Analysis

[N12]

If you open your eyes, you will see the truth: Price affects news affects price.

Price affects price.

[1713595903]

1713595903

[segeln]

The only danger for the BTC-World is a regulation by governments or even a shutdown.

Wrong, the only danger for the BTC is complete destruction of all the internet hardware, aka routers, wires, cables, etc - that would seriously undermine it's ability to function. Governments can't do anything now.

oh,they can do a hell of a lot
Don`t underestimate the power of governments.
one-Word: NSA

[Satyre_Noir]

The only danger for the BTC-World is a regulation by governments or even a shutdown.

Wrong, the only danger for the BTC is complete destruction of all the internet hardware, aka routers, wires, cables, etc - that would seriously undermine it's ability to function. Governments can't do anything now.

True, bitcoin can not be destroyed. But its price can be crushed by regulations or ban.

+1

[bambou]

If you open your eyes, you will see the truth: Price affects news affects price.

Price affects price.

lol thx Morpheus. 

[lebing]

I have to say that recently my opinion of TA as of late is getting much higher. There has been a huge amount of really good news coming out and the price has barely budged... its even gone down. Lucif said awhile back that TA essentially "unlocks" events to occur and when I first heard it I thought it was garbage... now I'm actually agreeing with him. Much to ponder indeed!

[N12]

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

You mean this? I've seen all this before, that's why I keep trying to tell you guys; I have been a victim of this in the past too. Latter 2011 and 2012 were likely the most productive times of Bitcoin, yet it was the worst of times for their value.

Here is another way to look at this: Adoption and price aren't inextricably linked. Look at the price of the NASDAQ (still off its highs from 14 years ago) and the adoption of the internet.

[oda.krell]

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

You mean this? I've seen all this before, that's why I keep trying to tell you guys; I have been a victim of this in the past too. Latter 2011 and 2012 were likely the most productive times of Bitcoin, yet it was the worst of times for their value.

Here is another way to look at this: Adoption and price aren't inextricably linked. Look at the price of the NASDAQ (still off its highs from 14 years ago) and the adoption of the internet.

And you were right back then (and are still right about it) that the possibility that BTC price goes into a year-long stagnation, or even decline, exists. Which is essentially what lucif alluded to as well. And earlier in this thread (IIRC) I agreed with you on that possibility having a non-zero chance, and that the bulls who react with serious aggressiveness to the mere mentioning of this possibility are in for some serious pain if that event ever unfolds.

If that event unfolds.

To me it's far from certain that this will be happening. Luc has his EW theory based arguments (and I find them pretty unconvincing on such a long time scale). What's your evidence? That we're still consolidating, possibly on an overall downward slope (although that part would already be contentious.), less than 2 months after the post-ATH-double top?

Here's what the long decline of 2011, and the long time between ATHs looked like on a log scale, plus the 30d EMA for getting a smoother view of how it unfolded:




And here's what our current post-ATH situation looks like, same time scale:





I don't know about what you see in that chart, but unless you're willing to draw grand conclusions about the future based on EW waves that span years, I see little evidence that we're on a trajectory to such a long decline.

I simply don't see enough of anything to make such a long shot.

I'm not ruling it out either, but I'm as sceptical about those who claim we'll see such a long bear market as I am about those who reject the possibility of that same bear market purely because it doesn't fit their greedy delusion of where BTC price should go.

[bambou]

Here is another way to look at this: Adoption and price aren't inextricably linked. Look at the price of the NASDAQ (still off its highs from 14 years ago) and the adoption of the internet.

Very true.

hum but isnt bitcoin different from some index? i mean, people does not adopt NASDAQ whereas they do adopt (or not) Bitcoin directly, don't they?

[N12]

You will never hear me saying in seriousness that something is certain. It is important to account for horrible scenarios, even if the probability may be low. IF we had a real bear market, so many would be losing nearly all of their wealth (and you just know that many here have almost all their wealth in BTC at all times) clinging on to their Bitcoins because they have ZERO risk management in place in case they are wrong. They would be crippled and in denial, and worse, they might even sell near the bottom as their s-curve and log chart delusions at last shatter … only to see Bitcoin rally to new alltime highs in the next years.

I'm actually of the opinion that it doesn't look much like 2011 anymore thanks to this bounce off 455, and I will be placing bets accordingly. Yet I will never lose sight of this very real possibility, and thus, I will be limiting my risk.

PS: If we have a bear market, the time to invest will be when everyone is too ashamed to proclaim "HODL!" and people start making fun of me for being bullish.

[oda.krell]

You will never hear me saying in seriousness that something is certain. It is important to account for horrible scenarios, even if the probability may be low. IF we had a real bear market, so many would be losing nearly all of their wealth (and you just know that many here have almost all their wealth in BTC at all times) clinging on to their Bitcoins because they have ZERO risk management in place in case they are wrong. They would be crippled and in denial, and worse, they might even sell near the bottom as their s-curve and log chart delusions at last shatter … only to see Bitcoin rally to new alltime highs in the next years.

I'm actually of the opinion that it doesn't look much like 2011 anymore thanks to this bounce off 455, and I will be placing bets accordingly. Yet I will never lose sight of this very real possibility, and thus, I will be limiting my risk.

Cliche as it sounds:

+1

Phrased like that I completely agree.

I nominate you for the prestigious "most valuable bear of the year" award

[cAPSLOCK]

I nominate you for the prestigious "most valuable bear of the year" award

Second.

[N12]

Here is my optimistic vision. Lower triangle angle isn't important as long as it's a little above the former low, and roughly symmetrical at least. Alternatively, a double bottom (can be a little bit lower too then).

The charting matter has been a bit complicated because of the divergences between the Chinese and other markets, particularly MtGox. Based on Huobi's data, they have had a high of 1324 and a low of 350 already, whereas MtGox has 1242 and 455. That is a difference of 63% vs. 72% off the top. Bitstamp had a similarly sized high as MtGox with 1163 as the top, and a bottom at 382. 67%, so an intermediate between the two.

Because of this, I would look at 2/3 exchanges' charts to confirm the validity of such a triangle, particularly in case one exchanges diverges at first by making a new bottom but follows up with a large candle wick.

What's worrying me longer term is the hidden negative divergence in the weekly MACD (that is in addition to a shorter term one in the daily MACD).

[zby]

A propos 'unlocking events': http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/10/the-depressing-psychological-theory-that-explains-washington/

Once we have our belief we filter out the information that contradicts it.

[cAPSLOCK]

I simply don't see enough of anything to make such a long shot.

I know I risk of being burned as a witch saying it here...  but is it not reasonable to think that when you are talking about longer periods at this point in the discovery of a new commodity/currency/phenomenon fundamentals will begin to damp technical forecasts?

[oda.krell]

I simply don't see enough of anything to make such a long shot.

I know I risk of being burned as a witch saying it here...  but is it not reasonable to think that when you are talking about longer periods at this point in the discovery of a new commodity/currency/phenomenon fundamentals will begin to damp technical forecasts?

I would agree, though I suspect the EW crowd doesn't. But "up to 6 months" is still quite possibly governed by TA rather than fundamentals, in my opinion, so I don't see the contradiction honestly.

[segeln]

PS: If we have a bear market,

Well, actually we are since April 2011 in a very stable bullish-market
Up and downs are no Problems and quite normal as long as the downs don`t hurt the ascending line, going beneath that line.
I am a little bored of those complaints about crashes, bubbles, dooming etc.



I Keep hodling !!!!

[segeln]

According to your chart what is the min/max price we can have as of today and still be in the trendline?

the price could drop to about 90 $ (!!!!!!)Gox and we are still in the bull-market.
Upwards there is no Limit in bull-markets
the resistance of the upper line is not  big and in bull markets of no importance

[oda.krell]

According to your chart what is the min/max price we can have as of today and still be in the trendline?

the price could drop to about 90 $ (!!!!!!)Gox and we are still in the bull-market.
Upwards there is no Limit in bull-markets
the resistance of the upper line is not  big and in bull markets of no importance

I'll leave it to the other posters to properly ridicule you for your amusing attempt to suck all meaning out of the word "bull market". Trust me, if we go back to 90, you'll be one of the select few to claim we're still in a bull market.

[segeln]

According to your chart what is the min/max price we can have as of today and still be in the trendline?

the price could drop to about 90 $ (!!!!!!)Gox and we are still in the bull-market.
Upwards there is no Limit in bull-markets
the resistance of the upper line is not  big and in bull markets of no importance

I'll leave it to the other posters to properly ridicule you for your amusing attempt to suck all meaning out of the word "bull market". Trust me, if we go back to 90, you'll be one of the select few to claim we're still in a bull market.

sorry,but your knowlegde in TA is very poor.
Analysis by the  professionals from Godmodetrader.de:(Date of publishing the Chart)

A Rally acceleration is going on which could push up the Price up to the potential trendchannel top at about 2.400 to 2.600 Dollar.
From there could start a correction which might be finished in the bullish Version in a few month at a high Level.
After that another Rally acceleration is possible.
Prices up to 15.000 or 100.00 Dollar seem to be utopic at this time but from the chart-analytic Point of view they are possible without any Problems

What story tells the Chart to you ?

[segeln]

Trust me, if we go back to 90, you'll be one of the select few to claim we're still in a bull market.

This depends only on the reason for this huge drop. Note that events like SR bust and China -Trouble did`nt hurt/spoil the Chart.