You must really wuv ur lil selfie, Torque.  


 

You will keep citing how correct and wonderful you are, until all of a sudden you will go silent..

 

You still seem to thinking about the whole matter incorrectly.

Of course, MSTR and Saylor have a pretty good sized amount of their networth in bitcoin, but they still made a purposeful play (or several purposeful) plays in terms of how much of their assets (reserve cash) they were going to allocate to bitcoin, and in the beginning they had decided a percentage.. but then increasingly started to increase their percentage and also to use leverage... and it's not clear if the money from this purchase mostly came from excess cashflow (and therefore reserves) or if they were leveraging in some kind of a way by using more debt (which Saylor and MSTR do not seem to have any opposition to using various kinds of debt - and even creative debt instruments).


Saylor has become one of the more openly transparent persons about his (and his company's) plans regarding bitcoin, so there is no need for you to blindly speculate, unless you might be taking from some thing that he has said on the topic, and mostly many of us know (or anyone who has listened to/seen Saylor in an interview), he is planning on hanging onto the bitcoin forever.. and even to keep building his bitcoin holdings, so his actions seem to be largely consistent with his words.

Another thing is that it might be reasonable to believe that he might be exaggerating his plan a little bit because he is not locked into "holding his bitcoin forever," but it also still seems better to at least have some kind of a clue regarding what Saylor is saying rather than just speculating.. so maybe you should go listen to some Saylor talks or research into the matter a wee bit MOAR better, arallmuus.  Saylor does not seem to be secretive in terms of his statements about having ongoing bitcoin stackening goals.

Of course, everyone gets a little bit cocky and smug when their BTC holdings are in profits, yet it seems to me that $35k is not going to be much of a thing for Saylor (it's only in the ballpark of 20% profits), and he is likely expecting that his BTC holdings will end up being in multiple profits in the years to come - and even those kinds of multiple profits does not end up happening in the short-term, BTC likely has good chances of outperforming many (if not all other assets), so bitcoin remains a good bet with upside potential that is not guaranteed even while it really does not matter very much about where bitcoin is at in the short term since bitcoin is a long term investment in which we likely don't need to get really preoccupied regarding the amount of our dollar profits (even though surely it does feel better to be in profits rather than not being in profits).

Well, let's say that you came to bitcoin in 2018 (so 5 years ago)--- and between 2018 and now you were able to accumulate 4.5 BTC for an average price of around $10,000.... so you could have various price points in which you sell those BTC in 2023 (or maybe at some future date), and if you sell all of your BTC, you may well end up struggling to figure out how to get them back.  Whether you are able to buy back your BTC at the price that you sold them might be another question... and whether you are able to invest the value of those sold BTC into something that is equal to or better than BTC is still another question that you will face with levels of uncertainty.

Well.. usually at any given time, a person is going to be on one side of the trade.. they are looking to buy BTC and they might be shopping around for options or contacting people or looking at registering on an exchange, and if they have a BATM available then they might look at the prices (including fees) and decide if that might be a good option for them.

At some later point down the road, they might be interested in selling, and they may or may not be in the same location.. .whether they need cash or if they might want to purchase something that is not being sold in BTC.


Sure, you have suggested that Bitcoin does not need to be accepted as legal tender in order for people (and/or businesses) to decide to transact in it, and the extent to which local regimes are hostile to bitcoin, then the transactions may or may not be able to be done openly or maybe they have to be done secretively.  It seems that even regimes who crack down on an activity may well not be successful in discouraging everyone from engaging in such activity.. including something like money or bitcoin that has already been built to be resilient to governmental (and other kinds of) attacks.. and sure, the attacks still might take place, but people also might decide to go underground with their activities, or even further tools can end up being developed so that people might still choose to transact in bitcoin - and surely we are at a state in which there is some governmental interest in clamping down on bitcoin, but governments are made of people and people do not always agree on policy directions including that there might be some friendliness towards bitcoin, and we are witnessing those kinds of disparate government policies and practices in current times.

I recall reading a post (or maybe it was a thread?) by Rpietila in which he was concerned that he had sold too many BTC in the $600-ish territory during the 2013 price run.. and those kinds of things can surely happen, even when someone has a pretty decent selling plan that is mostly meant to be incremental selling on the way up rather than selling everything and then regretting it.

We have had examples of folks who sold everything on the way up because they thought that the price was going to come back down, and then they became bitter because the price did not come back down, and they thereafter decided to get out of bitcoin completely and be bitter about the whole matter - and surely some of those bitter people will end up coming back into bitcoin, and likely at a much higher price.. and whether they are able to recover from their own past gambling behaviors (that seem to play all or nothing behaviors - and tends to be worse incrementalism type strategies), is still to be seen and likely to vary since the details of people tend to be different and people tend to handle their finances and psychology in different ways too.

There do not need to be higher fees, and there had been some B ATMs that had been set up in such a way that they try to maintain balance in order that they do not have to be serviced as frequently. So if the machine has a shortage of cash, then they would have lower fees for buyers, and if the machine has excess cash, then they would have lower fees for sellers.

But, yeah, BATMs are likely to attract less usage, if people perceive that they have other (and even better) options in regards to fees - and fees would not be the ONLY factor.. but surely KYC and even some of the security concerns of going to a BATM, then there is some element of potentially being known, found out or even followed (so various costs/risks to account for rather than merely accounting for fees).


You are not being imaginative enough tjtonmoy.

Someone traveling might want to get local cash, and a B ATM could give them a potential option... does not mean it is the best option, but it becomes an additional option if it is available.

Another case, someone might want to buy BTC, but they do not have or want to create a CEX account.  BATM gives them an option... and there may or may not be KYC, depending on the amount transacted and depending on the jurisdiction.

Sure there may well be "rouge BATMs" especially in the earlier days of bitcoin, but many countries (or even local governments) are going to have rules about some of those kinds of operations, so there could be some rouge-ness, but if they find out about some activities happening (such as BATMs), they might crack down on them, even if they might not have had any previous rules agains them, they might choose to crack down on them based on "concerns" that are reported.  Difficult to be decentralized when there is a physical device - and yeah there likely are some operating in obscure locations - but they would be difficult to find out about or do you want to go to the basement of "Johnny's bar" to conduct your BATM transaction?  Maybe your ok with that as long as you know and trust Johnny or someone who had referred yo to such private BATM... and meet-ups can be similar in terms of finding someone to conduct a direct transaction, there might be some level of trust - or maybe preference to meet in public in order to feel less vulnerable in regards to certain kinds of attacks that might end up happening.

For those selling on the way up, I would also consider selling smaller amounts, and never going 100% fiat (which means never going completely out of BTC), even if there might be some who will choose to sell large amounts of their BTC on the way up.

My own personal strategy is to sell ONLY a small percent for each time that the BTC price goes up (so I am selling even less than .5% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.. .. even though there are some folks who have recommended selling 10% for every 100% that the BTC price goes up, such as in:

Rpietila's (Risto) 2013 Thread entitled:  (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

Please note that even rpietila was talking about starting to sell BTC once the BTC price had already gone up several times (past a certain threshold), and in that thread he was also recommending to never sell his whole BTC stash (even though I am not sure if he completely stuck with some of his suggested strategies and he turned out to be a scammer and he had his own personal drama issues.... too..  RIP).

It is difficult to know what is meant by considering bitcoin as a "disaster" or a "calamity" - since there are some folks who might not know how to consider their risk and/or to attempt to manage their exposure to an asset such as bitcoin in accordance with their own particular circumstances - because bitcoin could be a disaster/calamity for any of us if we end up over investing or even under investing.  If we overinvest and then we leave our bitcoin with third parties or we try to earn yield off of our bitcoin, we may well find ourselves with way less bitcoin than we thought that we had or that we have some or all of our bitcoin locked up (bankruptcy proceedings or whatever).

Of course, the under-investor may well not really know about bitcoin and is viewing bitcoin from the outside or even sometimes viewing various points that s/he could have gotten in and then gotten out and made a killing (in terms of dollars), and there could even be some recognition that those people who are holding bitcoin for long periods of time seem to have a lot more options based on their bitcoin having had gone up in value many times greater than the amount that had been investing, and even accounting for the rises in the cost of living, many of the longer term bitcoin holders are way better off than those people who had chosen not to invest into bitcoin.  It would be difficult to measure the progress from the outside like that, and even people who hold bitcoin will sometimes not be sure about how much to measure whether they are better off by holding bitcoin or not - and part of the difficulties can be that even longer term bitcoin HODLers might sometimes get caught up in more complicated (perhaps overly complicated) strategies of trading or even messing around with shitcoins.

It seems to me that we do not necessarily have to have any exactly straight-forward process in which we accumulate BTC, but we will be complicating matters if we consider selling as a mechanism to use in order to try to buy back more BTC, rather than merely focusing on accumulating through techniques of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing... so in the first few years, it might be difficult to measure if we are in profits (or how much we might be in profits), and being in profits is not even guaranteed, even after a few years; however, it does seem that the longer that we stick with accumulating BTC (without selling BTC - except maybe sell and replace if we might want to transact in BTC from time to time), then we should be able to more greatly see progress in our holdings and less fear about our bitcoin that would otherwise contribute towards us being afraid of our investment resulting in disaster or calamity.. which also could happen if we are investing more into bitcoin than we can afford to lose, then we will be contributing to our own additional stresses about our ongoing bitcoin investment (and hopefully continuing to build our bitcoin stack with the passage of time and privately securing our most, if not all of our BTC stash rather than holding it with third parties at any higher levels than de minimus or in small quantities for utility purposes).

Another thing is that if we continue to look at bitcoin with the passage of time, we can see that the bitcoin price bottoms continue to move up, and so yeah we can get mixed up with looking at bottoms and tops or even getting maniacally focused on tops (or when the next top might come), but we would likely be much better off to be considering how the bitcoin bottom continues to move up, even if sometimes it seems to take a decent amount of time for the bottom to move up, but looking at any long term price chart, we should be able to pick out dates (even annually any date) and then track such dates though time to see that the bottom of the bitcoin prices have continued to go up.. and even though that is not guaranteed, it does seem to be a much stronger measuring point in order to recognize that bitcoin is likely not nearly as disastrous or calamitous as some people might consider it to be..

The one that I have been running on my MacOs is called "Trezor Suite".. and it is version 23.5.2 (23.5.2.28476) -  I update it from time to time when prompted by the App.. which does sometimes make me uncomfortable to be updating it upon prompt.... but I don't recall seeing (or using) a "Trezor Suite Lite" app from them, even though it does seem that they had changed their name - or was it just a change from the bridge extension that previously had run through Chrome OS over to the separate "Trezor Suite" App (which would have been around a year ago)?  There was a point in which you could use either the app or the Chrome extension, but it has probably been around a year since I had even tried to use anything other than the "Trezor Suite" app...

Does that significantly change your argument?  Instead of having 86% of bitcoin HODLers not moving their coins, instead you have 76% or maybe 66%?

How much does that contribute to your argument in which the liquid supply of bitcoin that is moving around is still a minority of the available coins - even though surely I can see the difference between 86% and 66%, if that were a realistic change in the numbers.



Yes.. I was going to make a similar kind of commentary to Out of mind...   which would be that 1% to 10%  ($270 million to $2.7 trillion) would be feasible for these kinds of institutions to invest into bitcoin if they were really putting their money where their mouths are (or at least in terms of recommending that clients allocate in that kind of a 1% to 10% kind of a way), even if the funds might be restricted to how much they can recommend in regards to certain kinds of non-traditional assets (including something like bitcoin) whcih might be the lower numbers,

....and even though I recommend individuals (newbies, lowcoiners or no coiners) to consider getting the fuck off of zero with an allocation into bitcoin of anywhere between 1% to 25% to start with, and of course, each person has to figure out the specific number / percentage out for their lil selfies... including taking responsibility for the number that they choose - which could be on the more aggressive side (such as 25%) if they are really bullish about bitcoin or even on the more whimpy side and closer to 1% if they are a more scared lil cat.. while at the same time, individuals (aka normies) also have to figure out their discretionary budget, and if they even have enough income that they are able to invest into anything (whether bitcoin or anything else) without devolving into gambling practices... .

...so institutions do NOT have the ability to be anywhere as close to the level of aggressive as individuals (when it comes to percentages that that they might be able to allocate into bitcoin or to recommend that their clients allocate into bitcoin)..... one of the reasons that individuals are so easy to front load institutions and even rich twats who might only feel that they are able to invest through something like an ETF rather than merely buying bitcoin directly (which is surely better for people to own the direct underlying asset, even though some folks are restricted in the ways that they can use some of their investment funds - namely investment funds that might have access to something like an ETF - but not legally allowed to buy bitcoin directly).

That's a very cornie expression....


I have issues with these various theories about "manipulation," and sure bigger players might be able to play their hands better, and they might even have some abilities to get access to insider information (or perhaps even see how the markets might move with their own deployment of capital); however, most people still have to figure out their own strategies, including figuring out how much they are even going to enter into the game.

And, yeah, maybe we (the three of us) are saying similar things, but still I get senses of futility coming out of both of you (Gachapin and Richy_T).. or at least you seem to be somewhat heavily subscribing to ideas that the cards are stacked against the little guy... and maybe that is somewhat true, but not so much with bitcoin.  Bitcoin is and has been an investment in which the little guy (retail) have been able to front run the BIGGER players, and since we are still early (believe it or not), the little guy (retail) can still front run the BIGGER players.. even if s/he is a newbie no coiner or a low coiner - who might be in the earlier stages of building the size of his/her bitcoin stash.

So who cares whatever the supposed manipulators are doing and their various strategies, the little guy (retail) can figure out his own situation and attempt to be as aggressive as he feels (believes) that s/he is capable of being in terms of stacking sats without getting reckt.. and the information is already available to him/her.. stack as many sats as you can, and likely in 4-10 years (or maybe a little longer) you will be in a much better place.. so long as you have been mostly focused on accumulating through various buying strategies, such as DCA, buying on dips and lump sum buying, and don't be fucking around with selling as an accumulation strategy, until you are well into profits and until you are largely over invested in bitcoin.. and ONLY you can figure out those various thresholds.. perhaps practicing and studying along the way, and don't get too worked up or worried if their might be some folks (such as BIG players) who you believe that might be doing better than you, when in fact, since you are still early, there are a lot of players, including BIG players who still have little to no clue about the idea of building a bitcoin portfolio and aggressively stacking sats.

Well if you started investing in bitcoin in 2015, and you bought $25k worth of bitcoin, you might have been able to get 100 bitcoin ($250 each), and if you cashed out at various points along the way, then you could have lived your best life, but you would jnot have shit to show for it.. Maybe you would still maintain $25k invested into bitcoin?  Perhaps?  And just cashed out profits?

On the other hand, if you had held onto those BTC, then right now 100 BTC would be worth in the ballpark of $3 million, and you would have a lot more options, rather than your having had been thinking so short term and cashing out on one of the best (if not the best) investments of our time.    In other words, it does not seem to be so smart to be fucking around with taking too many profits too soon, at least until you might get to a BTC accumulation arena that your BTC might really be delivering you value and options, and you might not even need to cash out very many (once you have given them opportunties to compound upon themselves and to build value, such as in the example of accumulating 100 BTC with a purchasing  value in the arena of $25k.


Of course $100k is possible in 2023 and it is also possible in 2024...

Is it probable?  Well, that's another question.  And sure, weigh the odds and try to figure out a strategy that works for you.  Hopefully, you are not so bearish that you fail/refuse to adequately prepare for UP, even if you believe it to not be very probable (impossible, in your words.. which seems like an in adequate financial and psychological preparation for unlikely things that do tend to happen in bitcoin, and still are likely to continue to happen in the future - even if such improbable things do not have high odds of happening.).

Regarding my own experiences in using a bitcoin ATM, I have ONLY done it once (or at least a few times at one location) -, even though I frequently look out for Bitcoin ATMs in order that I can verify if they are actually working and maybe to try to figure out what the fees might be.

I remember many times when I was in Los Angeles between 2015 or 2016 and 2019, I would interact with other bitcoiners and they would tell me about their ATM experiences, and surely the fees varied, and even their comments about the uptime varied, but I never did visit one of those machines myself. 

When I was traveling in Mexico in early 2021, I purposefully was searching for ways that I might be able to sell some bitcoin and to get some local cash.. so I spent a lot of time trying to find Bitcoin ATM machines that were open.. and there were some issues, at that time because the pandemic was going on.

I recall looking for Bitcoin ATMs in various locations, but it seems to me that only one of the 5-6 machines that I actually found was working for withdrawals (selling BTC).  I found some machines that were completely shut down, and some that were shut down only for withdrawals but were available for buying BTC.

The one machine that I was able to withdraw was at a Cafe called The Bitcoin Embassy in Mexico City.  They required that the bitcoin gets sent from a compatible wallet (which they told me was Coinomi), so I had to come back after I had loaded a Coinomi wallet, and then they had a max per transaction and a max per day, so I had to do 2 transactions each day that I went there in order to reach the daily max.. , and the only verification that I did was to provide a phone number (which I am not sure if there is a need that the phone number is a KYC phone number).   I recall that the fees were pretty reasonable.. something like 2 or 3%.. so I was not complaining abut the fees.  Each time, I did have to wait for 3 confirmations before they would release the fiat to me (Mexican Peso), which was something like an hour wait each time..

Ultimately, it seems to me that there is going to be a decent amount of variance in terms of fees and in terms of availability of these kinds of BTC ATM options, and it also seems that if there are desires to make the machines competitive, then they do need to attract customers, and if there are more machines, then their fees would likely go down.. or if there might be other ways that people are just skipping the use of machines and then just interacting directly peer to peer.. but a tourist might not have those kinds of possibilities, and even a local person might be limited in the number of folks who might be willing to transact with him/her to buy or sell BTC.  It's good to have options - but through the years, the kinds of options that might be available are likely continuously changing and they will also vary based on geography (being in a city or rural, or whether you know people in the area or have ways of meeting people, like if there were bitcoin meetups.. which is also not very common in most smaller cities - even if some bigger cities might have bitcoin meetups - but that is not even guaranteed - even the governmental/regulatory atmosphere might be hostile to bitcoin).

Once you have bitcoin, then no one can stop you from using it for peer to peer transactions, and they may or may not be able to verify that you had used it in such a peer to peer transaction.

Of course, if you live in a country (jurisdiction) in which it is illegal to transact in bitcoin, then you need to account for the various possible risks of getting caught in such an activity that is legally prohibited...

It seems to me that one of the concerns that a lot of normies have is that there may well be limits in which many or most if not all would not want someone to tell them whether they can engage in such activity or not - which includes the ability to communicate with others (of your own choosing) and also being able to transact value with others of your own choosing with modes of transaction that are of your own choosing...
so whether or not those kinds of laws are just or enforceable could surely be subject to pretty rigorous debate - and the answer would not be clear about whether certain kinds of your interactions should be controlled (even if it could be controlled).  Bitcoin does seems to scare people who would like to be able to control your behaviors in some of the kinds of ways that seem to be overreaching, even if some of those same people may well claim that they are "doing it for your own good" or "doing it for some kind of a socially acceptable/justifiable reason."

The FUD is that the price of dee cornz does not always go up in a straight line.   

Yes... and your wanting to get excited about trying to figure out the short term price moves of bitcoin seems to be part of my point.  It's a fruitless endeavor that seems to under-appreciate the long term value of bitcoin.

What are you going to do if bitcoin goes up to $100k in 2024?  Sell your bitcoin?  What are you going to do if it ONLY goes up to $40k or 60k in 2024?  Are you still selling? 

What if it goes down between now and 2024?  Do you have a plan for that?

How about if bitcoin goes up to $1million in 2024?  do you have a plan for that? 

Do you consider $1million to be possible in 2024?

Part of my point is that you should have a plan for all of these kinds of scenarios, and other variations of similar scenarios - rather than maniacally focusing on some kind of a narrow price and time, which in this thread has been deemed to be $100k by 2024 (whether or not it will happen and/or how likely it is to happen). 


Yes.. bitcoin might not go up in that time frame.  Then what are you going to do?  or it might overshoot, then what? 

Are you prepared for a variety of scenarios, and how much does your plan changed based on what scenarios play out?  or are you just playing it by ear and continuously trying to figure out what to do?  You sell some when it goes up and then it keeps going up so then you buy some, is that right?


And what if it doesn't?  What's your plan?


Several times, I have mentioned several of the important individual factors that individuals should be considering in terms of the ways that they invest in bitcoin, and view of what the price will do is ONLY one of the factors.  So, do you have your other factors already figured out.

Here they are:
   >>>>>you should be attempting to consider your cashflow, how much bitcoin you have already accumulated, your other investments (including cash reserves), your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.<<<<<<


 It's volatile in both directions, no?


I agree with this part.. even though I don't know why you are getting caught up with the $120k price... Yes, there are good chances that bitcoin is going to well exceed $120k in the coming 3 months to 5 years.. but what if it does not?  I don't have any problem with the idea of plotting out various numbers and various scenarios, but I do find it problematic to get caught up upon specific numbers.. because it comes off as if you are not really planning for a variety of scenarios that might happen, including that your $120k number might not happen in 5 years and it might not even happen in 10 years... So then what do you do?  Do you have any better way of talking about whatever it is that you are doing with your bitcoin, if that's what you are wanting to do?  or maybe you are thinking that it is a good idea to talk about the topic in the same way as OP - merely because OP presented this topic in a superficial and incomplete way, as hypothesizing how likely it would be that BTC would be $100k in 2024.

You don't understand bitcoin, if you believe that there is a maximum.

However, for sure there are not guarantees, either.

Part of the idea of an asymmetric bet is that if you place a certain value into it, without leveraging (or overdoing it), then the most is that you could lose is the value that you put in, but you have a variety of possible upsides.. that can be measured in terms of both time and in terms of price... whether you create some kind of an arbitrary selection of $100k by 2024 or if you choose some other time and price...

......and if you are trying to get super specific in regards to trying to predict time and price then you are likely considering the matter wrongly, and maybe if you realize that UP is directionally correct, and if your investment timeline might be 4-10 years or more, then likely it is merely a matter of "how much UP" ends up happening in the time frame that you want to be into bitcoin, and you likely are not going to necessarily know specifics, even though surely once you are in profits (again not guaranteed), then you have freedoms to cash out how much you want in the time increments that you like - and in that regard, your choice to invest into bitcoin has given you more options rather than fewer options (in the event that you had not chosen to invest).

Accordingly, if we realize that bitcoin's direction is likely up, it should not matter too much if BTC prices go up 6% per year, 20% per year, 100% per year, 200% per year or some other number, and surely anyone investing into bitcoin prefers bitcoin to go up more rather than less per year (and we would also like bitcoin to beat inflation and perhaps the performance of competitive asset classes), but we cannot really know, except for that the odds seem pretty decent that bitcoin is going to continue to be biased towards up (in the longer term), and that there is likely going to be a lot of volatility along the way (one of the most inevitable characteristics of bitcoin seems to be its volatility - but otherwise not exactly predictable in pinpointing terms beyond having a kind of hunch that it is likely to be directionally up, rather than down, or sideways).

Largely I agree with your idea that there should be some rules/expectations.. and I think that I agree with the overall sentiment of all of the rules that you proposed.. even though surely, I might be a little less rigid on some of the requirements, including maybe a bit looser on the definition of a pizza and perhaps allowing further down the line of membership.. maybe not full member but maybe a junior member with at least 10 merits (and maybe such forum member would have to be registered on the forum for at least a couple of months prior to the start of the contest).. at the time that the contest starts... maybe the same with voting (which a qualified voter would be established at the time that the contest starts, not at the time of the voting.. which we know comes later in time)...

Of course, even though I wanted to express my off-the-cuff opinions (reactions), I am not strongly wedded to them.. but instead, just thought that I should chime in (or that I wanted to chime in.. you know what I am trying to say?). 

Sure, the earlier that any of us get started, then the more likelihood that we can get our shit together and figure out some kind of a BTC investment (accumulation) strategy, and then to employ, learn and build upon such strategy. 

There is no guarantee that the BTC price is going up from here, and there is no reason to suggest that it is too late to buy bitcoin, even if the BTC price goes up to $40k or goes up to $100k.. the main issue that comes from buying on pumps is a likely need for a longer time horizon in order to feel more comfortable about being in profits, and it can take a decently long time for anyone to be in profits, so in that regard, I cannot really disagree with your suggestion that it might have been better to buy below $30k rather than above $30k.. but at the same time, no one can turn back the clock, and they have to start to buy/accumulate bitcoin from the place that they are at - rather than pondering about yesterday or contemplating if the price might go down.. so if they don't have any coin or they are low on bitcoin, then it is likely better that they get started sooner rather than later in terms of both figuring their strategy and starting to stack sats.