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1961  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ryans log on: July 10, 2014, 05:43:23 PM
Have you tried to do the same for Chinese exchanges (OKcoin, Huobi)? They look bearisher than Bitstamp lately.
1962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will rise and everything else will die? on: July 09, 2014, 04:44:51 PM
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/pump-dump-know-signs-trading-altcoins/2014/07/09
1963  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2014, 09:27:16 AM
Small dumps on Huobi. As I said before, Chinese bagholders are getting impatient.
1964  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 08, 2014, 08:29:42 PM
I suggest Brazilians watching this game use more Xanax, alcohol, whatever it takes.  Sad
The alternative would be a rise in suicides, which I strongly disapprove of.
1965  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 08, 2014, 07:54:40 AM
Let's see if we can repeat June 12th.  Grin
1966  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2014, 08:00:28 PM
The point is that governments will stamp out crypto, like they got rid of BSCs, if they perceive that crypto is actually going to do what it was intended to do. 

Government can never completely eliminate currencies based on decentralized consensus blockchains.  They can only make it more difficult to trade this currency for their own currency, and vice versa.  If government pushes Bitcoin into a black market currency, it will still exist.  In fact, if the war on drugs is anything to judge by, a war on Bitcoin will only make it worth more.


Governments can't fully ban cryptos, I agree, but they can do the next worst thing, cut all funding to exchanges and make common people afraid to hold cryptos.
Until now, bitcoin priced was pumped up by fiat from small investors / speculators. To reach 5k$ bitcoin needs institutional investors, and a war on bitcoin would make this impossible.
So pray that bitcoin will be tolerated by governments (especially USA and EU) in the years to come, or else say hello to double digits.
1967  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: July 07, 2014, 07:50:50 PM
I wonder if oda.krell will post a bearish scenario. So far he was called a 'short-sighted perma-bear' for being rationally bullish.
If he posts a bearish analysis he may be called a 'bear troll'!  Cheesy Seriously, there are reasons to look at the bearish scenario:
- the uptrend above 600$ (since 26th May) was pumped with $ swaps on BFX and the loans have since ballooned to almost 30M$.
- the uptrend was helped by a (temporary?) removal of BTC from the market, possibly used to pump certain altcoins.
- the Chinese bagholders are getting impatient, and just the lack of new FUD prevents some serious dumping.
1968  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2014, 03:12:25 PM
so next bubble will be lead by terrorists buying all the coins?

No, by the NSA buying all the available bitcoins, so the terrorists can't get any.  Tongue
1969  Economy / Speculation / Re: ISIS terrorists Says Bitcoin Could Be Used For ‘Global Jihad on: July 07, 2014, 01:45:35 PM
Time to dump Mohammed porn in the blockchain?

That's a good idea, with respect to Islamic terrorism. Anything that would be considered offensive by the fanatical Muslims would do,
like some Mohammed cartoons which angered millions of Muslims in several countries a couple of years ago.
OTOH this could deter adoption by non-fanatical Muslims too, so benefits and drawbacks must be weighted first.

PS. I quoted a post that got deleted very soon...
1970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2014, 07:54:38 AM
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-chart-analysis-market-critical-juncture/2014/07/07
1971  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 06, 2014, 08:14:46 PM
Was that action on CampBX an API glitch? Or did somebody exploit the trade engine in some way? Pretty sure no one bought it up to $10k. But maybe they wanted to paint the chart that way. Tongue

Was only 100 coins.

It was ~ 132 from looking at Wisdom. That's likely well over a million bucks on a 132 coins. And CampBX is now offline. Roll Eyes My guess -- someone found an exploit, bought all the coins on the book with fake USD, then made off with as much as they could from the hot wallet.

That would make sense, if the hackers managed to give themselves plenty of fiat IOUs and there was no one to supervise the withdrawal from the hot wallet (it's Sunday).
1972  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: July 06, 2014, 07:21:37 PM
The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
1973  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 06, 2014, 07:17:05 PM
So.... what's the next bad news going to be about?

Some exchange being hacked/closed? China ban part VIII? FBI dumping 100k coins? Gox finally launching midas?

If I were the CEO of a Chinese exchange and the PBoC would shut my business down for good, I'd be very tempted
to take a flight to South America, and have some nice paper wallets in my hand luggage.
1974  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox reclaim procedure? on: July 06, 2014, 03:11:15 PM
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/outrage-bitcoin-exchange-mt-gox-expenses-creditors-prepare-fly-japan/2014/07/06
1975  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market Doesn't Look to Hold Above $6.00 on: July 06, 2014, 12:39:20 PM
Holy necro! Smoothie was a bear and Proudhon rather bullish back then.  Shocked
1976  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who will mine the last Bitcoin? on: July 06, 2014, 12:35:48 PM
Silly thread, but with a simple answer: nobody, it won't be worth mining.

It actually will be worth mining, but only because it will be accompanied by a nice bunch of transaction fees.

Bitcoin is the dinosaur of cryptos, and it took just a few years for alternative cryptos to develop.
These better cryptos will challenge bitcoin during the next years, bitcoin only has inertia and a cult following to delay the inevitable.
Eventually bitcoin will be replaced, and believing that bitcoin will still have a significant position in 2040, let alone in 2140, is wishful thinking.
1977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 06, 2014, 10:51:57 AM
i think we could still be in a bear market, but mid-term, think we're still gonna see 700+. maybe 800. then we'll see. but i think we launch soon.

Bear market and reaching 800 soon are incompatible. The market has reached a turning point, has to decide if it's still in wave C or in wave 1, but low volume makes this take longer.
1978  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2014, 04:34:24 PM
My Birman tomcat has a gut feeling that Chinese bagholders are getting impatient.
1979  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2014, 05:03:05 PM
...
adam logic: if 1 million poeple buy 12$ worth of bitcoin all at once, bears are DOOMED!

I don't think so. A 12M$ sudden buy spread over all exchanges may secure the uptrend and repel the fear of capitulation.
Or maybe not: from the 25th May it took a 12M$ increase in $ swaps on BFX to raise above 600$ and sustain this range.
1980  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Is there any safe haven in altcoins? on: July 04, 2014, 03:14:00 PM
Now that we have a correction in BTC - are the other alt coins also falling - or are there some going up?

It looks like LTC yesterday got a really bad melt-down - do you guys think this was a bottom?

LTC bottom still far away IMO. There wasn't enough volume for the true bottom.
And BTC that were used to pump altcoins are now returning to the BTC / fiat market.
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