Interesting, until now no big dumper, unlike yesterday, when the drop was forced by repeated
dumps from 110 to 107. But if the big ones dump, those walls won't hold for long.

It will, very soon. Unfortunately it may drop below 100, which would be a real mess.

PS. I spotted a sudden drop of 3k BTC in sell orders. I'm not yet sure what it means.
PS2. And surge back again, more than 4k. People are repositioning their orders.

Bear fail, eh? Check the bid sum / ask sum again, then you may reconsider your opinion.
IMO we are going to have a major dump very soon, down to 101, maybe even back to double digits
if panic sale follows the dump. I moved my buy order from 101 to 96, just in case.

PS. I was wrong about the dump, the slide to 103 was slow and uneventful, followed by a trend reversal.

The market didn't get the memo yet, but we should be at 103 - 104, and instead we breached 107.

The market is slowly going down, the bid sum / ask sum is slowly going down, so unless a 'savior' buys some 3k BTC and reverses the trend,
we'll soon have a whale dump or panic sale, whichever comes first. The question is, will it stop at the 101 wall or not?

IMO it was a correction, but it's not complete. The bid sum / ask sum is still looking bad.
I guess it's possible to have another drop to 103, maybe 101.

There has been significant resistance above 110, until someone performs the daring move to 114 - 115, which is still possible.
After that, either we drop, or we climb to 130 and beyond (resistance is futile).

MtGox trade lag 9 minutes (and rising) right now, I can't even load the main page, this looks like another DDoS attack.

I believe it would be interesting to find out the total speculator mass, expressed in $ (or rather million $),
that are active in the gold, silver, currencies, other commodities, that might be interested to join the BTC ecosystem.
This way we should have a more reasonable estimate of the future prices. Some people like to dream about 10,000$
and more for 1 BTC, which would mean a market capitalization of 150 - 200 billion $ in 3 years, insane IMO.
IMO that's never going to happen, and a more reasonable and stable price 3 years from now would be around 1,000$.

Without the whale buyer to move the market up, we may be slowly going down for a while.
It's possible that the whale buyer does not want to buy above 100, so he may wait for the price to drop.

I vote that by the end of August 2013 the price will fall once below 100$ on MtGox.
That's after a bubble spike that may rise beyond 200$. And then it may rise above 100$ again.

PS. not related to the OT, but my activity is stuck at 56, for about 15 posts, that's strange, anyone can explain?

Well, yes, math fail, but my thought process was different. This last 'whale buy' was accompanied later by several 'dolphin buys' that
moved the market up significantly after the whale buy (didn't happen before). I expect this to happen again and stronger after the next whale buy.

IMO due to the discrepancy between the bid sum and ask sum, we should be already knocking at the 105 wall.
We are probably not there yet because there's still strong seller resistance above 102. Maybe tomorrow.

If during the next days the whale buyer (who seems to be resting today) will buy another 50k BTC up to 120$ (that's 28k + resistance),
the BTC for sale (in orders at least) on MtGox will drop below 40k, similar to the April bubble spike.

During the last 24h the ask sum has dropped by about 22k BTC. If this trend continues for 3-4 days,
we'll have a bubble spike at somewhere between 160$ and 230$ IMO (sounds crazy, I know).

As long as holding and trading BTC doesn't become a criminal offence, I doubt we have to worry about this.
Oops, it appears that's what the Thai have done. Insane for the common BTC holders IMO. Possibly related to their opium / heroin trading.

My theory too. It will be the mother of all dumps, because if we reach 120$, there will be about 100k BTC buy orders above 80$.
But I think there is still some time left until the giant dump, so today I'm 100% BTC. Ready to panic sell anytime though.

Well, that wasn't his only wrong prediction. In the mean time he probably bought all the BTC he afforded.

Point taken.

Without these whale buys we would be down to 80s or lower by now, so the general market theory may not be so accurate for MtGox right now.
I have a theory on what the buying whale is trying to achieve: he's depleting the BTC stash on MtGox badly, so the price will rise to 120,
and then he'll dump. That will be the mother of all dumps, the price will drop to 50s. Repeat.