to wait at least 3 weeks for approval.
The only reason I initiated it in the first place was because at that time they had no limits (at least no discernible limits) on withdrawals and you can trade immediately after you initiate the deposit, which Coinbase did not have at the time.

Well you think wrong, care to try again? Don't think/trust, verify.

Quote
Information we collect from your financial accounts. The information we receive from the financial product and service providers that maintain your financial accounts varies depending on the specific Plaid services developers use to power their applications, as well as the information made available by those providers. But, in general, we collect the following types of identifiers, commercial information, and other personal information from your financial product and service providers:

    Account information, including financial institution name, account name, account type, account ownership, branch number, IBAN, BIC, and account and routing number;

    Information about an account balance, including current and available balance;

    Information about credit accounts, including due dates, balances owed, payment amounts and dates, transaction history, credit limit, repayment status, and interest rate;

    Information about loan accounts, including due dates, repayment status, balances, payment amounts and dates, interest rate, guarantor, loan type, payment plan, and terms;

    Information about investment accounts, including transaction information, type of asset, identifying details about the asset, quantity, price, fees, and cost basis;

   <culled down the info in the post for space reasons>

Though bitcoiners are not supposed to be so naïve, now you have to burn that account, then step away from your computer, pour gasoline all over it and set it on fire too!

Good info, but not really relevant as I am sure all my regular payment information is already widely available within the financial system.
I use credit cards, so if someone wants to see what I spend on, they already can.
Regarding my crypto dealings all this does is to inform someone that i sent a few deposits to coinbase and gemini. Not very important.
In other words, everything that you described is already there via gazillion of info aggregators that are plugged in into the financial system.
But, thanks for reminding me one more time how much under the microscope we all are.
Ever wonder , how come after mentioning "vacuum cleaner" in your text or on a Facebook page, suddenly you are bombarded with vacuum cleaners everywhere, even on btctalk?
Do I like it? Not in the slightest, but learned to mostly ignore it.
2887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2020, 02:18:09 AM
to whom it may concern

yes yall have finally shamed me into finishing setting up the gemini account i started years ago...

What KYC do they want? Is it passport, bank statement and utility bill scans?

started a few years ago (in 2017) so dont remember much. (then) they wanted password access to my the back account i wanted to link to (!!WTF!!) which stopped me dead in me tracks till i could give them an account i wound up making specifically for them and let them have that.


FECKING PASSWORD ACCESS TO YOUR BANK ACCOUNT?

Is that even legal? I bet most banks have a clause in their terms and conditions forbidding disclosure of your password to anyone.

I also remember something like this (also in 2017 or so), which was unusual. I wrote to them asking, basically, wtf?
The answer was that you enter the password on a special bank site, not on the Gemini site (all banks are integrated there) and the session is not recorded (right!!).
It is probably similar to how you can prove that the btc account is yours by signing a message.
Basically, they see that you were able to login, but they don't see the password as you login into your bank, essentially (or so they claim).
I think all they get from the session is the record that you were able to login into the account you claim to be the owner of.
The explanation was that this gives them confidence that the bank account is actually yours and you can control it.
I did it, but then had to wait at least 3 weeks for approval.
The only reason I initiated it in the first place was because at that time they had no limits (at least no discernible limits) on withdrawals and you can trade immediately after you initiate the deposit, which Coinbase did not have at the time.
2888  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2020, 11:38:24 PM
Do you know who earns 31 Bitcoins per day?

Grayscale.



Fucking unbelievable.

They now own more than 3% of the total bitcoin supply.

Fucking unbelievable.

They sell their Bitcoin at 24,000 USD each.

Fucking unbelievable.

They sometimes had above 100% premium in 2017 (peaked at the equivalent of 40K/btc).
IMHo, in a bull market the only thing that could kill their premium is a broadly available ETF.
2889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2020, 01:54:46 AM

haha...

that was an old octopus, it already lost it's beak

some read for Bob (and others, #nohomo  Grin):
"The Forever War"
https://www.amazon.com/Forever-War-Joe-Haldeman/dp/0312536631

(sci-fi, but brilliant, war in space, effects of coming back when much relative time has passed)
2890  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2020, 11:31:16 PM
Larry Ellison...a "king" of Lanai..
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracle-larry-ellison-says-moved-205441890.html

The only thing missing is the dominant use of bitcoin on that island.
he owns 98% of the island, hotels and even island's newspaper and employs almost all of the 3000 people there.
If not a king, then, perhaps, a feudal "lord".
2891  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2020, 10:20:45 PM
Calamari with special sauce, anyone ?

Thinking about the $100k party here.

Too much ?



Lol
usually you eat calamari, but at the 100K party calamari eats YOU. #nohomo
2892  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2020, 03:39:33 AM
Tejas is NOT Midwest, are you fucking kidding me? It is a South or Gulf state.
You probably never been there/here.
It is a historical oddity that there is only one country in all this space here (US), though.
In a split up situation, Texas would do better than many coastal states, sans California and possibly WA or NY.
Outside the cities yeah it's pretty similar in terms of people/attitude. Yes, Texas does have its own power grid and yes they do have some diversification and yes they may survive a bit better. But in a splitup they would wind up subsidizing the crap that is known as the rest of the midwest.

(And yes, I've been down there many times. Riverwalk is nice, the roads are empty as fuck, Dallas is a bit too big, and Austin is just weird)



Ok...I was not born here and most likely would not be here if/when retire...thinking more along CO, WA, OR or a time split between FL and WA/OR..
or even Mediterranean (Spain or Portugal)-will have to learn the language, though.

Portugal speaks portuguese and if my memory is correct it borders the Atlantic ocean not the mediterranean.

My wife has a huge extended family we could settle in Canada,Italy,Australia and hang out with a ton of here relatives. It would be a change of pace for sure from the states.

technically, yes, but it is considered Mediterranean
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mediterranean_countries

Yea re other countries...f-g tired of violence, threats of violence and unruly behavior (without even picking a side).
No relatives, though, would have to pay up for citizenship or residence...there are some options.
Still, rather not, unless...
2893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2020, 11:55:44 PM
Tejas is NOT Midwest, are you fucking kidding me? It is a South or Gulf state.
You probably never been there/here.
It is a historical oddity that there is only one country in all this space here (US), though.
In a split up situation, Texas would do better than many coastal states, sans California and possibly WA or NY.
Outside the cities yeah it's pretty similar in terms of people/attitude. Yes, Texas does have its own power grid and yes they do have some diversification and yes they may survive a bit better. But in a splitup they would wind up subsidizing the crap that is known as the rest of the midwest.

(And yes, I've been down there many times. Riverwalk is nice, the roads are empty as fuck, Dallas is a bit too big, and Austin is just weird)



Ok...I was not born here and most likely would not be here if/when retire...thinking more along CO, WA, OR or a time split between FL and WA/OR..
or even Mediterranean (Spain or Portugal)-will have to learn the language, though.
2894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2020, 11:14:40 PM


Well, if they want to re-fight the Alamo more power to them..... Personally I'd be ok with the Midwest seceding, as long as we can build a nice big beautiful wall around them and let them figure out how to support themselves.

As the Canadians would say about Quebec: Good bye et bonne chance.

Tejas is NOT Midwest, are you fucking kidding me? It is a South or Gulf state.
You probably never been there/here.
It is a historical oddity that there is only one country in all this space here (US), though.
In a split up situation, Texas would do better than many coastal states, sans California and possibly WA or NY.

Have any of you guys used Blockfi to get paid interest on some of your hodl stash?  Very intrigued by this and wondering what the downsides are besides the obvious "not your keys" risk.
I looked into blockfi.  I think Celsius.network is a better outfit, I've been earning some decent retirement income on a percentage of my btc stash as I await the next mooning, for about 6 months now.

Also getting a nice dividend every week of over 10% on my usdc with celsius.network.  Very stable and predictable.  Can't get that kind of interest rate many other places.

That's all peachy, but where exactly these "insane" rates that are being paid are coming from?
IMHO, some of these companies are ponzi and/or re-hypothecate their holdings.
How to calculate the probability of their default?
I don't know, hence I don't participate.
If i had a large position in USDC, then maybe I would as it seems the most secure as far as regulation is concerned.

2895  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2020, 08:03:35 PM

Maybe those pesky texans are actually responding to this...like a first rat out of the house that is about to be flooded.

Have any of you guys used Blockfi to get paid interest on some of your hodl stash?  Very intrigued by this and wondering what the downsides are besides the obvious "not your keys" risk.

It would work until it maybe doesn't, see one of these biting the dust.
2896  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2020, 02:27:19 AM
Dear bitcoin, can you go up really fast now, lol?
I have got things to buy, places to go (just found a dream apartment, too much btc to pay rn).
Respectfully yours, ....

#can bitcoin be a secret Santa and do us a solid in the next 6-12 mo? My mirror is cloudy.
2897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2020, 10:13:09 PM
EDIT2: Also, someone also questioned whether I'm black and libertarian, while having such a confusing stance on being comfortable paying the requisite long-term capital gains tax.

I can understand the confusion, but, while being one who believes in Liberatian ideologies about The United States, I'm also pragmatic to understand that we live in a system, and I need to abide by the rules.

Capital gains taxes are only requisite if you sell, Bob.  Grin

Taking debt-free fully-collateralized loans, gifting to charity, setting up inheritance trusts, investing gains in opportunity zones, selling less than very generous NIIT cutoffs, moving to Puerto Rico, etc. etc. are all possibilities in the exact same rulebook, but result in more money going to family and causes we may actually identify with versus willy-nilly donating it to our government's system of black hole spending.

None of this should be counter to Libertarian thinking, am I wrong?

I understand that the sheer mental load of tax planning may be, well, taxing... But the system also provides an army of professionals to help with that, in the way of accountants, lawyers, and financial advisors. And they cost a helluva lot less than 23.8%. Some of them may even be friends and family. Libertarian even.

With qualified help and fore-thought, you, too, could have your cake and eat it. And maybe even sleep.

Nom nom.  Zzzz.

PS. Cheers to being a fellow POC raised with values by loving parents and working hard in life to overcome systemic racism. Although I happen to believe luck and appearance play more of a role than hard work in being "successful".

yeah, 20% LTV (relatively safe) is "just" 4.59%, but opportunity zones are a bit beyond my comfort level, but maybe I should just research it more, there is one within 5 min drive.
2898  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2020, 08:58:03 PM
Why was it a nightmare? How long did it eventually take?

Took a week or so to get ironed out, but then I discovered that they had ludicrously low annual cashout limits, so stopped using them entirely, in favor of Gemini.

They probably changed it afterwards, it is now much higher for pro level (daily $10mil), with a strange exception for Texas (TX is only up to 200K daily or something like that).
I have no idea why, maybe their bank has a quirk.
I also agree with a notion that all these limits are silly as it is YOUR money.
2899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2020, 01:26:40 AM
... know that I hold more BTC in reserve than I could reasonably spend in my lifetime.

You could simplify it a bit by setting a fixed (in fiat) amount of extra money to spend, or not spend. If you really want to unreasonably spend everything in your lifetime, you will need either an estimate of how much time you have left or fudge it a bit more, then divide your corns by that number of years, and you have a maximum number or ceiling to liquidate.

A nice number to assume would be 30. Since , as you know, plenty of sources say 25x of your annual expenses and in theory you should be able to live on 4% of that for the rest of your life.

So, if you have say, 300 corns, then divide that by 30, that means you can probably spend 10 corns every year, and you'll be unreasonably spending everything until it runs out. It will take 30 years to deplete, and as the price fluctuates, goes up, or goes down, probably going up for the next 30 years, you'll end up with more fiat than you know what to do with.

Imagine being "forced" to spend 1 corn a month for the next 30 years.

If you're still alive in 30 years, you'll either run out of corn but have a lot of fiat, OR you didn't spend all your corn and can keep drawing on it.

If you're not already a billionaire, do not get a private jet. You will need more than the price of the plane to pay for it, maintenance, expenses, a full tank of fuel everytime you fly, salary for your pilot, all sorts of paperwork. I think flying first class or even business class, when you do need to travel, is quite okay with a lot of people already.

Funny, you are describing a plan that I concocted a few years back...dividing by 30, etc.
However, I deviated...don't want to cash out and spend yet, lol

Plenty of financial independence blogs and websites have been posting along these lines. 25x to 30x. I picked 30 because it's a "safer" number, and it's not too far away from 25.

Any higher and it implies you moved the oft quoted 4% number down lower than 3%, which is safe, but too conservative and probably wasting money. Unless you have more than you can reasonably spend, such as anyone winning some mega millions super powerball for several hundred million. Then you can play it safe and just leave it in any regular deposit account, but everyone is going to call you stupid. (you have 100 million when your annual expenses are below $40k USD? who cares what they say, you are set for life even if you spend a million a year.)

I did not mean that I had an original idea, just that I had a similar conclusion to what you proposed.
That said, I noticed that my investment prowess is going down, I keep leaving gobs of money on the table and sell too fast, but heck, if i sell with profit, I cannot lose money, right,  Cheesy ?
At some point I just want to have a vast % of my fiat in short term bonds for actual usage and not accumulation, but every time I sell stonks for cash, it starts to "burn my hands" a la Bawb.
Got a partial re-investment plan for tomorrow. We'll see how it goes. I would not be too surprised to wake up one day with Dow down a couple of thou points.
Bitcoin, I leave alone, and speculate in GBTC instead.
2900  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2020, 10:49:28 PM
For Bawb and others...after cashing out btc  Cheesy :

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-forbes-zillowlike-platform-for-properties-over-2-million-debuts-200052458.html
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