Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

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[Who is John Galt?]

Where's Putin?


https://www.yahoo.com/news/putins-plane-reportedly-departs-moscow-133300722.html


I have to think this news if true will help to spark a big rally. 103k in 2023 may be possible

Putin has several planes. He is often not in the capital, because he is extremely worried about his safety. So the fact that he probably left Moscow does not mean anything yet. And even if the rebel troops in Russia take over, this should not necessarily play in favor of the growth of the bitcoin rate.

Yeah it could be “Meet the new boss same as the old boss” by the who

Well time will tell.

Half a day ago, the rebels were in Rostov-on-Don, now there is information that they are already passing through the Lipetsk region. Events are developing quite quickly. I think we will see some results pretty soon. But so far, despite the fact that events are already underway, the bitcoin rate today does not react to this at all.



But you are right, time will tell.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Mr.corol]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1672226942173556736?t=xgG0cixZZz2dDxT9t32kHA&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

These bljatcoiners and this forum ...

Remember only Dead Fish swim with the Current.

Fuk Bljatcoin

[Biodom]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1672226942173556736?t=xgG0cixZZz2dDxT9t32kHA&s=19

Actually, the second spot indicated by an X was, indeed, the safest place to enter to achieve the most gains in the shortest period of time.
I remember Willy Woo also posting something along these lines. Granted, it was only about 4-5X, but in a short order and without sudden catastrophic plunges.
It was a great place for a small leverage, too. Sure, you could have bought at 6-7K (indicated by a start of the bull run), but if you did anything else, but a straight cash buy (no leverage), your position would have been eviscerated. We had one glaring example like this here-a mindtrust guy, who became "famous" for an aggressive accumulation between, maybe, 3k and 10K, and then selling all in panic at around 4-4.5K during the Covid crash. You might think that this kind of a sudden plunge would never occur again, and you could be right, but it is unknowable.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1672226942173556736?t=xgG0cixZZz2dDxT9t32kHA&s=19

Actually, the second spot indicated by an X was, indeed, the safest place to enter to achieve the most gains in the shortest period of time.
I remember Willy Woo also posting something along these lines. Granted, it was only about 4-5X, but in a short order and without sudden catastrophic plunges.
It was a great place for a small leverage, too. Sure, you could have bought at 6-7K (indicated by a start of the bull run), but if you did anything else, but a straight cash buy (no leverage), your position would have been eviscerated. We had one glaring example like this here-a mindtrust guy, who became "famous" for an aggressive accumulation between, maybe, 3k and 10K, and then selling all in panic at around 4-4.5K during the Covid crash. You might think that this kind of a sudden plunge would never occur again, and you could be right, but it is unknowable.

For someone looking for a quick gain that was definitely the best point, and the most risk-free.  But it's more obvious in hindsight.
PlanB made some more or less similar "trading rules" based on the previous cycles:

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf


But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1672226942173556736?t=xgG0cixZZz2dDxT9t32kHA&s=19

Actually, the second spot indicated by an X was, indeed, the safest place to enter to achieve the most gains in the shortest period of time.
I remember Willy Woo also posting something along these lines. Granted, it was only about 4-5X, but in a short order and without sudden catastrophic plunges.
It was a great place for a small leverage, too. Sure, you could have bought at 6-7K (indicated by a start of the bull run), but if you did anything else, but a straight cash buy (no leverage), your position would have been eviscerated. We had one glaring example like this here-a mindtrust guy, who became "famous" for an aggressive accumulation between, maybe, 3k and 10K, and then selling all in panic at around 4-4.5K during the Covid crash. You might think that this kind of a sudden plunge would never occur again, and you could be right, but it is unknowable.

For someone looking for a quick gain that was definitely the best point, and the most risk-free.  But it's more obvious in hindsight.
PlanB made some more or less similar "trading rules" based on the previous cycles:

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf


But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

Yes, nice find, but I would like to state the following:

"Any market trend rule, once publicly revealed, stops working."

Perhaps, there is a rule like this on the books, I don't know.
I would just call it a market prediction fallacy conjecture (MPFC).

As a result, i wouldn't count on that -6 to +18 rule as it could very well become a -10 to +14, which means the time is NOW.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf


But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

My rule 0 is someone has a better model than you unless this is something you do full-time and their gain will likely be your loss.

"Any market trend rule, once publicly revealed, stops working."

Indeed. Arthur C Clarke once wrote a story about a computer that was able to completely predict the market and, in doing so, eliminated all predictability (or something like that. It's been a while).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

Brilliant People 😁

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[FinePoine0]

Here are some facts about Bitcoin price prediction. Will Bitcoin Hit 41k in 2023?

Bitcoin's Short Term Price Prediction

Date       Avg Price          Lowest Price         Highest Price

25 Jun 2023  $28302.16   $26321.01     $30283.31

26 Jun 2023  $29474.71   $27411.48     $31537.94

27 Jun 2023  $30104.66   $27997.33     $32211.99

28 Jun 2023  $29944.88   $27848.73     $32041.02

3 Jul 2023     $30026.45   $27924.60   $32128.30

8 Jul 2023     $30261.11   $28142.83   $32379.38

18 Jul 2023   $30907.02   $28743.52   $33070.51

August 2023  $31917.24   $29683.03   $34151.44

September 2023   $32502.80   $30227.61   $34778.00

October 2023       $33088.37   $30772.18   $35404.56

November 2023   $33673.94   $31316.76   $36031.11

December 2023    $34259.50   $31861.34   $36657.67


Details: https://ambcrypto.com/predictions/bitcoin-price-prediction


According to this post I can say that the price of Bitcoin will increase greatly in 2023.  $36657×2=$73314 dollar is more likely to be touched in December.

2021 peak price was $69k so I long believe that in December 2023 Bitcoin price will pass the past price.
 And comparing the price of Bitcoin for the month of June gives the equation.
 In June the lowest price was $24,6k and now the current price of bitcoin touched $31,5k just recently (1-2 week) the price of bitcoin has gained about 15%.

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1672226942173556736?t=xgG0cixZZz2dDxT9t32kHA&s=19

Actually, the second spot indicated by an X was, indeed, the safest place to enter to achieve the most gains in the shortest period of time.
I remember Willy Woo also posting something along these lines. Granted, it was only about 4-5X, but in a short order and without sudden catastrophic plunges.
It was a great place for a small leverage, too. Sure, you could have bought at 6-7K (indicated by a start of the bull run), but if you did anything else, but a straight cash buy (no leverage), your position would have been eviscerated. We had one glaring example like this here-a mindtrust guy, who became "famous" for an aggressive accumulation between, maybe, 3k and 10K, and then selling all in panic at around 4-4.5K during the Covid crash. You might think that this kind of a sudden plunge would never occur again, and you could be right, but it is unknowable.

For someone looking for a quick gain that was definitely the best point, and the most risk-free.  But it's more obvious in hindsight.
PlanB made some more or less similar "trading rules" based on the previous cycles:

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf


But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

Yes, nice find, but I would like to state the following:

"Any market trend rule, once publicly revealed, stops working."

Perhaps, there is a rule like this on the books, I don't know.
I would just call it a market prediction fallacy conjecture (MPFC).

As a result, i wouldn't count on that -6 to +18 rule as it could very well become a -10 to +14, which means the time is NOW.

Yes I think about it the same way.
Actually, in light of the decreasing impact of the halvings, the timing of peaks and lows of this cycle being still similar to the previous cycles is almost a wonder to me ...
I guess it's because there are still enough new actors entering the market. As soon as most market participants know about the cycle history and behave accordingly, the cycles will probably break.  

I don't know when that will be so I won't try to time the market by expecting certain cycle movements.  Although, every bear I wanna kick myself in hindsight for not selling the tops.

But buy & hold served me well enough (actually very well).  It's lower risk and easy to handle.