Dude, two posts above it was pretty obvious you needed help understanding basics like linear regression and double exponentiation. I hope you don't mind if I don't take your opinion on TA all that serious, right?

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EDIT: okay, let me be more clear:

re: double exponentiation. there is not "official" explanation, just like there is not "official" explanation of simple log linear price models. they tend to work as an approximation, although I would alway point out that they're too imprecise to trade on. If you want the actual source of the graph, I already gave you a name, user Ducky1.

re: bitcoinwondertrader.de's graph (or whatever his name was). My attempt to capture the motivation of that log line wasn't meant sarcastic, or anthing. that's roughly the idea behind it: price never dropped below, so until now, this marks the lower bound of the all time trend. what you quote after that doesn't contradict my summary at all -- I never claimed proponents of the log trend line say that price could never fall below this line, just that, so far, it never *has* fallen below it.

SPACE LIZARD JEWS are controlling the FED via mind control satellite rays that the ILLUMINATI installed eons ago in your ancestors' HEADS!!!

*nervous eye twitch*

I rarely feel as bearish about the future of Bitcoin as when I realize how many batshit crazy rightwingers are attracted to it :/

Why, the hot young blonde one of course.

Ooh la la :D


(seriously though, I feel kind of bad for his long term girlfriend)


(ha! take that Americans! Our leaders aren't married, they have *girlfriends* and *mistresses*, and we still elect them!)

(it also helps that they aren't climate science deniers :D)

This is not a staple TA technique, as far as I know. Then again, what you seem to consider acceptable (the simple "log line") is also just a mathematical tool that is used across a wide range of fields (biology, CS), not just in TA.

What distinguishes the various "all time price graphs" are the starting assumptions about the underlying BTC price function. The graph you posted in here (that I criticized) is a straight line on a log chart with its slope and y intercept motivated by the lower candle wicks. The TA motivation approximately goes "the all time trend never went below those points, so this line marks the lowest boundary of the all time trend". Agreed?

Next, the "simple" log-linear model is a line of best fit of BTC price mapped to a log chart. Basically, it is the "best" (i.e. least erroneous) line you can draw through all BTC price points *if* you assume price is generated a) by exactly one, immutable b) exponential function (like, for example, the function "price goes up 5% each week").

By the way, assumptions a) and b) also hold for the "hand drawn" line you posted, just that it's not a line of best fit, but a line that connects the lower extrema of the candles.

The log-log-linear model, the green line in the graph above (which was made by user Ducky1 by the way, IIRC), does the same thing, find a line of best fit. Assumption a) above is the same, but assumption b) is different now: instead of assuming that a simple exponential function generated our price data, we are now looking for, i.e. we're approximating, a double exponential function.

Hard to believe price could rise that fast? I know I am skeptical about it. Then again, if you accept the possibility of an exponential price increase, I see little reasons in principle to outright reject double exponential growth.

Or, as I like to call it, the "Don't buy at all with ~80% probability" rule :D

Fantastic. Now you're spamming this thread as well with your log trendline. God, I can't believe I'd say this, considering I only joined the forum in April, but... you clueless newbies sure are annoying, re-posting the same, old uninformative stuff over and over again.

Two things:

a) the two cases mentioned above aren't the first >15k USD deposits. I can say that much with certainty. And not all of them triggered additional check ups. Again, I'm wondering if the common factor is that both of them weren't SEPA that triggered extra measures.

b) don't want to white knight Bitstamp, since I'm also not always 100% happy with how they run their business (my main gripe is their lack of public announcements when things go wrong, like DDOS -- though I have to say I'm glad to see hazek made an appearance in this thread this time ), but I also don't really support coming here accusing them, if things go wrong, immediately of "fraud" or being "run by teenagers".

Getting a bit cheeky, huh? :D

I agree that ~800 (bitstamp) is a focal price point. But I also see us in a similar spot as 6 days ago. When we finally broke upwards on Jan 10, it was about as weak as it could get. Now we're back at the 800 level, and to me at least it looks slightly more likely that it's going to resolve downwards this time. That's not a firm conviction though, just based on two trends I keep an eye on that we're touching now and didn't touch 6 days ago, and based on the total exhaustion of volume.

Naaah, just kidding. Crash incoming

How about:

Consolidation incoming!

Makes sense, to me at least.

So you went all USD at the (double) top, right?

Let me be clear: a hypothetical downtrend that would destroy 1 year's worth of growth, reduces price by a factor of >10, will not lead investors to feel like they're in a bull market. Your point is made on a time scale that will simply be forgotten at that moment. In essence, according to your logic, any price above 0.10 USD could be redefined as bullish since it is above the price that BTC started trading at. Looking at such long time frames, with extremely large movements in between, as a singular bull market just because you found 2 or 3 sloppy points of contact on a log chart spanning several years is just laughable. That's all I have to say on this topic.

You're really milking it for all that it's worth, huh

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Sure. Isn't that how all financial decisions work though, based on your individual preferences?

For me it would probably be: in case of total loss, a noticeable decrease of my overall living standard in non essential areas, i.e. if I can't afford a vacation as a result of total loss: that's okay. If I need to eat sub-standard food as a result of total loss: I invested too much.

Ahh, the great dilemma of the BTC investor: selling opens yourself up to the risk of having to buy back at a (possibly substantial) loss later on, or worse, leaving the game too early at an overall loss or at best, minor profit. Never selling on the other hand carries the real risk of losing it all, or nearly so (cf 2011). The best solution for the majority of investors is probably a) not having more of your money in BTC than you can afford to lose, and then, indeed, b) hodl... I'm just afraid too many in here fail point a).

(doesn't apply to you though, I suspect. even if price would drop by factor 10, you'd still have quite a bit.)

I'll leave it to the other posters to properly ridicule you for your amusing attempt to suck all meaning out of the word "bull market". Trust me, if we go back to 90, you'll be one of the select few to claim we're still in a bull market.

Great job leaving out my EDIT (that I added 5 minutes later, so I'm sure you saw it when you posted).

The problem is you came here and posted, and when someone responded to your post with something less than total support, you mentioned "white knighting" and "trading with 100 USD". I'm sure you can see how that doesn't exactly make a great first impression.

Anyway, I trade in a comparable range, and never had problem depositing and withdrawing. However, I can use SEPA transfers, so maybe that makes everything easier... don't know.

Good luck with your case. And, as always, it'd be nice to get some official responses in here from Bitstamp.

I would agree, though I suspect the EW crowd doesn't. But "up to 6 months" is still quite possibly governed by TA rather than fundamentals, in my opinion, so I don't see the contradiction honestly.

Hm, let's see... newbie account, coming here asking for support with a possibly true but kind of hard to believe story to begin with, then insulting those who dare to ask critical questions. But wait. I guess that's not the kind of language you understand. I'll translate: Go fuck yourself :)

EDIT: if you can accept the fact that a number of people in here trade within a similar USD range (or larger), and you don't accuse others of being white knights, then you might actually get some support here, as far as that's possible on a forum. Lately, I didn't see anyone from Bitstamp responding in here unfortunately.