Hey Adam,

Speaking of regeneration, what about regenerating a new poll?   

Whether you describe upward price projection as a bubble or as a series of bubbles, past performance of rhyming of patterns does NOT indicate that the future performance patterns are going to follow similarly.... though there is some eeriness to the similarity of the bubble patterns.

Oh yeah, and by the way, it seems that description of bubble has various negative connotations, even suggesting that bitcoin is a short-lived phenomenon... which really does NOT seem to be the case.

And frequently, if we look at a bubble pattern, described in Anatomy of a Bubble, some people will question whether the anatomy applies to bitcoin, and if it does, then where exactly is the current status of bitcoin on the bubble chart.  Much easier to look back historically than to project ahead, and it is even more difficult to project ahead with bitcoin if you are assuming bitcoin is a bubble or incorporating ideas that the current status of bitcoin is that it was in a bubble.  On the other hand, if you are projecting that a bitcoin bubble is coming, then your predictive results will be more likely to take place, in my thinking.

To me, it seems that Hyphymikey is referring to the overall trendline and its upward direction from bubble to bubble, and in that regard, Hyphymikey does NOT seem to be referring to the price pattern of any particular bubble resembling another but instead, he may be referring to the timeliness of when an investor or a HODLR could reasonably expect the next bubble to take place. 

We can use an overall trendline to see past performance and to gauge probabilities of another bubble occurring while at the same time realizing that there will likely exist some degree of variance between bubbles, in terms of their size, their intensity, their timing and/or even whether they are explosive or gradual.

Even though frequently posters will accuse other posters of being naive in their outlook (their optimism or pessimism) towards bitcoin; however, a large majority of us realize that the overall specifics of BTC price performance retains a considerable amount of variance.

Exactamente!!!

Thanks for that, and it probably remains fairly clear that I am mixing my mathematical concepts to make various points b/c I am NOT really very well studied in mathematical models (even though, frequently, I understand english and logic), and my point in bringing up both Metcalfe and exponential factor in one fell swoop was to indicate that the article that I was referring to in my earlier post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg7161808#msg7161808)  seemed to be deficient b/c it was talking about various mathematical concepts without discussing networking effect of bitcoin nor exponential growth dynamics that seem to be important in conceptualizing the growth of bitcoin.

One funny dynamic that i noticed is that frequently, when people begin to describe a pattern, then that pattern NO longer will take place.  It is like someone is relying on people expecting a pattern, and then manipulate to change the pattern...

Maybe that comment is too conspiratorial, but I have seen several proclamations of patterns... that do NOT always play out too well.

When Rpietila is talking about swing trading, he is referring to selling only on very large upwards price swings, and buying back at a lower point with those proceeds.

Even swing trading cannot be timed exactly, so for example Rpietila bought a lot of coins below $10 and below $100 (he claims to have more than 10K coins, which I have NO reason to doubt).  In November 2013, when the price spiked, beyond $600 per coins, Rptiela sold 2K coins (or something like that); however he regretted not waiting a bit longer.  In any event, when he began to sell at $600, BTC prices were well above the trend line, so it is really difficult to predict that the price is going to double again from there and so quickly.

Currently, the trend line is in dispute, and probably Rptiela will put the trend line in the $1200 or greater area, yet I am much more conservative, and I would put the trendline around $800 to $900.  In either case, if BTC prices quickly go into the $2,000 price arena, then neither of us disagrees that we are above the trendline, but each of us may conclude at a different point about when to sell and how much to sell.  Rptiela is NOT selling his whole stash, but only a percentage of it.. 10 to 20%.. and then hopefully buying back, but at the time of sale, he may have received much more than a 4-6x price growth. 

On the other hand, if prices only inch up for several months and even years, there may be some debate about whether the trendline has shifted or where exactly is the trendline, in order to know exactly when to swing trade.  Yet, if you hold a stash that has appreciated 4x or more, it would be prudent to rake some of those profits, and if your BTC stash has appreciated by 10x, you are in a much more solid position to take up to 20% of the stash as profits, and you would have taken out double what you had originally invested into it.



This swing trading is NOT typical day trading but still retains many of the prediction and analysis risks, but frequently, if you have bought fairly low and then there is a considerable appreciation in your BTC stash, then you can take various measures to take some of those profits and/or to reinvest some of those profits to increase your stash.  One problem with continuing to increase your stash and never taking profits is that if the asset goes completely belly up, then you will have NOTHING to show for all of the profits that you have made.  In that regard, it is very prudent to have a plan for taking profits.  My plan for taking profits begins at around the 4x level.... however, if I am paying some attention to BTC prices and movement and politics at the time that my stash reaches the 4x price range, then I may adjust  some of the specifics of my selling depending on what is going on in the BTC space at the time. 

Sometimes, it may be better to NOT engage at all (b/c any of us can easily predict wrongly b/c of the many factors including price manipulators), but just lay out a predetermined plan for taking out money at certain price points or to reinvest certain amounts of money at certain price points.

Surely we are in agreement about the larger the market cap the better, and the more difficult to manipulate as the price per BTC goes up.

I was thinking that the price per btc would need to be in the 50k to 100k arena to achieve fairly decent stability.  That would be around a 750Billion to 1.5 trillion market cap.

A $10K per BTC would put the market cap around $150 billion, which just does NOT seem large enough to avert considerable price manipulations.

In other words, it seems that for some time BTC is going to have considerable price manipulations, but the price manipulations will become more difficult with a larger market cap. 

With the proliferation of the dollar and some evil players have really enormous reserves of dollars, and while these dollars are still the standard and acceptable.. very evil manipulation can occur b/c some of these very large and evil players have so many dollars that they do NOT give a flying fuck about the dollars that they have (meaning that they will spend a lot of those dollars.. b/c they have so large a surplus) so long as they can prevent others from accumulating wealth.

My understanding is that the wall placer does NOT necessarily personally profit by participating in orders below the wall, but instead profits when s/he pulls the wall and then is able to cause considerable movement above the wall and the wall may have deterred some from placing orders above the wall.. and thus the wall placer is able to manipulate larger movement in BTC prices by removing the wall.... especially removing it in cases in which momentum is then created. 

I am sure that there are other ways to profit as well from such walls.. including causing the prices to move in the opposite direction for some time.

Though I am fairly good with logic and understanding various concepts that are presented with by using mathematical models.  Sometimes I do get lost by some of the detailed and technical math b/c I have NOT received formal training in various higher level mathematical concepts or problem solving.

Nonetheless, I do appreciate some of the principles of Metcalfe's law to the extent that it appears to be describing increased  value and exponential growth that is based on networking and adoption increasing which will cause a considerable amount of growth based on the sheer fact that 300 nodes is more than 100 times more valuable than 3... but these measurements of value do NOT need to be exact in order to understand the concept that increased adoption of bitcoin is going to bring considerably greater increases in value to bitcoin for some time to come, so long as the adoption continues to increase.. then there is going to be various rippling effects caused by that and increased utility and more willingness of individuals to pay more for the utility of the expanding network.

Don't get me wrong, I do appreciate the article, and that the article shares a perspective regarding bitcoin, and I do NOT really claim to understand all of the points of the article.

In that regard, other people may come to conclusions that differ from my perusing the article.

When I read claims in the article, such as, the Chinese BTC market does NOT affect the USD bitcoin market, I give less credibility to the article, and I feel less inclined to thoroughly read such articles in close detail.

Also, this particular article claims that bitcoin is NOT a safe haven for storing value, so in that regard, the article seems inadequately account for diversification of assets investing (which many more sophisticated investors are going to diversify their value storage to some extent, and consider probabilities of pay outs for various classes of investments). Bitcoin may be risky, but as a diversified asset, there seems to be considerable possibilities for storing value and for paying off.

The article does NOT really get into much of the dynamics of the affects of the political and the regulatory attempts and the difficulties and potential underlying hostilities that have existed with bitcoin b/c of the difficulties of governments and or other status quo institutions, such as banks, in controlling the peer to peer nature of bitcoin. In this regard, the article lacks discussion of the threats to the status quo regarding potential wealth redistribution that is posed by the existence of bitcoin (and other crypto currencies).

I find too much emphasis and attempt to emphasize mathematics to achieve validity of claims, when in fact the mathematics of the dynamics of bitcoin need to be taken with a grain of salt, given the other political and other human dynamics that are involved in markets that are NOT strictly predictable in mathematic terms....

NONETHELESS, I do appreciate some of the mathematical discussions that are involved with Metcalfe's law.. and Metcalfe's law predicts some of the exponential potential of bitcoin pricing and value and utility based on adoption and the networking effect causing exponential growth b/c of increased bitcoin adoption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law

I know several other participants in this thread are much more familiar than me about the significance of Metcalfe's law. 

Though the article makes some mentions of increased interest in bitcoin, the article does NOT really get into any kind of specific discussion of the impact of metcalfe's law or the networking effect on the dynamics of bitcoin.

Additionally, even though this particular article is published on 6/2/14, some of its graphs and claims seem to focus on the dynamics of the bitcoin market between September 2011 and February 2014, which causes me some hesitation about thoroughness of the claims, even though that period does cover most of bitcoin's life, so far.

 

Some of the posts like yours cause me to project that it is fairly probable that BTC prices will remain in the current $620 to $680 channel for a few weeks.... and the channel will narrow...  then it seems more likely that the break in BTC prices will be upwards, rather than downwards.

I am fairly bullish and all about bitcoin, and fairly skeptical about the monetary policy of the USA and other grand fiat currencies.

NONETHELESS, Bitcoin is NO where near ready to take over the world currency, payment system and storage of value.  In 5 to 10 years, that may be a different story.

Surely, the USD has been engaging in really dangerous tactics since about 2007 / 2008; however, I believe that the whole fiat system with a dominant USD or some amalgamation of dominant fiats is going to hold at least another 5 years.

Before I studied into Bitcoin (which would have been before November 2013 - coincidentally right after the October 2013, US government shut down), I was thinking that the US government can screw up and screw around for another 20-30 years before the whole system is going to be coming down upon it... and part of my reason for projecting such a timeline in my thinking was because I could NOT really envision any real and/or meaningful alternatives.  The USA Govt has the world by the knickers.

However, since I have been learning about bitcoin, I am thinking that the USA Govt timeline for manipulating the dollar and world systems is going to be more limited - maybe 5-10 years, depending upon the extent to which the USA govt can infiltrate, coopt and/or manipulate BTC.  There is going to likely be some of the infiltration, cooptation and manipulation of BTC taking place and/or being attempted in the coming years, and the question will be how long that infiltration, cooptation and manipulation can last and whether alternative cryptos will evolve in order to adjust to such infiltration, cooptation and manipulation.

In sum, Bitcoin is NOT ready this year, but in 5 years -ish, maybe.

Half of you is probably the most that any of us can take in any one sitting.....

And, your theory about the price going down seems far from founded.  The price has been floating between $620 and $680 for more than a week, and before that, we were in the 500s and 400s and 300s.  There are five weeks in a row of green weekly candles...   It seems that the prices could likely adjust downward for a week or two... but ultimately, even the better half of you probably realizes the direction of bitcoin prices.....   and that is.. UP.

Currently, I am thinking rocket could be delayed, but it is fairly certain to occur during 2014... likely prior to October, but NO surprise if it occurs earlier... just too much good news in bitcoin land, recently.

This current consolidation should NOT be hurting anything... and will likely make the upcoming surge to be more powerful, when it does take place.

You can tell that this picture is a feigned Chinese slumber method b/c Jorge is giving us the finger, while he is supposedly slumbering.

Now, you are talking!!!!   But NOT me... 

This constant discussion of $666 is pure nonsense and wasting valuable brain power... and attempts to achieve some kind of forced self-fulfilling view of the world. 

Likely, there are more meaningful ways to discuss BTC price dynamics, rather than repeating NONsense 666 numerology superstitions that are NOT even reflected in recent bitcoin prices with any kind of precision. 

In this regard, in essence for the past week or so, bitcoin prices on bitstamp have largely floated between $620 and $680, and in a fairly dynamic sense.  There have been periodic episodes within this timeframe that bitcoin prices have been in the $660 arena - however, mostly, BTC prices, during this time frame, have NOT gravitated towards 666.. and even if they had been in the $660 arena, so fucking what?  Who cares about this repeated theme of the $666 attraction?

Surely I like to have fun and everything, but isn't this 666 matter a little overplayed, and it seems like several of us, including myself by responding to the trending 666 topic, are wasting our brain processing power, to the extent that it exists, to be caught up in nonsense numerology random superstitions.

History NEVER repeats!    It rhymes.   

In any case, this sounds like a fairly bold prediction, in part b/c we are on the 5th green candle in a row.  There are about 8 more weeks between now and the 1st week of august, so he is predicting 11 out of 13 green candles.  Even though such a positive run is possible, especially given the general 6 month decline, yet sounds way too good to be true.